Oscars 2011 Long-range anticipation thread

don't want to get sucked into the bullshit this early, but i guess it's happened and there's no stopping it

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/09/oscar_futures_the_social_netwo.html
http://www.deadline.com/2010/09/big-fall-fest-whos-up-or-down-for-oscar/

like a presidential election, this anticipation shit gets earlier and earlier.

JLG not there, I'm not there

but The King's Speech vs The Social Network will be lol

just curious, given the Social Network jizzwagon -- has any film won Best Picture where the entire principal cast was under age 30?

(I can guess who will answer first)

Slumdog Millionaire?

what about Oscar winners whose script was written at an under-thirty level?

idk what that means

I guess Slumdog Millionaire qualifies, tho on the sixth-grade script level too

ok I just read about The King's Speech and have to say ARE U KIDDING ME?

all the characters with characters in titanic were kids, weren't they? apart from the framing device i guess.

king's speech trailer looks like shakespeare-in-love era miramax shit

I would consider Gloria Stuart, David Warner and Kathy Bates part of the Titanic principals.

I am aghast that J Timberlake is still just 29 when it seems like he's been plaguing us for a quarter-century.

I'd have thought you preferred his acting chops.

in your eyes he acts like a singer.

he wasn't terrible in that Richard Kelly movie even tho the part didn't make much sense.

Year-round coverage here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/

foreign film submissions:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/updated_list_of_foreign_language_academy_submissions

I Am NOT Love(d), amirite?

Also, was Tuesday, After Christmas not eligible for Romania for some reason? That Whistle film is meant to be pretty poor, I thought.

fuck yeah Dogtooth. Never getting a nod, though, of course. By the end of next week I think I'll have seen five of these.

I liked Incendies more than I was expecting to.

let the forecast bullshit begin!

http://www.goldderby.com/predictions.html

Not seen most of those, but I'm going to go ahead and say it's another grim year.

Excited about seeing Winter's Bone at some point though.

So Annette Bening's gonna get the lion's share of the The Kids Are All Right promotion?

she's the only one I've seen promoted

I think Frownland will win best picture retrospectively. How ELSE can justice be done? Right, Morbz???????

bluh, worst film of 2009

Is it now CW that Eisenberg will be nominated? Usually somebody w/ his low commercial profile and relative youth has to be a conventionally pretty woman or get abused throughout the role (ie, Gabourey Sibide) to make the cut.

Matt Damon (relative youth) was nominated in '97, and Jeremy Renner (low commercial profile) last year.

they had flashier roles though

in the BA category in recent years: Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan.

On another note: I read in the NYT a couple of weeks ago that the studio's trying to pull a Michael Douglas SA nod before he croaks.

all those ppl had legit movie star potential (and again, women in their 20s are a whole diff deal -- I wonder why); not sure Hollywood believes that about J.E.

I dunno -- I see Eisenberg turning into, at worst, a Brad Dourif or Chris Walken type who always gets supporting work.

I don't think he'll be quite as character-actory, but yeah, supporting roles in bigger pictures, lead in indies.

btw anyone seen Inside Job? Gonna do so this afternoo.

uh FROWNLAND is in my top three of the decade!

also it was 2007/2008 :)

actually idk if it's top three but prob top ten! :)

Seems to me there's already a thread for this, jerks.

i'm into separating Oscars and detrius.

The Governors Awards shindig:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/15/movies/15oscar.html

Film 2010 was hyping Toy Story 3 to get best picture, which seems obvious when you think about it.

no.

NYT w/ none of the important news as usual -- like who presented JLG's award or who pretended to accept, if such a charade took place.

lol at claudia winkelman/film 2010

hmmm http://www.deadline.com/2010/11/oscar-disneys-rich-ross-says-were-going-for-the-best-picture-win-for-toy-story-3/

I'm all for that ad campaign.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences on Thursday announced its list of the 15 films that are still in the running for this year's feature documentary Oscar.

The most visible documentaries of the year — Charles Ferguson's "Inside Job" (about the financial system meltdown) and Davis Guggenheim's "Waiting for 'Superman' " (about the U.S. education system) — both made the cut after being left off the International Documentary Awards list of nominees.

Other veteran documentary filmmakers were recognized too: Alex Gibney's "Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer" is on the list, as is "Waste Land" by Lucy Walker.

The other 11: "Exit Through the Gift Shop," "Gasland," "Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould," "The Lottery," "The Tillman Story," "Precious Life," "Quest for Honor," "Restrepo," "This Way of Life," "Enemies of the People" and "William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe."

The documentary branch members will now select the five nominees, which will be announced in January. The Oscars will be handed out Feb. 27.

—Nicole Sperling, LA Times

Notable omissions:

Oceans
Babies
Catfish
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

(Notable in that all grossed more than $3 million domestically.)

if HBC wins, it'll be a long evening.

yes, one of the Awards Daily 'no guts no glory' suggestions was a King's clean sweep.

I will be offline at the usual party, so yall have fun.

consensus is so depressing. at least the minor awards will be interesting.

you can listen for my bellowing if Bansky wins.

PICTURE: The King's Speech
DIRECTOR: David Fincher
ACTOR: Colin Firth
ACTRESS: Natalie Portman
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo

So, all these are miles ahead as favourites in the odds. The only award the bookies rate as even a two-horse race is Best Director (and Fincher's still like 1/2 to Hooper's 6/4). Didn't the main categories used to be a bit ... closer?

