Let's Bitch About Our Stupid, Annoying Baseball Team: the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

I hope today is the day they give up their dreams of the third wild-card and get going on whatever comes next.

This game was brutal.

I hope today is the day they give up their dreams of the third wild-card and get going on whatever comes next.

I'm not sure whether this was written before, or after the Jays came back and then blew the game. The post works either way!

I think the Tigers were up 9-5 when I posted.

They're five games out of the last wild card spot, behind a bunch of team that also have their flaws. Last year's DBacks were under .500 in August and made it to the WS, so most teams definitely shouldn't be punting the season in May.

The real problem with the Jays is that the grand strategy is "wait for the offense to come around", without any acknowledgement that the team on the field now is who they are. The offense of 2020 and 2021 isn't happening again, and last year's pitching and defense was due for some regression. It's that simple, but the front office brainiacs don't seem to get it.

I don't disagree with any of that, but to me, hanging around and hoping you catch a third WC spot--and they've have to play .560+ baseball to even win 85; what reason is there for thinking this team could sustain .560 for 110 games?--just prolongs this charade. (Which is one reason I didn't want Arizona to win the WS last year--I think the ripple effect on a team like the Jays, who are happy to drift along tinkering on the cheap, is not good.) I'd rather just start over, even though I don't really know what that would entail.

they've = they'd

and the championship Braves I believe were .500 at the AS break. Wouldn't you wait until at least July to sell? they'll go on a good streak at some point - i think the Jays are reasonably set up for the Postseason (pitching is good enough with some small sample offensive luck). A lot of teams seem to set themselves up to be just good to grab a WC; it's just a matter of whether their shit does (or doesn't) work in the playoffs.

Yeah the lesson of the 2023 Diamondbacks isn't "don't get your hopes up".

.560 baseball to win 85 games can be accomplished with three more months of .500 baseball and a 14-2 run. A lot of teams have snuck in that way. There's some luck involved, even if it means they're a lot closer to being a true talent .500 team than a .560 team.

I think I see this team very differently than you guys. A 14-2 run seems a tall order for a team that hasn't yet swept a series, even if only two games.

I'd sell at whatever point in the season will normally get you the best return. Don't know when that is.

They haven't swept a series -- that's true. But that's past performance. And it reflects their true talent level -- arguably that of a .500 team that can't dominate opponents. It doesn't mean that they can't get lucky and go on a mini-run.

I'm not optimistic. It means that the entire offense has to wake up at the same time over at least a two week stretch. Again, take last year's Diamondbacks. They were essentially a .500 team. They were outscored on the season. They had a strong first two months, then were bad until mid-August, and were barely good enough in September. And this year, they're back at .500. Things can happen.

i'm still with this team, they're very interesting. I think they'll make the playoffs, esp. with HOU faltering early. they did go on a 19-6 run last year (.684), I posted last year regarding the SP stretch of about 10 games with 1.00 ERA with the same staff as now. Vlad is over .400 the last month and Bo is looking like he's back. as for old men, Springer is moved to 7 and JTurn needs to sit regularly to keep smt in the tank, i think. who knows? i'm not optimistic but would be bummed to see the window close even earlier than it is closing now

this team is headed for a fire sale, i think. the core - the management - I'm not sure whats to blame, but this is a team that has choked horribly in the playoffs three years in a row and plays inconsistently during the season; very rarely firing on all cylinders. i'm fine with waiting until deeper into the season to make that call. i'd be fine with locking up one or two of our guys long term (why they haven't already i don't understand) also. but this is not a team that has it in them to win or hit some crazy hot streak. for whatever reason they're much better on paper. maybe they can play better and fumble their way into the wild card - but i am not hopeful.

Which is part of my throwing in the towel: even if they were to fumble their way into the third WC--which I give them no more than a 10% chance at, which might be generous--we've seen them in the playoffs these last couple of years.

For me, the desirability of a backdoor WC (where you win 84, 85 games or so) depends on context. If you go back 10 years, you can find me posting in Blue Jay threads that all I wanted was to play meaningful games in late September--they'd been nowhere for so long, the bar for a successful season was pretty low. But after 2015/16, and after all the underachieving of this team, a third WC just isn't very exciting to me--even though I realize that that will sometimes lead to much more. But with this team, even that scenario is purely theoretical.

Assuming they get the win tonight, I'm extremely interested in what happens tomorrow, especially with regards to the last few posts. Because if you can't sweep a 15-41 team...(and if they do, I'll take that as a tiny, tiny sign of life).

In what universe is not making the playoffs preferable to making the playoffs? Because being in the playoffs and not having the best team on paper might be a recipe for disappointment?

They may have sucked in the postseason the last two years, but they had an opportunity to win the WS -- their chances weren't good, but it was a chance. When you don't make the playoffs you have zero chance.

There are at least two answers that seem obvious to me: 1) When not making the playoffs leads to a rebuild like the one the Astros underwent way back, that leads to a period of sustained success and teams that are legitimate WS contenders, as opposed to WC teams who get in on a wing and a prayer (because somebody has to once the playoffs are expanded enough). Or like the Orioles now. I know the counter-arguments you'll throw up--the cheating, the fact that the Orioles haven't yet won anything and may not sustain their success, the patience required, the luck required...I get all that. 2) When not making the playoffs leads to the smarmy, incompetent GM getting fired--and maybe, if we're lucky, his boss too.

