Can you be American and wrong?

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There have been two high profile public apologies reported recently. One from Damian Hirst
, who apologised for saying the WTC attackers should be congratulated for making a spectacular artwork, the other from German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who apologised for remarks his minister Herta Daeubler-Gmelin made comparing George W. Bush to Hitler.

Both of these apologies were made to Americans after remarks which seemed to attack Americans. But do Americans ever apologise themselves?

They certainly apologise to themselves. The BBC website reports a domestic American apology; authorities in Florida are apologising for mistakenly arresting three muslim men. Bush has announced an inquiry into intelligence failures around Septmber 11th, which is at least setting up the possibility of blame somewhere. But does the US ever make international apologies? Has the US apologised for Vietnam in the same way that Japan (a nation much given to apology) recently apologised to Korea for the misdeeds of a much older war?

In fact, by the standards of realpolitik and might-makes-right, is it logically even possible to be American and wrong?

Certainly, the US threatens to undermine international legal attempts which may, one day, put it in the wrong. The Bush administration seeks to exempt US troops from prosecution under the proposed International Criminal Court, and has hinted that if this condition is not met, the whole enterprise of the ICC (brainchild of the UN and EC) will be in question. With similar arrogance, Bush has undermined other international legislation that might culpabilize the US: as a polluter, the US would certainly have been made culpable and liable by the Kyoto treaty. Bush hoped his failure to ratify it would kill the deal (in that case, he was wrong). He is now making threatening noises about the UN itself, saying that if it fails to back his pre-emptive strike on Iraq, its credibility and future will be in question. One of the more surreal Bushisms was his apparent statement that 'the credibility of the world itself' would suffer if the world did not back his plans. By this logic, it is clearly impossible to be American and wrong, just as it is impossible to differ in view from the US and be credible.

A new strategy document from the office of Donald Rumsfeld outlines America's new policy of unilateral 'first strikes' against any and all countries it deems a current or potential threat. This is balanced by the promise to use such aggression to 'spread freedom and prosperity around the world'. This suggests that (for the authors of the document, at least) being American not just about being right because your might (having a military richer than the next nine states put together) makes you right; it's also about being right on the level of values and philosophies. There can be no virtue, no happiness, no correctness apart from the American conception of 'freedom and prosperity'. Money makes you right, but money is also, in itself, a right. Who would object to the idea of freedom and prosperity -- except someone who wanted to be free of Americans rather than free like Americans?

The larger question is then, if we live in a monoculture in which many people accept American values, what moral systems do we have to turn to for alternative sets of values? And the answer would be: perhaps the legalistic social democratic worldview of the European Union, or perhaps religions like Islam or Buddhism.

So, can you be American and wrong? Or do some Americans feel like some days they can't be American and right?

Momus, Saturday, 21 September 2002 04:28 (twenty-three years ago)

Who would object to the idea of freedom and prosperity -- except someone who wanted to be free of Americans rather than free like Americans?

I should have said 'Who would object to the idea of freedom except someone who wanted to be free of Americans rather than free like Americans? And who would object to the idea of prosperity except someone who thought that American prosperity was preventing rather than helping a more equitable distribution of wealth throughout the world?'

Momus, Saturday, 21 September 2002 04:35 (twenty-three years ago)

does the US ever make international apologies?

yes

were you living in Japan at the time?

felicity (felicity), Saturday, 21 September 2002 05:12 (twenty-three years ago)

Is this question rhetorical? Anyways, I recently saw a TV investigation of FRITO-LAY Inc. . They revealed that they would like all countries in the world to adopt an American snacking habit, in fact, they admited to wanting to change the eating habits of the Dutch to sell more chips! This Dutch guy was talking about how enourmous Americans were when he visited , how elephantine, he had to video tape them. Of course Americans can be wrong, but I guess it depands on who is deciding what IS right and wrong.

Walter Kronkite, Saturday, 21 September 2002 05:28 (twenty-three years ago)

I seem to recall several apologies over dead Afghan civilians.

Will American foreign policy found wrong by Momus be apologized for by an American government which sets American foreign policy? Hm, probably not.

bnw (bnw), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:23 (twenty-three years ago)

An example of US attitudes to apology came with the standoff between America and China in April 2001 over the downed American spy plane.

According to the BBC, the US public were mostly against the idea of apologising to China (although massively more Republicans than Democrats were against apology).

