what 2010 albums would probably be selling gajillions of copies if music sales were still representative of the popularity of recorded albums

1. Nas & Damian Marley

i imagine the lack of any music purchases at college campuses across the country really put a dent in that one

i suppose 2 arcade fire, 3 black keys, 4 big boi, 5 of montreal... but obviously theres no way to say for sure.

Who says they aren't?

i suppose 2 arcade fire, 3 black keys, 4 big boi, 5 of montreal... but obviously theres no way to say for sure.

― billstevejim, Tuesday, October 5, 2010 2:37 AM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

see these are all acts i dont think would be doing noticeably better

I think the Black Keys would definitely be doing bigger numbers, they have the Rolling Stone crowd love and huge love from the Bonaroo crowd.

ok yeah that one i wasnt sure on

I mean, this is a pretty tough question, I keep trying to come up with something but its so hard to say because I keep thinking in terms of today's industry. I wanted to say Gaslight Anthem for one, but I'm not so sure about them either.

is the nas & damian marley album any good btw? just wonderin

Question needs to be broken up. Which artists have a higher profile than they would without filesharing etc? Which artists are disproportionately losing out? Who's coming through unscathed, proportionally speaking?

2009 but tsvrd would be triple platinum if released in 2003.

Some of the most popular acts of today would rather sell a lot of singles I can imagine some rappers and mainstream hard rockers would perform better in the charts though. Plus AC/DC, Iron Maiden and Metallica would all fill the album charts with re-entering oldies.

Which artists have a higher profile than they would without filesharing etc?

Katie Melua, Norah Jones, Il Divo.

Speaking of the past 10 years in general here, not just the past year.

is the nas & damian marley album any good btw? just wonderin

Defo worth a listen - some great tracks, some cheese.

Those strike me as artists who would have sold shedloads regardless. Ditto Amy Winehouse.

I think it's quite possible that, say, The Arcade Fire, Vampire Weekend or LCD Soundsystem might be doing significantly worse.

(xpost to Geir)

i think breaking this question down that way is interesting/informative

i mean i think theres the entire rap underground of plies-like artists who bridge that suburban teen - URBAN YOUTH demo & havent been selling basically since the kids got computers

So many artists "don't" "release" singles anymore.

They do have 'hits', i.e. played all over the place, and people go "I like that" and buy the CD/Download the album.

e.g. Gorillaz.

xpost I dunno, "A Punk" would conceivably have been a big hit. But they released it as a limited double-pack with a CD and 7" single instead.

is the nas & damian marley album any good btw? just wonderin

Has 3-4 great songs, and a bunch of passable tracks, and a couple that make me cringe. Peaks on the first track, sadly.

Mark, we're talking albums not singles. 'Singles' are still selling shitloads if you include legal downloads.

i know a lot of rap fans who really like it. but they tend to be dudes who go for, like, jam band type ish anyway

I know, I was replying to Geir.

Although, Albums did get driven by initial single sales.

I don't think that is just because of firesharing though deej. 1. mixtape culture boom, 2. kids worn out from buying shitty too long rap lps 98-03 may have learnt that a hot single doesn't make a record worth yr money or time, 3. the old guard (both listeners and artists) have largely moved to the point of not being anything similar to what it is today. (i.e. no new york, confused by mixtapes and southern breaks, dance crazes, flows etc.) As they grow older and are more likely to be the ones prosperous enough to buy tons of records - they don't have anything they are used to buying coming out. Which reminds me...

#whatever number we are on - madlib.

Big Boi strikes me as the sort of album that might be disproportionately suffering. Ditto the Soundgarden album. I doubt either of them would be selling Coldplay style units, but they're long-established artists with anticipated releases and sizeable fanbases a lot of whom would have immediately downloaded the leak when previously they'd have gone out to the record shop on release day.

Then you have your Cassies and Ciaras and what have you whose careers have been totally wrecked by album leakage.

On top of that there are acts like The Knife and Burial who could have had Maxinquaye/Dummy/Blue Lines style word of mouth hits in a different era.

Actually I'm not sure the Knife or Burial would got any word of mouth without the internet, scratch that last para.

You remember when Radiohead did that internet album, yeah?

I always thought that if it had been Babyshambles doing that, everyone that wanted it as a d/l would all have opted to pay zero for it.

I do think their first album would maybe have sold a fair bit, had it not been for all the 'sharing' sites negating the need.

