will the american government shut down next tuesday?

i did a very popular poll about this last week:

Government Shutdown / Debt Ceiling poll - September/October 2013 edition

but your title is much more direct! :)

i was leaning toward yay last week, but today i'm not so sure. i'm not worried too much about the senate - everyone seems to fucking hate cruz for some crazy reason. but i do wonder about the house's ability to pass the stripped down, sans-defund-obamacare version.

also, the scenario i was worried about last week seems to be looking more and more likely:

That's what is actually up for grabs: how much the government will spend when the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1. But conservatives were so successful at putting Democrats on defense over Obamacare that Democrats barely even waged a fight on spending.

The House-passed continuing resolution funds the government through Dec. 15 at a spending level of $986.3 billion, roughly what the government is currently spending after the sequester. Senate Democrats plan to strip out the bill's language that prohibits funding for Obamacare, but senior aides privately concede that they'll reluctantly accept the sequester level and won't risk a shutdown for higher spending. The White House has steered clear of using its primary leverage -- a veto threat -- to unwind sequester.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/how-conservatives-win-in-the-government-shutdown-fight-anyway

didn't see your poll -- sorry.

6: There will not be a government shutdown at the end of September and congress will raise the debt ceiling in mid-October
5: There will be a government shutdown at the end of September and congress will raise the debt ceiling in mid-October
2: There will be a government shutdown at the end of September and congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling in mid-Oct
2: There will not be a government shutdown at the end of September and congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling in mid

i hope the winning pollsters are right. i don't know though. the GOP is fucking nuts. (and fuck austerity)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

haha, this poll might not make it through science's peer review process if the closing date is after the outcome is already determined!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BVdk-7dCUAAtyWE.png

i was wrong in the other poll :/

i thought that wall st was a big constituent of the republican party and they certainly would not fuck w/ the market just to get some symbolic cheapshots at obamacare. oops.

the republican party is controlled by like 80 insane people

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BVdmEEmCYAA2JkD.png

https://twitter.com/uscapitol/status/384889336229273600

lol dramatic much, an unpaid intern totally does that account

I hope no one on ILX will be furloughed.

they had to request internal funding to hire a government worker to interrupt the feed with an embedded custom message about the funding running out so it meant

got an email explaining how the nsf grant disbursement will work (it won't) and what this means for the 2014 grants due in 6 weeks (lol).

Shutting down a vast government in some kind of orderly way and then starting it up again days or weeks later costs a hell of a lot of time, effort and money.

who here is on furloughployment?

Everyone who depends on their 401K HEYO!

x-post - me . Have to report for 4 hours Tuesday though.

I am a DC resident but have not been there for six months. From afar, this whole gov shutdown thing sounds like "oh whatever we have done this like a whole bunch of times and the world did not end." Am I wrong? Really? Because I have yet to hear from my DC crew (both feds and contractors) that this is A Thing. Or is this crew just used to this year after year crap and does not really believe the hype any more?

Haha I don't know if people were watching the boehner press conference just now but turning his back (literally!) on a question about what he would say to tomorrow's 800000 furloughed workers was like watching a sweaty dude drink hemlock on national tv

OH wait, I was not remembering the time I had to try to deal with a bunch of government SUB-contractors (to the contractor for which I was working) to be like oh btw we no pay u if u not covered under whatever; our contract with the gov was big enough that we were somewhat protected from congressional shenanigans, iirc.

the GOP is a class act, huh?

good luck usa

We have ten days of funds to work with before we're done for good. Ugh. Goddammit I can't believe this is really gonna happen.

sorry for dumb, but the workers that are compelled (through idk what mechanism, legal or duty?) to work throughout this cessation (prison guards or w/e) will have backpay coming when it stops or are working for free?

how hard would it have been to include these groups in the same bracket as the military?

I'm so mad right now. My bus is maybe half full this morning. I'm sure it will be less full tomorrow. I've been very lucky. I missed a round of sequester-related layoffs at my organization because my department is funded through endowment, rather than government grants. We are currently unaffected by the shutdown, but we'll have to wait and see how bad it gets. Praying for all of the American families this will hurt.

Congress can vote for backpay for workers, but it is not guaranteed.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html

Good luck everyone who might be affected.

If we were dealing with people with any sanity this would be seen as an indefensible failure of basic duty but I'm guessing most of the Republicans who forced this situation would happily see half the government shut down anyway?

i've only read a few basic runthroughs but apparently most republicans would have voted to raise the ceiling but the vote has been blocked by GOP leaders under pressure from the right wingnut groups to whom they fear losing votes in the next round of elections...

if not ~most~ republicans then enough to have passed the measure with dem votes

is there any feeling that this will impact on the Republicans come the next elections? surely their moderate supporters are gonna be peeved by this?

good day for me to go hit the links anyway

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/poll-indicates-gop-has-been-deeply-damaged-by-shutdown-fight

gonna be hard to turn this into a positive for the GOP

conversely, will it not be a major positive to the dems that they're seen to stand up to this when they've half-caved at the threat before?

there's still time for them to cave dmac, they've previously proved magic at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

granted, but the coverage this times seems to suggest that the moderate republicans might make the running.

