When will we next see a GOP president?

Because I'm looking at Rubio and Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie and whoever else is waiting in the wings and thinking it's gonna be a long period of absence from the Executive for those clowns.

2016. Nothing will get done in the next term and Americans are fickle.

later than 2024

I know this has been bandied about in several threads, but who is the likely Dem in 2016?

maybe 2020 depending on how Hillary's first term goes

http://www.broadrecognition.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/480px-John_Boehner_official_portrait-480x288.jpg

Hillary is just as likely to run as to not run. If she declines, then who knows.

xp: who's she?

2016. Nothing will get done in the next term and Americans are fickle.

Maybe, but already disappeared are the GOP "broadening the base" and "new demographics" messages that circulated in November. After an ever so brief flirtation with reality, they've returned to the patriot/rich/white/male perch again.

2024

i don't see how HRC doesn't run. she's been immersed in the pursuit of political power for your entire adult life and is widely considered the front runner for president of the united states in 2016. unless someone drops a bunch of lsd into her afternoon tea and she decided that she wants to enjoy her retirement and truly begin to understand herself, maaaaaan, she'll grab at the presidency with maniacal crackly eyes

it's hard to predict things more than 10 years in the future (10 years ago what would the voting be on 'when will we have the first black president'?) but absent some v. unforeseen event happening in the next 4 years, the dems will win 2016, which makes them favorites for 2020. so I'm voting 2024.

and it's hard to judge how quickly the gop will learn from its losses but it's def stuck in a tricky place in that it needs more than just some darkhorse moderate to come save the day. it needs to radically shift its position on tons of things. but after a decade of rino-hunting, its stuck in a weird equilibrium where a small shift to the left is actually gonna lose more support than it gains.

re: Boehner

I used to think that guy probably had presidential ambitions, but now that I've seen how flimsy he is as a majority leader and how he basically has no respect from either side of the congressional aisle, I don't see how a run by him wouldn't end before the first primary takes place.

For all the Republican gaffes wrt emerging polical forces (young social liberals, Hispanics, etc), low info voters still vote their pocketbook. There are a number of regression formulas that predict the popular vote from economic indicators. The private credit unwind will only be 8 years old in 2016, and deleveraging after financial crises of the 1929/2007 variety generally is a generational (17-19 year) affair.

I'm not convinced that shale oil really makes the North America energy independent, and 2016 is past the 2014 end-of-global-oil production plateau that seems likely. Israel starts some shit with Iran in 2016, the Straits are temporarily closed, and with petrol is $6.00+/gal "drill baby drill" won't sound so asinine to the low info voter.

Against that, none of the Tea Party types seem particularly charismatic, and the establishment Republicans are worse. My prediction, Republican gains in 2014, a shallow drubbing in 2016, and perhaps by 2020 the GOP will discover if they have any Jon Huntsman-types left for national office.

lol Huntsman

next? we've had republican presidents for the last 30 years haven't we?

(real answer: 2024)

Huntsman had no impact on the primaries. He's done.

while its true that low info voters vote their pocketbook, the gop has been veering out of the world where they can even take advantage of a good-for-them election environment.

ie if the gop were operating like a rational political party that's there to win elections, we'd be in a different place regardless

I don't think HRC runs, but then again it's always seemed to me like people's reads on her are all really weird projection/wish-fulfillment stuff. I go with Amy Klobuchar. Amy Klobuchar you bastards

Btw, the only Senate Majority leader to win the presidency was LBJ. A house majority leader has never gone on to the presidency. State governors, particularly of swing states, are way more common as presidents. Something like a John Kasich/Susana Martinez slate, though unpopular with diehard Tea Partiers, might be formidable in the electoral college.

hey I would prefer Mikulski myself but whaddayagonnado

xp

Sanpaku otm about Boehner, don't think he ever had Pres ambitions

oh dude amy klobuchar would be so badass xxxpost

XP: by Huntsman types, I just meant the vanishing breed of pragmatic Republicans (Olympia Snowe etc..)

they're vanishing for a reason

my read on hillary clinton is she is an extremely ambitious person who wanted to be president and has the nomination - and probably the office - if she wants it.