The Knife could have gotten word of mouth via careful distribution of the videos

burial would be huge in a blue lines style! all those shitty articles about is he banksy or whatever, 'urban decay', dubstep as the sound of the age needing a coffee table figurehead.

yeah, in the 90s you had tons of alt acts/acts emerging from the dance underground who actually shifted units and got in the charts, like matt says; and it's easy to see who their equivalents are now, but...without the units and chart placings. (then again were massive attack, tricky et al ever known for their touring schedules like most bands now are?)

i dont think big boi is disproportionately suffering. he has no hits, & the only buzz is from pfork type sites & rap nerds.

2. kids worn out from buying shitty too long rap lps 98-03 may have learnt that a hot single doesn't make a record worth yr money or time,
#whatever number we are on - madlib.

― a hoy hoy, Tuesday, October 5, 2010 9:18 AM (3 hours ago) Bookmark

i call bs on this one too -- kids arent 'worn out from buying shitty too long rap lps' 1st off cuz there are always 'new kids' and secondly because why would that happen now instead of any other time in recorded pop history?? its also a bullshit stereotype about rap albums

the big boi is more like the kind of record nerds wd be all "omg the masses are dum" about

To be honest its not THAT ridiculous of a complaint about their being too many overlong rap LPs, but I agree with irt "kids".

"there" ugh

now? during/after the biggest world recession in living memory? can't think of why ppl would prefer to use their money on something other than 6 weed carrier skits. xpost

I always thought the "I'm just a maaaaaaaaaan, trying to get my hustle on" piano crooner on T.I.'s Urban Legend album flatout ELEVATED it man!

Burial actively shuns the spotlight so wouldn't have been quite as visible/successful as most 90s dance acts who crossed over.

Hasn't the Nas & Damian Marley cd received mostly mixed reviews. Is it getting much club play, or video attention, or radio attention? Not sure why you think it would be huge in a different era.

How about Kenny Chesney.

he probably still sells a shitton of actual cds too right?

I feel like I don't really have a good bead on what demographics still buy albums and which have stopped.

Obviously, older folks are in the former camp, which explains why, e.g., Sade did such good biz with her most recent album. But what about kids? Are teens and preteens more likely to download for free because they're more technologically savvy, or are they less likely, since their parents won't let them?

Similarly, I have no idea how it breaks down along socioeconomic lines, or urban/rural, or what have you.

Or different genres even. Indie-rock and hip-hop fans probably download a lot because there's a whole online framework (i.e. blogs, websites, etc.) that implicitly encourages it. My guess is that country doesn't have this same framework? But I'm not sure.

If a (pre)teen has a certain amount of pocket money, his/her own computer 'for school' and a want to listen to a bunch of things - they certainly aren't going to be adverse to illegal downloading no matter what their parents say.

So then why does Bieber still sell shedloads?

(I suppose because there are still a lot of kids, especially younger ones, that don't have their own computer or the wherewithal to figure out how to download stuff illegally.)

Obviously, older folks are in the former camp, which explains why, e.g., Sade did such good biz with her most recent album. But what about kids? Are teens and preteens more likely to download for free because they're more technologically savvy, or are they less likely, since their parents won't let them?

my niece (7 yrs old) seems to like to get CDs of like taylor swift and miley cyrus etc because they are a "present" and an object, i don't think a mp3 would really resonate with her, or doesn't seem to....even if later they are ripped into the ipod they listen to music with, i think she likes getting "stuff" still maybe cuz mp3s seem intangible to her, like she's not getting anything

Actually, you know what albums still sell? Albums that people buy as gifts. No one gives burned CDs as presents, unless they don't mind being seen as cheap.

So not only do old people still buy CDs themselves, but young people buy CDs *for* old people. Hence Michael Buble, Susan Boyle, etc.

Ha, xpost. That's a good point, M@tt.

yeah getting someone an itunes card still seems like NAGL in some ways

i feel sort of the same as m@tt's niece.

my niece otm

major label rap LPs have been steadily getting shorter in the past 5 years, and presence of skits has been on the wane for about 10, you guys sound clueless and old when you gripe about that shit

So not only do old people still buy CDs themselves, but young people buy CDs *for* old people. Hence Michael Buble, Susan Boyle, etc.

