Premiership & Nationwide early pre-season odds

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Premiership & Nationwide early pre-season odds - do you reckon the bookies (William Hill) have judged things right or are there some odds you reckon they have got all wrong?
My tips..Liverpool - Ipswich - Cardiff City - Hull City
How about an accumulator: Liverpool (Houlier surely can do it, this time? Liverpool are due a win - with the two Senegal players - this could be their year), Ipswich (too much quality will see Ipswich take the first division title by storm, Wolves always mess things up), Cardiff (firm favourites under an experienced manager - if lawrence had taken over a few games earlier they would have gone up automatically last season) and Hull (Molby got Swansea out of the basement, got Kiddy out of the Conference in one season - with the resources/new players/ new stadium/big city in comparative terms to the 3rd div/strong support at Hull - Molby at Hull will finish the season as champs)
Premiership
Manchester Utd 11/8
Arsenal 13/8
Liverpool 10/3
Leeds Utd 16/1
Chelsea 16/1
Newcastle Utd 28/1
Tottenham Hotspurs 80/1
Manchester City 100/1
Aston Villa 125/1
West Ham Utd 150/1
Fulham 150/1
Blackburn Rvrs. 150/1
Sunderland 200/1
Middlesbrough 200/1
Shitampton 250/1
Everton 250/1
Charlton Ath. 300/1
Bolton Wndrs 500/1
Birmingham City 750/1
West Bromwich Alb. 1000/1
Division One
Wolverhampton Wndrs 4/1
Ipswich Town 4/1
Derby County 5/1
Leicester City 10/1
Coventry City 12/1
Watford 14/1
Millwall 14/1
Preston N E 20/1
Portsmouth 20/1
Norwich City 20/1
Burnley 20/1
Wimbledon 22/1
Crystal Palace 22/1
Sheffield Utd 33/1
Reading 40/1
Nottm Forest 40/1
Sheffield Weds. 50/1
Brighton 50/1
Bradford City 50/1
Stoke City 66/1
Gillingham 66/1
Walsall 125/1
Rotherham Utd 125/1
Grimsby Town 125/1
Division Two
Cardiff City 11/4
Wigan Ath. 11/2
Huddersfield Town 10/1
Bristol City 11/1
Barnsley 11/1
Luton Town 12/1
Crewe Alex. 14/1
Tranmere Rvrs. 16/1
Stockport County 16/1
Queen's Park Rngrs 18/1
Brentford 18/1
Blackpool 18/1
Plymouth Arg. 20/1
Oldham Ath. 25/1
Wycombe Wndrs 28/1
Port Vale 28/1
Notts County 33/1
Swindon Town 40/1
Peterborough Utd 40/1
Cheltenham Town 40/1
Northampton 50/1
Mansfield Town 66/1
Colchester Utd 66/1
Chesterfield 66/1
Division Three
Rushden & Diamonds 6/1
Hull City 6/1
Wrexham 9/1
Rochdale 11/1
Hartlepool Utd 11/1
Bristol Rvrs. 12/1
Bournemouth 12/1
Scunthorpe Utd 14/1
York City 16/1
Oxford Utd 16/1
Kidderminster 16/1
Shrewsbury Town 18/1
Boston Utd 18/1
Darlington 20/1
Southend Utd 22/1
Cambridge Utd 22/1
Bury 22/1
Leyton Orient 25/1
Macclesfield 28/1
Swansea City 33/1
Exeter City 40/1
Carlisle Utd 50/1
Torquay Utd 66/1
Lincoln City 66/1

DJ Martian, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Re: the first division how can these two teams be the same odds?

Wimbledon 22/1

Crystal Palace 22/1

Wimbledon will struggle big time IMHO next year (playing at hockey stadium in Milton Keynes? with no support) and I reckon Crystal Palace will make the playoffs.

DJ Martian, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Jeez - talk about the gulf between the Prem elite and everyone else: the odds against *anyone* outside the Big Six winning the title are longer than against even the least fancied teams in the lower leagues winning their division.

Everton-Palace-Tranmere-Exeter = 3.5 million to one? That's worth 50p surely.

Michael Jones, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

i think there's a spelling mistake in there mate ;)

28/1 newcastle is ok

money to be had in the first div methinks, leicester will do solidly under mickey adams at 10/1 and stoke at 66/1?! have they not found a new manager yet? also plymouth and qpr are worth a shot.

re palace is a shambles, trevor francis is a terrible boss. will be sacked soon into season with team in relegation.

Bob Zemko, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Cobblers at 50/1? That's generous. Our entire squad now consists of 15 players, and we don't have a goalkeeper. Get in there...

