syria

I'm not sure which one is "no" but that one

*✗

If there's an argument for yes, it better look hard at Libya...

my vote is no

feel like odds of direct military involvement are pretty low anyway, but I don't see how any good would come of it. either with us or without us there's going to be some atrocities committed, and pretty much every side is gonna have their hands dirty by the end. if they all want to kill each other, there's very little we can do to stop it )outside of killing all of them).

I'd like to think that something could be done when ppl are getting gassed, but I'm not sure there is anything. That's a 'damning indictment' of western foreign policy for ya.

Alawites, mainstream Shia, Sunni majority, small Christian minority, Iran, Russia, Iraq, Turkey, Israel and possible spill-over into new Lebanese sectarian civil war... This is hyper-complicated.

Oh and Kurds in NE, iIrc

West's track record of trying to "fix" shit in the region hardly encouraging

yeah exactly

to say nothing of how complicated and tangled all the internecine struggles are, jabbing our sticky fingers in there has not worked out well historically

If there was a time for intervention, I believe it has passed.

if you're gonna start shooting you'd better have a reasonably high chance of a good outcome and we know that we don't.

The Free Syrian supporters really, really wanted Western help about a year ago or more (more than what they're getting now, I mean) but now I think they're so aggrieved at our indifference, that they've reverted to the usual anti-Americanism of the region and little we could do would change that.

the_west is not just america

http://cleanwebkids.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/gerome_bonaparte_before_the_sphinxb.png

No and France and the UK have already started making noises about the use of poison gas. They were involved in Libya and the UK and Germany gave France some help in Mali (mostly logistic). They are more concerned since Syria is on the Med and Turkey, a European nation, if not a member of the EU is a neighbor of Syria. Obama's comments today imply that he intends to do nothing without at least the support of European allies and probably now w/o UN Security Council support (which he'll never get).

Turkey, a European nation, according to about 10% of French people

ftr i sincerely hope none of the_west get involved

Shakey OTM. At this point it feels the best the West can do is just staying away.

The sad truth is that Russia, Turkey and Iran would rather see a stalemate than the total victory of the enemy of their proxy in Syria and they can live with a ruined and divided Syria with almost two million refugees externally and possibly twice that number displaced internally. It seems that the US just wants to make sure that chemical weopons don't fall into the hands of the most extreme jihadis and Israel probably doesn't mind if Syria's a complete basket-case provided Lebanon doesn't slide that way, too, since that would be a boon to Hizbollah. I imagine the US will use drones or cruise missiles if there's too much use of chemical weopons or there's a credible chance of them falling into the hands of radical sunni rebels/ Al Qaeda. Or maybe use proxies of their own... I can't see US boots on the ground right now. There's too much war weariness after our super successful interventions in Iraq and Afghansitan and the situation is that much more murky.

US boots on the ground never going to happen

'targeted strikes' by someone a possibility after this week

^^^

Otherwise known as:

"Look for something that's not already blown up. Blow it up."

"About that, Sir..."

USA or european intervention in Syria would basically be taking intermittent aerial potshots at any faction they don't like, whenever that faction looks to be succeeding too much. The factions most favored by the west are not nearly strong or cohesive enough to attract more backing than that. I have a hunch the US State Dept would prefer to see Assad resume control than see a victory for the majority of Assad's armed opposition. This is not a good time to be a Syrian non-combatant.

the option that would lead to fewest civilian casualties and displacements = covertly providing assistance to assad from the beginning

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

http://i.imgur.com/jSUEikT.jpg

caucasian privilege in the mujahideen

this hews pretty close to my opinion on syria http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/girl-you-wish-you-hadnt-started-a-conversation-with-at-a-partys-summer-plans/n36354/

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/08/26/article-2401925-1B75DFF5000005DC-134_636x410.jpg

Louis, I have made terrible sexing decisions in the past indeed. But I can make better decisions in the future - you will always be a terrible person who gives leftists a bad name.

― boots get knocked from here to czechoslovakier (milo z), Sunday, 20 March 2011 20:39 (2 years ago)

^^^wonder how this guy voted

"There are rules to international law" is always a pisser in any US president's act, but this one delivers it with extra balls.

Three people voted for intervention. I think it would be interesting to hear their perspective.

what do u think treesh?