True Grit is a decent outside bet at 33/1.

not consistently, no. xp

tho I can see Fincher and Leo losing, I really can

Yeah, you're right. Actually, the odds on Leo vs Steinfeld are similar to Fincher v Hooper – I misspoke. Still, it would be nice to have a big award with no clear favourite.

After seeing (the amazing) Animal Kingdom this morning, the only film featured in those six categories I've not seen is The Town. Kind of tempted to watch it tonight for completeness's sake, but it looks kind of lame.

it's not even on regular tv in the uk

basically, even though i started this thread (five months ago) http://www.big-t-shirts.com/ProdImages/big/792.jpg

Supporting Actress almost always promises a surprise.

we all do, even if we don't want to admit it xpost

i dont, i havent watched the oscars since the 90s... i just read this thread cuz it seems like end of year movie talk got shunted here from the detrius thread

added scoops to link above:

Billy Crystal does a monologue at the 2/3 point

Kirk Douglas to present supporting actress

can't believe i'm rooting for the social network

ditto

i have to fill out a ballot 4 the oscar party im going 2 tonight so i think im just going 2 copy yours jaymc. if i win i will gladly split the bottle of champagne + 'mystery prize' with you

other option is just fill out a lol ballot & wait for toy story 3 to take best picture

rooting for True Grit even tho it'll just get Cinematography and maaaayyybe Sup Actress.

Re: no horseraces upthread, i wouldn't worry oscar voters don't = pundits/bookies. There's always surprises.

I'll be v happy if INSIDE JOB loses, i'll be v v happy if GASLAND wins

What did you dislike about Inside Job? Too tricksily innuendo-filled with the interview editing?

you know the prob w/ the massive pundits' prediction chart above? no one logs who has the best track record. jaymc, any idea?

(I mean past prediction success)

Yeah, I don't hate INSIDE JOB (WASTELAND, on the other hand...), but I'd rather see the Academy celebrate something formally exciting.

Tell me about Wasteland. I haven't seen it it's just out in cinemas here.

I'm rooting for Exit Through the Gift Shop simply because it might result in an epic Dr. Morbius rant.

watched every second of the oscars last year, but didn't feel particularly rewarded for it. i mean i feel sorry for the academy and their diminishing tv ratings, but there's not an awful lot of draw in sitting down to watch celebrities sitting down to watch celebrities.

xxpost -- walking out the door but this piece pretty much nails it: http://www.indiewire.com/article/ego_vs._altruism_turning_trash_into_art_in_waste_land/

Please don't make Biutiful win best foreign language picture, Academy. Pretty please?

fingers crossed for Dogtooth! IT CAN HAPPEN!

i'm rooting against exit because the british press will be extra insufferable tomorrow if that and king's speech win

they'll be insufferable if anything british gets any award at all. they'd probably be insufferable AND indignant if Britain wins nothing. basically you're fucked no matter what happens.

it's the self-congratulatory stuff that bothers me, especially the kind of stuff i imagine would follow a banksy win.

is Apatow getting the Lifetime Achievement this year?

i think the King's Speech stuff would be a lot worse. that's the kind of classic, British pride that appeals to the average BBC/ITV viewer. xpost

I really like a lot of British films, and I want the industry to succeed and I'm sad about the UK Film Council etc etc..., but that parochial raising up of everything British really gets on my tits. Kermode especially.

the only british media i encounter is the guardian, which is why the banksy win worries me.

does kermode like 'the king's speech'? i hated it and hope it loses

literally the only time i ever heard kemode/mayo was them talking about the king's speech. iirc it sounded like a 3/5 review, slightly patronising "(surprisingly) well done" tone. but i guess once the britfilm momentum gets up and as the voice of semi-serious criticism on the national broadcaster, he has little choice.

he wasn't terribly enthusiastic about it in the original review, but once the momentum got going he can't say anything bad about it. he's oftentimes very forgiving of British films in a way he isn't towards anything else. a notable exception would be his (not totally incorrect) insistence that The Queen is a TV movie and shouldn't be on the big screen. Once TKS took off in theatres he was always supportive and glowing about it.

Any hints on a stream site for a poor britisher?

i imagine nothing solid will come up until the actual ceremony starts in a little over an hour.

Cool, ta. I think I miscalculated the time difference - I thought it was about 11:30.

Do people really, I mean really, enjoy watching these red carpet scenes for more than 5 minutes?

im enjoying that tim gunn is one of the interviewers

would watch for things like this, from Richard Brody: Jesse Eisenberg to Robin, saying he doesn't have a TV "but I love watching you in person."

So do people have any hints, streamwise, for when it starts? (I have some people over post-pub to watch it, but by the looks of things they will fall asleep before it starts anyway)

1am

Thanks, I was more asking about streams than times. Is the Oscar.go.com site free?

Poor Marisa Tomei--I can't see her or even hear her name without immediately laughing and thinking of George Costanza groping himself on the couch.

"I have a thing for funny, sstocky, bald men" "I noticed you threw in stocky this time". Or something.

http://abovethelaw.com/_old/images/entries/animated%20siren%20gif%20animated%20siren%20gif%20animated%20siren%20gif%20drudge%20report.GIFJAMES FRANCO/BRUCE VILANCH SLAP FIGHT!!!http://abovethelaw.com/_old/images/entries/animated%20siren%20gif%20animated%20siren%20gif%20animated%20siren%20gif%20drudge%20report.GIF

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/259068/FRANCO-VILANCH.jpg