The form the Bush apology finally took -- a Chinese word which expresses regret without admitting any guilt -- is dealt with in a second article, and a third reports speculation that behind the scenes it was realpolitik that ended the standoff: Bush pledged to China not to sell arms to Taiwan.

Momus (Momus), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:40 (twenty-three years ago)

Gwyneth Paltrow apologized for the remarks she made about British men.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:49 (twenty-three years ago)

Britney Spears apologized for flipping off Mexico City.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:51 (twenty-three years ago)

Rivers Cuomo apologizes for Pinkerton all the time.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:52 (twenty-three years ago)

Marv Albert apologized for being a superfreak.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:53 (twenty-three years ago)

Bill Clinton apologized for lying about Lewinsky.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:54 (twenty-three years ago)

Jimmy Swaggert apologized for being a superfreak.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:54 (twenty-three years ago)

Jerry Falwell apologized for his remarks regarding the World Trade Center. (jus' like Mr. Hirst!)

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 06:58 (twenty-three years ago)

I know this isn't quite answering Momus's question, but ...

Quite frankly, I don't know why Schroeder is apologizing for Herta Daeubler-Gmelin's comments. It isn't as if other people (including not a few of us Yanks" aren't thinking "Shrubya=Hitler." I don't even understand it in the wishy-washy I'm-running-for-Chancellor-and-I-want-votes way; wouldn't the Germans who'd be offended not vote for Schroeder anyway? Besides, that such a thing came from a German gives it a little bit of ooomph (who better than a German to sniff out a Nazi).

As fer the American attitude, none other than Shrubya summed it up best -- "Who cares what you think?"

Tad (llamasfur), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:04 (twenty-three years ago)

but Pinkerton is Weezer's best album!!!

jel -- (jel), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:06 (twenty-three years ago)

I think some of the sensitivity may be due to Germany's selling arms to countries (eg. Iraq) that have declared again and again a determination to destroy Israel and wipe Judaism (of which the U.S. is merely a puppet - read Iraq's letter to the U.N.) off the face of the planet (again their words, not mine). Apparently you make more money if you get other countries to carry out your genocide out for you.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:08 (twenty-three years ago)

And of course, a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:09 (twenty-three years ago)

Clinton apologized for not intervening more during the horrors in Rwanda - did any Europeon leaders do the same?

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:25 (twenty-three years ago)

I think some of the sensitivity may be due to Germany's selling arms to countries (eg. Iraq) that have declared again and again a determination to destroy Israel and wipe Judaism (of which the U.S. is merely a puppet - read Iraq's letter to the U.N.) off the face of the planet (again their words, not mine).

You mean like Shrubya's Dad, and Ronnie Raygun? (Or were you locked in a closet during the Eighties?)

I think it's closer to the truth that Chimpco is extraordinarily thin-skinned.

Tad (llamasfur), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:26 (twenty-three years ago)

Or Jimmy Carter (were you locked in a closet?)

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:29 (twenty-three years ago)

I think America's history of having awful bedmates in the Mideast is fairly well known, reasons being 1) Cold war 2) Oil. What I find odd are citizens of countries that don't even give lip service to human rights or democracy (which the U.S. does once it's determined the country in question is it's enemy) attacking the U.S. for the same. Who sold Iraq the basis to it's chemical weapons and nuclear development? Germany.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:35 (twenty-three years ago)

Strange the one Mideastern ally America gets criticised for more than any other is Israel. Can you name one Mideastern country thats 1) more democratic, 2) is more liberal and 3) has a better human rights record (even now under Sharon)? And yet America is attacked more over Israel than it ever was over Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq during the eighties, or even Iran under the Shah. Why?

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:39 (twenty-three years ago)

Tad, if you genuinely believe Shrubya=Hitler I trust you're fleeing to Canada, Cuba, liberated France, whatever safe haven. Unless you were being a tad disingenuous.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 07:44 (twenty-three years ago)

America doesn't get criticised for the same things. It gets criticised for its pro-Israeli policy because that policy is seen by its critics as standing in the way of a resolution to the Israel/Palestine issue. It got criticised for its alliances with the other ones because they're nasty repressive states and it was seen as hypocritical for the US to support them.

Complaints about military funding seem to me unfair - having settled on the State of Israel's existence and location it seems to me that the international community had an obligation of sorts to make sure it could defend itself. So in that sense Israel is an example of the US doing the right thing for once in its "nation-building"

It's also true of course that as well as being democratic, Israel is also the only Middle Eastern state which actually does have dangerous frightening nuclear weapons.

