Government Shutdown / Debt Ceiling poll - September/October 2013 edition

There will not be a government shutdown at the end of September and congress will raise the debt ceiling in mid-October

hope you're right! how do you think the shutdown part of the puzzle will play out?

representatives will finally stop beating around the bush and just start roving the streets, finding poor and working class ppl under 35 and breaking their knees. the move will be a hit with older voters, as they deserved it for never having even HEARD janis joplin

By successfully gerrymandering congressional districts to segregate liberals into urban enclaves, thereby creating a preponderance of safe rural-suburban GOP seats in the House of Representatives, the House Republicans have also handcuffed themselves to paleo-ultra-conservative policies. This pretty much requires them to throw tantrums instead of making compromises with the Senate and the executive. If they don't, they get challenged on their right in the primaries by Koch-funded mouth-breathers.

Therefore, yes a gov shutdown and no debt ceiling raise until the tea party gets tired of kicking and screaming in the candy aisle.

it's not that i have a clear view of how it'll work itself out but that i feel pretty certain (like 70% sure) that a government shutdown would be devastating enough to the republicans that they can't allow it to happen

ezra klein sez seems to be in the govt. won't be shut down/congress may fail to raise the debt ceiling crowd, believing that a consequence of the govt. shutdown threat will be boehner doubling down on the debt ceiling/obamacare delay gambit:

Boehner isn't going to simply shrug, say he tried, and bring the Senate bill to the floor. He'll shrug, say he tried, and tell his members that they should let him bring the Senate bill to the floor. He'll say it's because they need to save their fire for the debt ceiling fight, where they can force the White House to delay Obamacare for a year by threatening to trigger a global financial crisis. In fact, this is already the message he's delivering to his members.

There's been a lot of talk -- much of it among Republicans -- about how irresponsible Ted Cruz is being in his fight to defund Obamacare or shut the government down trying. But Boehner and the rest of the House GOP leadership is being much more irresponsible in their promises to delay Obamacare or cause a global financial crisis while trying. And the way they're going to get past Cruz's irresponsible threats is to double down on their own, even more irresponsible, threats.

He'll shrug, say he tried, and tell his members that they should let him bring the Senate bill to the floor

ooooh burn!

I have no idea what's going to happen. I doubt Boehner does either. sometimes I wonder why he even wants to be Speaker at all.

i got the klein link from a digby post, and out of a number of possible outcomes, i see her cynical take as maybe the most likely.

But this raises the question of what might happen if they succeed in train-wrecking the debt ceiling anyway. Obviously, there is no chance this Obamacare defunding will happen. It cannot. So, assuming we are on the verge of a global economic crisis and the Republicans are holding fast on the debt ceiling, what do you suppose the administration, being responsible as it is, will offer the Republicans to end the siege?

Can you see them offering up all the deficit reduction and "entitlement" reforms without their requirement for (temporary) tax hikes? I can. Indeed, I could even see them agreeing to some tax cuts.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

The politics of burning a couple of million poor people always looks like a low risk option.

It seems like way more GOP diehards are convinced that a shutdown would be bad for them this time.

The "Pay us, fuck everyone else" option will happen. No healthcare and food stamps for anyone.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

ZS, I have a question that I thought you might have some insight into. What is the impact that the shutdown has on the Republican party's ability to work w/ 'permanent' government employees who presumably resent them for the furloughs etc?

by 'permanent' do you mean salaried federal employees? and by 'work w/' do you just mean...the GOP's ability to persuade them to vote for them?

yes, i mean salaried federal employees, and by work w/ i guess i'd also include voting but additionally it was my understanding that there are longterm government employees that last through multiple administrations - wouldn't pissing them off be a bad idea if you need them to help implement your agenda in 4 years (or anything the house needs now)?

xp

high level civil service would only be undercutting their agency by being less than professional in their dealings with congress. low level civil service would not be in a position to "work with" republicans in any substantial way. Agency heads who are politicial appointees are under Obama now, so that shouldn't be an issue, either.

yeah, in terms of voting, the people who seem conservative in my office (few people talk about their politics much) are reacting to this the same way that most conservatives and people who don't pay attention are reacting - it's ALL of congress, and obama, that's the problem. if only they'd just compromise, these jokers, etc etc. in terms of implementing the agenda, we're in the executive branch and for better or worse, we have to execute the orders that our supervisors give us, and that's true whether you're someone like me way down on the food chain, or near the top.

in terms of presidential electoral votes, MD and DC are already givens for democratic candidates, so i doubt the GOP is fretting about pissing off federal employees there. but...a lot of us (and contractors affected by the shutdown) live in northern virginia, which is much more of a battleground. it will be interesting to see what happens in the mid-terms, though.

what bone could Obama throw to the House GOP that would save Boehner's ass

Since the Reagan era the GOP has had a good time filling cabinet/executive branch positions with people who loathe the idea of a federal government.

I mean, that's the point.

xpost
long shot scenario, but:

if they tied the shutdown and debt ceiling into a single scenario/attempted negotiation and brought it all the way to the brink, maybe the GOP could manage to extract a few things (sequestration levels of funding for another year, a few obamacare-related items (e.g. the medical device tax), and then attempt to say that they're the sane, calm ones that weren't willing to damage the global economy over this, that they'll continue to fight obamacare every way they can, etc etc