Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

Hi! Bye!

just starting to read it now, but it's by bill mckibben, so it's going to be a good read. the man is truly a hero.

i would say its scary but its way beyond that. kind of an r.i.p. earth dispatch really.

"In early June, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled on a Norwegian research trawler to see firsthand the growing damage from climate change. "Many of the predictions about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data," she said, describing the sight as "sobering." But the discussions she traveled to Scandinavia to have with other foreign ministers were mostly about how to make sure Western nations get their share of the estimated $9 trillion in oil (that's more than 90 billion barrels, or 37 gigatons of carbon) that will become accessible as the Arctic ice melts. Last month, the Obama administration indicated that it would give Shell permission to start drilling in sections of the Arctic."

well that's good news, at least

we're fucked

all that pesky arctic ice was hiding all the oil!

it's why if you talk to people who work on climate change (people at environmental nonprofits, climate scientists, think tanks), everyone has this attitude that's beyond fatalistic. like, you almost have to laugh at the situation a little bit to keep yourself from going insane. i guess the article talks about that a bit:

We're in the same position we've been in for a quarter-century: scientific warning followed by political inaction. Among scientists speaking off the record, disgusted candor is the rule. One senior scientist told me, "You know those new cigarette packs, where governments make them put a picture of someone with a hole in their throats? Gas pumps should have something like that."

but yeah, it's absurd. in 2010, my dad told me "you know who Obama should appoint for secretary of energy? Sarah Palin. i don't agree with her about a lot of stuff, but she has really good ideas about energy." my dad's kind of an outlier i guess, because he's a super fundamentalist who believes the earth is 8000 years old and doesn't believe that climate change could happen because god promised not to flood the earth again, and even if environmental catastrophe did occur, he'd be raptured out of it (the "pre-wrath rapture" theory") before the shit hit the fan. but man, there are a toooooooon of really ignorant people out there that don't want to hear anything that's bad news.

it really is up to the governments of the world. all of them. the average person is too far gone to really change things. i'm too far gone! he mentions that moral outrage over the loss of a city due to climate-related storms would change opinion, although there has already been mass devastation to cities due to super storms and it hasn't changed anyone's mind about anything. plus, for some reason people don't want to make the connection. major damage due to warming doesn't make people hate the oil companies.

this is increasingly all I think about and it leaves me in a heavy depression. I try to be fatalistic about it and tell myself that the universe will go on regardless, but that's not comfort since I guess one day it will be a dark grey cold mass of atoms.

i find it near-impossible to imagine a government stepping in to take the necessary action against oil companies in liberal socialist Europe, there's absolutely no chance in hell it wd happen in the US or China

all the news stories here about the drought are about how you might be paying more at the pump in the future! that is the number one concern. oh and food prices are gonna go up. that takes second place.

thats really the frustrating part; it really seems like as a planet we could buckle down and fix things, we just won't

whenever I hear the phrase "the price at the pump" it makes me insane. was looking at various political parties' platforms, and of course in the energy section for the democrats' paper there is little mention of climate change, and instead just talk about energy security, independence, and yes, the "price at the pump."

It sounds like it may be coming to a head in the US soon if next year's corn harvest may be fucked.

I am curious what the thinking inside China is - I oddly expect more of them than the US, partly because I don't associate them with "Oh God won't let that happen".

I remember having my huge bout of paralyzed fear about the environment in early 1992 -- still always associate the Church's stellar Priest = Aura with that, probably why that album has lingered with me for so long. I don't see myself returning to that state anymore because it's almost like...well, I went through it, and my fears never went away. I just became inured, and so I'll just live my life as low impact as possible and...wait.

xpost but it's up to people to force their governments to act.

what i'm dreading even more than the world that we'll have to live in for the rest of our lives - where the new normal is weeks on end of 100+ degrees, droughts, Katrinas, oceanic foodchains ruined by acidification, climate refugees struggling to move to the remaining pockets of the world where agriculture isn't wrecked - is the geoengineering "solutions" that will inevitably arise. it's so obvious that that's where we're headed. and no doubt, geoengineering efforts will probably be pushed by exxon-mobil and the like.

what is the true percentage of people in the US that believe god is protecting us though? I feel that there are many who just don't want to admit the truth because it is terrifying, or are just susceptible to listening to whichever account of events is least traumatizing. I figure it's quite a minority who really believe that God Himself will prevent any ecological disaster, even if a majority of Americans identify as religious.

xxpost

like most Americans are religious, but not thaaaaat religious, right? I mean most people just like to say they believe in god and attend church once in a while. right guys??

now I think I'm fooling myself maybe

i need a drink after reading this

I get the impression that it works on a lower/earlier level, like as long as there's FUD about climate change, people can react to it as "one story is this, and one story is that, but God would not put us in the situation where Story 1 happens so it must be Story 2"

