You can’t spell ‘no big contracts’ without RSN: 2024 regular MLB season thread!

seems like he's being BABIPed pretty hard and i don't think it's too unusual for rookies to regress

but yeah the drastic power dropoff is not ideal

WAR accounts for bad BABIP luck though. I thought he'd probably regress but more to like a 3-4 WAR very good dude instead he looks like someone who maybe needs to get sent back down

Some Carroll posting from late May:

You can’t spell ‘no big contracts’ without RSN: 2024 regular MLB season thread!

(Including from you!)

I like this photo:

https://i.postimg.cc/J7jVmRkX/teoscar.jpg

Led me to check in on Biggio--brutal start in L.A. for whatever playing time he's getting.

Are the Rays officially selling?

Source confirms: Brewers acquiring Aaron Civale from Rays for a minor-league infielder. First: @JonHeyman

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 3, 2024

Trying to search that, but all I can find are 10 worst ROY seasons or 10 worst careers for ROYs, nothing about follow-up seasons.

Found at least one without too much trouble--unlike Carroll, I don't think anybody thought he had an especially brilliant career in store (and he won in a strike season): Bob Hamelin's 1995 season, .168/.278/.313.

― clemenza, Monday, 27 May 2024

i asked chatgpt to figure it out. here's what it suggested:

Bob Hamelin (1994 Kansas City Royals)

Rookie Year (1994):
bWAR: 2.6
wRC+: 136
OPS: .987
Second Year (1995):
bWAR: -1.6
wRC+: 37
OPS: .557

Jerome Walton (1989 Chicago Cubs)

Rookie Year (1989):
bWAR: 2.8
wRC+: 106
OPS: .721
Second Year (1990):
bWAR: 0.1
wRC+: 67
OPS: .644

Pat Listach (1992 Milwaukee Brewers)

Rookie Year (1992):
bWAR: 4.1
wRC+: 100
OPS: .741
Second Year (1993):
bWAR: 1.2
wRC+: 69
OPS: .585

Angel Berroa (2003 Kansas City Royals)

Rookie Year (2003):
bWAR: 2.9
wRC+: 91
OPS: .789
Second Year (2004):
bWAR: 0.2
wRC+: 74
OPS: .660

Chris Coghlan (2009 Florida Marlins)

Rookie Year (2009):
bWAR: 2.7
wRC+: 125
OPS: .850
Second Year (2010):
bWAR: 0.7
wRC+: 95
OPS: .718

---

i asked for another five and it suggested Mark Fidrych, Joe Charboneau, Kerry Wood (who was just injured in 1999), Ron Kittle, and Hideo Nomo (which it preemptively got defensive about said "although he did perform well, his ERA and WHIP slightly increased and he had fewer strikeouts per nine innings")

i double-checked to see if the players listed actually won the ROY, and they did. didn't check all the individual stats. while it's true that chatgpt is an LLM and it can definitely just make up shit by trying to "fill in" what it thinks should go in a sentence, it also had an upgrade recently that allows it to browse the internet and refer to databases and statistics and stuff. it's a really fucking horrible idea, i think, and it will go badly. but for now at least i can see how it works with baseball

Willie McCovey spent a good part of his season in triple A the year after he won

I'm pretty sure neither of the main WARs (bb-ref and fangraphs) factor in BABIP to their WAR for hitters (fangraphs kinda does for pitchers, in that their WAR is based on walks, hits, and homers, while bb-ref's is based on runs allowed)

Thanks, KM. I have to memorize that group--great Immaculate Grid fodder. (I've used Hamlin and Walton but not the other three.)

Fidrych definitely a special case too--he actually pitched really well in '77 in about a third of a season (6-4, 2.89, FIP of 2.50, 2.4 WAR).

well, I can thank AI for making me think of Pat Listach for likely the final time in my life

Jerome Walton had that 30 game hit streak in 1989, which probably sealed the deal for him as ROY. That plus the Cubs winning the division title. But in retrospect he was definitely not a player who was built to last.

he only finished third in ROY but francouer is always my go to for this kinda cliff drop & if you look at his career vs carroll right now...

francouer 05 - 127 wRC+ / .372 wOBA / 3.0 fWAR
francouer 06 - 84 wRC+ / .313 wOBA / 0.7 fWAR

carroll 23 - 133 wRC+ / .370 wOBA / 5.4 fWAR
carroll 24 - 78 wRC+ / .277 wOBA / 2.4 fWAR (projected)

pretty similar stats except carroll's drop is even more precipitous, and the WAR projection is being buoyed by projections that could potentially be way too rosy

it's obv not the same bcuz of the in between year but...

julio rodriguez 22 - 146 wRC+ / .366 wOBA / 5.7 fWAR
julio rodriguez 23 - 126 wRC+ / .347 w0BA / 5.6 fWAR
julio rodriguez 24 - 82 wRC+ / .277 wOBA / 2.9 fWAR (projected)

There's definitely a history of ROY winners whose best season was their first, even if they didn't fall off a cliff. With Carroll I gotta believe it's some kind of lingering injury, last season wasn't exactly fluky or a shallow counting stats kinda year. It was a five tool performance.

xp obviously not ideal, but putting up 2.9 fWAR while hitting for shit is impressive in its own right

that's a pretty optimistic projection given how many ABs he's already had. he hasn't been particuarly good on the basepaths either (small sample size though lol). rooting for him though.