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Newcastle's odds do look a touch generous, but I don't fancy them.

I'm a Bristol Rovers fan, and after our last-but-one showing last time, 12-1 is poor.

Martin Skidmore, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I'm off to put an each way bet on the Toon Army...

bert, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

haha bristol rovers thanks for olly!

Bob Zemko, Tuesday, 2 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I'd be tempted to have a pop on Tottenham Hotspurs.

PJ Miller, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I see that Graham Taylor is already working his magic at Villa. How come there are no ridiculous odds (West Brom 1000/1!) in the lower divisions?

PJ Miller, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

newcastles odds are a bit on the long side aren't they. might have a go on that

i reckon it'll be

man u
preston (a bit of an outside bet i know, it should be ipswich, but the first has a habit of disregarding 'should be')
huddersfield town
rushden & diamonds

gareth, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

interesting how leeds have dropped away from the front 3. wonder what the odds would have been before blarneyboy's departure?

gareth, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Why do you say Rushden, Gareth? Why are they joint favourites? Div. 3 looks as open (and likely to be as poor) as it has been in recent memory. I think Wrexham look fairly well placed to do well, but it's been a fair old while since a relegated club won the 3rd (Brentford in 97/98?).

Jonesy: surely worth some kind of e/w or yankee?

Mr. Miller: I think the divisions in the League *are* more even than the Premiership, but there's also the issue of where the money is being laid... the ratio of sums bet on ManU:West Brom is going to be much higher than R&D:Torquay.

Sorry if that doesn't make sense.

Tim, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

why rushden? well, consolidation after a good 1st season, and, of course, money. but i don't know much about division 3, so, i don't really know

perhaps rochdale are worth a punt at 11/1, after their good showing last year (i would say surprising, but, again, wouldn't really know)

gareth, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

yes, maybe rochdale, then all 4 division would be won by northern team (wasn't it quite recently that all 4 divs were won by manchester area teams?)

gareth, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Yes, 1996/7. ManU, Bolton, Bury, Wigan. Bless 'em. And bless soccerbase.com, although they've got this one wrong, heh.

Tim, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

It does make sense, Tim, after a fashion. For some reason I thought it was all worked out by William Hill's Giant Computer Brain. This also explains West Brom's sorry showing, as their supporters are miserable sods.

With regard to the PLCs, such as Leeds, does this kind of lack of confidence spill over into lack of investor confidence, or vice versa, or are they entirely unconnected? Who invests in football clubs, apart from loonies?

It seems like only five minutes since Rushden and Diamond were playing Gresley Rovers, as featured in my dad's telephone monologues.

PJ Miller, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Whi invests in football clubs? Well, anyone who 'invests' is a loony, cos they won't get a return. Watch that share price plummet. Investor cofidence has been low in football, and doesn't work in a straight line graph fashion across the game; Man Utd win the European Cup and their price went up. West Brom got promoted to the land of milk, honey and relegation, and it went down.

The only people who put money into football are supporters, for whom it's about owning a little piece of something you wuv.

I'm surprised the Cobblers aren't bottom of the pile to go down in Div 2. Dom right about the keeper, and we're about to be bought out by Arkan's best buddy and friend of Milosevic. Joy.

AFC Wimbledon to win the Combined Counties League would be a good one. Though a decent bookie will give short odds on it. And Wimblestein FC would be a good bet to go down - they'll be playing in front of three men and dog at a Hockey Stadium with one stand. They'll be re-arranging matches that clash with weddings at the Hockey Stadium (Kockpull hadn't thought of that aspect of the Hockey Stadium) and they got rid of their decent players at the fag end of last season. Big shame. Not.

Nathan Barley, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Confession: I've been reading a book called 'How to Read the Financial Pages', which may have coloured my view of the world. Even so, there was a suggestion the other day that Leeds had ousted O'Leary because of their duty to look after shareholders' concerns first, or at least a clash along the lines of shareholders/supporters had something to do with it, so in this case they can't be the same people, unless I've mis-gauged the popularity of O´Leary with Leeds supporters.

PJ Miller, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

There is a split; very few people are buying shares now aside from supporters, but many people are lumbered with ones they bought in football share mania in 1996 - mainly pension funds. They want out, but are waiting for the price to rise to recoup some of their money.

Simply put, there exist within a football club other pressures that are not common to businesses. To analogise, if Safeway increase their market share in the course of a year, but are still behind, say, Tesco in overall share, shareholders would still expect a dividend payment. The Board would recommend a dividend that balanced prudent investment to maintain the upward trend, whilst still using the profits declared to reward investors.

