Although I find it bothersome that Lofton only played 150 games twice in his career--or three times, if you want to give him credit for '94 (played in every game but one)--I'd be much more comfortable putting him in than Jones. Lofton's offensive-to-defensive ratio for WAR is about 4-1; four parts what metrics analyze really well, one part what is still a work in progress. Jones' ratio is about 5:3--so much of his case rests on the more contentious part. I didn't see Jones play enough to even have a subjective opinion; my subjective opinion on Roberto Alomar is apparently wrong.
The other thing I like about Lofton is that wherever and whenever he played, he was productive--right until the end. At age 38 in Philadelphia, he was getting on base and scoring runs. At age 40, his final year, his line is .296/.367/.414, and he scores 86 runs in fewer than 500 AB. He always contributed; he always made money for his partners. (I will say that Jones' last four seasons look better if you were to group them into two seasons.)
And for that, Lofton got all of 3% his first and last time on the ballot. I don't see Jones doing a whole lot better, unless he catches a break and debuts against a weaker field.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 August 2013 03:54 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.bravesjournal.us/?p=8729
keltner list on lofton
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 August 2013 04:15 (eleven years ago) link
Good piece. I like the Keltner Test. I once tried to run a variation on it to see who was more famous, Suicide or the Shoes.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 August 2013 04:21 (eleven years ago) link
well, it's too late to keep the Hall relatively exclusive, unless you mean that almost no hitters from 1985-2005 are making it soon.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 20 August 2013 05:39 (eleven years ago) link
revamping the Frick Award
http://www.baseballnation.com/hot-corner/2013/9/4/4694728/baseball-hall-fame-ford-frick-award-broadcasters-new-system
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 5 September 2013 18:16 (eleven years ago) link
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40383/helton-falls-just-under-hall-of-famer-bar
shoenfield on helton's chances. have to agree, though it wouldn't be the end of the world if he got in
vlad will make for some interesting debate in a few years
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Monday, 16 September 2013 16:27 (eleven years ago) link
BP podcast did Vlad & Helton today. Helton was crazy productive on the road at his peak.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Monday, 16 September 2013 16:28 (eleven years ago) link
Couple of opposing Helton pieces in the last couple of days:
James -- Yes (it was a "Hey Bill" answer, behind the paywall now)Schoenfield -- No (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40383/helton-falls-just-under-hall-of-famer-bar)
― clemenza, Monday, 16 September 2013 17:54 (eleven years ago) link
the BP 'cast briefly summarizes the James case
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Monday, 16 September 2013 17:57 (eleven years ago) link
Sorry, didn't realize Kevin had posted the Schoenfield link.
Jay Jaffe on Vlad: http://mlb.si.com/2013/09/16/vladimir-guerrero-retires-hall-of-fame-chances/?sct=mlb_wr_a2
I would vote Guerrero in myself. I know his career WAR is right on the bubble, but his career now ends at 36 while he was still somewhat productive, and I don't doubt he could have gotten enough AB over the next three or four seasons to make a solid counting-stat argument (500/3,000, probably, which I don't discount) to go along with his impressive peak. Didn't realize till reading the Jaffe article that he was .358/.364/.679 in the minors the year Toronto wouldn't bring him up...which looks like one walk in 55 PA, but the rest suggests he still had something left.
― clemenza, Monday, 16 September 2013 21:48 (eleven years ago) link
http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=20190423
yessss, i was looking for this one. from the freaking corner!
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:14 (eleven years ago) link
the statistical case for vlad is pretty mixed tbh -- great peak, right at the average HOF (an average which is skewed high thanks to the likes of babe ruth and hank aaron), but probably didn't play long enough to accumulate enough WAR or pass some of the traditional counting milestones. he also played in massive hitters' parks (his career AIR is 109) during a historic offensive time period. his WAR numbers are hurt by his defensive metrics (-10 dWAR over his career, even though he was a fine fielder -- 7 runs above average according to DRS, +10 by UZR -- the positional adjustment is what does him in), but his raw numbers are great -- career OPS+ of 140, two more walks than strikeouts in his career (something pretty rare for a slugger like vlad in this era)
ultimately though you look at his 7 year peak of 41.2 WAR, about 3 MVP shares, and the fact that he played the game like no one else, i would vote for him. sue me
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:32 (eleven years ago) link
i will not sue u
also he gets a bonus for no batting gloves
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:38 (eleven years ago) link
i mean, todd helton was a great player. i watched a lot of baseball during todd helton's prime, and i feel fairly confident that i am not going to remember him as anything other than the dude from the rockies who could mash. vlad was an artist
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:39 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/29590/vlad-guerrero-a-legend-in-winter
this is great
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:43 (eleven years ago) link
ppl remember vlad as the dude who would swing at anything but his k numbers are miniscule by current standards and he hit .318 all-time. should have run less; that's about it
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:45 (eleven years ago) link
he walked more than he struck out!