I am curious what the thinking inside China is - I oddly expect more of them than the US, partly because I don't associate them with "Oh God won't let that happen".

also because their leadership would actually have the ability to unilaterally "force" action on the issue. don't know if they'd actually do it, but at least it's possible.

there was a nyer stat about 26% (iirc) of americans defining themselves as evangelicals, recently (xxxp)

hey Z S, sorry to use you as a lazy wikipedia substitute, BUT, is it correct that the limited action that was taken by governments after the discovery of the hole in the o-zone layer was actually effective? that stat always seemed slightly reassuring to me, because i couldn't believe that anyone did a lot, but the idea that some modest action was effective seemed promising.

these are some of the people in power in the united states. just so we are clear:

In 2009, for the first time, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce surpassed both the Republican and Democratic National Committees on political spending; the following year, more than 90 percent of the Chamber's cash went to GOP candidates, many of whom deny the existence of global warming. Not long ago, the Chamber even filed a brief with the EPA urging the agency not to regulate carbon – should the world's scientists turn out to be right and the planet heats up, the Chamber advised, "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological and technological adaptations." As radical goes, demanding that we change our physiology seems right up there.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce is horrible for many reasons, not least of which is that they fool people into thinking they're an actual gov't agency!

Not long ago, the Chamber even filed a brief with the EPA urging the agency not to regulate carbon – should the world's scientists turn out to be right and the planet heats up, the Chamber advised, "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological and technological adaptations." As radical goes, demanding that we change our physiology seems right up there.

as cynical as i am about the intelligence of our conservative political leaders, i think that many of them really do understand the implications of climate change. as time goes on and denying climate change becomes more and more absurd - think about the first warnings about cigarettes and cancer in the late 50s, the loooooooong conservative battle against those scientists who were trying to save lives, and then the gradual, quiet acceptance of the facts in the following decades - the rhetoric will quickly shift to geoengineering "solutions", since by then it will be too late to actually effectively mitigate climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. hell, it's probably already too late NOW, when you take into account tipping points/feedback loops. anyway, they'll be happy to move straight to geoengineering, because that's a pro-business attitude that doesn't involve changing your own lifestyle.

http://adsoftheworld.com/files/sony.start_.new_.tunnel20.jpg

wait did ned just say that he made his peace with the destruction of the planet via an australian college rock band from the 80's?

sounds about right

You gotta start somewhere.

hey Z S, sorry to use you as a lazy wikipedia substitute, BUT, is it correct that the limited action that was taken by governments after the discovery of the hole in the o-zone layer was actually effective? that stat always seemed slightly reassuring to me, because i couldn't believe that anyone did a lot, but the idea that some modest action was effective seemed promising.

yes, the actions taken were relatively effective! but the experience is - cue negative nancy alert - unfortunately not very applicable to the problem of climate change. ozone depletion is primarily caused by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Banning the use of CFCs in things like spray cans and refrigerators was relatively easy to accomplish, since there are chemical substitutes that could be used at a similar cost. and it was regulation that could be implemented quickly, from the top down, on industry.

climate change, on the other hand, is driven by the emission of greenhouse gases, primarily from burning coal and using oil. but the key is that the infrastructure required to deliver energy and car-centered transportation to the people is enormous. you can't change it overnight, and you can't do it in a way that consumers barely notice (like phasing out CFCs in spray cans). there are cleaner substitutes for coal and oil, of course, but the substitutes tend to be more expensive and will take a long time to replace to replace the existing infrastructure.

and also, there's just the sheer usefulness of fossil fuels. think about what a gallon of gasoline provides for you - it enables a weak, feeble human being to move a one ton automobile for 30 miles or so! imagine pushing that car! all from a gallon of fossilized ancient dead organisms! it's seriously amazing. and so incredibly cheap. $3 for access to superhuman powers. it's like playing videogames on god mode. people in underdeveloped countries understandably want access to oil and coal. again, all of this in contrast to CFCs, which could be eliminated without negatively impacting the prospects of a better life for anyone else.

xpost -- Said album was more of a vehicle and a lens, in that it builds up to a pretty harrowing ending. I don't know whether it matched my mood or enabled it, but I find it pretty inextricable in reflecting back, and anytime I encounter stories or concerns like this it's part of the soundtrack in my head.

