hall of fame, next vote...

1) All players who played before 1950 (even one game before 1950), and

2) Players who have played since 2011 (2011, 2012 or 2013), since those player may not yet have complete careers.

3) All players who played less than 800 games in their careers.

This third elimination creates a major selection bias in the data, which makes these players who are studied here quite different from all rookies, and limits our ability to generalize what we learn from doing this. (On the other hand, not restricting the study group would cause other problems which, in my judgment, would be much worse, so...six of one, half-dozen of the other. Doing the study this way, you learn quite a bit but you can’t generalize it reliably because of the selection bias. Doing the study the other way you wouldn’t learn anything to begin with.)

I'm too tired to try to make sense of that.

I assume the three criteria are the exclusions, right? So everyone else (played post-1950, career started pre-2011 and played more than 800 games) is the sample?

That'd be it, yeah--all I had to do was glance at some of the names included (e.g., Mantle) to figure that out. The study had to do with a reader question about the predictive value of rookie seasons--the HOF stuff came out of that. I'd link to the whole thing, but it's behind the paywall.

is that for players who played a full rookie season, i'm guessing?

I think so, but I scanned the piece and couldn't clarify that. I think I remember a line about "true rookie season."

Jay Jaffe's HOF favourites, by position, among active players:

http://mlb.si.com/2013/07/26/who-is-cooperstown-bound-a-look-at-active-players-with-strong-hall-of-fame-cases/

I don't know if Cooperstown will ever get over its third-base blind spot, but if you throw in Wright and Longoria, I'd say there are four pretty strong candidates right now.

Voters gonna have to get real sabermetric for Utley unless he lasts til 40.

I wonder what the TV ratings will be like to hear the great-grandchildren of Hank O’Day, Jacob Ruppert and Deacon White.

Tom Cheek got his posthumous Frick Award today, so that's getting coverage here. But that's not induction--all you get is your name on a plaque that's kept in the supply cupboard.

next to the McGwire/Sosa memorabilia

Revived for general purposes. Very quick list from the active WAR leaders--add/delete/adjust as needed. (Trying to guess actual voting; omitting anyone with a PED problem.)

Safe: Pujols, Jeter, Ichiro, Rivera
Probably safe too, but a half-notch lower on the rung: Cabrera, Halladay
Close to safe: Beltre, Mauer, Cano, Verlander
Very good bet: Felix
Getting stronger: Votto, Wright, Longoria
Maybe: Beltran, Helton, Pedroia
Early jump: Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Strasburg, McCutcheon

That's only 21 names--historically, there are about 30 HOF-bound players active in a given year. As there would be this year without PEDs.

Missed Sabathia--add him to "maybe."

Add Posey to "early jump." That's 23.

Feel like Yadier Molina has an outside chance

not sure of serious....

I think outside-shot's accurate. An MVP this year would have really helped. The list of MVP catchers is almost exclusively made up of guys who are either in the HOF or probably headed there:

http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/mvp.htm

From the official list, only Howard, Munson, I-Rod, Mauer, and Posey are not in, and the last two or three look good.

If Utley plays decently the remainder of his new contract, I like his chances either w/ new-era writers 10-15 years from now or a Vets Committee (assuming they ever fix that).

not sure of serious....

I'm kind of serious. He is regarded by many as the best defensive catcher of this era, and is a stabilizing force for a pitching staff that always is good despite lots of turnover .. AND he's a pretty good hitter.

Utley is currently 13th by JAWS among 2b, a hair ahead of Biggio. (Of course, they are both behind Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker...)

Yadier 24th among catchers. Not sure if they will put a catcher in mostly for defense if Ted Simmons (and Piazza!?) have trouble as heavy hitters.

Wait, I had a spasm of dyslexia -- Molina is 42nd among catchers. The only catching HOFer he's already passed is Rick Ferrell, who is considered one of the least deserving inductees.

Morbius on the Cabrera thread: "Andruw Jones and Beltran should both be HOFers..."

Honestly don't get the Andruw Jones argument. He was a fantastic defensive player through his 20s, and a pretty good offensive player helped by his era. (Highest OPS+, 136.) He suffered sharp decline at 30, and when he hit 31 he was finished. Jones wasn't Pujols in his 20s, not even close--i.e., Pujols goes in even if he's Andruw Jones for the next five years--and he wasn't Sandy Koufax, forced into retirement at a moment when he was probably the most dominant player in the game. He was simply a very good player through his 20s who then, literally, fell off a cliff.

Lance Berkman?

By the way, Trout's so next-level that "early jump" doesn't do him justice. He needs a separate "just needs to stay clear of Lindsay Lohan" category.

I tend to group Berkman with Matt Holiday in my mind--big hitters who I think will ultimately be lost in a sea of big hitters. I thought he had a chance after 2011, but he's fading fast.

The Andruw Jones argument is a 'peak' argument (and thru his 20s is pretty long peak, as he came up at 19).

Part A:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml

Part B:

WAR, Position Players

1998 NL 7.4 (5th)
1999 NL 7.0 (2nd)
2000 NL 8.1 (2nd)
2002 NL 6.6 (6th)
2005 NL 6.7 (4th)
2006 NL 5.6 (10th)

Career 62.7 (103rd)

I tend to group Berkman with Matt Holiday in my mind--big hitters who I think will ultimately be lost in a sea of big hitters.

Yeah, that's probably true. You could throw Paul Konerko in that group, too.

That's the thing, though--I don't see those peak WAR numbers as being good enough to get in without building on them in your 30s. I'd just as soon put in Garciaparra: 7.4., 7.1, 6.8., 6.6, 6.1.

