AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014

Draws -

men's http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ms/index.html
women's http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ws/index.html

OMG Nadal/Tomic in R1 etc etc

(like that'll be anything other than a straightforward Rafa victory; he might...lose a set?)

Meanwhile it's great to see super-kids Ana Konjuh and Belinda Bencic making good progress through qualies (both in the final round). Most promising junior generation in years and years. Damn shame Konjuh has to have elbow surgery after this tournament but I'm so high on her - if you haven't been following the non-slam thread, these highlights of her first ever WTA match, beating #12 Vinci, last week, four days after her 16th birthday, are so impressive:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE1vIcApHvM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bdfm5pNCIAAwXDV.jpg

Federer has a hard draw. Here is your chance to overtake him Stan! I've transferred my allegiances fully now to Del Potro so meh meh meh.

The second quadrant in the women's is just jam packed with players I adore. Weird that.

getting my predictions in 45 minutes before start of play

http://unforcederrani.tumblr.com/post/73141132265/australian-open-2014-notes-and-predictions

Kerber's serve is a mess today. Gajdosova, if she stays calm (lol), might have a shot!

So, what we watching? I'm watching Laura Robson right now, and will make an attempt to keep up with this thread because lol unemployed and lol insomnia.

Laura is making a stupid amount of unforced errors, and will probably be out in about ten minutes at this rate.

Robson came in with a wrist injury, don't think she should be playing tbh.

I'm watching 17-yr-old Bencic vs 43-yr-old Date-Krumm. Date-Krumm retired for the first time in 1996, Bencic was born in 1997. Bencic looking like the experienced, level-headed one out there though...

So annoyed I won't get to see Konjuh/Li :(

Laura is playing SO BADLY so I've given up on her. I am a bit miffed that the telly is showing this and Stan and I am stuck with a rubbish stream of Heather v Hantuchova.

And now Heather's gone to shit as well. I should start watching people I don't want to win.

Robson the first out of the tournament then...WHY PLAY INJURED?

I've given up and am watching the Golden Globes now. Tell me if anything good happens.

I'm going to bed. Disappointing scoreline from Watson given Hantuchova's awful form and...generally being Hantuchova

Has anyone seen bepa's match? I thought that given the scoreline of her match vs Li she would be in much better shape :-(

This is the best I've seen Goerges play in ages

Set and double break up on Errani. And almost no brainless errors o_O

Zakopalova flopping from *4-1 up in 2nd set to lose to Stosur in straight sets. The ultimate embarrassment ;___;

WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING PETRA

that kumkhum is fun to watch

Been telling everyone that Kumkhum is good. That second set was more how I expected the match to go, glad she put up a good showing though.

What a humiliation for Zakopalova. Losing to Stosur, who she beat LAST WEEK, in Australia? Shameful.

Makarova always peaks for big tournaments, doesn't she? Not surprised she came back vs Venus. She's beaten both Williamses at the AO now.

How did Keys need a 9-7 final set to beat Mayr-Achleitner?

Donna Vekic's slump is worrying now.

Everyone surprised at Janowicz losing but like Robson he came in underprepared and with injury issues. He got thrashed by Dolgopolov last week.

Gulbis finally wins a Slam match when I least expect him to!

Oh, and looks like I was right about this being the year of Vinci and Errani flopping. At least the former benefits Zheng. I guess the latter will trigger a bunch of Goerges hype again :(

Venus :(

is there any reason why Martic got double bagelled?

Haha Kumkhum just hit a dropshot return winner on Kvitova

And Kvitova DFs to hand over the break - Kumkhum to serve for the match

Oh dear :(

Three deuce points - Kumkhum DFed on two of them and shanked a routine groundstroke on the other

WOW Kumkhum broke to win anyway!

Been a while since we saw a Thai player bow to all four corners at a Slam. A worthy successor to Tanasugarn and Srichaphan :)

Djokovic's outfit.

MY EYES, GOD MY EYES. Lacko's is fugly too.

I feel like the shirt would be OK with dark shorts

i like Nole's top actually.
Lacko looks like someone threw together a 'rock star tennis player' outfit from the SNL props department or something

Vickery is pretty bad. Utterly routine win for Davis. Another WC that was so deserved. END THIS CORRUPT FARCE NOW etc

Also underwhelming: Berankis. Weird to think he was a junior stand-out. Dolgopolov was careless and lackadaisical but Berankis had nothing to hurt him with.