This may account for big sales for such "old people" artists around Christmastime, but doesn't really play into why these folks still have huge first-week sales if they release an album in, say, March, or July.

ship - i was saying why i thought ppl stopped buying them in the first place 5 years ago! and lps only got shorter because all the overlong tripe was put on mixtapes.

my parents buy cds that i then need to rip and put on their ipods.

major label rap LPs have been steadily getting shorter in the past 5 years, and presence of skits has been on the wane for about 10, you guys sound clueless and old when you gripe about that shit

― I had figured that jeremih birthday sex was some indie band (some dude), Tuesday, October 5, 2010 1:19 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

i would welcome a renaissance of the drive-by skit

I still buy lots of CD's – older catalog titles on Amazon and newer ones. I still haven't gotten the hang of storing music amorphously on a hard drive.

yeah, me neither. though i just moved to a new house, and i started seriously considering going totally digital. that'll wear off once my back stops hurting, though.

Obviously space is becoming a problem.

For some reason I imagine stuff like Arcade Fire has a big percentage of people who download/listen/discuss/enjoy but would not be very motivated if they had to go out and pay for it. I.e., a crowd that's listening to "stay informed" as much as just enjoy the thing.

BTW, if you're comparing stuff like Burial to similar 90s acts, I wouldn't underestimate the value of all that press and rave-review stuff -- those overheated reviews used to really motivate folks to go to the store and confidently buy that record, and if the music actually paid up on everything the review promised, that old word-of-mouth thing would definitely get going. Not having a vocalist would surely keep Burial from being like Portishead, but in a 1996-type world I could definitely imagine that album taking off as a mood purchase, you know?

major label rap LPs have been steadily getting shorter in the past 5 years, and presence of skits has been on the wane for about 10, you guys sound clueless and old when you gripe about that shit

in case you are still having trouble reading, note that the OP in question specifically mentioned the "98-03" timeframe

yeah, but anyone who was buying rap albums in 98 is at least my age (24). "kids" weren't buying rap albums in that era.

Hasn't the Nas & Damian Marley cd received mostly mixed reviews. Is it getting much club play, or video attention, or radio attention? Not sure why you think it would be huge in a different era.

How about Kenny Chesney.

― curmudgeon, Tuesday, October 5, 2010 12:44 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

what on earth would reviews have to do with sales

http://gapersblock.com/transmission/NCFINALFLYER.jpg

nas & damien marley have a collegiate hippie market down cold.

but 'music is supposed to be free maaaan' + living in the shanty dorms = huge #s of lost sales

u go to most message boards about rap even & theres this huge silent majority of ppl who think thats one of the best / 'deepest' rap records of the year

i mean i think it sucks but im just saying

What is Umphrey's McGee?

jam band shit

Can we make Nas/Damian and De La Soul swap places, then it'd make a lot more sense IMO...

For some reason I imagine stuff like Arcade Fire has a big percentage of people who download/listen/discuss/enjoy but would not be very motivated if they had to go out and pay for it. I.e., a crowd that's listening to "stay informed" as much as just enjoy the thing.

I think this is very much the kind of audiences that Spotify appeals too, i.e. listening to the stuff, deciding whether to buy it, and then going to the shop to buy it.

The indie rock camp is still rather albums oriented, and if you are albums oriented, it is more natural for you to go in the shop to buy the CD than to download every single track from the album legally. Of course they may still do it illegally, but if the album proves to be good, it is not unlikely they will actually go to the shop and pay for the CD.

This also for the obvious reason the typical indie fan is at least 5-10 years older than the typical chart pop (songs, not albums) fan, and as such more likely to have money to afford to pay for the purchase.

Geir, this is maybe the most otm thing you have ever said on ilm!

IMO

What is Umphrey's McGee?
--Rob Liefeld pose (chap)

Humphrey's McGee is the correct spelling, old boy.

Geir, this is maybe the most otm thing you have ever said on ilm!

Yeah, co-sign.

yeah, in the 90s you had tons of alt acts/acts emerging from the dance underground who actually shifted units and got in the charts, like matt says; and it's easy to see who their equivalents are now, but...without the units and chart placings. (then again were massive attack, tricky et al ever known for their touring schedules like most bands now are?)

Dude, MAGNETIC MAN. That album is the exact equivalent of a Blue Lines/Leftism/Dig Your Own Hole.

if it is then so are the Pendulum albums, and Pendulum probably do only sell a tenth of what they "should"

Pendulum is a good answer to this question.

Btw. it is ironic that Metallica is so much at the forefront of the movement against illegal downloading. Being that illegal downloading has probably brought them a bucketload of fans who pay considerably more for seeing them live at every tour (and Metallica play live more often than most stadium size acts) than they ever would have done for purchasing those CDs.

What? Metallica were one of the biggest bands in the pre-internet world.