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:05 (twenty-three years ago)

how many posts until "momus, do you like Shrubya?"

felicity (felicity), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:08 (twenty-three years ago)

If you don't count Pakistan as the Mideast.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:08 (twenty-three years ago)

And while America's stance against nuclear proliferation is usually seen as hypocritical (apparently America should be giving Iraq, Iran, Syria nuclear weapons - what's the diff right?), are you actually suggesting that Israel would use nuclear weapons in a conventional war, or that they would attack one of their neighbors with them unprovoked? Are you suggesting Iraq, Iran, and Syria wouldn't?

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:13 (twenty-three years ago)

Also criticism of Israel is louder in many ways because Israel and the US are democratic, i.e. there is a possibility their voters will hear the criticisms, agree and vote accordingly. I would imagine that most Israelis are heartily sick of other people telling them what to do, though.

Oh, and there's also a strain of opinion in Europe and elsewhere which is anti-Israel because the Israelis are Jews - was this what your question was angling towards? I personally think European anti-semitism is more or less a spent force (Russian anti-semitism is by all accounts very much alive and kicking) - that unpleasant side of the European mind is focussed currently on "immigration" aka "asylum seekers" aka (generally) muslims. The European left, which opposes this growing anti-immigration, anti-Islamic feeling, has found itself more and more in a pro-Arab position, which isn't the same as an anti-semitic one.

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:14 (twenty-three years ago)

Can someone show me one editorial criticising Germany, the UK, France, etc. for it's ties to the nasty repressive states of the Mideast? Or is it not hypocritical for them since they never pretended to base their foreign policies on anything but realpolitik and profits? Is the only determination over whether something is worth doing how hypocritical it is?

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:18 (twenty-three years ago)

I don't count Pakistan as the Mideast really.

I think Israel would use nuclear weapons in a conventional war, yes, in certain circumstances. I don't think they would use them as a first strike though. I didn't say in my post that I thought the US' anti-proliferation stance was wrong, so questions about the other states' nuclear stances aren't really relevant. I think anti-proliferation is a great idea and wish it had been applied to Israel before it got the bomb.

(For the record, I have no idea about Syria. I think Iraq and Iran would not use them in a first strike situation, except possibly against each other if the other didn't have the bomb. I think both would use them in a conventional war.)

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:22 (twenty-three years ago)

In the UK an 'ethical foreign policy' was supposedly introduced in 1997 when Labour got in. Since then there have been tons of editorials lambasting the Government for its tradings with and arms dealings to various unpleasant regimes, mostly not in the Middle East because the UK doesn't do much business there, but in Africa and Australasia. Do a search on "Hawk fighter" on the Guardian website's front page and I'd guess you'll come up with one or two, if they archive their editorials. There was also a lot of protest, editorial and otherwise, about the UK's dealings with China.

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:28 (twenty-three years ago)

I think one problem for Europe (although not the Europeon left perhaps) is the ever-increasing xenophobia as a whole (some of which does take the form of anti-semitism). Not to blame the victim, but some of this may do to an unwillingness to assimilate in even the most basic ways (particularly among fundamentalist Muslims) but at the same time it may be an unsolveable problem in that there clearly is such a thing as a 'French' identity or an 'English' identity or a 'German' identity, hence it is possible to be foreign. In America this isn't the case (or at least not nearly as much). Pluralism and multiculturalism are the basis of American culture - to be anti-immigrant is to be anti-American since almost all of our ancesters (and not even distant ones at that) were immigrants. As a result there's no such thing as an 'American' identity, or at least it is not as firmly fixed as the 'English' identity etc. In Granta John Gray wrote "For every attitude that is supposed to be distinctively American one can find an opposite stance that is no less so...". Europeons snicker or snipe when American's toss around the word 'freedom' (just read Momus above), but it is the only consistent principle of American life - the freedom to be who you are, to think what you think, to hate others, to love others, to do nothing, to do something, and domestically at least the course of American history has been to make this principle more and more a reality (with regressions from time to time, including, arguably, right now). Our government either remains true to this principle or gives it lip service, which leads to remaining true to an extent just the same. Even the U.S. gov'ts worst Cold War crimes (and I'd nominate Chile here) were done in 1) secret and 2) in the name (and somwhat genuinely) of fighting Communism. Europe's greatest crimes have been committed in the name of nationalism and profit. Europeons view Americans as naive, arrogant, and hypocritical. Americans view Europeons as cynical, arrogant, and cowardly.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:46 (twenty-three years ago)