It doesn't seem like any sort of intervention would be able to accomplish much, and might further inflame the conflict (though i'm not sure it can get much worse than it already is.) Also there is no clear line of "when to intervene", which makes every "intervention" on humanitarian grounds suspect and complicated. So I guess I am for non-intervention, but I think it sucks that International Law exists but it can't do anything to stop a dictator's mass slaughter of civilians.

Really, what 'needs' to be done is establishing a no-fly zone, nobody is talking about invervention as in putting troops on the ground to take down assad. It's the planes and helicopters that needs to be stopped. I think this would have happened a long time ago if russia wasn't involved.

btw i didn't vote. I don't know what to do, but i think you guys are way too pessimistic.

do you think there should be international investigating magistrates in the civil law fashion, who can determine if violations have occurred and then authorize force under the imprimatur of the UN, thereby bypassing the vagaries of the security council or the intervionist whims of individual nations? xp

Maybe, but that seems like it would be a very long process and might not make sense if your goal is to stop an ongoing crisis.

so, kerry declares war, pretty much

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/2013/08/26/kerry-make-statement-syria/Z7ND7UdEp1OQSs9ZQH2v9H/story.html

i'm in favor of non-intervention but for the wrong reasons

which are?

so, kerry declares war, pretty much

airstrikes/drone strikes I guess

state interest in forcing commitment of iranian resources, bleeding of al-q, hezbollah, good distraction to keep radical fundamentalist attention away from the west, etc.

a nice lil quagmire without us in it, for once!

fairly grotesque but i can't disagree

treesh to employ the inane binary of robert kagan u seem to be a hobbesian realist distrustful of the kantian idealism of the UN

mordy is correct though

the distraction hypothesis is probably a bit of a zero sum fallacy because there seems to be an enduring supply of jihad bros, if 10000 of them die in syria then they are probably the same 10000 who were 'radicalized' by syria in the first place

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2013/08/BSm0bOBCYAAAph6.jpg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/the-middle-east-explained-in-one-sort-of-terrifying-chart/

It was always silly to suggest that, if chemical weapons had been used at all, they had been deployed by anyone other than Assad's government. So, a finding that the means of delivery points to the Assad regime is completely unsurprising. The more important question has always been, what kind of a response makes practical sense?

Yup. "One man can change the world with a bullet in the right place." Uh..."Give me a cruise missile long enough and a pivot and I shall move the world." "The World and Life are one. ... Ethics and Aesthetics are one." There must be an answer somewhere...

But really, in this case, the thread of violence had some pretty good consequences, right?

Depends on whether we end up at the same point in five years, except with roughly half the number of people left alive to save.

xp: It wasn't an advanced rocket. Both government and rebels have tons of 132mm launchers and rockets, a technology dating back to 1942, and they work just fine for delivering chemical agents where accuracy isn't all that important.

They may even be superior to artillery shells, as the launcher and round can use cheaper, developing world materials, rather than high strength forgings, and still hold more explosive or chemical agent than a similarly sized shell.

I don't know how the Syrian military marked their chemical rounds, the U.S. Army used distinctive green bands around their shells. If chemical munitions were being distributed to lower level units, many manned by militias, it was probably only a matter of time before a few found their way into a launcher by command or accident.

Yeah, according to what I've read, it wasn't 'a few' and it's pretty unlikely that 'lower lever units' would be entrusted with chemical weapons to begin with, as the chance of the shell being handled wrongly, leaking and killing many of your own soldiers is too high.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/tunisia-to-fight-sex-jihad-trips-to-syria

Sy Hersh thinks Obama had some lies of omission about Syria non-shocker

Barack Obama did not tell the whole story this autumn when he tried to make the case that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August. In some instances, he omitted important intelligence, and in others he presented assumptions as facts. Most significant, he failed to acknowledge something known to the US intelligence community: that the Syrian army is not the only party in the country’s civil war with access to sarin, the nerve agent that a UN study concluded – without assessing responsibility – had been used in the rocket attack.

But in recent interviews with intelligence and military officers and consultants past and present, I found intense concern, and on occasion anger, over what was repeatedly seen as the deliberate manipulation of intelligence.