I know, but they have gotten themselves a new generation of fans who tend to download music illegaly.

is that magnetic man record worth checking btw?

It's pretty good, and I say this as a dubstep hater. Probably deserves its own thread.

Probably deserves its own thread.

let's not go overboard.

i haven't heard the full magnetic man album, the sampler was only ok. the next single, the katy b one, is really good but...it's drum'n'bass!

It's proper 90s style rave pop really.

Both the Katy B tunes on the album are really good actually. But you're wading through a fair bit of boring stuff there.

I like them both better than Katy On A Mission. Still, it's going to be pretty big in the UK, the sort of crossover dance record that Britain hasn't really had since the 90s.

I say dance, but with the exception of Perfect Stranger none of it made me want to dance at all.

i don't really get why "i need air" was such a big success, it doesn't leap out to me at all.

"katy on a mission" and "louder" >>>>>> anything i've heard off the magnetic man album.

Top Ten [U.S.] Selling Albums
1. Recovery/ Eminem 3,415,000
2. Need You Now/ Lady Antebellum3,089,000
3. Speak Now/ Taylor Swift 2,960,000
4. My World 2.0/ Justin Bieber 2,319,000
5. The Gift/ Susan Boyle 1,852,000
6. Fame/ Lady Gaga 1,591,000
7. Soldier Of Love/ Sade 1,300,000
8. Thank Me Later/ Drake 1,269,000
9. Raymond V Raymond/ Usher 1,183,000
10. Animal/ Ke$ha 1,143,000

I ask this every year to no avail, but hey, maybe this is the lucky one. If anyone has a Billboard or Nielsen subscription, pretty please share the top 100-200 sellers of the year?

#1 Selling Albums
2009 Taylor Swift - Fearless 3,217,000
2008 Lil Wayne - Tha Carter III 2,874,000
2007 Josh Groban - Noel 3,699,000
2006 High School Musical 3,719,071
2005 Mariah Carey - Emancipation of Mimi 4,968,606
2004 Usher - Confessions 7,978,594
2003 50 Cent - Get Rich Or Die Tryin' 6,535,809
2002 Eminem - The Eminem Show 7,807,925
2001 Linkin Park - Hybrid Theory 4,812,852
2000 NSYNC - No Strings Attached 9,936,104
1999 Backstreet Boys - Millenium 9,445,732
1998 Titanic Soundtrack 9,338,061
1997 Spice Girls - Spice 5.3
1996 Alanis Morisette - Jagged Lil Pill 7.38
1995 Hootie - Cracked Rear View Mirror 7
1994 The Lion King Soundtrack 10
1993 The Bodyguard Soundtrack 11,376,951
1992 Billy Ray Cyrus - Some Gave All 4,832,000
1991 Garth Brooks - Ropin' The Wind 4

2010 Report came out yesterday - http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110106006565/en/Nielsen-Company-Billboard%E2%80%99s-2010-Music-Industry-Report

U.S. Album Sales
2010 443.4 million
2009 489.8
2008 535.4
2007 584.9
2006 646.4
2005 654.1
2004 680.7
2003 687
2002 693

Digital Album Sales
2010 86.3 million
2009 76.4
2008 65.8
2007 50.0
2006 32.6
2005 16.2
2004 5.5

Digital Track Sales</b
2010 1,172 million
2009 1,159
2008 1,070
2007 844.2
2006 581.9
2005 352.7
2004 140.9
2003 19.2

[b]Total LP Album Sales
2010 2.8 million
2009 2.5
2008 1.88
2007 .99

Interesting bits: Zac Brown Band was the #9 top selling artist with 1,824,000 units sold. I never heard of 'em! "California Gurls" by Katy Perry feat. Snoop Dogg was top selling digital song, at 4,398,000. Maybe I should give it a listen. Taio Cruz has two songs in the top ten. The XX - XX was the #10 selling vinyl album at 10,200, just behind Dark Side Of The Moon, heh. Lady Antebellum sold the most physical albums with Need You Now at 2,707,000 units.

thanks for posting this, really fascinating

More U.S. Album Sales:
2001 763
2000 785
1998 711
1997 652

Rap was the only genre that experienced growth last year, at 3%.

The bestselling ones?

Otherwise, the statistics speak volumes here, but still: If digital downloading (legal or illegal) didn't exist, would people still buy albums to the same extent? After all, compilations like the "Now" ones had an impact even in the pre-downloads age, steering particularly younger audiences more towards single tracks rather than albums/long term favourite acts.