'no no I'm too old and tired I think I will just hang around the house' ya fucking right

xp

hrc will be 69 on election day 2016
just like ronnie in 1980

'I could either be the first female president in american history or I could catch up on episodes of american idol'

^^^

once you run for president, you never stop running (as some guy said)

hrc will be 69 on election day 2016
just like ronnie in 1980

Wild Flag lyric?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTl-2YzZMI

they're vanishing for a reason

Parties are slow ships to turn around, but the DLC got Clinton into the presidency just 12 years after the electorate shifted markedly right under Reagan. Eventually power always trumps ideology.

I could definitely see a situation where Dems overreach and independent voters look for a moderate GOP alternative. Unfortunately, those folks don't survive the primaries.

so Sanpaku thinks the GOP is going to veer to the left

2013

which issues will the GOP pivot to the left on, do tell

xp

the 12 years of gop that clinton followed weren't 12 years of the democratic party defining itself as 100%obstructionist.

xp

Oh man I need to know if I am at liberty to tell the Klobuchar my friends told me

I'm just saying, the 1970s Democratic coalition of private sector unions and white ethnics just wasn't viable on the national field during the 12 years of Reagan/Bush, which lead to the DLC adopting a lot of the same positions & language and winning with Clinton. The 2000s Republican coalition of 1% money and evangelicals (and like jingoists & no-nothings) isn't really viable on the national stage going forward, so there will be triangulation there too. There's just too much money, power, and patronage jobs at stake for the connected to service Norquist and Dobson indefinitely.

remember when you'd see clinton wearing glasses? always reminded me of homer simpson wearing glasses for some reason.

Clinton's glasses were as much as prop as they were for his eyesight benefits.

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/web05/2012/9/10/16/anigif_enhanced-buzz-7682-1347309774-4.gif

I'm just saying, the 1970s Democratic coalition of private sector unions and white ethnics just wasn't viable on the national field during the 12 years of Reagan/Bush, which lead to the DLC adopting a lot of the same positions & language and winning with Clinton. The 2000s Republican coalition of 1% money and evangelicals (and like jingoists & no-nothings) isn't really viable on the national stage going forward, so there will be triangulation there too. There's just too much money, power, and patronage jobs at stake for the connected to service Norquist and Dobson indefinitely.

this is true but the path from 'party that wins w/ unions and white ethnics and bargains w/ the gop' to 'centrist party that compromises w/ the gop a little more' is much more clear-cut than the path from 'batshit ayn randist party that refuses to ever, ever compromise, even when it its in their electoral best interests' to 'centrist part that compromises w/ the dems a little more'

^^^

they will basically have to jettison their base and make a grab for Dem constituencies, good luck with that guy

guys

ultimately the far-right is bigger and less compromising than the far-left and its an electoral trap in a sense

https://twitter.com/TomCoburnsBeard

On a related note:

http://m.gawker.com/5973178/predicting-2013-dont-worry-the-tea-party-will-be-fine

― "It's the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Drunk!" (kingfish), Friday, January 4, 2013 11:49 AM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

moreover basically all of perlstein's goldwater book and the first half of his nixon one is about loling at columnists/pundits who proclaimed the conservative version of the republican party totally unviable

the modern gop's demographic problems seem more way serious to me than "lyndon johnson's approval ratings are very high" tho

like, the doomsayers will always be around and will always be successful w "the base", but nixon didn't resurrect the party by doomsaying; he did it by harnessing the fear/resentment of the white/"patriotic" majority towards the black/war-opposing minority, which is exactly the strategy that is not working so well now

anyway i plan to become the first bearded president but as i'm totally unelectable it'll have to be a coup

I dunno; I think as long as we live in the modern world, we're going to have people who feel victimized by modernity, just due to how the human brain is wired.

