2013 NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

rosterz -- no Craig, LA makes two puzzling pitcher swaps:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/10/11/4827986/dodgers-cardinals-nlcs-rosters-mlb-playoffs

can't believe joe fucking kelly is starting this game for the cards.

would you prefer lance fucking lynn

no! i would prefer shelby fucking miller with a short leash.

i don't know, even that sounds wrong. i miss jaime garcia. and RIP chris carpenter.

;_;

I didn't realize the Cards' .330 BA w/ RISP is the all-time record, by .018...

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/10/11/4826740/cardinals-dodgers-2013-nlcs-preview

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

got my 6 pack and miley cyrus mp3s, let's watch some baseball

Ethier!

Fuck, I'm marooned out at a restaurant, won't get back until halfway through. Morbs' post makes me sad, though. Joe fucking Kelly.

Oh, still no score!

wow, kelly looks awful

Yep

But he has a lot of wins so he is good.

- mike matheny

sorry man, shoulda gone w/ "he's in the lineup!"

Can I killfile the fucking "all-time postseason" idiot graphics plz?

Kelly needed that 1-2-3 DP

yes, how was that not out

beltran beltranning

Scully thinks nonrusty Ethier catches it

i thought it was going to be a home run. i turned on the TV and the ball was in the air.

synchronized bullpen stretching routines

it's the cardinal way

whoever invented post season cap patches shd be executed, and they shd keep executing people until there are no more patches

lol

well you have a guy on third and leave your pitcher in? not sure if i like it.

third second

i thought he was through six but he was only through five. so yes keep the pitcher in.

grnki is a good hitter too

are we sure that isnt LaRussa in a Matheny mask?

fuck

puiiiig

when's he gonna cost them a game with his reckless style?

some ballsy fielding that inning

good thing donnie pinch ran for gonzalez!

going to the ninth

99 MPH

18 runs in his last 14 starts

Samsung using LCD Soundsystem

wow @ that beard. wow.

Button yr damn shirt

i was about to say Wilson usually walks a whole lot of people, what happened to that

not quite

YEAH

wowwwwwwwwww

not quite

that was not smart

lordamighty

jerry meals thinks he was safe

you have to call him out there

tag shmag, he was obv out

woo our bench suuuucks

Want to research post-season meltdowns by great starting pitchers

if we're using this callow level of "great," Andujar in '85 obv (man that was sweet).

I did think of Andujar, who was pretty good for a few years, but I meant HOF territory (realize it's still early for Kershaw). Someone mentioned Koufax's 6-0 loss in Game 2 of the '66 Series, but it's not even close: 6 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs, only one of them earned. (Willie Davis's three-error game.)

Schoenfield has an interesting thought up today--not saying it's true, but it caught my attention.

In this day when hitters swing from their heels no matter the count or situation, willing to trade strikeouts -- lots of strikeouts -- for home runs, the Cardinals excel at that old-school stat that everyone loves to denigrate: batting average.

They put the ball in play and that leads to more hits. They had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this season -- as they also did in 2011, when they won the World Series -- and if there’s a trend to watch in the playoffs these days, it’s that: not striking out. Since 2009, teams that had the lower strikeout rate in the regular season have won 23 of 29 postseason series. The statisticians may argue that the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions; maybe they’re right. But tell that to the Cardinals.

(The reason I'm skeptical is that the odds of putting together a long string of hits seem especially long against a great pitcher like Kershaw.)

yes, IT'S STILL EARLY for Kershaw, and then you went on to ignore that

I mean, obviously it did happen last night, but as a deliberate, conscious approach against the Kershaws and Verlanders and, um, Wachas, I'm skeptical.

Well...Kershaw's got at least as much of a head start on the HOF as Trout, no? He'll have two Cys and a second-place at the end of this year, to go along with a 2.60 career ERA and lots else. He could be Dwight Gooden or Tim Lincecum, sure. I'd bet he ends up in the HOF. (Which is kind of irrelevant in terms of the Andujar comparison anyway--he's great right now in a way that Andujar never was.)

Or let me put it this way: if you extend the meaning of great to Andujar, I wouldn't have bothered asking the question. I'm sure that list would be really long.

I presumed you really meant "aces"

Okay, that's fair. Tudor and Cox were better that year--Tudor was a lot better--but Andujar was probably perceived as the staff ace that year.

Kershaw's got at least as much of a head start on the HOF as Trout, no?

by JAWS, Kershaw is 211th among starting pitchers, after 6 seasons.

Trout is 117th among CFs, after 2+.

I remember Andujar's meltdown fairly well. Even uglier than last night, set up by Denkinger's missed call the night before. Andujar looked like he was ready to murder someone when he was ejected.