You can reverse the order there: the second one should happen first, so we have a better chance at #1.

I think we start from the same spot--recognition that the Jays' philosophy is to tinker just enough to grab one of those wild-cards--but have a very different estimation of how rewarding a strategy that is.

(I could quote you in a couple of your early posts in this thread, which are much closer to what I just wrote...)

more importantly, thoughts on this? (posting on team thread bc they're uncomfirmed cityconnects
https://i.postimg.cc/PrK2P2P5/IMG-1263.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/qvRQny3X/IMG-1264.jpg

The hat's okay; the jersey would be like wearing a refractor card.

those are hideous but not notably worse than the rest of these grotesque uniforms

honestly feel like ilx could come up with better ideas

Supposedly they’re fake

I could look it up, but maybe someone could give me a one- or two-sentence explanation of what City Connect is all about. I haven't a clue. Is this a company in the process of taking over uniform design for all teams, or is it just a fan thing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Connect

think the idea as a whole was taken from the NBA's 'city edition' jerseys

sorry, that is not a one- or two-sentence explanation

i look at it as an nba thing. i hope those aren’t the kits. supposed to be about the city, i want to be selfish as a torontonian and not have any “canadas team” reference for once. but not the gd skyline, that’s insanely lazy

I have a Juan Soto Padres city connect shirsey and it is awesome, way more than this pic would indicate:

https://i.imgur.com/cNMQSbL.png

Somewhere in Ball Four, Bouton gets nostalgic for the simplicity of his old Yankees uniform, and writes something about feeling like a clown in whatever the Pilots wore (which I'm guessing was less garish than that Jays jersey above).

You can see them here:

https://www.toddradom.com/blog/the-1969-seattle-pilots-one-team-one-season-many-uniforms

The Mariners used them as part inspiration for their own (polarising) city connects; I personally like them and have a city connect hoodie, the blue rules tbh

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/fans/city-connect

I think most teams with city connect designs have a page like this explaining the details; personally still think the Padres have everyone else beaten with theirs: https://www.mlb.com/padres/fans/city-connect

i liked the mariners city connect enough that i was using the it on my custom team in the show for a while. eventually stopped using it when i thought one day "i look like the police" and couldn't unsee it

Platinum Blonde looked a lot like the Police.

My feelings about the Jays aside, hate hearing that Manoah left in the 2nd tonight with some kind of injury.

Unrelated: Martin Maldonado's OPS+ right now is -23. I thought OPS+ was a percentage, and that a negative number was impossible. Anyway, not welcome on my all-catcher fantasy team.

I saw someone else with a negative as well, I can’t remember who but aldo didn’t realize it was possible

I don't like either the jersey or the hat. The hat logo looks a lot like the "T" design they used around 2005? It didn't last long.

The Manoah news sounds bad. Why did they pitch him when they knew he was hurting after his last start?

This image, for Joe Carter's upcoming annual golf tournament in Oakville, made me laugh.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxx9n60j/josh.jpg

If anyone's going have a temper tantrum on the course and beat someone senseless with a golf club, it's John Donaldson.

Is that Josh’s evil twin?

Or is Josh the evil one

(Twin Peaks man-from-another-place voice) One and the same.

I think OPS+ isn't actually measuring a guy's OPS to the average, it's measuring his OBP to the average, his SLG to the average, and combining them. So if his OBP is 10% above average and his SLG is 15%, his OPS would be 125. And if his OBP is more than 50% below average and his SLG is more than 50% below average, you get below zero.

opened mlb the show today and i guess those are the real toronto city connects lol

I will be getting the backpack version Wednesday. That one doesn’t lol too bad tbh; but the connect Vlad bobblehead we were set to get Monday was a “no thank you” from me and the gf

I like the City Connect "Night Mode" uniform!

Me: Can we get hyperized birdhead?

Mom: no, we have hyperize--, oh wait

What is a hyperized bird head? pic.twitter.com/npr7w0RPT1

— Sophie is a hyperized borealis (@snowphieee) May 30, 2024

let's see if this can go 20 innings despite the man on second

I kind of gave up on my Cy Young bet after Berrios had that one miserable game, but geez--how much do Cy Young voters get into the weeds and start looking at game logs? Take away that one start--8 earned runs in 3.2 IP--and Berrios has 11 starts ranging from 5 to 7 innings; one of 3 earned runs, five of 2 earned runs, two of 1 earned run, two of no earned runs. I think Shulman said that, including tonight, his ERA would be 1.94 otherwise.

Three with no earned runs, that should read.

what an ending

Took a look at Scooby-Doo's game logs out of Detroit--never less than 5 innings, 4 runs a couple of times, his other nine starts 0, 1, or 2. Translates to an ERA almost a full run less than Berrios. I don't know who else is in the mix, but I need for some team to step up and shellac him.