not only that, but it's also tough to sign guys where their contract ends at a point where they are still "good" but def on the decline -- it really wouldn't even have happened with howard if they hadn't given him the contract two years out
to get big players like this you are almost always going to be overpaying for 3+ years
― J0rdan S., Monday, 23 August 2010 20:41 (thirteen years ago) link
i was expecting him to be another Esteban Loaiza, but he's kept it up pretty well. i guess at 32, if he's going to get himself 100 million, he's going to find a team that thinks he will pitch like this until he's at least 37.
xpost
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:42 (thirteen years ago) link
ya - so i guess it won't be too hard for him to get that contract.
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:43 (thirteen years ago) link
Thermo and I are going to buy the Pirates, restock the team with all our favourite Jays from years past--Moseby in centre, Robbie at second, Cliff Johnson DH'ing--and sign them all to big 10-year contracts. Just because we like them as people.
― clemenza, Monday, 23 August 2010 20:43 (thirteen years ago) link
dude. i hope you're funding this one, i don't even have a job right now!
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:46 (thirteen years ago) link
Key and Henke are key and urgent, btw.
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:47 (thirteen years ago) link
I'll give you $145 in cash and a pickup truck full of watermelons for the stadium concession contract.
xxpost
― My totem animal is a hamburger. (WmC), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:47 (thirteen years ago) link
btw i still think the dumbest contract ever was one that wasn't finished, cf. larry himes deciding that jose guzman, candy maldonado, randy myers, and dan plesac would be better for the cubs than greg maddux, who was 26 at the time.
― ('_') (omar little), Monday, 23 August 2010 20:47 (thirteen years ago) link
like it kinda makes zero sense to pay a-rod 27.5 million per season over the life of a contract that will mostly be his late 30s and early 40s, because you can't reasonably expect him to continue at his '07 levels or maybe even his '08 levels. and soriano's deal was even stupider b/c they were basing his deal on his single epic season with the nationals and not a career of consistency.
― ('_') (omar little), Monday, August 23, 2010 4:19 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark
look, i'm firmly in your camp that he hits 25 hrs for next two seasons then settles into an 18 hr a year semi-DL endgame. still, it makes a lot of sense when the mere promise of a bonds hr record chase is the only thing out there that could goose the YES network's already high tune in numbers. ratings = dollars, it's not always sensibly sabermetrical.
― sanskrit, Monday, 23 August 2010 20:51 (thirteen years ago) link
I was just going to say that as a GM, I'd be very reluctant to hand out big-money, long-term contracts to pitchers, be it Lee or almost anybody. Obviously you have to to stay competitive, but I'd be very nervous. The Braves had arguably the greatest free-agent signing ever with Maddux. How many other long-term contracts ever worked out so well with a starting pitcher?
― clemenza, Monday, 23 August 2010 20:53 (thirteen years ago) link
Considering the contracts after the fact is kind of unfair. The Griffey deal was pretty reasonable when it happened, but he got injured. He was totally worth it, and injuries happen.
On the other hand, Manny's deal was fucking crazy and yet he totally (and somewhat surprisingly) earned every penny of it.
― no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Monday, 23 August 2010 21:26 (thirteen years ago) link
yeah no one should be giving a pitcher more than 4 years unless they are 1) a legit ace and 2) seem to freakishly resist injury
i think CC will work out fine since he was so young, not sure about the inevitable Lee contract which will probably be about the same size
― ciderpress, Monday, 23 August 2010 21:52 (thirteen years ago) link
^ this. no player wants to hear from a team (esp when they've played with their entire career there) when their contract is up that they aren't going to get offered the super mega bucks the used to make because they've been declining and are getting older and the team expects the very normal trend that happens to everyone to continue. 99% of players would say "screw you" and walk.
Is this a partial defense of Wells' contract? Because your post seems to perfectly sum up the mood at the time (he's the face of the franchise, we let Delgado walk so now we have to keep Wells, there are no other decent CF's on the market).
Had Wells continued to hit the way he did in the couple of years before signing the contract, you could argue that the Jays got a reasonable deal. Obv he didn't deserve to get the 7th or whatever largest contract in the history of baseball to that point, but it's also true that nobody could have predicted how bad he'd become.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 23 August 2010 22:20 (thirteen years ago) link
no, i wasn't thinking of Wells at all.
