Will "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" Go to #1?

Speaking of Grammy buzz, maybe "Across the Universe" will get to #1 too arghahfhagfhgahahrhah

It could be one of those hot-shot debuts that starts out ridiculously high and sinks like a stone within three weeks (see: most American Idol singles). I think/hope that's the case with this.

I'd like to believe that, Barry, but considering that "Candy Shop" got to #1 in FIVE WEEKS (for contrast--"How We Do" has been climbing the charts for 15 weeks, and is still landlocked at #4) leads me to believe the public really digs this one.

If "Caught Up" makes it to #1, will that officially make Confessions (re-issued version) the Thriller of our generation? I don't even think MJ ever had five #1s on the same album.

How far is "Mr. Brightside" gonna go before stalling?

What a depressing question.

Keep in mind that there have only been eleven one-week #1s this decade. And from 2002-03, every single song to hit #1 was a multiple-week #1. The last one-week #1 was that Fantasia single last summer.

This decade needs some variety already, or else it will go down as the most boring decade ever. I was elated to finally see more than 2 rock songs in the top 50 of the Hot 100 this week.

(Note: "Magic Stick" went to #2, but then the joke doesn't work, so I lied.)

My reasoning was
1. BoBD has been a steady climber that has now received a big popular boost. That's a good combination.

2. Competition between the 50Cent tracks ... yeah, it's not really the same as the "vote splitting" you see in polls, but there is something to be said for it, particularly with regard to radio playlists.

Multiple appearances in the top ten or top five aren't *that* uncommon anymore, but is the 50 Cent hype really strong enough right now to sustain this? Maybe ... his album is out in only two weeks.

3. "Candy Shop" is new enough that it could slip to #2 and return to #1.

Anyhow, it looks like there's only a one or two week window remaining for Green Day to pull this off. If they don't make it to #1 by mid-March, then they can forget it.

By "they" I hope you mean Reprise, because I'm sure Green Day doesn't care.

doesn't care about having #1 single? in the history of recorded music, there's never been a pop musician who didn't dream of having a #1 record. of course they care.

Actually, he did: Bad yielded #1s in "I Just Can't Stop Loving You," "Bad," "The Way You Make Me Feel," "Man in the Mirror," and "Dirty Diana."

Question about "Across the Universe": Billboard lists the artist as "Various Artists." Is that really how it's billed on the single? Criminy!

Sadly, "Magic Candy Stick Shop" ain't letting go of the throne anytime soon. Everything else in the Top 10 is just kind of lingering there. I think Usher's done at #9 with "Caught Up."

dammit, that pretty much refutes my earlier post about mariah being the king of the #1's. i give the lie to my name!

Uhhh...in what way?

Personaly I hope it stalls just outside of the top 20, properly setting up what hopefully will be a slam dunk in single #3, "Smile Like You Mean It" (if they blow this, they have no one but themselves to blame).

2. Competition between the 50Cent tracks ... yeah, it's not really the same as the "vote splitting" you see in polls, but there is something to be said for it, particularly with regard to radio playlists.

Multiple appearances in the top ten or top five aren't *that* uncommon anymore, but is the 50 Cent hype really strong enough right now to sustain this? Maybe ... his album is out in only two weeks.

Vote splitting amons singles doesn't appear to exist--evidence OutKast, Usher, etc.

Crossover from what to what? It's rock, I think.

A couple weeks ago I was watching TV and "Boulevard" was on three different stations at the same time. Needless to say, that doesn't happen much.

It's still a much, much better choice for a single than anything else left on the abum.

I think "Midnight Show" or "Jenny Was A Friend Of Mine" or whatever the hell it's called could both do well in modern rock charts.

Green Day holding at #2, with the climbing "Disco Inferno" making 50's third single in the top five this week (with #4, "Hate it or Love It," ascending rapidly to #28). All Eyez on 50 Cent, indeed.

Not looking good for our boys in eye shadow.

Stunned by "Brightside"'s rapid ascent (I think "Somebody Told Me" was far superior) but pleased that the J.Lo track missed the Top 10. And 3 Doors Down sticking with formula but stalling at #38 is encouraging ...

Mr. Brightside is the shit! It's swoonier too. A swirling beauty, a technicolor epic, FIVE STARS.

"Mr. Brightside" and "Somebody Told Me" are both classics, yeah.

And yeah, y100 going down broke my heart. I don't know what I'm going to look forward to on my trips home now. Still got WaWa, I suppose.

They should just dub the song over an old Heathcliff cartoon.

Dr. Bill: this is great, what you're doing, much aking to what Swygart was doing with the UK charts. Plese keep it up! Rockcrit/chartgeek types such as myself NEED you. Bravo.