The same official said there was immense frustration inside the military and intelligence bureaucracy: ‘The guys are throwing their hands in the air and saying, “How can we help this guy” – Obama – “when he and his cronies in the White House make up the intelligence as they go along?”’

Related: Sy Hersh doesn't have a better outlet than the London Review of Books?

oh, well here's why:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/08/seymour-hersh-syria-report_n_4409674.html

hersh prob OTM as per usual.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/opinion/use-force-to-save-starving-syrians.html

There's never been a shortage of armchair pundits advocating killing to avert famine. For those with short memories.

good article https://harpers.org/archive/2016/01/a-special-relationship/

A US air strike killed more than 85 civilians, including children, in Syria on Tuesday after the coalition mistook them for Islamic State fighters.

Some eight families were hit as they tried to flee fighting in their area, in one of the single deadliest strikes on civilians by the alliance since the start of its operations in the war-torn country.

Pictures of the aftermath of the dawn strikes on the Isil-controlled village of Tokhar near Manbij in northern Syria showed the bodies of children as young as three under piles of rubble.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the strikes appeared to have been carried out in error, with the civilians mistaken for Islamist militants.

It is thought Tuesday’s bombing was among the first by jets taking off from Incirlik air base in Turkey since it reopened after the failed coup.

The area has seen intense fighting between extremists and members of the US-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) that have been advancing towards the Isil stronghold of Manbij under the cover of intense airstrikes by the US-led coalition.

The coalition has carried out more than 450 air strikes around the city since the operation to take the town began in May.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/us-air-strike-in-syria-kills-up-to-85-civilians-mistaken-for-isi/

is there another thread where we all freak out at the assassination of the russian ambassador to turkey.

closest: Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!

no shit. https://t.co/kyq7746lwK

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) August 17, 2017

"the West" still stands for blowing shit up......thank you pic.twitter.com/lAYXODksUP

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) April 15, 2018

This language is directly from the Dick Cheney & Karl Rove playbook and script when they would attack Democrats in the Bush years who wanted to "cut and run" and leave the various Middle East wars. There's zero difference in rhetoric or mentality: "our enemies will not fear us." https://t.co/HJ7Lr7WRsW

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 20, 2018

Assad is bad imo

Yeah, but Iraqi Shia and Afghan crime lords were despicable allies. The YPG are cool.

Assad purposely bombed clinics run by Doctors Without Borders because they treated anyone who came to them, some of whom may have been combatants. Of course, all of the medical staff and most of the patients were non-combatants. So, yes, he is bad.

he sure is, and doesn't appear to be going anywhere, as Nobel winner Obama himself said

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/03/world/us-raid-syria-isis

Syria? ISIS? What the fuck?

Well, about time for an update

Looks like Damascus will fall to the rebels by this time tomorrow.

And that it has. Truly a day I never expected

It’s Assad day

Faster even than I expected, thought there might be some token resistance.

Where’s Assad gone? Russia has disowned him and he doesn’t seem to have any friends in the Middle East.

Well, the NHS is always on the lookout for ophthalmologists and he's worked in a UK hospital before.

“Hi, Tulsi? Can I crash with you for a few weeks?”

Well, the NHS is always on the lookout for ophthalmologists and he's worked in a UK hospital before.

― if you like this you might like my brothers music. his name is Stu Morr (Tom D.), Sunday, 8 December 2024 14:55 (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

One for the things you were shockingly old when you learnt thread.

It is happening again.

The IDF issues stay-in-place orders to numerous towns in Quneitra in southern Syria, bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, threatening that fighting will be coming to their areas. https://t.co/WC0mxggVsB

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) December 8, 2024

The jails are opened and people in them are free.

Who will go back in?

In his first speech after entering Damascus, Al-Jolani spoke of removing the “Iranian Shia” & “cleansing” Syria - meanwhile he and his officials claim Syria will be a county for all its citizens, inc minority communities like the Shia. He speaks out of 2 sides of his mouth…

— Maryam Jamshidi (msjamshidi.bsky.social) (@MsJamshidi) December 8, 2024

He's in Moscow.

asylum on humanitarian grounds

he's not much use to Putin now that the Russian military have lost their Mediterranean base.

They haven't, the rebels have agreed not to touch them.