Can I also just say how fucking uninterested I am in this trend of "old legends" coaching current ATP players? I'm sure it's entirely for PR (except Murray/Lendl which was a lot more long-standing). Does anyone seriously believe Boris is teaching Nole a thing? It's sad, because it's indicative mostly that tennis fans are the types to constantly pine for the "good old days" rather than taking an interest in the current/future generations.

melbourne's favourite cypriot currently two sets down against denis istomin

Baghdatis has been trading off past glories for years now.

Barty's a useful little player but even though she's one of the best in her age group I struggle to see her ever as a legit top player...

Bepa has barely won a match since I declared her unbeatable for the 2011 Aus Open. And flicking through the program and not seeing her pen-pic, it seems she now has a 3 figure ranking.

Bepa was out for 16 months after the Olympics, she had shoulder surgery. Only came back two weeks ago (didn't think she was going to tbh, while she was away she was going to university and getting degrees and everything, seemed like she was getting ready to move on)

Bepa losing to Dellacqua is doubly sad because the terminally irrelevant Dellacqua will be the subject of our meeja saying OH MY GOD CASE BEAT A FORMER SLAM FINALIST SHE IS REALLY GOING SOMEWHERE ARGH ARGH.

Call me an unpatriotic little shit but I still really look forward to the round where the local contingent has been reduced to zero so I can watch the players I like on TV rather than on shitty streams.

blind patriotism across the tennis media is such a bane of my life and never ever a good look

Larsson is serving for the first set v Azarenka. Of course, it's Larsson, so.

Mid-court pat-balls, that's a way to win a set. Oh wait, it isn't. FML, Azarenka and her mess of a serve is there for the taking.

is everyone playing indoors or in the insane heat?

Matches are going on outside.

dag

How is Larsson even in a tie-breaker. About 60% of her shots don't go much further than the service line.

Matosevic is such a douche. Arguing with the umpire repeatedly and getting a point penalty. That's smart.

Good to see nothing of interest happened while I was asleep. The Devil Child took a set off A-Rad though?? Good to see Halep's shaken off her rust, I was fearful of a slump last week.

Surprised Diyas beat Siniakova in the battle of the Slam debutantes. Gross that Rogowska drew MDM and won a match. Witthoeft is meant to be promising yet she can't beat Minella? Terrible loss.

Blaz Rola, the best name in the men's tournament, beat Delbonis - wow, remember Delbonis beating Fed last summer and for a second people thought he was promising?

Isner retired so I can't gloat too much but I'll just say that the de-Isnering of a tournament for whatever reason is always welcome.

Going to try and avoid seeing or hearing a single thing about this Hewitt comeback that's happening ughhhhh.

alright let's see him try and serve it out now
bated breath

oh oh

3 MATCH POINTS

3-27 sets won against Rafa. :D

:D

Just brilliant. And he was the best player in the tournament by miles

<3 so chuffed for him, genuinely thought he was going to blow it.

Eurosport post-match gubbins >>>>>>> BBC, actually making it about Stan and not Rafa.

Yeah die Andrew Castle

rod laver is taking photos with his phone<3

yawn yawn yawn saint rafa

"for me this is the best grand slam ever" <3

That wee "hello" when he went up to do his speech <3

so fkn happy!!

Well done Stan - no "asterisks" to his win at all, he bossed it.

ugh sorry I couldn't join y'all, was watching in bed and laptop wasn't to hand, can't post off phone! what a weird match. no asterisks at all - Stan peaked until a set and a break up, then came through a real, severe mental test that I thought he was going to flunk for a while. really amazing and refreshing end to the tournament.

Roll of honour!

Men's singles: Stanislas Wawrinka
Women's singles: Li Na
Men's doubles: Lukasz Kubot & Robert Lindstedt
Women's doubles: Sara Errani & Roberta Vinci
Mixed doubles: Kristina Mladenovic & Daniel Nestor
Boys' singles: Alexander Zverev
Girls' singles: Elizaveta Kulichkova
Boys' doubles: Lucas Miedler & Bradley Mousley
Girls' doubles: Anhelina Kalinina & Elizaveta Kulichkova

Kiki M turning into a real doubles specialist, huh! Not that surprising given her game. Kulichkova was a NID girls' winner, she won a Hong Kong 25K two weeks ago beating former top 100 players Namigata and Parmentier, then Diyas (who reached R3 in the MD) in the final. Def one to watch.