I'd stay in bed staring at the TV all day for a glimpse of this.

Dr. Bill: this is great, what you're doing, much aking to what Swygart was doing with the UK charts.

Much appreciated, though Swygart comparisons will ultimately leave all cruelly disappointed.

Apparently a mashup of "Karma" and Stevie's "Superstition" has been making the rounds. Is it possible Alicia's getting airplay points based on this?

I guess it's possible. I don't know what billboard's policy is with mashups (and I doubt they really do, either).

Bunch of new ones in the top 50 this week. ILM growing favorite Brooke Valentine (#49) is among them--"Girlfight," like Nivea's "Okay," is a Lil' Jon-produced slice of crunk-n-b which is very good but in no way great. ILM experts say that other songs on the album are better, from what I've heard, I'm inclined to disagree, but I haven't listened enough for a fair judgement. Big Boi's verse is pretty lame. The video is kinda hot.

Also, Bowling For Soup (#48). "1985" was one of the five or so worst singles of last year (though perhaps let's not get into that debate again) but this is much better, and not just because they use the word "breastes". It's endearing in all the ways "1985" grated, it's got hooks that are just as catchy but only half as annoying. Surprisingly good stuff.

And Baby Bash (#45). Who is this guy? Has he always existed? Should I care? Anyone who's heard this song, help me out.

Surprisingly, Melissa and Joss don't quite fall off the charts this week, merely slipping 14 to #46. Not as swift and merciless as I had hoped, but I'll take it, I suppose. Peace to 'em next week. J. Lo is a week or two from falling out herself, and thank god, though her new single w/ Fat Joe (when your duet has me wishing for Ja Rule and Ashanti, bad sign) is even worse. Jet and Three Doors Down, for some reason, continue to climb one-three spots a week, undeterred. The Jet song sets new standards for averageness, I think. BRING BACK THE ROCKNROLL MOTEHRUCFCKERs!!!

Good news, though--"Oh!" is up 23 this week, landing at #35. First couple times I heard it, I was thinking top ten of the year. I've cooled on it a bit since, but it's still pretty great--double props for giving Luda more than 8-12 bars to work with, sounding like a genuine guest spot instead of just a Hitchcock-ian cameo. Wish the video was a bit better, though.

And Trent is in the top 40! I remember how surprised I was in 1999 when "The Day the World Went Away," a song I don't think I heard once on the radio and didn't even have a video debuted at #17. This is like that, though "The Hand That Feeds" only makes a #31 placement. Call it the Conor Oberst factor, I suppose, though even he didn't sell enough to get on the top 100, despite his OutKast-like grip on the top two spots of the single sales charts. Anyway, has anyone heard the NiN song yet? I still haven't gotten around to it, somehow.

Omarion is back to climbing, for some reason. If this song goes top 20, I'll be so frustrated that I'll skip watching You Got Served the next time I catch it on Cinemax out of protest. OK, empty threat, but whatever. "Sugar" is up one but running out of momentum, but T.I. is up seven to #23 and Luda is 20 away from his self-fulfilling prophecy. Best of luck, Lude. Mariah mercifully falls out of the top 20 this week, though somehow her awful vid is #1 on TRL. Bizarre.

Will Smith and Amerie are both in the top 20 this week, #19 and #17 respectively. The Amerie song just keeps on getting better and better, and it's cool to see that others agree. Top ten seems entirely likely at this point. Not much other movement in the teens this week, besides Akon climbing to #12 with "Lonely"--still perhaps the most unlikely hit of the year thusfar.

Gwen, Usher and Mario still somehow maintain their grasps on the bottom half of the top ten this week, but we got lots of movement in the top five this week. Green Day finally falls out of #2, dropping to #5 this week--the dream is over, but it's almost a relief at this point. Doubtful that "Holiday" will go top ten, but it's pretty good, and should be good enough for a top 40 follow-up. As everyone predicted, "Obsession (No Es Amor)" appears to have peaked at #3, and slips one to #4. Game and Fiddy are at #3 this week (could my 6-3-2-1 prediction possibly be right?), which means that "Since U Been Gone" is actually at #2 this week! It seemed unlikely, but could Kelly be the one to break the Nickelback curse? Not strictly a rock song per se (and one that gets play on absolutely 0 rock stations, if I'm not mistaken), but close enough--I'd certainly take it for the time being. Anyway, I don't think it'll happen--expect it to swap positions with "Hate it or Love It" this week--but "Since U Been Gone" still makes for a VERY worthy #2 single. Congrats, Kelly.

Needless to say, "Candy Shop" is still #1.

The Hot 100 is so frustrating. If a song you don't like is at #1, too bad - it will be there for half of the damn year.

