GRADUATED
Miguel Cabrera 1st yearAdam Wainwright noZack Greinke yesEvan Longoria *Nelson Cruz *Madison Bumgarner no
very different players, but longoria and cruz are kind of flipped versions of each other in terms of how their early and late careers went. longoria did all his outstanding stuff in his 20s, and provided average value throughout his 30s with a bunch of injuries. cruz didn't cruz until his late 20s going into early 30s, and then had an absolutely outstanding 30s. but...he was a dh, so the bar for his career offensive output is higher
― z_tbd, Friday, 5 July 2024 18:58 (three months ago) link
Cruz also got suspended for 50 games for buying drugs from the Biogenesis clinic
― The Yellow Kid, Friday, 5 July 2024 19:05 (three months ago) link
(xpost to myself) Lindor has a much better narrative-profile, though--Ernie Banks, basically, as opposed to scandal-damaged and then the failed-physicals debacle--so Lindor's is in fact the better bet.
― clemenza, Friday, 5 July 2024 19:08 (three months ago) link
damn, had totally forgotten about that. helps to explain how he had a .328 ISO as a 39-year-old
― z_tbd, Friday, 5 July 2024 19:33 (three months ago) link
I am once again asking the @SFGiants to offer Barry Bonds a pro-rated league minimum deal and an opportunity to pinch-hit in one game at the end of the season so that his Hall of Fame eligibility clock resets.— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) August 1, 2024
― 龜, Friday, 2 August 2024 16:08 (two months ago) link
I guess I should have known, but I didn't realize you could reset the clock once your ballot window had expired. I don't think they'd be doing Bonds a favour, though, just setting him up for another 10 years of purgatory.
― clemenza, Friday, 2 August 2024 16:22 (two months ago) link
Lads i have just been to the hall of fame. I had fun
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 7 August 2024 01:41 (one month ago) link
First time?
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 7 August 2024 02:21 (one month ago) link
Second walk, timely DP.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 7 August 2024 02:25 (one month ago) link
Oops.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 7 August 2024 02:26 (one month ago) link
Ya first time; may never need to go again unless im reaaaaaly close bc its a shitfuck to get here
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 7 August 2024 02:29 (one month ago) link
Corey Seager has really picked it up after a slow start. He's 30 now, and getting close to good-bet territory, I'd say (giving him some extra credit for his post-season heroics). Needs maybe two or three AS-level seasons, and two or three scenery seasons after that?
― clemenza, Monday, 12 August 2024 21:33 (one month ago) link
Noticed that Salvador Perez now has 269 HR and 900 RBI. Catchers with 300/1000: Piazza, Fisk, Bench, Berra, Parrish, Rodriguez, Carter. All of them in the Hall except Parrish (can't remember how long he lasted on the ballot). If Perez gets to 300/1000--he's only 34, so he should--and you add in the five GG, numerous ASG, and the WS win, I have to believe he'll go in, even though his WAR will likely be under 50.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 17:39 (one month ago) link
I thought Perez was way older than 34!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:12 (one month ago) link
Double checked: 34 years, 107 days. Came up when he was 21.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:16 (one month ago) link
I have to believe he'll go in, even though his WAR will likely be under 50.
ooooooof, i don't know. WAR isn't everything, and of course it's especially a work in progress for catchers. but i just looked up perez, expecting to see like 30 or 40, and he's at 17.6 fWAR! for comparison, yadi wound up at 55.6. more importantly, perez ranks behind 5 other active catchers in fWAR, including grandal with 39 (!), realmuto, the elder contreras, d'arnaud and will smith.
war doesn't end any discussion, there are many factors in the HoF that about more than stats, and i think that's a good thing. but, i think WAR is helpful when it leads you to look closer at a player beyond the headline stats and consider WHY they're being penalized in a stat or fare worse in it than others. for perez, you're right, he has nearly 300 HR, nearing 1000 RBI, those are the big round numbers that i once paid attention to, as well. so, why is perez already behind 5 other active catchers in fWAR, despite his long career and home runs and playing all the time?
his hitting has been about average (103 wRC+) over the course of his career. great power in recent years, but like yadi, he can't take a walk and he's slow as fuck. you might think "yes, but that's good hitting for a catcher", and yes, that's right, i think carrying an average hitting line is great for a catcher (yadi wound up with a 97 wRC+ despite some superlative offensive seasons in the early 2010s). the problem is, "for a catcher" implies that the catcher is a plus defender. perez was an average to below average catcher, defensively, consistently not great for his entire career and of course getting worse as time passes. he looks bad in career WAR because he didn't provide above-average production on offense or defense. he just hit a bunch of HRs
it's his defense. it has long graded out as average to slightly below average. catcher, more than any other position, is tilted toward defensive value - it's hard to find a great, above-average, or elite defensive catcher who can also hold their own at the plate. so if you hang at catcher and you're below average defensively, you have to be an offensive machine. perez has been great in some years, he has great power and
it's not his defense. overall, it has graded out to be worse than an average MLB catcher. since catcher is a weak batting position, relative to the rest of the lineup, usually defense is the
― z_tbd, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:44 (one month ago) link
oops, please delete the last two paragraphs - meant to erase those before posting. believe it or not i sometimes do little drafts before these horrible posts
― z_tbd, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:45 (one month ago) link
it's weird, bWAR dings Yadier a bit, he's around 42, and Salvy is around 35(!). maybe his HOF path will depend on which site the voters visit.
― omar little, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:46 (one month ago) link
it also grades him as a good defender, which probably shows some level of imperfection in how defense is measured behind the plate.