Mind you, I'm full of hot air. Thanks for the info re: editorials. It's just I hear of Europeons marching protesting America's foreign policy all the time. I've never heard of American's protesting say, France's foreign policy.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:48 (twenty-three years ago)

And I don't think anti-Semitism is done or dying in Europe (not on the continent at least). I can remember running into anti-Semitic attitudes all the time when I lived in Italy (although not as much as anti-Muslim attitudes). Also, the whole world (including America) assumed that there would be a vicious outbreak of anti-Arab/anti-Muslim attacks in the U.S. post-9/11 but I'm willing to bet more synagogues and Israeli embassies have been burnt in Europe than mosques or Arab embassies in the U.S.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:53 (twenty-three years ago)

Another reason to ignore me: I can't spell 'European'.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 08:59 (twenty-three years ago)

Well James this is because America is powerful and France isn't!

National identity *is* the big question of Europe - it was the first place to invent the nation state and it's currently trying collectively (via the heroic boredom of the EU) to find a way to de-invent it. Multiculturalism and pluralism, whether Europe likes it or not, is its "blowback" - the unintented consequences of its Imperial adventures a century ago. I optimistically think that Europe will manage the transition. I can't make comparisons to the US because I've never been there and to assess big cultural questions like approaches to 'freedom' I think you need to know a place quite well.

You might be right about continental anti-Semitism, I don't know. The impression I get is that attacks on Muslims here take the form of attacks on individuals which have a racial motive - assaults, beatings, etc. - rather than the vandalism of synagogues, graveyards etc. which is typical of European anti-semitism. (I think there's a lot of confusion as well re. people's political position on Israel. On the one hand pro-Israelis can say anti-Israelis are anti-semitic. On the other anti-semites can say oh no I'm just anti-Israel.)

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 09:03 (twenty-three years ago)

Yeah, to an extent I'm harping the anti-Israel = anti-Jew line, which is dishonest, if occasionally true - a Nethanyahu speech was cancelled at a college in the States due to massive protests. On the face of it, not necessarily anti-Semitic - Likud's gained alot by sabotaging the peace process - but several of the protesters carried signs bearing messages like "Hitler didn't finish the job", etc. so you see that element's always there. I live in the deep South and I've heard arguments that the Civil War had nothing to do with slavery and segregation had nothing to do with race, and while I'm willing to grant these people that maybe slavery and race weren't the sole factors behind these issues (anti-Federalism etc.) I've never for a second believed that they weren't 99% of the reason, and I don't think the people who spin these arguments believe them either. Do I think anti-Semitism is the primary reason for anti-Israel criticism? No - but it is a factor.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 09:19 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm gonna throw out two recent comments this thread has made me recall and then I'm going to bed. A couple of weeks ago a friend of mine, apropos of nothing (well not nothing, he was talking about Phillip Roth, but he's given to pontification no matter the occassion - he's got hours of material on Yankee Hotel Foxtrot), that it's impossible to live ethically as an American. A few days after this I read Youssef Chahine's comments that since the American government is democratically elected there is no such thing as an innocent American and it is okay, perhaps even an imperative, to kill any American since they have blood on their hands. I'm not sure how this relates to Momus' original questions but I suspect it falls under "Or do some Americans feel like some days they can't be American and right?"

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 09:52 (twenty-three years ago)

I think this phenom — and others that non-Americans dislike about America, fairly or unfairly — is directly related to the USA's (relative) STRENGTHS as a multi-cultural democracy: that foreign policy has always to squared with many competing strands of domestic opinion. Why wd President X Do the Right Thing for a constituency who can't vote FOR him if he's likely to be voted out by one who can damage him the moment he does (specific example: the anti-Castro vote in Florida will never let the Us to normalise economic relations with Cuba, even though this wd be a far more effective way of dissolving the Castro regime — cf the recent history of Vietnam — than the blockade has been)? The current (v.loose term alert) "liberal" fashion in re such policy strategies is Ethics on the Sly, with Clinton and Blair have routinely gone for: it's the root of their obsession with spin, basically, and it's going to bury Blair, I suspect.