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:47 (eleven years ago) link
no he didn't
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:50 (eleven years ago) link
if you include IBBs
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 00:58 (eleven years ago) link
As a practical matter, Guerrero will, I imagine, have some good-guy sentiment on his side when he goes on the ballot--popular, exciting player, no PED association, didn't overstay his welcome (or at least didn't get the chance to). Sort of like Kirby, pre-scandal. That may matter at some point.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:00 (eleven years ago) link
?
737 bb, 985 k
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:05 (eleven years ago) link
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Monday, September 16, 2013 8:58 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:09 (eleven years ago) link
pretty sure ibbs are counted as real-life bbs
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:16 (eleven years ago) link
i mean, it's cool that he was ibb'd 250 times, but that's part of his 737
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:20 (eleven years ago) link
hm, maybe you're right. but i'm not sure
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 02:41 (eleven years ago) link
IBB are a subset of BB. Either that, or Barry Bonds walked 352 times in 2004.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 02:45 (eleven years ago) link
ok yeah that was what i'd always thought, but recently after reading about how wOBA and wRC+ are calculated, i learned that they don't count IBBs so i thought maybe they had always been separated
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 02:53 (eleven years ago) link
kinda surprised how low his career war is... was his defense seriously that bad?can someone tell me why he didn't play in 2012 and no one gave him a chance this year?
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 04:31 (eleven years ago) link
OK, arguing about who gets in a Bondsless HOF during a playoff race is just ridiculous.
To quote the Thomas Jefferson Slave Apartments, blow it up.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 06:51 (eleven years ago) link
Guerrero could still hit but he'd become a liability in the field and on the bases. In the days before every team carried 47 relief pitchers he'd have latched on as a PH/occasional starter who'd appear in 70-80 games a year for sure and could have extended his career another two or three years. Thome managed to hang on in that kind of role (as is Giambi now), but he was power hitters up until the end, so teams found a way to justify the roster spot.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 07:21 (eleven years ago) link
he was *a* power hitter, rather
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 07:22 (eleven years ago) link
vlad had a tryout with the jays in the spring of 2012 iirc, but was cut
even back with the angels his knees were too shot to really play the field
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 16:08 (eleven years ago) link
ahhh right. the knees.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 17:43 (eleven years ago) link
Helton was pretty tremendous but I also feel confident that no Rockies hitter will get in before possibly tulo. I might vote for Helton, idk. I definitely would vote for walker.
― christmas candy bar (al leong), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
I would take Walker over Helton too. Helton's home/road splits were better than i expected, but still favoured home to a noticeable degree. and you could see his numbers take a dip post-humidor, but nothing epic. he went from being Albert Pujuols to Carlos Delgado. and then a few years later he morphed into John Olerud (sorry my go-to references are mostly Blue Jays/Mets).
he's close - but i just can't consider Helton a hall of fameor.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 21:26 (eleven years ago) link
Thinking about Vlad when I was thinking about him as a player, I'd figure he was pretty similar to Andre Dawson as they both had bad knees, total cannons in the outfield and both started with the Expos. Looking it up, man Vlad's career batting average is .318, which is pretty impressive.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 21:38 (eleven years ago) link
OBP is a little less impressive, however. but ya - def see the Dawson parallel.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 21:41 (eleven years ago) link
Posnanski on Guerrero:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.ca/2013/09/vlad-impaler.html
Lots of that good-guy sentiment throughout. He also points out some uncanny similarities to Helton, pointing out that the two couldn't have been more different in how they got there:
"Helton hit .317. Guerrero hit .318. Helton had 2,505 hits. Guerrero had 2,590. Helton had 2,791 runs-plus-RBIs. Guerrero had 2,824. Helton had 61.2 WAR. Guerrero had 59.1 WAR. You could make a strong Hall of Fame case for both."