If global warming is real, then why is it cold in winter? Huh? Fuck you, science.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4MCRrsmzYU

The first six months of 2012 were the hottest on record. Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, takes a look at record warm temperatures across the county and the world and their connections to global warming.

http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/jul/11/weather/

The 'Dark Knight' shootings are terrifying and ppl will rightly be appalled by them but somehow climate change lacks the immediacy that would rightly make it that much more terrifying.

it's because what's predicted to happen has never happened before in human memory and so people just ignore it.

if you can scarcely conceptualize a threat then it's hard to motivate yourself to give up deeply ingrained habits and privileges to stop it.

i do wonder what sort of world the rest of my life will be spent in. will my neighbors and myself experience widespread privation? or will life in america just become marginally more difficult, with our wealth and technology insulating ourselves from the worst of it? will my diet change thanks to rolling food shortages? will we all simply die of malnutrition in 40 years?

3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.

he sorta blows his math cred in the second sentence. that number is almost zero.

odds are expressed as a fraction of 1 iirc

agree. the odds are small, not large. an editor should have picked that up.

Dodgy formatting imo, should it be 3.7 x 10^99:1? Or 3.7 x 10:99? Or what?

more proof that this is all a hoax

Sorry, I've got my stupid head on and didn't read the sentence properly. Yes, it makes no sense as he has written it.

it makes sense it's just inaccurate. he shd've used odds against if he wanted to draw the stars comparison.

i mean, i knew what he meant, so it makes sense, and i squinted at the -99 index when i read it

OSU study: Methane bubbles in ice reveal ancient wildfires surged during climate changes

Surging wildfires? Sounds like what we've already been seeing plenty of worldwide. Mega-fires are commonplace now.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/catastrophic-tipping-point-in-greenland-reached-as-crystal-blue-lakes-turn-brown-belch-out-carbon-dioxide

i think ilxors are more informed than the average bear, but just in case someone glances at that URL and doesn't understand what "tipping point" means, now is a good time to refresh

"The magnitude of this and the rate of change were unprecedented"

I think by now every climate scientist has converted that sentence into a macro. It applies to everything they study.

xp - 'Positive feedback loop' is another good one.

Apparently it hit 100 in Winnipeg yesterday.

The Institute of Petroleum Manufacturers quickly pointed out that if, instead of 100°F, you called it 38°C few North Americans would notice, understand or care.

38°!?! In May!?

brrrr

we are being hit by an honest-to-goodness dust storm.

Dust storms, massive economic uncertainty, and the return of fascism. History really does repeat itself.

dag

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/wall-of-dust-video-images-capture-wild-dust-scene-in-illinois-as-warnings-issued/3747895/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQxL8t0gtu8

i love a good live cam!

ilx posts taken out of context, whoa!!!!!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHXBVAnKDDY
3 million cubic meters fall from the Kleines Nesthorn on the village of Blatten in the Lötschental. The 300 inhabitants had been evacuated the week prior. One person is missing.

Seven years ago, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that the world wouldn’t warm 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels until 2040.

Then two years ago, the group predicted the world would pass that threshold between 2030 and 2035.

Now, new data from the World Meteorological Organization released Wednesday indicates that Earth will cross this point in just two years.

The accelerated timeline is due to higher-than-expected temperatures over the past few years, diminishing air pollution that cooled the Earth and greenhouse gas emissions that continue to rise globally despite the growth of renewable energy.

https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-05/WMO_GADCU_2025-2029_Final.pdf

Bring back air pollution that aren’t GHG!

More pictures from the landslide
https://img.rts.ch/articles/2025/image/kfi9j7-28898779.image?mw=1280
https://img.rts.ch/articles/2025/image/y6pgqq-28898992.image?mw=1280

Heat records being broken across Portugal, Spain and Southern France this weekend

https://news.sky.com/story/more-than-40-of-europe-slides-into-drought-including-pockets-of-greece-southern-italy-and-spain-13376787

> The accelerated timeline is due [...] diminishing air pollution that cooled the Earth

Read about this w/r/t to the changes in the fuel used in shipping:

In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented strict regulations to lower sulfur levels in ship fuel. These changes aimed to reduce emissions of sulfate aerosols and sulfur dioxide — pollutants linked to serious health issues like asthma, lung cancer, and cardiovascular diseases — and to improve air quality in coastal and port areas.

While the cleaner fuels have improved air quality, they have also reduced the reflectivity of low-level marine clouds. Previously, aerosol particles from ship exhaust brightened these clouds, enhancing their ability to reflect sunlight and cool the ocean below. With less sulfur pollution, this cooling effect has diminished, allowing more sunlight to warm the ocean surface.

src: https://scitechdaily.com/cleaner-ships-hotter-earth-the-unexpected-climate-twist/

That's incredible but also I guess one of things that's driving 1.5 or 2C much faster than what was predicted.

2C by 2029.

0.5C HIGHER than the ‘safe limit’ agreed by 195 countries in Paris less than 10 years ago.

Yet I’ve not heard a single journalist ask a leader or politician about this.