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 10:37 (twenty-three years ago)

the "credibility of the world" argt is not especially surreal if you translate it purely America-centrically (including translating "the world" as the Rest of the World, which I agree is rotten word-use: cf also the UK's tendency to say Europe meaning "the rest of Europe"). If Bush means, no one in America will be much impressed by anything the rest of the world ever says in the future, if they don't do what he's asking for now, he may well be correct (I'm not sure he is because one of the factors routinely overlooked here is the proliferation of conflicting Constituencies-with-Links in the US: even Momus somewhat deals with these as if they are "just" Americans and will therefore never behave Against the National Interest as defined by the Bush crew, but cf the anti-Castro vote once more => internal US politics may yet surprise us' it's certainly a mistake to assume that BY DEFINITION it won't)

One of the problems with the Rest of the World is that the institutions for the representation of its views as a whole (from the UN to al Qaeda, with the EU, and the govts of of China, India, Russia, Nigeria, Brazil, etc etc down to Zimababwe, Burma, North Korea etc all in there) are so flawed. US impatience towards same has produced awful results — war crimes, not to put too fine a point on it — but the scepticism is hardly unjustified, even if the reliance on disastrously wrongheaded tactics of better information-gathering (haha the CIA) has been a catalogue of nearly unmitigated grimness.

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 10:58 (twenty-three years ago)

There's a difference in that world/Europe usage: the UK talks like that because it doesn't like to think of itself as part of Europe, which is not the case with America/the world, unless you're Dan Quayle, I imagine - this is just slipshod language.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 11:07 (twenty-three years ago)

i know, martin, but basing a crit of America on the fact that its president is a poor wordsmith is slipshod politics*

ts: winning the argt in yr head vs winning the argt in the room vs winning the argt in the world

*ps I' m not saying Momus was doing this, and yes I know it's revealing of an isolationist mindset => but I think the mindset is
a. a lot less surprising/shocking than some people seem to, and
b. shocking or not, the Theory of American Exceptionalism is a significant political reality that *has* to be addressed by those who wish to oppose it: reality in the sense that the America polity-at-large is not about to toss it to one side, and reality in the sense that the theory has genuine historical basis to it


mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 11:21 (twenty-three years ago)

Absolutely - I was more intending to make the point of the insularity of the UK, which is besides the point here.

This may be apocryphal, but I remember reading of a congressman (or possibly senator or some such) standing up in a debate on increasing the teaching of foreign languages in American schools and saying "If the American language was good enough for Jesus Christ it's good enough for me". That isn't just quoted in a Quayle/Dubya laugh-at-the-stupid-American-politician way (though partly, obv), but also because it is revealing of what you mention. I also recall a study which showed that the majority of American teenagers couldn't even locate Mexico on a world map - or was it Canada?

The problem is that American has been hurt and therefore sees itself as the injured victim, and therefore righteous. America's (eventual) entry into two World Wars was decisive => righteous and victorious. Afghanistan has been presented as a victory (despite completely failing in the stated objectives) => righteous and victorious. I suspect that limited publicity is given to why much of the Islamic world (among others) resents and even hates America, so the other side of the coin is unsurprisingly underrepresented.

America is now starting to say that it will decide which countries are good and which bad, and the rest (UN included) had better support them or face the accusation of being on the side of Evil. America will then choose which countries to attack and/or destabilise, and the rest had etc. In practical terms, what are they risking? How many countries will want to stand up against America? Even if they are so inclined, is Iraq the issue? Do they want to be on Saddam's side, to join the Axis Of Evil? If there is war against Iraq, and if the US wins (both probable, I think), and if the replacement regime is seen as an improvement, if only while we're all still watching closely, we have victory and righteousness yet again - and, almost certainly, a feeling of 'bring on the next one'. Simultaneously, resentments fester and grow in many areas.

If the terrorism (the downside) can be contained and minimised, this is a recipe for America to take control of much of the world, in the guise of benevolence as well as self preservation (with a played-down dash of righteous vengeance). It worries me a great deal, less because I would see American control of some of these regions as a terrible thing (not that I'm in favour of it, by any means) than because I start thinking about where the reaction might come from, and how severe it might be.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 13:21 (twenty-three years ago)

Martin sums up a lot of my feelings in a nutshell. All the what ifs sink in my mind and worry me greatly...