I mean: to be real, yes, Rafa's injury needs to be mentioned in any analysis of the match. But times makes all asterisks fade. Who even remembers or cares that half the ATP boycotted Wimbledon in '73 or whenever it was? Jan Kodes is just considered a 100% legit champion.

Stan had to overcome his record against Nadal, his debut grand-slam final nerves. He had to beat Djoko in five sets prior to getting there, and then in the final itself to overcame the mental test of having to deal with an injured opponent (who then p/much recovered) as well as dealing with his nerves as he approached the finish.

That's enough for anybody, and makes his achievement even greater.

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/goat/

interesting post

He turns 32 this year and if he’s ever going to win another major championship, he will need someone to take out Nadal for him. Djokovic too, probably.

Stan can!

i'm sort of a Fed fanboy but find it hard to disagree with the Nadal = open-era-GOAT conclusion. he's done so much to adapt his game to dominate everybody that has challenged him

Jan Kodes is just considered a 100% legit champion.

Not by me, buster. #neverforget

i'm sort of a Fed fanboy but find it hard to disagree with the Nadal = open-era-GOAT conclusion

No. Nadal is outstanding and it is impressive how he has dented Fed's reputation and came back against Djoko when it looked like he was getting on top of him after a series of defeats.

But, while it is wonderful how he did manage to win all other slams that weren't on clay he has never dominated grass or hard courts to anywhere near the extent of the red. Fed went on an incredible runs at Wim and the US.

I hate these discussions because everyone analyses the merit of the players but not the merit of the stats - and never how contradictory some of the most commonly discussed stats are.

The Federer/Nadal head-to-head only shows that Nadal is a bad match-up for Federer. A close h2h between Player X and Player Y is virtually irrelevant when comparing the accomplishments of X and Y. Jennifer Capriati was one of Serena Williams's biggest rivals and almost all of their matches were dogfights - but Serena vastly outstrips Capriati in terms of accomplishments. It doesn't matter that Capriati's game gave her fits. At a lower level, Tsvetana Pironkova has proved herself a horrendous match-up for Venus Williams. She's not a greater player, though.

Once Rafa gets to 16 then we can talk. But until then, Federer leads in almost every measurable accomplishment possible, and by too great a margin to call Rafa as greater yet. Also, I don't dispute that Nadal has been Federer's kryptonite, but Federer has TEN WINS over him. That's not a "Federer could never solve his greatest rival" narrative by any means.

FWIW, I think Rafa will beat Federer's Slam total anyway, but let's at least wait for that to happen.

Also, Federer's current level is irrelevant. He's declined. This doesn't negate past accomplishments. People always talk about this with Venus - is she tarnishing her legacy blah blah blah. No. I've no idea what her motivation is or how she's happy losing to nobodies all the time, but if she doesn't want to retire yet who cares. Her legacy is intact regardless. No one remembers ASV for getting blasted off the court by anybody and everybody for the last couple of years of her career.

By the age of 22-23, Federer had eclipsed his immediate contemporaries to such an extent that he barely had any competition. If he was fit and focused, he won the tournament. Then came the class of '86/'87, who all matured at different rates and ultimately matched/overtook Fed on every surface (for a good while, it was only-Nadal-only-clay; by 2010-11, it was any-of-them-anywhere). We'll never know what the distribution of Slam titles would look like if Nadal had been born in '81, or Federer in '86 - but I suspect it wouldn't look good for Roger. I did run some numbers a while back which showed how much closer their rivalry was during the period when they were #1 and #2 than their H2H would suggest - i.e., Nadal dominated their match-ups (which were so often on clay) but more frequently wouldn't make the date.

I still think of Federer as the greatest stylist I've ever seen, but I've come around to the idea that perhaps he was fortunate to have two or three years of hoovering up every title on offer with only the likes of Safin, Roddick and Hewitt in his way.

The class of '86/'87 have no class of '91/'92 to worry about, it seems.

xp

Imagine this discussion if Rafa ends on 17 slams.

New rankings!