― clemenza, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 22:32 (eleven years ago) link
From 2007 to 2011, by the Fangraphs numbers, Vlad Guerrero swung at more than FORTY-FIVE PERCENT of the pitches out of the strike zone.
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 22:36 (eleven years ago) link
and connected with ALL OF THEM.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 18 September 2013 15:59 (eleven years ago) link
had vlad been more selective, he'd have been better. but i might have enjoyed him less
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 18 September 2013 16:01 (eleven years ago) link
Vlad Guerrero was nasty on way low pitching. He just hit some of that stuff like a golfer and clobber home runs on stuff like a foot low or more. His arm in the outfield was amazing when Vlad was in Montreal. I can't remember who it was but I remember him just nailing someone from the Cubs at third on an absolute strike from deep in the right field warning track at Wrigley. It was a crazy great throw not unlike the one Dave Parker did in the allstar game.
The talk of Vlad and Walker gets me to thinking how many good outfielders the Expos turned out in that period of time. They were able to bring up also Marquis Grissom who was a player you could also file into the hall of very good, as he was quite a solid player of the same period. The Expos also stole Moises Alou from the Pirates on waivers (dumb move Pittsburgh) and he was playing around these guys too. Alou also had a very good career and was just a very tough right handed hitter with combination of good line drive power and really hard to strike out. (That said, Alou didn't draw a ton of walks.) He could still hit late into his career, but he was often injured.
― earlnash, Thursday, 19 September 2013 00:20 (eleven years ago) link
moises was a solid player; it is perhaps sad (or awesome?) that i will mainly remember him for pissing on his hands to toughen them up
― mookieproof, Thursday, 19 September 2013 00:52 (eleven years ago) link
I still can't decide which one is more weird that practice by Alou or Clemens use of icy hot on his groin on days he pitched.
― earlnash, Thursday, 19 September 2013 02:11 (eleven years ago) link
wasn't there someone else who would eat something like 6 hotdogs before every start?
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 19 September 2013 02:16 (eleven years ago) link
surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet, but:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/writers-view-the-best-players-not-in-the-hall-of-fame/
I recently posed a question to 22 baseball writers from across the country. It was a question that doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.“Who are the three best eligible players — not including Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — not in the Hall of Fame?”...Point Totals:Raines = 38Piazza = 36Bagwell = 31Biggio = 22Schilling = 18Trammell = 11Kaat = 8Whitaker = 7Hodges = 5Palmeiro = 5Allen = 4Martinez = 4Gooden = 3Minoso = 3Adams = 1Garvey = 1Morris = 1Murphy = 1Tiant = 1Walker = 1
“Who are the three best eligible players — not including Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — not in the Hall of Fame?”...
Point Totals:
Raines = 38Piazza = 36Bagwell = 31Biggio = 22Schilling = 18Trammell = 11Kaat = 8Whitaker = 7Hodges = 5Palmeiro = 5Allen = 4Martinez = 4Gooden = 3Minoso = 3Adams = 1Garvey = 1Morris = 1Murphy = 1Tiant = 1Walker = 1
lots of interesting stuff here, although the names are mostly predictable (piazza, bagwell, biggio, raines, schilling are all mentioned frequently). but the minoso mention surprised me - i didn't realize how good he was! an obp machine. and i definitely didn't realize he made a comeback with the sox at age 50 AND 54. pretty amazing.
― Z S, Saturday, 21 September 2013 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
well those comebacks were mainly for box office.
I just know Jon Heyman musta said Garvey.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 21 September 2013 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
only one for Walker?!
i was wondering - if you just removed Ricky Henderson from history, like he never existed - would Raines be in the hall already? he was such an amazing base runner, that only someone like Henderson could have overshadowed him (and i realize Raines was good at a great deal more than just base running).
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 21 September 2013 22:24 (eleven years ago) link
I think playing in MTL hurts him more than being in Rickey's shadow, but OTOH, Gary Carter and Andre Dawson had their best years in MTL too and they were elected. But both of them had very high profile seasons for bigger clubs after leaving MTL too.
Raines got enough attention via All Star and MVP votes in his prime to make me think he was appreciated when he played (which also agrees with my very fuzzy memories of his 80's prime) but that's the problem sometimes with having a very long career -- twenty years passed between his best years and the year he finally become eligible for the HOF, and people forgot how great he was.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 21 September 2013 22:47 (eleven years ago) link
I wonder if mythic "coke vial in the uniform pocket" plays a role.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 21 September 2013 23:24 (eleven years ago) link