Ned Raggett (Ned), Saturday, 21 September 2002 13:25 (twenty-three years ago)

I am rather building on a stack of what ifs, but none of them look unlikely to me, so I don't think the end probability is at all low.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 13:30 (twenty-three years ago)

Thus my worries. The whole thing feels distinctly queasy, though weirdly I'm feeling less queasy than before -- not sure why.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Saturday, 21 September 2002 13:38 (twenty-three years ago)

"american" control of much of the world is a phantasm, since america as a polity will not have political control over that control, if you see what i mean => insofar as orgs will evolve to establish the control that martin and ned foresee, if they do, they will of necessity be "global" in structure, not national (just as the major megacorps and backs and whatever are already: far wealthier than most nation-states, more powerful than many and less accountable than some... )

the main weakness in it as prophecy is that it treats america as a monolith, culturally and interest-wise, when it's not => and because the process being imagined will exacerbate internal conflicts rather than cool them down (one significant difference between european imperialism 150 years ago, where class conflict was "exported" and thus in the short-term diminished, even neutralised at home, and this emergent neo-imperialism, is that the latter is actively intensifying social separations at home, in economic terms particularly....)

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 14:26 (twenty-three years ago)

All your points are true, Mark, but I think America is presently very far from any internal backlash or revolt, and while I accept that the term 'America' is used loosely, that doesn't mean that it isn't pointing to anything real - America is a collective of people, forces, institutions and ideas. I guess I'm saying that their ideological hegemony will be considerably extended, and possibly direct control by force and finance as well. Perhaps I should suggest that it will become more influential? (Deliberate use of the word's vague muddiness.)

I don't see this as prophesying the next decades, but the next months, maybe a couple of years. There is a momentum there, and Bush will I think try to ride and sustain it. It can't last terribly long, and the consequences could be nasty, both from internal cracks opening (especially if the government is not careful in its choice of enemies), from terrorist reaction (and maybe guerilla action within any occupied/subdued nations), and perhaps from turning other countries into active enemies. Someone at work the other day made dramatic sounding noises along the lines of "We haven't heard much from China lately - they'll explode soon and go stomping across the world," which slightly smacked of Yellow Menace nonsense, and I don't see China as likely to start looking externally, let alone "stomping across the world" any time soon, but serious American expansionism could provoke any of quite a few different nations.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 14:46 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm not so much foreseeing monoliths, Mark, as the potential for a relative chaos and a huge new amount of distrust. That depresses me on a personal level, actually -- which may sound selfish (and maybe indirectly hints at my own paradise being some sort of place where we're all happy shoppers or something, which is a fundamentally even MORE depressing thought).

I still think that a lot of this currently unsettled state will go by the wayside when fuel cell technology kicks in fully. We are on the brink, and though nothing will happen overnight, a transformation from power via oil to power via hydrogen will thoroughly transform strategic, economic, social and environmental considerations in a number of different ways for America and the world as a whole. Not least of which: if oil is no longer needed after a certain point and OPEC's power as an economic bloc is reduced to nil or near it, where will that leave the Middle East in general? That said, I think that overall transformation will take at least two decades, possibly more -- it all depends on how quickly fuel cell supply infrastructures are set up and how swiftly the switchover occurs (or is mandated to occur).

Ned Raggett (Ned), Saturday, 21 September 2002 15:07 (twenty-three years ago)

ok martin but then we're at the difference between "would like to establish control" and "has established control" => in 1900 the British Empire *had* established global control, as it judged such things, but it had taken 50 years

where is the manpower for this policing activity going to come from?
UN troops? (requires sanction of UN; co-operation of other powerful nation-states, complete with interests trade-off)
Troops of friendly allies? (requires major interests trade-offs, esp. in ref. respect of norms of international law)
Troops of puppet regimes? (this solution has historically been the direct producer of most if not all anti-US activity not directly emanating from the former communist bloc) (The arming of said regimes = the arming of anti-US forces years if not weeks down the line)
Security forces paid for and controlled by global megacorps (cf RoboCop => this option is not yet online in the real world, in the sense of widely discussed or explored politically, though it's pretty much what I meant by evolution of requisite global orgs... calling such orgs "America" seems to be me to be stretching the word hugely too far, unless you insist that "America" *already* equals the world in economic terms... )
Partial mobilisation of US youth (!!!!)


It's true that there's a major spasm of can-do-ism animating American politics at the moment, and that that has tremendous momentum, which its politicians are unavoidably caught up in, some no doubt cynically.

