Mike Trout needs his own thread

pretty much

yeah that's kind of silly

I've been assuming the past month or so that Trout would again finish second for MVP behind Betts. But it's starting to look like Martinez, even as a DH, will take enough votes from Betts (Ramirez, too) that Trout will win. Usual disclaimer: just handicapping here, not advocating/opining.

It’s gonna be an interesting decision, for sure.

hoping there are enough "best player, period" voters and the fact that Boston may win the East by more than the WAR of any of their players

Jose Ramirez, too

I don’t think the best player should necessarily win the MVP. trout, betts, and ramirez are all equally deserving this year imo

it's an individual award. it should go to the best individual.

no it goes to the player who had the best season

assuming these numbers hold I'd be surprised if Trout got it. his team is almost certainly going to miss the playoffs, while the other two practically have it clinched, with Betts being a part of what may be the greatest Boston Red Sox team ever. plus Trout is always in the conversation (plus he's won it twice), and they generally like to get fresh faces in there (remember the "he'll have plenty of chances to win one in the future" argument used to justify giving it to Miggy?). I know voters like to say this stuff doesn't affect their choice but I'm sure it does, for some of them at least. Enough to tilt it away from him.

If Martinez wins a Triple Crown--and he's pretty damn close right now--that would really scramble things up. I don't think Martinez would win--DH is a huge mountain to climb right now, more even than 10 years ago, when Ortiz had a 4th/2nd/3rd/4th run--but that would have a big effect on the results. And again, I think he'd take votes away from Betts, opening up room for Trout or Ramirez.

Playing the hits: There are now only eight position players in MLB history with at least three seasons of 10+ WAR. They are: Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, and Mike Trout. Mike Trout remains 27 years old.

— Ted Berg (@OGTedBerg) September 27, 2018

Mike Trout remains 27 years old.

jesus christ

did you mean to post that on the politics thred tracer

i was thinking "hey maybe there's a chance Trout will wind up with the most 10-plus WAR seasons..." then saw Hornsby and Mays had 6 apiece, and Ruth had 9. So probably not.

He'll probably tie Mays for the most 10+ seasons that don't win him an MVP.

(Can't realistically compare MVP-related things to anyone from the '30s or before--different system.)

James has this new thing on his site called "HOF Value Standard" (he held a contest for the most awkward name possible and that won), which combines Win Shares and WAR. The "bar for Hall of Fame worthiness" is 500; Trout is at 523.2.

He's really clinging to Win Shares, isn't he?

I know, it's kind of bizarre.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26026415/angels-owner-arte-moreno-says-new-mike-trout-deal-subject-internal-talks

intersting

Not news: Mike Trout can't be LeBron James or Wayne Gretzky.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-trout-should-have-won-a-playoff-game-by-now/

BREAKING: Star center fielder Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels are finalizing a record-breaking 12-year contract worth more than $430 million, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Details: https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 19, 2019

hope the Angels get him and Ohtani some damn teammates

wow

holy moly

so weird to think about mike trout, age 40 baseball player. but as these things go, we'll all blink a few times and then suddenly the mike trout retirement thread will be upon us

lol at harper going through all the rigamarole to get a bigger deal than machado

considering what the Phils paid Bryce this seems like a bargain

yeah i think that's a bit low

it’s definitely low but you can only break with precedence so much

a much better use of money than signing the 32(?) year old Pujols to 10 years/240.

only 3 years left on that deal!!!!

good news though:

Look, I know we as LA Angels fans do this every year. One way or another, we find ourselves dwelling on the idea of a possible Albert Pujols “resurgence” and year after year we are disappointed, but hear me out.

LA Angels fans, this could be the year. This could really be the one. Albert Pujols is going to have a good year. I’m speaking (writing) it into existence. I am so confident in Pujols have a good year in 2019 that I would bet… absolutely nothing on it.

My lack of confidence aside, Pujols is having himself a solid Spring Training. He had two surgeries over the offseason, undergoing a procedure on his knee that ended his year while also having bone spurs removed in September. Nonetheless, he is putting on a clinic down in Tempe.

In 19 at-bats, Pujols is slashing .474/.545/.694 for the Angels, proving to us all that he can in fact swing a bat. Only two hits have gone for extra bases, a double and a home run, but Pujols has been making good contact every time he steps up to the plate.

Usually at the beginning of Spring Training we get a quote from The Machine telling us he’s in the best shape of his life, has dropped weight, or something of the sort. This year things were relatively quiet as the best right-handed hitter of all time (yeah I said it) showed up in Tempe. The only reports were regarding his Opening Day status, which is looking good so far.

But none of these Spring Training stats matter unless Pujols can carry it into the regular season. And truth be told Angels fans, I think he can.

Last year, Pujols had to play first base 70 times, his highest total since 2014. Obviously you don’t want someone as injury prone as Pujols manning first that often, and 2019 should prove different for him.