... according to the Russians that is

what are you rebelling against? Well not Putin, for starters!

I’m sure the rebels are totally chill with the state that’s been backing their oppressors continuing to stay in their backyard.

Russia didn't back Assad because they liked his internal Syrian policies regarding Sunnis. They backed him because he had the power to give them what they wanted in terms of military bases in the Middle East and a reliable alliance based on mutual convenience. Putin may not trust the new government, yet, but he'll be happy to work with them if they adopt Assad's terms of alliance.

Add: If the Russia-Syria alliance goes sour it will most likely be because the actions of the new Syrian government in regard to the Shiites will invite Iran's deep enmity, to the point where Putin must fall on one side of the fence or the other. In that case, there's no question he'll value Iran over Syria.

There's a famous photo of a Toyota technical in the Chad-Libya "Toyota War" in 1987:
https://reaperfeed.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/the-toyota-pickup-truck-is-so-dependable-a-war-was-named-after-it-104487_1-min-1024x642.jpg

It came to me because I remember seeing a very similar picture - TOYOTA logo and all - in the news recently from Syria, although I can't for the life of me work out where. My internet history doesn't help. I think the key, if you're a rebel leader, is to have that kind of 1980s Toyota. Not the modern ones with air conditioning. It needs to have wind-up windows and an air blower. You will win.

There were rumours of a Syrian Il-76 transport flying a loop from Damascus, over Homs, and then vanishing, which raised the possibility that Assad might have been shot down while trying to escape. Or that Assad's air force flew him over Homs, dumped him and his family out of the back of the aircraft from a height of 20,000 feet, and then flew off.

I wonder what he will do in Moscow. Is there a modern precedent of dictators seeking refuge in Moscow? I'm sure there are lots of glamorous places in Russia where he could have a country retreat. I can remember Vogue's "Rose in the Desert" piece from 2011, at which point Syria was almost a tourist destination, although my recollection is that you weren't allowed to enter if you had an Israeli stamp in your passport. The Wikivoyage page on Syria from the end of 2010 is fascinating:
https://wikitravel.org/wiki/en/index.php?title=Syria&oldid=1593766

"Syria is generally safe for travelers, partly because crime is considered shameful and is heavily punished. However, the renewed conflict between Israel and Lebanon in 2006 prompted large demonstrations throughout the Middle East. Travelers are advised to avoid all large gatherings as they may turn violent. ...

There are no hostile feelings toward Americans or Westerners in general (although Americans tend to be subjected to more scrutiny by the authorities than other nationalities). You could, however, find yourself in trouble if you engage in open criticism of and against the Syrian government or the president. Your best bet is to avoid political conversations all together just to avoid any possible problems. If you do engage in political discussions with Syrians, be aware that they might face intense questioning by the secret police (mukhabarat) if you are overheard."

On a tangent, and at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I visited Berlin last week, and I had a look at Tempelhof Park. Back when I went there in 2015 they were turning the main building into a migrant centre, which was controversial, and now it's a peculiar mixture of funfair and also a migrant centre, but with the migrants housed in portacabins outside the terminal:
https://i.imgur.com/ze8Pz4T.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/ZI5hmAJ.jpg

Because the terminal is apparently a listed building. It sprung to mind because the image at the top here appears to be from the same place. I remember thinking (a) this would be an excellent location for a thriller (b) why am I photographing people in dire straits in temporary housing (c) can I put this on Instagram without coming across as a narcissistic monster (d) could I perhaps use a black and white filter. And all kinds of thoughts too dark, too tasteless to share with the wider internet, although Ilxor is an exception because we're all the same here.

Asylum applications blocked in Germany, Austria, UK..

I have a Syrian student and had quite the conversation with him today, not really sth I can put in a public thread though.

I'm fairly wary of this HTS al-Jolani guy and unsure of their motives... obviously it would be amazing if they called for multi-party elections but I don't know if that's gonna happen
But hearing about the conditions of the prisons etc., literally anything is better than Assad staying in power... good riddance, and maybe something like peace can commence for these poor people

the more I read about these prisons, the more shocking it is... little children being arrested and sent to prison to disappear

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg6ddnv9geo

this Assad fucker should never relax for one second, he should always expect to be kidnapped or shot on sight