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 15:14 (twenty-three years ago)

sorry: forgot to conclude last par => but to *sustain* can-do-ism will require active quick(ish) delivery of tangible material benefit to American voters, in goods or security (israel for example has delivered the former and then some to its voters, but the failure to deliver latter must stand as a terrible warning)

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 15:26 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm not convinced that tangible material benefits need to appear, Mark: as long as the material costs don't start to be felt, the revenge, righteousness and so on (they'll need a few good heroic stories too, but they will be easily found) will keep the momentum going for a time. And there may be ways (unlikely, but possible) that oil prices could be brought down, which would achieve what you think is necessary.

As for policing, this would be more of an issue in the longer term, or if America overextends itself. The numbers needed depend on so many factors, not limited to: how cruching the victory and how much opposition is left; how many countries this is necessary in; what international support can be gathered; the strength of the presumably temporary replacement regime; the general feeling in the defeated nation. Forces can come from all the sources mentioned, but the only way that major expansionism is feasible is if they can replace Saddam (to take the immediate example) with a new regime which is seen as better or at least not worst by Iraq, and Iraq believes in (or is at least willing to suspend disbelief for a while in) better things (for instance free elections, greater prosperity for the majority) to come. Then American resources (not a vast amount needed, in terms of their budgets) can be funnelled into local forces. If these feel part of a brave new world for the nation and are paid well in local terms, they can sustain the new American-installed and -sympathetic regime: that is the extreme case - I'm trying to suggest that there are scenarios where very little direct US military involvement is required.

I am not trying to say that I am convinced that this is what will happen, nor do I want to start making guesses at how far all this might go, how fast, or for how long: what I'm saying is that this is a direction I see as very plausible for the immediate future, and I think it is a dangerous one in the medium term, and unsustainable in the long term.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 15:55 (twenty-three years ago)

introduction of (genuine) democracy to iraq = decrease of american control, not increase

of course it all depends what you mean by control: in ref.my defn, let's just say that at no stage in its 20-odd years of presence in vietnam did america establish anything REMOTELY RESEMBLING control, even over the increasingly frantic succession of puppet leaders it sponsored

haha i just realised what the unspoken word in this discussion is!! "i'm under japanese influence and my honour's at stake!!"

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 16:21 (twenty-three years ago)

Another thing that worries me is that any form of protest seems futile. Even though I don't currently see a lot of public resistance to Bush's plan, I have a feeling that even if there were widespread protest it would be futile. This is a leader who has not been elected by the majority of voters and does not seem to truly care what is in the best interests of the country's citizens or even care what their opinion might be. Instead, he wishes to serve the big oil companies and settle childish old scores no matter what the consequences might be.

Nicole (Nicole), Saturday, 21 September 2002 16:32 (twenty-three years ago)

I think in many ways the problem vis-a-vis American protest is this -- for it to happen, we would have be losing catastrophically and starting to call up troops from civilian life. The great difference between this situation and Vietnam (so far) is that the draft is not a factor. But for the draft to be a factor -- and therefore for aggressive, widespread questioning about what we're doing over there to occur -- we would, as mentioned, having to be losing very badly to replace the troops. I don't want this to happen because frankly my biggest fears -- along with all the inevitable civilian death that's going to result -- are for the troops who are going to be sent in there and killed for no good reason. And morale doesn't seem all that high, or more accurately, the troops will do what they are trained to do, but right now I can't sense anybody with military connections who are all hyped up about this thing. Then there's the possibility that things in Afghanistan will get worse as well...argh. This whole thing is a mess, a huge frightening mess.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Saturday, 21 September 2002 16:43 (twenty-three years ago)

introduction of (genuine) democracy to iraq = decrease of american control, not increase

True, Mark, though I wasn't looking that far ahead - I was talking about the interim regime with promises of eventual free elections. That is a different matter, and can last quite a long time.

Well, the US never managed to win the war in Vietnam: there is no superpower to oppose them in Iraq, so I don't see it as terribly similar.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 17:01 (twenty-three years ago)

it will be interesting to see what the results of the German general elections are going to be? Schroder (via his justice minister) did play the anti-US card. I wonder that will tip the balance in his favour (the polls shows its very close).

Julio Desouza (jdesouza), Saturday, 21 September 2002 17:17 (twenty-three years ago)

How many posts until, "Momus, do you like Shibuya?"