And the fact that we're stuck with the brains we have.

anyway i plan to become the first bearded president but as i'm totally unelectable it'll have to be a coup

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TFacdZ1yaYQ/ULPMzDgiMWI/AAAAAAAADRU/uehULhpWxiw/s640/bananas3.jpeg ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1QVthvDhPo

I always loved that they had the blazer there too

that scene + the abrupt loud opening credits have always been how i want movies to start

getting a bunch of racist white ppl to vote against their economic interests was a neat trick that stopped working when there stopped being enough white ppl. i don't see how the republicans can change or evade this fact.

People don't vote according to their economic interests

people vote for a lot of different reasons

I think the answer is "after the next 'Dem' recession" btw

many people do vote according to their economic interests (among other things) but it's highly region-dependent

http://andrewgelman.com/2010/12/the_red-state_b/

chris christies main hurdle is not that hes fat its that hes a tremendously unappealing asshole

i mean americans may not like fattys but they def dont like people who yell a lot, at least not in their presidents

he could get elected maybe jets head coach

People don't vote according to their economic interests

― "It's the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Drunk!" (kingfish), Friday, January 4, 2013 8:39 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lotsa rich people do. They even start PACs for their economic interests.

the economy is one of the things people vote about, some people like racism more tho

chris christies main hurdle is not that heis fat its that hes a tremendously unappealing asshole

fixed

ew

the economy is one of the things people vote about, some people like racism more tho

― lag∞n, Friday, January 4, 2013 8:16 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

there can be overlap too, like lotsa people long for the days when all you needed for a good job was to be a white dude

oh wow a white dude and you went to college too, here have this, it is a well paying job for life, you are a god

its really the perfect vote in a lot of ways

yeah it's kinda annoying when people frame it as a buncha people being taken advantage of

lotsa people are rationally voting for their racist interests

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/01/christie_looks_back_on_how_san.html

A decisive win in a blue state also could help pave the road to a 2016 White House bid. "Life is life; you never know what it’s going to confront you with," he said.

"But I’m asking for four years and I intend to serve four years."

Would he be more ready than he was when a chorus of Republican donors urged him to seek the 2012 GOP nomination?

"Yeah, you’re damn right I’d be more ready," Christie said.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/christie-cover.jpg

giuliani part 2, enjoy yr second place new hampshire primary finish, glory days

Innocuous things that make you irrationally angry (a list thread)

i kinda like martin schoeller

http://cdn.wl.uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/johnny_unitas_simpsons.jpg

Nobody's formally declared yet, right? I mean, Rubio has already been to Iowa about 20 times, but nothing formal.

Starting to doubt, also, that Christie will actually do it.

My boy be havin' trouble lately.

he's playing to evangelicals to try to hold off considerable base support he lost w/ immigration (no real strong competition on that front either; santorum got it by default in 2012 and recent polls have him as a bottom also-ran). christie's running. rand paul's the wildcard to me, could see argument for him just building power in senate, running as a means of determining direction of party (esp on foreign policy), or just normal 'wants to be president' run. there was a poll out of iowa showing hillary beats any gop front runner easy but any gop front runner beats any non-hillary dem easy. this is probably meaningless though - aside from biden how many non-hillary dems have iowans even heard of? 'o yeah, that's the guy carcetti from the wire was based on'? could mean something in terms of dems inability to overcome general negative gop numbers in 2014 though, esp combined w/ prez approval numbers.

Christie and paul and rubio are all in. None of them have a prayer against hillary

Well, if those three are in, we need Ted Cruz to make it a party.

Theres gotta be one wildly racist conspiracy theory nutjob ... not sure if paul or cruz fits the bill better

Only one? Oh Shakey.

A fascinating read in 2016.

lol it really is.

did we ever find out if HRC was going to run

We might just be days from an announcement either way.

unless HRC is horrifically bad, I say we don't see another GOP president for another 12 years at the earliest.

not one mention of Trump itt

I was right fuiud

Theres gotta be one wildly racist conspiracy theory nutjob

a lot of the comments itt were spot-on

REO Speedwagon's "Take It On the Run" a fitting postlude to the GOP campaign

guess it all depends on how long they can keep running with the inspiring message of "we aren't Donald Trump"

idk, Z S almost predicted trump:

- name recognition
- he is a fat guy that yells a lot

Fuck us, we got it right after all.