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 23:03 (thirteen years ago) link
if anything i was thinking more about the scenario that leads to someone like Delgado walking.
― oreo speed wiggum (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 23 August 2010 23:05 (thirteen years ago) link
I'm using hindsight and voting for Mike Hampton. Though I guess if we're really playing the long game, the Hampton and Neagle fiascos have made the Rockies FO ignore the possibility of signing hyper-expensive free agents, rather concentrating on the farm and reclamation prospects, which has served us very well the last few years.
― Mark C, Tuesday, 24 August 2010 14:04 (thirteen years ago) link
Denny NAGL
― Andy K, Tuesday, 24 August 2010 14:07 (thirteen years ago) link
howard 0-7 5 ks tonight
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 25 August 2010 06:03 (thirteen years ago) link
And an ejection, don't forget.
― Mark C, Wednesday, 25 August 2010 10:43 (thirteen years ago) link
PLATINUM
― sanskrit, Wednesday, 25 August 2010 14:49 (thirteen years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 23:01 (thirteen years ago) link
126 Million Barry Zito 2007
proof, the Giants are leaving him off the 2010 post season roster.
― Bee OK, Thursday, 7 October 2010 03:50 (thirteen years ago) link
The Giants are leaving not only Zito, but also Renteria and Rowand... their THREE highest salaried players (all healthy mind you) off their playoff roster, proof that the team is run by a Real Housewife of the Berkeley Hills.
― Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 7 October 2010 04:13 (thirteen years ago) link
That most recent A-rod contract is a humdinger innit..
― mayor jingleberries, Thursday, 7 October 2010 16:19 (thirteen years ago) link
Clearly those three Giants contracts were bad moves, but that hasn't stopped Sabean from assembling a very competitive team around them. Isn't the ultimate value of a GM determined by how good the team is, not based on which players make the most money? Since he made the terrible Zito and Rowand moves the Giants have made several good decisions, so it seems kinda weird to keep hammering him for those moves when the team is doing so well, and frankly is in position to dominate the division for the next few years. I don't think there's a team in the division that has recently drafted three better players than Posey, Lincecum, and Bumgarner.
― funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Thursday, 7 October 2010 16:39 (thirteen years ago) link
vernon wells had a good year, certainly good enough that if he were to keep at it for the remainder of the contract it wouldn't be a complete waste. zito was good for one half and now, yeah...it's not his fault he got all that money and he seems like a bro but it's a horrible deal. the more recent a-rod one is pretty ridiculous, too. how much longer on that one?
― ('_') (omar little), Thursday, 7 October 2010 16:42 (thirteen years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Thursday, 7 October 2010 23:01 (thirteen years ago) link
surprised at #s 2 & 4!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 8 October 2010 03:41 (thirteen years ago) link
100 Million Albert Pujols 2004 1
Poly, just given Sabean's track record, I have to assume that the Stopped Clock Principle applies here. However, he and the scouting dept. do deserve credit for the recent drafts (don't forget Sanchez, whom I'd written off as early as this year, and the relievers).
― Daria Law (Leee), Friday, 8 October 2010 04:33 (thirteen years ago) link
/guilty
for the lawlz... :D
― Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Friday, 8 October 2010 04:34 (thirteen years ago) link
You mean you resisted voting for Zito? o_O
― Daria Law (Leee), Friday, 8 October 2010 04:36 (thirteen years ago) link
Anyway, I assume you voted Pooholes because of his advanced age?
i def voted twice, i think santana was the other one but i can't recall for sure. :P
― Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Friday, 8 October 2010 04:37 (thirteen years ago) link
i didnt cheat with multiple accounts but im pretty sure i voted johan a month ago and mauer two days ago. are polls broken?
― sanskrit, Friday, 8 October 2010 13:54 (thirteen years ago) link
When cookies expire you can vote again. Long polls are good for that.
― In "Bob" There Is No East or West (WmC), Friday, 8 October 2010 14:40 (thirteen years ago) link
what a moral swamp
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Friday, 8 October 2010 15:25 (thirteen years ago) link
ha ha!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 8 October 2010 15:59 (thirteen years ago) link
i only voted once and my horse still won!