This is funny bc I was just listening to Jonanthan Shwartz's American songbook program on WNYC, and he was going off bc he feels that all Americans are apoligizing (but I guess that this would be to eachother) and that it doesn't mean anything. So, he wants some true consequence, like the moment you apoligize you are *shocked* electrically and then will suffer pain for up to 72 hours... putting the recontrition back in the apology... Actually, today he is rare form, he followed this treatise with a call to more orchestrations for the tuba... No more mere symphonies for the piano and violin, he wonders why the tuba is so overlooked...

Mary (Mary), Saturday, 21 September 2002 17:49 (twenty-three years ago)

"widespread protest it would be futile." - not true; it would depend on who was protesting though. If it was just you usual anti-WTOers then no, it would have no impact whatsoever - these people aren't responsible for anyone's getting elected. But, if as happened with Clinton in 98 (?) when they had the townhall meeting discussing attacking Iraq and many middle-class Americans came out and very vocally voiced concern and outrage, then yes it can be effective. The most effective questionings of Bush so far have come from the right and Zell Miller, Bush's own personal democrat. One problem with many critics of the war and the overwhelming majority of would-be protesters is how out of touch they are with the present-day military and present-day warfare. Most of them throw out "Vietnam" as if it had anything logistically in common with this war, making the rest of their arguments look ridiculous as well when it doesn't turn out to be Vietnam (eg. Afghanistan, Panama - which is the model for this war). Comparing it to the Mexican War would make more sense.

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 19:41 (twenty-three years ago)

(can i just point out that my various mentions of vietnam do not fall under JB's injunction in re iraq esp.short-term)

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 19:45 (twenty-three years ago)

I didn't mean you! I'm talking about pundits who say "it's going to be another Vietnam" everytime the U.S. gets into a conflict.

Interesting development: Jesse Helms, who's unilateralist and proud (there's no question about whether or not the U.N. is irrelevant to him) calls Schroder's bluff: Helms "said that if Schroeder wins re-election and does not show a more constructive attitude toward dealing with Iraq, ``then the U.S. Congress must seriously consider moving U.S. forces out of Germany and stationing them on the territory of other NATO allies who do support the United States...''

Does NATO exist for anything beyond ceremonial and training purposes anymore anyway?

James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 21 September 2002 19:53 (twenty-three years ago)

Haha if Germany thought they cd get away with it they would totally ask for US forces to be withdrawn anyway surely, and no other NATO member would want them. There is a reason why Germany ended up with them after all! And there isn't an Eastern threat to protect against any more.

Tom (Groke), Saturday, 21 September 2002 20:00 (twenty-three years ago)

is helms senile? that threat makes no sense at all!!

mark s (mark s), Saturday, 21 September 2002 20:13 (twenty-three years ago)

Next threat: refusing to let Celine Dion tour Germany.

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 20:18 (twenty-three years ago)

Actually, is she Canadian? Oops!

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Saturday, 21 September 2002 20:18 (twenty-three years ago)

is helms senile?

For about the last twenty years. Thank heavens he's finally standing down.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Saturday, 21 September 2002 20:22 (twenty-three years ago)

'I live in the deep South and I've heard arguments that the Civil War had nothing to do with slavery and segregation had nothing to do with race, and while I'm willing to grant these people that maybe slavery and race weren't the sole factors behind these issues (anti-Federalism etc.) I've never for a second believed that they weren't 99% of the reason, and I don't think the people who spin these arguments believe them either.'

From my studies at college, slavery was to the U. S. Civil War what democracy-in-Irak is to Shrub's war. Lincoln didn't want to lose half the territory he was in charge of (cf. Franz Josef Habsburg, 1914), and Southerners were understandably reluctant to pay taxes to build railways, etc. in the North-East and West (Simplified but True).

Tim Bateman, Monday, 23 September 2002 10:52 (twenty-three years ago)

Bush planned Iraq "regime change" before becoming president

one of the guys who helped draft up this doc was this guy

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Monday, 23 September 2002 17:32 (twenty-three years ago)

Can't say I'm too surprised, of course.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, 23 September 2002 18:36 (twenty-three years ago)

Tim: tell it to the Nathan Bedford Forrest

James Blount (James Blount), Monday, 23 September 2002 19:03 (twenty-three years ago)

Next threat: refusing to let Celine Dion tour Germany.

Yes, sigh shes a Quebecois, but shes residing in Las Vegas or something wacky so they could detain her in area 51 pretty close to those spaceships and we could all be happy.

Mr Noodles (Mr Noodles), Monday, 23 September 2002 19:09 (twenty-three years ago)


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