To start the year, Pujols will likely be the everyday designated hitter until Shohei Ohtani returns. Justin Bour will likely be playing first base in that period as well. Once Ohtani returns, things will get interesting as all three players are restricted to 1B/DH.

Obviously, Ohtani will be in the lineup everyday except for the occasional day off and if his rehab towards pitching in 2020 interferes with the game. The Angels are intent on having him ready for 2020 as a pitcher, and have stated that his rehab will take priority.

So when Ohtani doesn’t play, Pujols naturally slides into the DH role. When Ohtani is in the lineup though, there will be some sort of platoon between Pujols and Bour. It could be a natural lefty-righty platoon considering Bour absolutely mashed against right-handed pitching, but that is yet to be determined.

The reason for optimism with Pujols this season comes directly from the fact that he won’t be playing first base nearly as much, keeping him well rested. If Pujols can start the season hot at the plate and carry that momentum once Ohtani comes back, the top of the Angels’ lineup becomes very, very scary.

Albert Pujols has the Los Angeles Angels in a very tough spot. He signed a 10-year, $240 million contract as a free agent prior to the 2012 season. And despite diminishing returns, he intends to fulfill every minute of it, he told Boomskie on Baseball in an exclusive interview a few days ago.

Inclusive of this one, he has three seasons to go on that deal and the Angels owe him $87 million. He turned 39 in January.

“Well, that’s what I signed, right? I signed a 10-year deal,” Pujols said in a nearly empty clubhouse at Tempe Diablo Stadium. “That’s my main goal: to try and honor that. And I’m going to do the best I can to do just that.”

hero

DEFENSE REPORT: 1B Albert Pujols made three errors in the fourth inning, including two on one play. He mishandled one routine bouncer. Then he bobbled another bouncer, for one error, and then swatted the ball into foul territory as he tried to shovel it to first, for a second error. Earlier in the game, Pujols showed some nice footwork to take a wide throw from 3B Ward with his foot on the bag.

Here's the contract valuation for Mike Trout's 12-year, $430 million extension with the Angels. If he's worth more than 44.5 WAR from 2021 to 2032, this contract is a win for Los Angeles. You have to believe that he will easily reach that total. pic.twitter.com/wM1QDVI44R

— Devan Fink (@DevanFink) March 19, 2019

Smart guy, I'd say--happy where's he playing, big payday but not obsessed with the market. Compared to the three big recent signings, he could have held out for a lot more, I'm sure, either in fewer years or more money.

all that's true, but i'm sure the angels are very happy that he's a smart guy

Definitely. And if they ever get out from under the Pujols contract, they can go get him some help.

that WAR above seems very conservative...am I missing something? A decline in age 30 season to 4.1? His avg seasonal WAR (discounting 40 gm rookie season) is 9.1

GIven this projection (and assuming he maintains current avg in 2019/20) he would end the contract 12th in WAR btw Musial and Hornsby

Or I guess this is just what he would minimally need to do in order to justify the $?

I’m more interested in what his surplus value is w that contract

Or I guess this is just what he would minimally need to do in order to justify the $?

― heinrich boll weevil (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, March 19, 2019 3:50 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

correct

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-trout-is-a-430-million-bargain/

The title is, if things go as expected, absolutely true, but it made me laugh anyway because every 538 title is constructed the same way, sports and politics both. They had that title ready to go no matter what he signed for.

trout's contract compared to others, with everything converted to 2019 dollars:

https://i.imgur.com/mbm4u8M.png
"I’ve included two Trout contracts below. The first is the $426.5 million figure representing the total value of the money owed to Trout; the second is Trout’s extension, assuming 5% inflation in the following two seasons."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-leaves-money-on-the-table-again/

Those who call Mke Trout “boring” think the Karkrasians are celebrities. Trout cares about being the best, 3.9 or 4.0 to first, winning, being a great teammate, person, without need for celebrity or entourage.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) March 20, 2019

lolll

How exactly is the $10M/WAR number calculated? I always see these kinds of numbers but am never completely sure where they come from. Two win players are definitely not getting $20M/yr on the open market now. I'm assuming they look at every current player who signed via free agency and are calculating the average WAR they've put up over the length of their contract.

For example, take Albert Pujols' contract, he's making $24M/yr and he's averaged about 1.5 WAR/yr (I'm estimating) over the seven years of his contract, so that's $16M per win per year. Factor in all free agents in the same way, and you get to $10M/WAR.

If this is how it's done, I'm not sure I buy it. Is inflation taken into account? What about players who sign extensions that buy out their free agent years? Fewer big stars even reach free agency, and you could argue that the lesser players that do are increasingly overpaid, which makes WAR more expensive on the open market. etc.

leg cramp!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26383539/trout-suffers-leg-cramp-escapes-serious-injury