Francouer was actually my first thought too! but I looked it up and it wasn't too dramatic. he's a weird case though IIRC it wasn't even his "rookie season" it was like his first 150 ABs that were out of this world after which he just became...kind of okay

There's definitely a history of ROY winners whose best season was their first, even if they didn't fall off a cliff. With Carroll I gotta believe it's some kind of lingering injury, last season wasn't exactly fluky or a shallow counting stats kinda year. It was a five tool performance.

Btw Julio was really bad first half of last season, so bad that there was talk of sending him to Tacoma (triple A) and then he exploded in the second half and his numbers looked better as they always do. Don’t rule that out this year either.

J.D. Martinez (ankle, Amazon purchase) is back in the Mets' lineup tonight. Adidas overnighted him three emergency pairs of cleats to hold him over until the larger shipment of 30 or so pairs arrives. (A pair of cleats typically lasts him only around three games.)

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 3, 2024

maybe adidas is also using fanatics as its manufacturer?

heyooo

This rules, all relievers should do this

https://t.co/35va43qWAt pic.twitter.com/8UVJSYD4H5

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 4, 2024

Lol the Nats are so proud of their bullpen cart. Nobody uses it but when a reliever comes in they open up the little door and the cart zooms out and does two laps around the field anyway, just to keep it loose I guess

I think that's Bill Caudill on the Mariners program, bottom right, one of the bullpen saviors the Jays tried before they struck gold with Henke.

It’s sort of dumb that dudes like Heath Bell would sprint to the mound, yeah? Why would you want to elevate your heart rate etc right before you start pitching?

JT Realmuto agrees with you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjppLBbyczo

It’s sort of dumb that dudes like Heath Bell would sprint to the mound, yeah? Why would you want to elevate your heart rate etc right before you start pitching?

― brimstead, Thursday, July 4, 2024 9:02 AM (one hour ago)

Have never been a pitcher, but something about recruiting lactate & catecholamines (sp?) into fast twitch muscle fibers in order to boost muscle performance.

src: was a coached by sports physiologist/professor at top university in my country

i just went to a npb game where there was a bullpen car (used multiple times)

lmao mlb, this is such a huge cultural difference for me

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/07/red-sox-jarren-duran-on-mlb-warning-over-shirt-a-fine-id-be-happy-to-pay.html

MIAMI — On a column next to Jarren Duran’s locker in the Red Sox’ clubhouse at Fenway Park, a two-page letter from Major League Baseball is posted for everyone to see.

The letter, addressed directly to Duran, is from Michael Hill, the league’s senior vice president of on-field operations. It’s an official warning that Duran violated policies by wearing a custom-made undershirt that says “F--- ‘Em’ in a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster after Duran hit a walk-off single to beat the Blue Jays in a comeback win June 24. One page of the letter is Hill’s warning that Duran shouldn’t be seen on TV wearing a shirt with expletives on it. The other is the evidence — screenshots of Duran and Webster on the field with Duran donning the shirt.

Duran understands that he broke baseball’s rules. But considering what the slogan means to Duran — and everything he has been through in both his major league career and life — the letter isn’t going to change much.

“I’m not surprised because obviously, it’s bad words and bad language,” he said Thursday before playing the Marlins. “It’s understandable. I’m glad they didn’t fine me. They just gave me a warning. If I ever hit a walk-off again, I’ll just take everything off so I don’t get in trouble.

“But that would be a fine I’d be happy to pay,” he added. “I wouldn’t have a problem paying that fine because it’s just me wearing something that means a lot to me.”

When the Celtics visited Fenway Park to celebrate their NBA championship early last week, Joe Mazzulla liked Duran’s shirt so much that the outfielder gifted him one.

Just talking with friends about something related last night, though the opposite of what you're saying: how, post-Trump, "fuck" is all over CNN now, even early in the evening. Bill Maher uses it liberally and they leave it in. I swear like a truck driver, but, irrational though it may be, I don't like hearing it on a news network. I guess that's the teacher in me.

it's due to the FCC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_dirty_words

I'll probably get grief from someone for "swears like a truck driver." My dad drove both milk and bread trucks at various points. Just an expression.

I swear like a truck driver

I do! Especially behind the wheel, but pretty much all day long. Mostly to myself, and mindful of who's listening.