Kentucky Derby 138 - Saturday, May 5, 2012

official 2012 KyDerby handicapping and bourbon thread, "Lasix love can't be traced" (c) Pavement

my tentative pick: Creative Cause, second in the Santa Anita Derby last out. son of Giant's Causeway should love the farther distance. never run a bad race.

the favorite will either be Union Rags or Bodemeister. Union Rags was probably the best U.S. 2-year-old last year but narrowly lost in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to Hansen, who's also in this year' Derby. (in fact nine horses who ran in last year's BC Juvy made the Derby, which is almost unheard-of ... typically the good 2-year-olds either don't improve enough at age 3 or get injured and leave the Derby trail.) Rags lost to Take Charge Indy last out in the Fla. Derby, Indy will be overbet like crazy since Calvin Borel is riding him. Union Rags trained by Michael Matz who won the Derby a few years ago w/ Barbaro.

Bodemeister is trained by Bob Baffert and won the Arkansas Derby last out by almost 10 lengths and got a huge speed figure (108 Beyer). Best number by a 3-year-old this year but there are plenty of years where a big-figure horse doesn't get an easy setup in the 20-horse Derby and ends up flopping. I don't think he's winning this.

Post - Horse - Jockey - Trainer - Odds

1 Daddy Long Legs Colm O’Donoghue Aidan O’Brien 30-1

2 Optimizer Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

3 Take Charge Indy Calvin Borel Pat Byrne 15-1

4 Union Rags Julien Leparoux Michael Matz 9-2

5 Dullahan Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 8-1

6 Bodemeister Mike Smith Bob Baffert 4-1

7 Rousing Sermon Jose Lezcano Jerry Hollendorder 50-1

8 Creative Cause Joel Rosario Mike Harrington 12-1

9 Trinniberg Willie Martinez Bisnath Parboo 50-1

10 Daddy Nose Best Garrett Gomez Steve Asmussen 15-1

11 Alpha Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1

12 Prospective Luis Contreras Mark Casse 30-1

13 Went the Day Well John Velazquez Graham Motion 20-1

14 Hansen Ramon Dominguez Mike Maker 10-1

15 Gemologist Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 6-1

16 El Padrino Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 20-1

17 Done Talking Sheldon Russell Hamilton Smith 50-1

18 Sabercat Corey Nakatani Steve Asmussen 30-1

19 I’ll Have Another Mario Gutierrez Doug O’Neill 12-1

20 Liaison Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 50-1

21 My Adonis (AE) Elvis Trujillo Kelly Breen 50-1

a lot less suspenseful at the Pk Slope bar since OTB closed.

hard to believe no one has tried to take over and reopen those

I'll be watching at work, betting online, and then after Creative Cause wins the race I'm gonna hit the Crystal Stilts / Woods show at 285 Kent

wavering on Creative Cause, something seems not quite right with him, there's been some less than enthusiastic reports about his training

uh oh! Gemologist or Dullahan?

went the day well seems like the cinephile pick

shit, didn't notice that (and I saw the film last year)

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Taking Bodemeister and Alpha why because handicapper friend/racehorse owner told me to, and Gemologist because I have long had a crush on Javier Castellano, the top of whose head reaches the bottom of my bra (there is pictorial evidence from Saratoga).

quincie is this you?

http://data.whicdn.com/images/24361211/tumblr_m0del0NUPo1ql5yr7o1_500_large.gif

thinking gemologist

woulda been gr8 if i had anything riding on the 1-2 horses

enjoying my julep three hours too late