Jonah Keri ranks the top 15 stinkers currently on the books
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8914127/jonah-keri-worst-contracts-mlb
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 12 February 2013 15:57 (eleven years ago) link
Good job by whoever picked ARod in the original poll, but I think Hampton still "wins" for almost putting up a negative WAR during the length of the contract. Looking back at his numbers now, I can't believe that a guy who was walking 100 batters per year got a $100M contract.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 12 February 2013 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
Some skepticism about Felix's contract:
http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/02/king-felixs-new-clothes/
(The writer is not claiming it as the worst, by any means, but this seemed like an appropriate thread.)
― clemenza, Tuesday, 12 February 2013 16:21 (eleven years ago) link
I agree that its a little bizarre to give a guy a record-setting deal when he's not even a free agent yet, but you do have to consider that A) Seattle may have to overpay to get superstars and B) these contracts aren't ever built to be great in their last year or two. you overpay in the end because a guy who produces 8 WAR is really worth $45m or so and you can't pay that much in one year. that said Felix seems to cap out at 6 WAR. seems like another slight upside/massive downside signing but I guess Seattle feels they'll really be competitive in a few years?
― frogbs, Tuesday, 12 February 2013 17:14 (eleven years ago) link
Vernon Wells would get a lot more votes if we did this poll today.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 12 February 2013 17:26 (eleven years ago) link
Neyer wrote last week about the dodgy future of pitchers w/ Felix's workload, age etc.
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 12 February 2013 17:31 (eleven years ago) link
the Vernon Wells signing was obviously pretty bad but I'm much more baffled by the Angels trading for him after the awfulness of his contract was long since established
― frogbs, Wednesday, 13 February 2013 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
Bonus points go to contracts that were indefensible at the time. Wells' was at least somewhat defensible -- he'd been a 4-5 win player on average up until then, still a good defender, and was entering his age-27 season. The market for outfielders was thin, and he was a popular homegrown player. I don't think the disaster signs were obvious compared to the Zito and Hampton signings (or A-Rod's 2007 re-up).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 13 February 2013 16:03 (eleven years ago) link
Most of the debate was about giving superstar money to a guy who wasn't a true superstar. The Jays had been waiting for Wells to break out for a while and then paid him like the player they expected him to be, not the player he was. There are always guys like that e.g. Jay Bruce where people keep expecting a breakout season but it never comes and eventually you just accept that he is who he is. Even so, the argument was that the Jays were paying 5-6 win money for a 3-4 win player, but even that wouldn't have been so bad.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 13 February 2013 16:09 (eleven years ago) link
i always appreciate being reminded how legendarily awful adam dunn's 2011 season was
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2013 16:09 (eleven years ago) link
Has anyone ever had a worse season? I mean usually the "worst case" scenario for these big guys in their 30's is that they wind up around 0-1 WAR like Wells has but I've never seen a dropoff so steep where it got to the point that the guy was actively way worse than replacement level and was outhit by like half the pitchers in the league. And he was in a situation where the Sox had really no choice but to play him. You might never see another season like that again!
― frogbs, Wednesday, 13 February 2013 17:03 (eleven years ago) link
Not anywhere close to $100 million (relative peanuts, though not for you or me), but who knew that Bobby Bonilla was still getting--and will continue to get--million-dollar cheques for the next two decades?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 July 2013 14:42 (eleven years ago) link
Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst…my money’s on bogaerts.
― omar little, Thursday, December 15, 2022 5:30 PM (forty-five minutes ago)
de grom. bogaerts will at least be on the field
― J0rdan S., Thursday, December 15, 2022 6:16 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink
Oof yeah you’re right forgot about him
― omar little, Thursday, December 15, 2022 6:26 PM (one year ago)
we both might be right
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.)
i think you were righter at the time and might be in the long run, my Bogaerts pick was more a vibes thing, plus my suspicion he was somewhat boosted by Fenway.