We’re being boiled to death by a media & politics in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry. pic.twitter.com/7huiyt5fZy

— Climate Dad (@ClimateDad77) June 1, 2025

90 degrees fahrenheit US eastern seaboard, June 4 (2025)!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyjkze510ro

The UK has recorded its warmest spring on record and its driest in more than 50 years, provisional Met Office figures show.

...

Spring is the fastest-warming season in the UK, with the average temperature having increased by 1.8C since 1970.

Camp 1 and camp 2 on K2 have no snow
https://explorersweb.com/pakistan-is-an-oven-and-rockfall-is-making-the-peaks-more-dangerous/

I proposed that question on the mountaineering thread fwiw

curious what role global warming is contributing in the discovery of these long glaciered... artifacts.

― imperial frfr (Steve Shasta), Friday, May 30, 2025 10:03 AM (one month ago)

2300 Europeans killed in just over a week, by heat attributable to climate change:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/all-publications/climate-change-tripled-heat-related-deaths-in-early-summer-european-heatwave.php

How does that attribution work, you ask? Here's an article about that
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/how-climate-scientists-do-extreme-weather-attribution

Nero fiddling from his summer lake house

Smoke from Canadian wildfires is drifting south and making it difficult for Americans to enjoy summer, six members of Congress have said in a letter to Canada's embassy.

"We write to you today on behalf of our constituents who have had to deal with suffocating Canadian wildfire smoke filling the air to begin the summer," they wrote to Ambassador Kirsten Hillman.

"In our neck of the woods, summer months are the best time of the year to spend time outdoors recreating, enjoying time with family, and creating new memories, but this wildfire smoke makes it difficult to do all those things."

More than half the solar panels that were installed last year were in China.
Current solar capacity:
US - 239GW
EU - 338 GW
China - 1000 GW

And Chinese emissions might have peaked, at least they're in the slight negative for the past year (1-1.6%): https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time/

https://www.icm.csic.es/en/news/change-southern-ocean-structure-can-have-climate-implications

Rain in New York didn't seem that terrible last night, but apparently there was record rainfall, second most in an hour, and we've now had two consecutive flights canceled out on two consecutive days.

We got up to 150 mm (6 inches) of rain on Sunday afernoon here in Montreal. Lots of basements flooded, the sewer system here just isn't built for that kind of rain, which used to be a once a generation type of thing but has now happened twice in less than a year.

It was definitely raining heavily in my part of Brooklyn but it didn't go on for that long??? I saw the flood warnings and hilarious video of the 23rd St train station (not hilarious, actually really dangerous) but it's hard for me to understand that getting 1 inch of rain caused so much chaos. The Montreal situation sounds insane.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-first-planned-migration-of-an-entire-country-is-underway/

(https://archive.ph/4Jh25)

Yup posted on another climate change thread...horrible.

ah sorry I see that now. but yeah a devastating development. I suppose it's good to see they're not being left to fend for themselves, but Tuvalu is one of the lowest-population nations

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/27/greece-enlists-help-from-european-allies-to-tackle-raging-wildfires

16k+ additional deaths in Europe this summer due to global heating

https://www.euronews.com/green/2025/09/17/silent-killer-climate-change-led-to-16500-more-heat-deaths-in-europe-this-summer-study-say

Mosquitos appear in Iceland for the first time
https://www.npr.org/2025/10/22/nx-s1-5582748/iceland-mosquitoes-first-time

rude

Mount Rainier Has Shrunk, and Its Summit Location Has Changed

The results were troubling, to put it mildly. In 1956, Mt. Rainier measured 4,392.2m (14,410′) at its highest point, Columbia Crest. As of 2007, however, Columbia Crest is no longer the summit of Rainier. That honor now goes to a 4,389m (14,399.6′) rocky outcrop about a football field away. Columbia Crest, meanwhile, continues to melt, measuring only 4,385.8m (14,390′) at the time of the study.

Struck by the role of climate (among other factors) in reducing population.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n20/pablo-scheffer/among-the-rabble

Demography is a particularly murky corner of early medieval history, but we know that between 500 and 1000 there was a trend of population decline and deurbanisation, the result of a degrading climate (the cold, arid period between the volcanic winter of 536 and 660 is sometimes called the Late Antique Little Ice Age), continuous warfare and a series of plague epidemics. New research suggests a connection between the harsher conditions and outbreaks of disease, as plague swept through communities already buckling under the pressure of food shortages and social crisis.

Read this postmortem on the IRA too.

https://newrepublic.com/article/202755/inflation-reduction-act-biden-biggest-policy-death

People care much less about what generates their electricity than how much that electricity costs; decarbonization is not a winning message.

i was surprised to read this in tnr

isn’t the reason that IRA didn’t survive just that it was passed under reconciliation so republicans could kill it with 50 votes? is there anything more to it than that?