Yeah, it's especially ridiculous when you look at lists of the #1 singles from each year, and how they keep getting smaller and smaller. I think as early as 1990, there were about 20-25 #1 singles a year, but now we're lucky if we get a dozen. How fucking annoying.

If memory serves, it was "Starfuckers" that was getting airplay, but Billboard, feeling a little squeamish about the title, used the flip as the "charting" side.

I'm amazed that Kelly's at 2 -- I can't even remember the last time a female-sung rock song hit #1. Seriously, does anyone here know? Do we have to go all the way back to "Black Velvet"?

As for Melissa and Joss -- that performance was actually getting some radio airplay when I was in Boston this past weekend. As oversung as one might expect but it was nevertheless great to hear someone belting. Doesn't happen nearly enough these days.

Great summary once again, Doc.

If we count Lisa Loeb (which I think we probably should), "Stay" in '94 would be the last example of this.

No kidding, huh.

I seriously underestimated "Candy Shop" by figuring that it would get knocked off relatively quickly by one of the other 893 tracks that 50 had in the chart. At the time I didn't think it was a good record, so of course I said that. Now I think it's very good (and I must still refrain from calling it a great record because 50 brings nothing to the table on this track. He's useless).

I'll root for Kelly Clarkson even though I think Dr. Bill is right about the Game and 50 overtaking her next week.

Wow. You have that completely backwards. Not that 1985 was great, but Almost is fucking terrible.

nah, The Day The World Went Away was the title/a-side of the retail single that Starfuckers was also on, but it wasn't until months later that Starfuckers was the 2nd video and got some radio play.

why do I even know that?

First things first--looks like it could be the last week for Gavin DeGraw, thank god. Also not long for this world is Nivea's "Okay"--frankly I'm surprised that this one didn't chart higher. Not too sad by it, though--it was fairly Jon-by-#s. In any event, "Okay"'s doppleganger of sorts, Brooke Valentine's "Girlfight," is doing much better, up four to #45 this week. The first new entry on the top 50 is its most unfortunate--Howie Day, a guy so bland he makes Ryan Cabrera look like a Ying Yang Twin by comparison.

"Be Yourself" (#39) sends Audioslave into the top 40 for the second time. Hven't heard it myself, but prelimenary reports are not good, and frankly I'd be shocked if it was anything better than mediocre--has anything they've done since "Cochise" been? Also new to the top fifty is Gwen Stefani's "Hollaback Girl" (#37)--only heard parts thusfar, seems tremendously unexciting in a world where "Lose My Breath" already exists, but I could be wrong. "Wait" stalls this week, slipping one to #35. Luckily, so does Three Doors Down (#34), their march of terror finally starting to let up. Surprisingly enough, NiN also slips one this week--not surprised that it's falling, but I thought it'd be off the top 50 for certain, now that the first-week sales factor is out of the way."Slow Down" is up nine to #31. I was disappointed with this song, actually--given the hotness of most current R&B and the positive things I'd heard about it, I'd expect something far more interesting than "No Letting Go" without the Dwali rhythm. Oh well.

The most surprising thing about this week's charts is easily the debut at #25, Weezer's "Beverly Hills". For some context, they haven't had a top 100 hit in over a decade (with "Undone - The Sweater Song") and that didn't even crack the top 50. The lead single off of their last album barely even cracked the modern rock top ten. So what gives? Is there some new scoring technicality that this single somehow managed to take advantage of? Has their rep grown considerably since Maladroit, even though that album was basically a flop? Or is the song just that much more popular than past singles of theirs? It doesn't make sense to me in the slightest. But it's pretty fucking cool anyway.

Other big climber in the top 25 this week is Ciara's "Oh," up 12 to #23. Hopefully my prediction of it being her third single to sail into the top five were accurate. It certainly deserves it. "Karma" continues to meaninglessly oscillate within the 20s, up five this week to #21. T.I. and Trick both show signs of aging, each slipping one this week. Within the top 20, Luda is climbing but starting to lose momentum, up two to #19. Amerie and The Killers are both up one (meaning "Mr. Brightside" now has the slightly superior distinction of being a top 15 single), and Natalie and Trillville both continue to slip. I'm disappointed Natalie didn't go top ten--feels like I barely even got a chance to know the song, and now it's leaving. Bummer. Rob Thomas and Will Smith are both up five this week--good for them.

Lots of meaningless short-change in the bottom half of the top ten this week. Continuing its absolutely inexplicable ascent to the top is Akon's "Lonely," climbing SEVEN to #5 this week. Why? How? WTF? And disappointingly, my prediction came true--The Game and Kelly Clarkson swap places this week, dashing dreams of a technical break of the Nickelback curse. Looks like now we'll have to wait for Barry's prediction of an American Idol rock #1 to come true before there's a chance of a #1 rock coup. And, of course, "Candy Shop" is #1 again, though I hope that within the next two weeks, it'll be replacced by "Hate it or Love It". Could Akon possibly go to #1? Unbelievable.