― omar little, Friday, 24 May 2024 20:40 (one month ago) link
Stipulating that arguing over something that happened over a decade ago is pointless, my thinking (the same as then, when I said how terrible it was):
You can't really compare that deal then to what pitchers get now. Yes, the 2006 Zito would be a solid investment today: a guy who can give you 180 IP like he gave the Giants those first four seasons is highly coveted, almost regardless of how he pitches. But I assume the Giants were expecting a lot more than what they actually got those first four seasons (4.45 ERA, below league average, 5.5 WAR total), never mind after that.
The two post-season starts were very good, but to my mind, not anything extraordinary (Bumgarner was extraordinary). He pitched 12 innings between the two games, left each one with a comfortable lead. Somebody would have pitched those games--I don’t see that he did anything unique. Even going on to win, that’s just not worth $126M to me. And I do include his first start that postseason, where he pitched poorly in the divisional series in a game that might have eliminated his team.
I think you were right the first time, NoTime (and a lot closer then to the actual event).
Started looking around, and it still seems to be considered a historically poor use of $126 million:
Guy who sort of defends it (“Was it a terribly misguided contract? Yeah, it was. In the wake of two World's Championships, if you're a Giants fan would you like a do-over on that terrible contract? I think maybe you wouldn't.”):
https://www.sbnation.com/2013/9/3/4691644/barry-zito-free-agent-contract-evaluating-san-francisco-giants
Judged terrible before the 2012 World Series:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/698108-mlb-power-rankings-barry-zito-and-the-50-worst-contracts-in-baseball
https://www.complex.com/sports/a/ralph-warner/the-25-worst-contracts-in-sports-history
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-the-answer-to-whether-zitos-is-the-worst-free-agent-contract-ever/
Judged terrible after the 2012 World Series:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/list/worst-mlb-free-agents-signings-josh-hamilton-carl-pavano-jason-bay-carl-crawford-albert-belle/zaaj9h66jdc41an4uaou11u0n
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/427337
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/the_worst_contracts_in_mlb_history/s1__28002203#slide_28
― clemenza, Friday, 24 May 2024 22:40 (one month ago) link
I have some thoughts on this and not trying to argue really (I wasn’t there nor am I inclined to really want to change your very legitimate perspective on this), but I want to make some points. I’ll hang up and listen.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Friday, 24 May 2024 23:07 (one month ago) link
The Aaron Rowand signing was way more annoying than Zito
― brimstead, Friday, 24 May 2024 23:22 (one month ago) link
We're definitely at an impasse. I think it mostly comes down to those two postseason starts (he left the other one up 3-2 after 2.2 innings). In general, you see postseason success as much more determinative than I do. His game scores were 72 and 55--timely, well pitched games, nothing more or less. Marco Estrada gave the Jays some terrific postseason starts in 2015 and 2016. I'm glad he came a lot cheaper than $126 million.
Would be interested in hearing from others who posted in this thread at the time and thought it was a terrible signing.
― clemenza, Saturday, 25 May 2024 00:22 (one month ago) link
Actually, no--let's do a poll of the worst contracts of the past decade, then we can argue about stuff we actually remember (I evidently had all these strong feelings about the Zito contract in 2010 that I have zero recollection of today).
― clemenza, Saturday, 25 May 2024 01:35 (one month ago) link
the zito contract was . . . not good. he was coming off a really good run but even then his K and BB numbers and velocity weren't great
but also the giants won two titles during that deal (and another a year later) so you can't really say that his contract hampered the team at all
which may not officially count in a 'worst contract' thread? but it certainly colo(u)rs my thinking about its disaster level. if the giants *hadn't* signed him, would they have won more than those two championships? i'm skeptical
― mookieproof, Saturday, 25 May 2024 02:50 (one month ago) link
Which I somehow didn't mention, the reason I initially thought it was so bad: his three mediocre seasons (and large number of innings he'd already pitched in his career) leading up to the signing.
I think "you can't really say that his contract hampered the team at all" is about the best compromise I'm going to get here, so let's go with that (and move on!).
― clemenza, Saturday, 25 May 2024 03:03 (one month ago) link
I think zito's contract was some other, secret third thing
― H.P, Saturday, 25 May 2024 04:17 (one month ago) link
'supporting country music'
― mookieproof, Saturday, 25 May 2024 04:26 (one month ago) link
The proper response was: ‘no secrets’
― H.P, Saturday, 25 May 2024 04:30 (one month ago) link