What about the Big Hitters who are being dismissed on no evidence or hearsay, eg Bagwell, Piazza? xxp

I'm assuming ppl who dismiss Andruw & Beltran wd have to be convinced on Kenny Lofton too.

Even tho Jones' OBP is higher than Dawson (the worst recent mistake of the BBWAA), Andruw will get more skepticism for "hitting" .254.

Andruw was better for longer than Nomar. (Again, w/ peak value -- Koufax didn't build on anything in his 30s.)

rating Verlander and Felix as approaching safe is a little premature; they are down in the 160s in JAWS, where the only modern HOFer keeping them company is Catfish Hunter. (JV at least has some postseason heroism to boost his standing.)

not sure what's hard to get abt jones -- if his UZR is any indication, he's one of the greatest defensive players of all time and he also happens to have 434 HR. it's not like this was a tiny peak, 10 yrs isn't abnormal.

10 years is basically sandberg/puckett. nomar is more like mattingly.

he doesn't seem to be active anymore, but scott rolen is one i wonder about. he probably won't get much of a look (in that berkman/beltran/bagwell mold) but he's got 70+ fWAR.

Rolen is 10th on the 3b JAWS list, everybody ahead of him is in except Chipper and Beltre

Out for a while...I just can't cross that bridge of electing a guy who contributes zilch once he hits his 30s (with the unique exception of Koufax). I'll concede, as I have before, that I'm much more comfortable discussing offense than defense. We'll see what happens--my guess is that Jones does not last more than two or three years on the ballot.

i'm always wary of throwing my support behind a guy whose statistical case hinges largely on defense, since we seem to know less about that, but the thing about andruw is that, subjectively, we all knew we were watching one of the greatest defensive outfielders ever, and probably the best of his generation bar maybe griffey

and i'm all for keeping the hall relatively exclusive, but at least according to JAWS, andruw fits in right with the best (the average JAWS for a center fielder is a bit skewed toward the high side, since willie mays and ty cobb were really good)

lofton is a guy who i never thought of as a HOF candidate but who WAR seems to love, mostly due to his baserunning, defense, and the generous positional adjustment that comes with playing CF for 17 years

Although I find it bothersome that Lofton only played 150 games twice in his career--or three times, if you want to give him credit for '94 (played in every game but one)--I'd be much more comfortable putting him in than Jones. Lofton's offensive-to-defensive ratio for WAR is about 4-1; four parts what metrics analyze really well, one part what is still a work in progress. Jones' ratio is about 5:3--so much of his case rests on the more contentious part. I didn't see Jones play enough to even have a subjective opinion; my subjective opinion on Roberto Alomar is apparently wrong.

The other thing I like about Lofton is that wherever and whenever he played, he was productive--right until the end. At age 38 in Philadelphia, he was getting on base and scoring runs. At age 40, his final year, his line is .296/.367/.414, and he scores 86 runs in fewer than 500 AB. He always contributed; he always made money for his partners. (I will say that Jones' last four seasons look better if you were to group them into two seasons.)

And for that, Lofton got all of 3% his first and last time on the ballot. I don't see Jones doing a whole lot better, unless he catches a break and debuts against a weaker field.

http://www.bravesjournal.us/?p=8729

keltner list on lofton

Good piece. I like the Keltner Test. I once tried to run a variation on it to see who was more famous, Suicide or the Shoes.

well, it's too late to keep the Hall relatively exclusive, unless you mean that almost no hitters from 1985-2005 are making it soon.

revamping the Frick Award

http://www.baseballnation.com/hot-corner/2013/9/4/4694728/baseball-hall-fame-ford-frick-award-broadcasters-new-system

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40383/helton-falls-just-under-hall-of-famer-bar

shoenfield on helton's chances. have to agree, though it wouldn't be the end of the world if he got in

vlad will make for some interesting debate in a few years

BP podcast did Vlad & Helton today. Helton was crazy productive on the road at his peak.

Couple of opposing Helton pieces in the last couple of days:

James -- Yes (it was a "Hey Bill" answer, behind the paywall now)
Schoenfield -- No (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40383/helton-falls-just-under-hall-of-famer-bar)

the BP 'cast briefly summarizes the James case

Sorry, didn't realize Kevin had posted the Schoenfield link.

Jay Jaffe on Vlad: http://mlb.si.com/2013/09/16/vladimir-guerrero-retires-hall-of-fame-chances/?sct=mlb_wr_a2

I would vote Guerrero in myself. I know his career WAR is right on the bubble, but his career now ends at 36 while he was still somewhat productive, and I don't doubt he could have gotten enough AB over the next three or four seasons to make a solid counting-stat argument (500/3,000, probably, which I don't discount) to go along with his impressive peak. Didn't realize till reading the Jaffe article that he was .358/.364/.679 in the minors the year Toronto wouldn't bring him up...which looks like one walk in 55 PA, but the rest suggests he still had something left.

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=20190423

yessss, i was looking for this one. from the freaking corner!

the statistical case for vlad is pretty mixed tbh -- great peak, right at the average HOF (an average which is skewed high thanks to the likes of babe ruth and hank aaron), but probably didn't play long enough to accumulate enough WAR or pass some of the traditional counting milestones. he also played in massive hitters' parks (his career AIR is 109) during a historic offensive time period. his WAR numbers are hurt by his defensive metrics (-10 dWAR over his career, even though he was a fine fielder -- 7 runs above average according to DRS, +10 by UZR -- the positional adjustment is what does him in), but his raw numbers are great -- career OPS+ of 140, two more walks than strikeouts in his career (something pretty rare for a slugger like vlad in this era)

ultimately though you look at his 7 year peak of 41.2 WAR, about 3 MVP shares, and the fact that he played the game like no one else, i would vote for him. sue me

i will not sue u

also he gets a bonus for no batting gloves