― omar little, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:47 (one month ago) link
Will have to revisit...he does okay with bWAR: ~35 right now, should end up around 45-50.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:50 (one month ago) link
yeah, i'd be curious what people who saw perez play more frequently have to say about his defense! i only got to see him play a handful of times
― z_tbd, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:50 (one month ago) link
fWAR did a big revamp to catching WAR a year or two ago, and i remember that yadi got a huuuuuuuge boost for certain seasons. in particular, his 2012 season suddenly became monstrous and MVP-like because of a boost to his DEF.
i don't think perez fared well in that change to fWAR/catcher value
― z_tbd, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:52 (one month ago) link
At the very least, he seems like a guy who'd go in via the VC down the road.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 18:52 (one month ago) link
anyway, sorry to drag it into WAR crap - like i mentioned, i do understand and respect that the HoF is about more than all that. and perez has been a lifelong royal, heavy respect for that
That's what I think will give him an edge with the VC (along with the round numbers and the GG/ASG/WS honours): reputation as a team leader, and maybe the one-team career, which I suspect is a positive. The VC has rescued a couple of WAR guys (Ted Simmons and Trammell), but mostly it catches players who fall short on WAR but were thought at one time to be headed for the HOF (McGriff, Hodges, Kaat, Oliva, etc.--long list).
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 19:52 (one month ago) link
Salvy is far below Posada and slightly below contemporary JT in JAWS. Munson is 11th all time and not in.
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 25 August 2024 20:48 (one month ago) link
I fully expect Munson to be reevaluated when Posey goes in; they are so similar in so many ways.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 20:53 (one month ago) link
Except the death and being unpleasant part
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 25 August 2024 20:58 (one month ago) link
Wasn't he the lovable curmudgeon on a high-priced glamour team?
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 22:07 (one month ago) link
i would say he was an unpleasant redass on a high-priced team of psychos but flags fly forever
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 25 August 2024 22:09 (one month ago) link
Found this old SI piece: "prickly."
https://vault.si.com/vault/1976/09/13/hes-a-dish-only-behind-the-plate
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 22:11 (one month ago) link
Actually just ordered Dan Epstein's book on Ron Blomberg and Munson a few days ago.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 22:13 (one month ago) link
Anyway, outside of personalities (think I posted about this when Posey retired):
Posey - ROY, MVP (1.63 MVP share), 3 WS, 1 GG, 5,607 PA, 44.8 bWAR (5.3/162 games)Munson - ROY, MVP (1.50 MVP share), 2 WS 3 GG, 5,344 PA, 46.1 bWAR (5.2/162 games)
Posey was the better hitter, for sure.
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 August 2024 22:21 (one month ago) link
an unpleasant redass on a high-priced team of psychos
I would watch this miniseries
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 26 August 2024 03:09 (one month ago) link
You're in luck: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bronx_Is_Burning.
― clemenza, Monday, 26 August 2024 10:14 (one month ago) link
Well shit! 7.8 on IMDB!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 26 August 2024 18:18 (one month ago) link
I've seen it. It held my attention (had already read the book), but as I remember it, some laughable performances in there.
― clemenza, Monday, 26 August 2024 19:39 (one month ago) link
Some FB thing, easy to cut and paste:
https://i.postimg.cc/DzPxhCnW/hof.jpg
Obviously they're too cautious re "could retire today"--you could add another five from the "probably" group--and some from their bottom group could be moved up. Don't think I'd put any closer above "there's a chance" at this point.
― clemenza, Friday, 30 August 2024 17:02 (one month ago) link
Not looking fwd to janssen and kimbrel discourse
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 August 2024 17:29 (one month ago) link
Also yelich is a hard no way. Hes not there in peak, war total or jaws qnd dont see him moving that needle
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 August 2024 17:31 (one month ago) link
Also a PED issue, no?
― clemenza, Friday, 30 August 2024 18:03 (one month ago) link
N ur thinking of braun
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 August 2024 18:48 (one month ago) link
I’d put Trea Turner ahead of Clase or Yelich in terms of HoF odds
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 30 August 2024 18:49 (one month ago) link
(xpost) Right...If Yelich were in the middle of a five-season run where he was playing at an AS level, I'd say he's in decent position, but that's not the shape of his career.
― clemenza, Friday, 30 August 2024 18:55 (one month ago) link
i would kinda also think that kimbrel is shooting his own dick off by continuing to play but this line just sucks to look at regardless
Career WAR | 19.4 7yr-peak WAR | 21.4 JAWS | 20.2 R-JAWS | 1.9 WAR/162 Average HOF RP (out of 8): 39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 August 2024 20:28 (one month ago) link
Kenley is not better.
22.2 career WAR | 16.0 7yr-peak WAR | 19.1 JAWS | 22.7 R-JAWS | 1.7 WAR/162
Average HOF RP (out of 8):
39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 August 2024 20:30 (one month ago) link
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, August 30, 2024 1:29 PM (four hours ago)
I'm going to enlist Dana Bash to grill you on this flagrant flip-flop.
― clemenza, Friday, 30 August 2024 22:05 (one month ago) link
Kimbrel has been a plain bad closer since 2018, one half season with the Cubs notwithstanding. Kenley just doesn't really rise to some level that transcends being a closer, either. their value overall is so much less than, idk, Jason Heyward.
― omar little, Friday, 30 August 2024 22:09 (one month ago) link
Definitely move to "it's gonna be close": Ramirez, Soto, Alvarez, Lindor. (And if you wanted to argue for "probably," I wouldn't disagree.)
― clemenza, Friday, 30 August 2024 23:51 (one month ago) link
yeah soto just seems like the kind of guy who will be putting up 5-7 WAR seasons for the next 10 years
― brony james (k3vin k.), Saturday, 31 August 2024 00:20 (one month ago) link