Killers fall out of the top ten on the albums chart this week, but none other than the Killers' arch nemeses on this planet, The Bravery, debut at #18 this week. Hopefully this was a peak that will not be broached again--it's cool that times are as such that a second-rate Killers can still go top twenty, but they don't desrve much more than that. More exciting are Beanie Sigel at #3 (I've heard really good things about this album--anyone wanna confirm / dispute?) and Beck at #2--easily his highest album charting to date. Who'd think that over a decade since "Loser" he'd be more popular than ever? Surprising to me, anyway.

link

You are.

ITUNES MOTHERFUCKING STORE

That sorta cheapens the victory, doesn't it?

1. Beverly Hills - Weezer
2. Switch - Will Smith
3. Lonely No More - Rob Thomas
4. Hollaback Girl - Gwen Stefani
5. Mr. Brightside - The Killers
6. Lonely - Akon
7. Be Yourself - Audioslave
8. Since U Been Gone - Kelly Clarkson
9. Boulevard of Broken Dreams - Green Day
10. Rich Girl - Gwen Stefani & Eve

My only problem with this system is that it sort of rings of affirmative action. Weezer debuting at #25 just isn't as cool as it would've been before this new system was instated.

I also predicted that "Candy Shop" wouldn't have much staying power, but I really hope I'm right about the AI coup.

I am glad that 50 kept Beck from having a #1 debut. Man, if it wasn't for 50 both Beck and Jack Johnson would have had #1 debuts recently! And they said rock was dead.

"Okay," "Baby I'm Back" and "Collide" all climb significantly in the 40s this week. 112 and Foxy Brown jump into the top 40 with "U Already Know"--I really dig it, only heard once or twice but it sounds like their best single since "Only You". Exciting. Brooke Valentine works her way up to #37, and Audioslave are one spot away from "Be Yourself" being their biggest single yet at #32. Highest new-on to the top 50 this week is (brace yourselves) 50 Cent, with "Just a Lil Bit". I haven't heard it yet, but the chances of it being a cover of 2 in a Room's "Wiggle It" are pretty slim. In any event, I figure it'll be in the top five by May (maybe in time to swap places with whatever song of his is #1 at the time on top). "Wait (The Whisper Song)" climbs to #30--apparently the vid debuted on M2, but I haven't caught it yet. Look forward to that.

Bobby Valentine climbs six to #25. I've decided that I really don't like the song much at all--really, what is there about it to like? Still beats "How Could You," but I don't get the love for it apart from that. Trick continues to fall, T.I. stalls at #24, and it looks like Ludacris might not be coming for that #1 spot after all, ducking out of the top 20 and hitting at #22 this week. On a more positive note, however, "How We Do" appears to be finished with cluttering up the top ten, dropping to #21 this week.

Usher and Ciara both take mercifully similar falls, falling eight each to #11 and #19 respectively. Passing herself on the way down, Ciara also rises six to #17 with "Oh!," hopefully going top ten before the month is out. The Killers continue to sputter out, slipping one to #16 this week. "Switch" is up two to #12, but by far the most notable thing about the top 20 this week is Weezer's remarkable ascension to #13 with "Beverly Hills"--I figured it was one of those Hot Shot Debut types that'd start to plummet once it got out of the gate, but man--looks like it might go top ten. Insanity.

Swapping places with herself in the top ten is Gwen Stefani, whose "Rich Girl" falls to #11 (thank god) but whose "Hollaback Girl" jumps 28 spots (!!!) to #10. I heard it all the way thorugh for the first time recently, and John, looks like you were right--I question certain apsects of it, but on the whole it's phenomenal. Glad to see it doing so well. Also new to the top ten are Rob Thomas at #9 (decided that I like his song much, much more than any M-20 song--between this and "Smooth," is it possible that the rest of the band was actually holding back a considerable talent? I'd never have guessed) and even more excitingly, Amerie, jumping eight to land at #8 this week. Guess you guys were officially right about that one.

Unfortunately, that's all the movement worth reporting in the top ten this week. "Obsession" and "Lonely" switch up #5 and #4, but aside from that, it's totally static, meaning that "Candy Shop" is #1 again (for the eighth week, I believe). FUCK CANDY SHOP, indeed. Next week, it goes down to "Hate it or Love It". Or else.

Or maybe wait until "Candy Shop" finally drops and start the new thread in celebration of that event (even though he won't actually be vacating #1, since it'll probably be 50+Game taking over).

"Lonely No More" >>> "Lonely"