Interesting bits: Zac Brown Band was the #9 top selling artist with 1,824,000 units sold. I never heard of 'em!

They won Best New Artist at last year's Grammys.

Heh, serves me right for not paying attention to the Grammies.

I didn't post data from before 1996 because I'm not sure if it was from Nielsen, but 1991 album (cd/cassette/lp) sales were something under 280 million, which is still significantly less than 2010 sales, which is roughly what the figures were around 1994. You didn't hear people whining about how badly the music industry was doing then. Of course, it was growing, not shrinking. I firmly believe sales would have peaked a year earlier, in 1999, if it weren't for Napster. There was solid evidence back then that Napster inspired a spike in sales in 2000, as people became aware of a greater variety of music than before. Bear in mind that it was shut down by 2001, and other P2P clients did not see nearly as heavy use yet. With or without filesharing, CD sales could only grow for so long. Replacing old cassettes and lps slowed down, and more people started questioning the value of paying $15 to $18 per album on CD.

Look how new e-book technology is, yet you can save 40 to 80% on the price of new books by getting them digitally. Well over a decade after digital music entered the market, you still can't get digital albums for much under $10, despite the astronomically lower costs of manufacturing, materials, distribution and resale. $1 or more per song or $10 an album is just not a good value, and the industry's refusal to budget is just a colossal cock-up.

I'm selling off more and more of my CDs to free up space, saving only special editions and other rarities. I'd be happy to pay for downloads, as long as they're lossless and a reasonable price. Going rate for most lossless files are $1.50 a song, when they're available at all, which is complete bullshit. I can buy a CD on sale or used for under $10, rip it and sell it back for $4. $5 to $6 would be the sweet spot, and is perfectly reasonable. I got a lot of my tapes new on sale for $5.99 before I bought CDs. And before that I paid an average of $3.50 to $4.50 each for vinyl albums through the record clubs, including all the shipping and handling. And we also happen to be in the worst goddamn recession in a lot of peoples' lifetimes. I think an industry-wide price adjustment would certainly spur a big spike in sales.

refusal to budget -- budge, not budget

"I think an industry-wide price adjustment would certainly spur a big spike in sales."

This will happen eventually. God only knows how much money the industry will lose and potential fans they will miss out on until deciding to pull the trigger. In the meantime all those what.cd accounts and Rapidshare links aren't going anywhere.

My impression is it is already happening to some extent. Not with all titles, but discounts are being more and more usual - obv. the kind of discount where a certain record company have sent a bulk of discounted items of a certain title out to the record stores.

In Norway, there have also been some major acts who have lately sold their CDs in local grocery stores for about half the price of what the same titles cost in the record shops (debatable whether this is a good thing or not, particularly as only the very biggest acts can benefit from this, but it still happens and may be a sign)

I know any answer to this question would be speculation but who is buying physical copies of Eminem: Recovery? The rest of the 2010 TOP TEN PHYSICAL ALBUMS I can sorta figure out. I guess I'm just surprised that physical albums still outsell digital ones...by a lot.

Also, the DIGITAL TRACK SALES BY DECADE list was really bizarre. Who uses such a list? And why stop at the 1940s? No one downloaded Gene Greene's "King of the Bungaloos" last year?

I know any answer to this question would be speculation but who is buying physical copies of Eminem: Recovery?

30 year olds.

people who were 19 when the Slim Shady LP dropped? nah, i think it's people who grew up thinking of Eminem as the biggest greatest rapper ever.

While most 20YO guys may have stopped buying physical CDs, there may still be some 20YO girls who do.

xp aren't those the same people?

My approximately 55 year old stepdad bought Recovery. I don't know if he listened to it, though.

More U.S. Album Sales
1999 782 million*
1998 711
1997 652*
1996 653*
1995 607*
1994 557*
1993 416*
1992 342*
1991 280*
1990 241*

*1999 and 1990-1997 are extrapolated from a non-verified source. Given the lack of other measurements for comparison, it's hard to be sure of the accuracy of any of the numbers. I'm especially not sure about 1990, as prior to the introduction of Nielsen SoundScan on March 1, 1991, RIAA certification was the only audited and verifiable system for tracking music sales in the U.S. It would be nice if RIAA would produce a database of shipments up until 1991, but they haven't yet. Even better yet, do their best to figure out the number of returns and subtract those to get closer to the actual sales up through today and compare with Soundscan. Through the early to mid-90s, I believe Soundscan did not count all sales outlets.