At a football club, different pressures apply. Singer and Friedlander coined the concept of 'fan equity' in 1997 to characterise this difference. They noted that the stakeholders in football - the supporters - applied a pressure upon clubs-companies that did not exist in other environments. Should Arsenal finish second to Manchester United in the league, a pressure exists to reinvest any profit in strengthening the team to challenge for first position the following year. Indeed, in the USA where a field of economics concentrating on sports clubs has been in existence for much longer than the UK, analysis indicates that only one club can rely on declaring a profit each year, and that is the overall champions in that sport. All those who finish below them reinvest any surplus and do not declare a profit. They offer higher wages to star performers, and tempt others from rivals with attractive renumeration packages. In short, sports economics operate to the maxim 'second is nowhere'.

Nathan Barley, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Chesterfield at 66/1?? a bit short but I'll have my usual fiver on it.

chris, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

http://www.football365shop.com/shop/product_detail.asp? ProductGroupID=1042&rid=1

I WANT THIS!!

chris, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

That is damn cool.

RickyT, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I'm all for that shirt. Oh yes.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 3 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Does anyone here know of a good source to find information on what pre-season friendly fixtures are happening and where?

Tim, Thursday, 11 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Barcelona are due to play Boca Juniors for the world-famous Gamper Trophy as part of the Juan Ramón Riquelme deal. Don't know when though.

PJ Miller, Thursday, 11 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I would bloody love to be at that game.

Tim, not sure about the fixtures thing but in the past the skysports one has been quite good, but I guess that is maoinly for the pemiership teams.

chris, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Ignore the skysports advice, it's being ruddish, but I'm checking a few others.

chris, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I had a friend called Rud once, so the idea of being Ruddish sounds pretty good to me.

Tim, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Tim - the Non-League Paper isn't bad for this - though it naturally only gives info if a non-league team plays...

Nathan Barley, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

I require this information to be delivered to me in electronic form.

Since you're here DB, any news on the "Boston situation"? Wonder if it's possible to get a bookie to give you odds on Boston being relegated next season?

Tim, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Spurs have got some crackers - Colchester, Bournemouth, Celtic and Lazio. And apparently Darren Anderton's testimonial to be confirmed - which I think is a little cheeky of him.

Jonnie, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

To answer my own question, the best source I've found is the 'Fixtures' section here.

Having said that, none of the fixtures listed catch my eye particularly.

Tim, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

that non-league paper is ace, we could use that for league sides too, very useful. Sutton Utd v Leicester City on the 16th anyone?

chris, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Tim - everyone's been quite quiet on the issue. Daggers are furious, natch. The league guy I spoke to had no idea what the outcome would be, as the offences are alledged to have occurred outside of the League's juridstiction. The interesting point is what happenes if they're prevented from coming up. The League might just have 91 teams / invite Halifax back instead of promoting Dagenham. Justice would demand Dagenham to replace them, but this is the league we're talking about...

Nathan Barley, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

what exactly is the boston situation? i know its something to do with the manager, whos now gone? whats actually happened?

gareth, Friday, 12 July 2002 00:00 (twenty-two years ago)

two months pass...
this thread should be kept running throughout the season, with the predictions and shit

gareth (gareth), Sunday, 15 September 2002 12:28 (twenty-two years ago)

three weeks pass...
I am a complete plank, i tipped both Ipswich and Hull to win their leagues. Which two managers have been sacked this week - George Burley and Jan Molby !

At least Pompey are tops at the mo in the first.

Whose next in line to be sacked for poor performance? Graham Taylor? Glenn Roeder?

DJ Martian (djmartian), Friday, 11 October 2002 12:08 (twenty-two years ago)

four months pass...
well, talk about wide of the mark! (and, really, wigan should have been picked in retrospect)

gareth (gareth), Tuesday, 4 March 2003 13:36 (twenty-two years ago)

I don't think Tim and I want to be thinking about this stuff. Nor Mark S, poss - Shrewsbury, not out of danger, visit Bristol Rovers (bottom but one) on Saturday, and Rovers really need a win.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Tuesday, 4 March 2003 18:23 (twenty-two years ago)

one month passes...
YES WE ARE PROMOTED

PORTSMOUTH !

DJ Martian (djmartian), Tuesday, 15 April 2003 19:43 (twenty-two years ago)

Congratulations dude! Good to see Redknapp vindicated. What do you think the odds are on you going straight back down?

Alex K (Alex K), Tuesday, 15 April 2003 19:47 (twenty-two years ago)

Congrats to Portsmouth, but you do indeed have work to do.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Tuesday, 15 April 2003 20:02 (twenty-two years ago)


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