How long will the USA government shutdown last?

i am voting less than a month, which is honestly pretty close to options 4 and 5 in my opinion. my worry is that these tea party sacks are excited about exceeding the last government shutdown for attention whore reasons.

oh and also assume that less than a month means more than 3 weeks, that was unclear and stupid of me.

brain sez 2-3, heart sez hey remember

I am gonna be so pissed if this means my company's annual Yosemite trip is cancelled

I am gonna be so pissed if this means my company's company is cancelled

went with 1-2 weeks. i'm assuming that everything will get wrapped up into the debt ceiling global economy hostage situation, and some sort of agreement will be reached just early in the week of Oct 14th that funds the government and raises the debt ceiling.

...and just after posting that, i read this:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/government-shutdown-could-merge-with-debt-ceiling-fight

There's a growing sense among House Republicans that the coming fight to increase the debt limit may have to be combined with a continuing resolution to re-open the shuttered government. Leaders are now weighing the prospect after initially ruling it out.

"Just looking at the calendar, it seems possible," said a House GOP leadership aide.

The shutdown occurred Oct. 1. The borrowing limit will be breached on Oct. 17. The short time window between the two -- and the economically catastrophic nature of the second deadline -- may force the two issues to be merged.

"That's quite likely," Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) told reporters on Tuesday afternoon. "Depending on how long this shutdown continues, the two issues could likely become conflated."

just what the always wanted!

imagine that!

seems to me the real critical question - which this all hinges on - is whether or not there's some face-saving way for Boehner to back down from this and still keep his job. If he ditches his caucus to pass something with the Dems, his speakership is basically over. And I can't see any motivation for Obama to take pity on him and offer him some kind of concession, Boehner's been a terrible negotiating partner for his entire presidency. I guess there's the remote possibility that the House GOP sees the light but I dunno what would prompt that.

Billy Kristol said as much this morning. Was proud Sam Stein shut him up by reminding him that homeless shelters will close and people who work at Army commissaries are furloughed.

tbh how would Sam Rayburn and Henry Clay have negotiated with Ted Cruz?

at least Clay would have shot him dead in a duel.

a) horsewhip; b) duel

xp!

i support the reintroduction of dueling in our political process

Lasted 28 days last time. The right wing is not appreciably saner, now.

The stock market was up during both intervals of the last shutdown. It's up (for the first two days) at this moment. No pressure from that angle. As far as I can tell, military procurement contractors and wealthy entitlement recipients are still getting their checks.

This head line should warm the hearts of liberals:http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/with-traditional-gop-allies-defecting-big-business-leaders-take-sides-with-obama

JJJ's "separation" of the time question is not workin' out.

yeah i botched that pretty good.

options should function as

0-1 week
1-2 weeks
2-3 weeks
3-4 weeks
and call stockpiling weapons over 4 weeks and remember the usa as actual state collapse i guess

I voted "will end up getting shot in FL"

i think the 28 days is the combined total of the 2 shutdowns last time, the nov one and the dec-early jan one.

quote from that article:

Most of these lawmakers say local business owners and chambers of commerce have not raised the potential economic downside of a government shutdown or debt default.

2 things

1. Hey fucking hi there, i can do that for you
2. further proof that the definition of "small business" in the eyes of the political scape is pretty fucking laughable and that lots of small business owners are frothing idiots with no actual economic skills.

when your default businessman associates make billions of dollars a year, it's pretty easy to be all "oh $5 million, that's pretty small"

also, Americans in "thinking just being American qualifies them to do something they know nothing about" shocker

EXCEPTIONALISM IS ALIVE AND WELL

I'm thinking Boehner will finally crack under the strain in about 3 weeks and he'll bring a CR to the floor for a vote with some tiny bit of face-saving shit attached that the dems will let him walk away with. Then Cantor will make his play for the speakership and lose.

why would Cantor lose...?

Cantor would be more a slave to the tea party than Boehner has been, and the 180 or so republican reps who aren't beholden to the tea party will have suffered enough already that they won't re-up with Cantor for another round of abuse. If Boehner gets the boot, I think we'd see Greg Walden (R-OR) being boosted by the pragmatists.

lol show me an instance of Boehner not being a slave to the tea party plz

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

there wasn't much news about it in the press, but i was happy to read this:

In a rare Saturday session — and an even rarer showing of bipartisanship — the House voted 407-0 to pass a bill to provide furloughed workers back pay. The Obama administration supports the retroactive pay bill and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he expects the Democratic-led Senate to pass it.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

so yeah, this is the Beginning of the End. And here I thought I'd miss it!

We don’t really know what the consequences of this thing are; there may be all sorts of mysterious derivative products that are dependent on the continuous payment of U.S. Treasury interests. And if they go bad, we could have a chain reaction of failure and seizure we couldn’t even forecast yet.

http://www.salon.com/2013/10/09/tea_partys_shutdown_lunacy_avenging_the_surrender_of_the_south/

http://www.geeksofdoom.com/GoD/img/2010/08/2010-08-11-mad_max-533x355.jpg

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/10/hostage-takers-call-comparisons-to-tea-party-hurtful.html

"We're very excited," said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn). "It's exactly what we wanted, and we got it."

"It's wonderful," said Rep. John Abney Culberson (R-Tex), clapping his hands to emphasize the point. "We're 100 percent united!"

Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) said he and his colleagues "saw the pain and the hurt and the fear, the concern about what would happen as a result of this law. And that created a renewed resolve not only in myself but in others after we got back from the August recess."

"I just think you saw members who said, 'Look, let's just do what we all know needs to be done and frankly what the American people want to see done,'" said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who worked closely with Graves on the plan and helped persuade House leaders to accept it.

otm

can boehner even bring a bill to the floor? could be reading this wrong but . . . does cantor have to do it? or at least make little johnny boehner his "designee"?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/the-house-gop-s-little-rule-change-that-guaranteed-a-shutdown

"The House Rules Committee voted the night of Sept. 30 to [add] language dictating that any motion 'may be offered only by the majority Leader or his designee.'"

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/us/business-groups-see-loss-of-sway-over-house-gop.html?_r=0

all the lols

huffpost gets scooped!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/13/house-republicans-rules-change_n_4095129.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

how is the house rules committee change -- coming from the party who lied us into 9/11, crashed the economy, and dedicated their agenda from day 1 to defeating the potus -- not sedition? line these fuckers up against a wall, with grover norquist at the center

is this all just about the tea party freshmen (ted cruz and mike lee) being too lazy to do their jobs . . . and needing a break from work? won't someone think of the cattle?

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-dead-cattle-20131012,0,3708892.story?page=1

http://i1.kwejk.pl/site_media/obrazki/2012/03/a885dd5ca787ad5926b473a134a7c638.gif?1333202272

anyone wanna set the odds on the next one? mitch mcconnell can't allow EPA to reduce GHG emissions from existing power plants. to stop the evil EPA (their real goal is to gain a stranglehold on america and then hand over citizens to the UN. AGENDA 21 - EVER HEARD OF IT?), they'll slash the EPA budget in half and/or attach provisions to the spending bill to kill the power plant regulation before it can take effect.

The new Congress won't be sworn in until late January. The current budget won't expire for a while after that. Too early to speculate on the details of the car crash. All that is certain is that the post-election bipartisan gurgling noises we've heard are pure bullshit and we are all going to be treated to some damn sorry spectacles in DC in 2015.

I think chances are good that Obama will see Keystone as a bad place to draw the line and fight to the death. I think he'll acquiesce there when he's forced to a showdown. I see him as much more likely to get tough over the new CO2 emission limits on existing coal plants.