1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Victoria Azarenka (2)
3. Na Li (4)
4. Agnieszka Radwanska (5)
5. Maria Sharapova (3)
6. Petra Kvitova (6)
7. Sara Errani (7)
8. Jelena Jankovic (8)
9. Angelique Kerber (9)
10. Simona Halep (11)
11. Caroline Wozniacki (10)
12. Ana Ivanovic (14)
13. Dominika Cibulkova (24)
14. Roberta Vinci (12)
15. Sabine Lisicki (15)
16. Carla Suarez Navarro (16)
17. Samantha Stosur (17)
18. Sloane Stephens (13)
19. Eugenie Bouchard (31)
20. Maria Kirilenko (18)
21. Kirsten Flipkens (19)
22. Flavia Pennetta (29)
23. Sorana Cirstea (21)
24. Kaia Kanepi (23)
25. Alize Cornet (25)
26. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (30)
27. Lucie Safarova (26)
28. Ekaterina Makarova (22)
29. Svetlana Kuznetsova (20)
30. Jamie Hampton (27)
...
35. Garbine Muguruza (38)
37. Madison Keys (36)
49. Venus Williams (37)
58. Laura Robson (48)
80. Casey Dellacqua (120)
146. Belinda Bencic (187)
206. Ana Konjuh (241)

1. Rafael Nadal (1)
2. Novak Djokovic (2)
3. Stanislas Wawrinka (8)
4. Juan Martin Del Potro (5)
5. David Ferrer (3)
6. Andy Murray (4)
7. Tomas Berdych (7)
8. Roger Federer (6)
9. Richard Gasquet (9)
10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (10)
11. Milos Raonic (11)
12. Tommy Haas (12)
13. John Isner (13)
14. Mikhail Youzhny (15)
15. Fabio Fognini (16)
16. Tommy Robredo (18)
17. Nicolas Almagro (14)
18. Kei Nishikori (17)
19. Grigor Dimitrov (22)
20. Gilles Simon (19)
21. Jerzy Janowicz (20)
22. Kevin Anderson (21)
23. Ernests Gulbis (24)
24. Benoit Paire (28)
25. Vasek Pospisil (30)
26. Feliciano Lopez (27)
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
28. Dmitry Tursunov (26)
29. Florian Mayer (37)
30. Gael Monfils (32)
...
43. Jeremy Chardy (31)
52. Roberto Bautista Agut (62)
65. Bernard Tomic (57)
69. Janko Tipsarevic (52)
78. Stephane Robert (119)
128. Marcos Baghdatis (108)
162. Nick Kyrgios (183)
401. Thanasi Kokkinakis (570)

Imagine this discussion if Rafa ends on 17 slams.

I think then H2H becomes relevant...

Becker and Edberg both ended on six slams and Becker's H2H dominance is similar to Rafa's over Roger, but I'm not having Boris ahead of Stefan in any GOAT listing!

If Rafa ends up > or = Roger's slam count, then the keys will be

1. Rafa has been good on all surfaces (and probably will take the double career grand slam), but is driving up his slam count with total dominance on clay. That is different from Roger's all court dominance in his peak.
2. Rafa played against better competition in his peak.
3. Roger has had more overall success at majors. Even if Rafa ends up with more slam titles, Roger will still have more finals, SF, QF, etc.
4. Roger has never been injured, which has boosted his totals.
5. Rafa has the dominant head-to-head record, but this is somewhat biased. Off of the clay court, when Federer was in his prime, the matchup was fairly even. Their head-to-head matchups are heavily weighted in favor of clay and no one doubts that Rafa is better on clay.
6. Rafa is clearly GOAT on clay.

But all things considered it would be hard to make an argument against Rafa, but that's assuming he wins 4 more slams which is no guarantee.

was kinda half cut when i wrote that last post. bit premature declaring Rafa GOAT but on the balance i've found his career to date marginally more impressive than Fed's. Roger winning another slam would change everything though

i'm glad someone at TF did this, didn't have time over the weekend myself. following Li saving MP vs Safarova, all the WTA Slam winners since 2002 who've saved MPs en route to a Slam:

2014 Australian Open: Na saved 1 MP against Safarova in the 3R
2009 Wimbledon: Serena saved 1 MP against Dementieva in the SF
2005 Australian Open: Serena saved 3 MP against Sharapova in the SF
2005 French Open: Justine saved 2 MP against Kuznetsova in the 4R
2005 Wimbledon: Venus saved 1 MP against Davenport in the the F
2004 French Open: Myskina saved 1 MP against Kuznetsova in the 4R
2003 Australian Open: Serena saved 2 MP against Clijsters in the SF
2002 Australian Open: Capriati saved 4 MP against Hingis in the F

no idea when the last woman to save a MP in the first week was...

also on reflection, if there's any room for negativity around Stan's win, it's that this could be a foreshadowing of a post-Big Four ATP (one in which Delpo has flopped) - shades of 2002 and Johansson/Costa as Slam champions. Stan is better than those two but I don't think anyone would say that at the age of 28 he's suddenly become an elite Slam contender: until last year, he was pretty emphatically a level beneath even the perpetual Next Four.

With Li, one has to wonder how her career would have gone had she not taken three years off, three years which are usually crucial to a female player's development/establishment on Tour, to go to university. It's kind of a Capriati-esque situation, albeit their time off was for different reasons (but in both cases it enabled them to mature sufficiently...)

who knows about stan - he will get some nice draws from now on and he can beat anyone except nadal. a second slam is far from impossible.

I did not see the match (lol concert weekend) but... didn't he beat Nadal for the title? I understand there may be injury caveats but still

well yeah, injury caveats

it's probably a bit doublethinky to say "NO ASTERISKS FOR STAN'S SLAM" and also to maintain he can't beat average-level Rafa but that is my position

Well, at the moment I don't know that ANYONE can reliably beat average-level Rafa outside of Godmode Djokovic; the point is more "who can take advantage of situations" IMO and that's what Stan did here.

"taking advantage of a situation" is another way of dressing up "he caught nadal on a bad day", imo. stan is a nice player but he probably shouldn't be winning grand slams in this era. and if tennis needs anything it's an 18 year old breaking out and winning slams, not a 28 year old

the blog post i posted i thought was more interesting for how it laid out how difficult it is to compare players across eras, particularly because of the technological advancements. the game changes constantly -- the equipment is better now even than like six years ago, when i was playing competitively. it's insane. i fully agree in spirit with much of what lex said about matchups vs overall body of work though -- although i'd argue that nadal is right there in fed's ballpark -- what's the difference between 13 and 17 slams, really? those are both a lot of slams. and nadal obviously has shown that he can be the best player -- if not outright dominate -- on all surfaces, something most of us doubted he'd be able to do 5-6 years ago. i think he's gonna end up the pretty undisputed GOAT

as much as it pains me to admit it, given that i was such a big fed partisan back when the rivalry was really going

how difficult it is to compare players across eras, particularly because of the technological advancements

yeah i agreed with that post on this point, it's something i've long argued. like sure Serena and Federer are "better" players than, like, Evert and Laver and would beat them, but what if you trained Evert and Laver in the modern way/made Serena and Federer play with old-school racquets etc? too many unknowables, you can only rate them on how they did against their own era.

Oh don't get me wrong, I've been on the "Nadal is going to eclipse Federer one day" train since his first French Open win; I'm just saying that Stan's accomplishments shouldn't be downplayed as if all of these guys are unbeatable. No one is unbeatable.

yeah no doubt, and i've liked stan for a long time and it's nice to see him get a slam, but again men's tennis could use a breakout from a young kid in the worst way imo

i do wonder how the technology/fitness/nutrition etc advancements of the past few decades have had an effect on the age distribution of the players, though -- it seems that players are able to play at an elite level for longer and longer, maybe negating advantages of youth in some way?

PEDs too obviously

I personally find watching the career trajectories of players gradually improving before peaking in their late 20s a lot more satisfying than seeing them burst onto the scene and then be all burnt out at the age of 25 or whatever

agreed, and this is only slightly informed by me suddenly being middle-aged and afraid of change

I don't know about injury caveats at all: Nadal is beatable on hardcourts and grass on quite a few days. Not many players can take advantage but Stan had the game and tactics.

And he beat Djokovic. Although you could argue he's regressed since choosing Becker but I didn't see the match.

Stan's got an excellent game to look at. Its not about age so much as what kind of game that person brings.

I think both he and Del Potro can get another run to win another slam each.

watching this now; even with Nadal's back issues this is a great match