Yet Another World Cup Poll: Since 1970 only 6 teams have reached the World Cup finals. 4 of them just earned spots in the quarterfinals.

remove 's' from 'finals' and it makes sense

end poll

oh because they all played in exactly the same game, I forgot

anyway answer my question

yes, the game that is called the World Cup Final

mods please retitle thread 'petty debate over uk vs us english'

mods please retitle thread 'lol iatee'

1974: Germany - Holland
1978: Argentina - Holland
1982: Italy - Germany
1986: Argentina - Germany
1990: Germany - Argentina
1994: Brazil - Italy
1998: France - Brazil
2002: Brazil - Germany
2006: Italy - France

remaining in competition: Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland

1970 was Brazil - Italy btw

I was thinking along these lines earlier, when it occurred that if England don't win the next one (which they won't) it'll be fifty-odd years since their one time in the final - i.e. the same distance from the first final to 1982, which is the first world cup I remember. And in 1982 the first final was impossibly ancient history.

Argentina and Holland have been phased out latterly - I expect the same to happen in the QFs and it to be a Germany - Brazil shootout

which would rule, if Germany could do it

It can be even more exclusive than that, because every final has had either Argentina, Brazil, Italy or Germany in it - exactly two-thirds of the 36 finalists have been those four countries.

Anyway, the question - a bit of an anomaly but basically makes sense, given how seriously everyone takes it. Ultimately big countries who play a lot of football and take it seriously should have a significant advantage, though I guess it's slightly strange that it correlates so exactly with success.

But it has always puzzled me how world cups can be full of shocks and there's nearly always a Turkey, Sweden, Belgium or Korea in the last four - but they never, ever manage to pull off a shock in the semi-finals.

Japan's time has come iirc

I do wish one of the little 'uns had actually gone and won the thing in the days when minnows could still reach finals - Hungary in 54 would be my choice. (I don't count Uruguay btw, they are moral giants. England, the jury's out.)

But it has always puzzled me how world cups can be full of shocks and there's nearly always a Turkey, Sweden, Belgium or Korea in the last four - but they never, ever manage to pull off a shock in the semi-finals.

I guess this question can be broken down to that - why has the semifinals been such a successful filter for the non-6? do they run out of steam, does the tournament structure work against them, or...basically just a coincidence?

There were no semi-finals in 74 or 78 iirc, so that might've got rid of Holland from your list too.

I had no idea they had a second group stage to determine who got to the final. That's insane.

1950 didn't even have a final!

1950 had the greatest of all finals, even if it was by accident

1950 had the greatest of all finals, even if it was by accident

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

ghana
uruguay
v
netherlands
brazil

germany
argentina
v
paraguay
spain

chances this trend continues? maybe 60%?

Japan's time has come iirc

― so you want Mark Ronson to cry into your ass (acoleuthic), Monday, June 28, 2010 6:26 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

more like jagpwn

60% seems about right. Winners of Holland-Brazil take the whole thing I reckon, though Holland will have to step it up a bit on Friday. Germany with the next-best chance.

60% seems like too much - Argentina/Germany have to beat Spain (surely only about 55% already, if that?), *and* Brazil have to beat Holland (likely but not certain).

Holland counts. I don't have much faith in Spain.

why has the semifinals been such a successful filter for the non-6?

Honestly no idea, and would really love to know. It's not like the semi-finals haven't been close, some have even gone to penalties - it's just that the established nation always, always wins.

By the way, France only became a member of the élite group through beating Croatia in 98 - i.e. the only semi-final during the last forty years between two non-elite nations. When France were non-elite before that, they fit the pattern too!

Oops yeah.

Re: 'why is the semi-finals such an effective filter', how many of sweden/korea/turkey actually beat one of these teams on the way, vs an England-in-'90/Ghana-2010 style run knocking off other surprise teams? I guess Korea beat Italy.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

wtg spain

That was the fifteenth semifinal between a former finalist and a non-finalist, and only the second time the non-finalist has won.