However, after Horton gave up a single to Brett, Herzog immediately replaced him with the volatile Joaquín Andújar, normally a starter but pressed into relief. Andújar allowed an RBI single to Frank White to increase the Royals lead to 10–0 before the Cardinals came completely unglued. With Sundberg at the plate, Andújar twice charged home plate umpire Denkinger to disagree with his strike zone. First, Denkinger called an Andújar pitch a ball. Herzog, who had been berating Denkinger for most of the game, rushed from the dugout to defend Andújar, and was ejected—reportedly after saying to Denkinger, "We wouldn't even be here if you hadn't missed the fucking call last night!" According to Denkinger, he replied "Well if you guys weren't hitting .120 in this World Series, we wouldn't be here." The next pitch was also called a ball, and Denkinger ejected Andújar, who again lost his cool and charged at Denkinger. It took three teammates to restrain him and get him off the field.

And if the great majority of voters were guided by JAWS, that'd be compelling evidence that Trout's far ahead. But they're not (not yet, anyway--20 years from now, who knows?)--Kershaw's hardware will figure in prominently. You're arguing "should"; I'm talking about "is."

But I also realize pitchers are a much bigger roll of the dice. Trout's similarity comps include seven HOF'ers, one player who will go in, Vada Pinson, and Tony Conigliaro. Kerhaws's include Seaver, Clemens, Palmer, and Pedro--great start--but also Gary Nolan, Vida Blue, and Lefty Liefeld (?).

Zone was a mess all series but I think the better team won. Cards beat Kershaw twice and Greinke once. Dodgers also had Hanley and Ethier in the lineup but they were hardly a presence. We'll get em next year.

All SP's vs CF's (not all OF's or all position players) isn't a fair comparison (different sample sizes). But Kershaw is clearly the best pitcher in baseball based on a body of work stretching over a few years, so it would be like Johan Santana getting knocked around in '06-'07. Whether they continue(d) on a HOF path isn't really the point.

He was never the best in baseball, but Andy Pettitte had a lot of meltdown starts in the playoffs considering his reputation as a big time pitcher (and possible HOFer). I count at least six (although none since 2001).

But Kershaw is clearly the best pitcher in baseball

hmmmmm

kershaw is obviously the best pitcher in baseball, yes

same thing i mentioned with the trout vs cabrera thing -- unless we're talking hitters in coors, everyone is apparently perfectly happy to acknowledge park factors, but no one actually cares to include them in their evaluation of players

i think kershaw is probably in the top 2, maybe still the best even in LA, but i'd put verlander right up there even with this last year under his belt

well yeah i mean you almost have to weigh more recent seasons more heavily when you're talking about who the best pitcher/player is RIGHT NOW. if we weigh each season equally then over the last 3 years verlander is right there with him, maybe even better

Whether he's #1 or #1A doesn't really change the argument.

Dodger Stadium has averaged about a 96 PF during Kershaw's career, the last few years Coors is around 115-120, down from it's high 120's heyday in the 90's. So basically there's a good reason why Coors was and remains a special case.

ok -- coors being super special doesn't make other park differences smaller or something, kershaw would still look like a different pitcher in most other parks

That's what I was thinking of (xpost). At any given time there are, what, maybe five to ten starting pitchers who are more or less in their prime and on a HOF track? Today's list starts with Verlander, Kershaw, and Felix, and you can fill in the rest different ways. I don't think Andujar was one of those pitchers in 1985, but I'd have to go back and check.

wasn't alive at the time, but andujar had a career losing record coming into 1985, so i doubt it

i was wondering, in WAR, who is best starting pitcher of the past 5 years?

Verlander -- Lee -- Felix -- Kershaw -- Greinke (in fWAR)

no idea how to find that in bb-ref but kershaw has a 0.1 lead on verlander there

kershaw would still look like a different pitcher in most other parks

Not so different -- his home/road splits this year were almost identical, his ERA was half a run higher on the road but the difference is probably due to luck, because his peripherals are virtually the same.

Dodger stadium is interesting for park factors... the symmetric outfield suppresses doubles and triples, night games you dont see many home runs, but when its warm you get an uptick. Whats the stat equivalent for that? hehe

xp h/r splits are never a reliable way of determining that, especially in a 1-season sample size (for his career his road ERA is 0.86 higher)

during andujar's time i remember that the dominant pitchers everyone seemed to fear were guys like the usual HOF suspects + candelaria, mario soto, steve rogers, dave stieb, frank viola, and yeah andujar for several years. but he was only "great" for 3 seasons iirc.

some of those guys were incredibly good too. perennial all-stars, guys who started the all-star game, deservedly feared.