anyone got a decent longish rundown of this to recommend?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/new-york-daily-news-house-of-turds-cover-boehner.jpg

Today's Google doodle celebrates the 123rd anniversary of Yosemite National Park, which is now closed.

maybe every system of government needs some kind of periodic event where its own authority/legitimacy is briefly thrown into question (us government shutdown maybe our version of parliamentary dissolutions in other countries) as a kind of release valve against more serious violent upheavals. like maybe anarchist trends are inevitable so better this temporary symbolic failure than something more permanent/damaging.

ain't gonna matter one way or the other when the oil runs out

This is something I cannot even concieve of, let alone had heard of or understand, but it seems this isnt even that uncommon (I read somewhere this last happened about 18 years ago!?). I dont think I even get the point of this.

and happened a few times under Reagan.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Do they know what they're doing?

I am 100% with this but obv a political nonstarter in our missilocracy:

http://www.salon.com/2013/10/02/shut_down_the_military_too_why_exempting_it_is_absurdly_unfair/

The Democrats appear to have a very simple, direct plan: demand that the republicans 1) allow the government to operate, without preconditions, 2) raise the debt ceiling, without preconditions, 3) fund the ACA, with only minimal changes.

The tea party Republicans appear to have a very simple, direct plan: start wrecking everything in sight until they get their way, and threaten Boehner with losing his speakership the instant he does anything they don't like.

starting to think this is the end for Boehner tbh

yeah me too.

never change, frank rich

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/10/frank-rich-gop-cant-impeach-obama-closes-dc.html

He says, that if it looks like debt default will happen...

Wall Street, which still writes far more checks for the GOP than the outside right-wing groups supporting the shutdown, will pull the plug on the revolution.

This is CW. I'm not sure how well this fits with his contention in the same piece that the tea party radicals are on a kamikaze mission. Obv, no one can dislodge them until the next election, and the paleo-billionaires will still be writing checks for their favorite trogolodytes. Boehner is still the lynchpin in all this. Wall Street is just another pressure point on him.

there's a bit of a (reassuring?) fantasy that Cruz et al will live out the Ned Beatty scene in "Network" (a fantasy I've shared) but perhaps not since their actual constituents are quite happy with them.

i mean, it's a bit of a canard that the capitalists will act in self-interest to protect the system that made then rich but then it's also a truism that capitalists aren't really capable of seeing what's in their own interests if it conflicts with their ideology.

does boehner choose default over an up or down vote? what's the endgame? impeaching obama for being president while the economy collapsed? what about what just happened when bush was president, in september 2008? i can see them brainwashing themselves into that scenario . . . but does boehner have the balls?

https://twitter.com/uscapitol/status/384889336229273600

― pfunkboy (Algerian Goalkeeper), Tuesday, October 1, 2013 4:07 AM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the thread of replies to this tweet makes me want to do self harm

Boehner doesn't have the votes for impeachment

If Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce decides to intervene it'd be curious to see how much sway they have over Boehner. Boehner is the guy refusing to pass anything with dem votes. Once he does that this is all over.

once he does that his speakership is over too

if Koch Co wants it boehner's got the votes for censure. darryl issua presiding. tar and feather obama like they did clinton and ride jeb bush into the white house. not that that's plausible but that's their way of "thinking" at this point

Chamber of Commerce already tried to intervene btw

xp

what charges could they even bring against Obama tho

Boehner's demise deserves Mike and the Mechanics "The Living Years" in the background

2 counts of illegal benghazing

gee, I can't think of any (that the GOP wd consider)

he committed TREASON when he went overseas and BOWED DOWN to the other leaders. he did that in his first month in office, he should have been impeached then!!!1

yeah I don't think that treason charges would really go anywhere, sorry

i have photo evidence

breaking the 14th amendment, by presiding over the loss of the full faith and credit of the united states. t-party would label that poetic justice and vote to censure. that dominates DC until the midterms and they take the senate. again, not saying that that's smart but they're not smart and hate "the kenyan"

idg what the 14th Amendment has to do with the loss of full faith and credit

this is all crazy talk

this may be because you aren't a brain-damaged racist

Excellent Charles Pierce column showing how the brain-damaged, addled nonsense we hear in right wing "discourse" has its roots in the demented brain of Bonzo.

Reagan: "Can we abandon this country [South Africa] that has stood beside us in every war we've ever fought?"

Reagan: "We are not trying to do anything to try and overthrow the Nicaraguan government."

Reagan: "You have to remember, we don't have the military industrial complex that we once had, when President Eisenhower spoke about it."

Reagan: "Those [nuclear weapons] that are carried in ships of one kind or another, or submersibles, you are dealing there with a conventional type of weapon or instrument, and those instruments can be intercepted. They can be recalled."

Reagan: "Fascism was really the basis for the New Deal."

i think im more curious about the democrats who believe the wingnut stuff that pierce quotes. who on earth are those people?

14th amendment, section 4, gives the GOP pretext to crash the economy on principle (OBAMACARE SOCIALISM BAD!) then blame the president for the calamity

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

they'd something like 'funding obamacare invalidated the public debt of the united states' or some bullshit. no matter how asinine that sounds to a rational human being, our t-party pals can probably think of something even stupider