SI predicts the Cubs to win it all this year.

Sporting News did, too. I'm thinking about not even watching any of the games now, that's how little hope I have.

that's ridiculous, the NL Central is way too tight...

if the cubs were in the NL West or even the NL East, then yes, they definitely are playoff bound. but the cards and astros bats could turn those cubby aces into jelly by august. both teams have very scary middle of the orders.

The NL Central pennant race will be a pyrrhic victory.

anyone else think the darkhorse trend will continue (d-backs, angels, marlins...)?

Yeah, I think you're right gygax. I imagine the NL Central will shape up a lot like it did last year, with the upper teams feasting a little more on the bottom of the NL Central and the other two divisions than they did in 2003. Mid-90s in wins for the top contenders, maybe, instead of the slog to .500 (or so it seemed) we witnessed last year.

The Padres seem to be everyone's choice for the "out of nowhere" WS contender. I could see the Mets in the same role, too.

Which doesn't really answer your question. I dunno, if this were the NFL the darkhorses would just be chalked up to parity but I think it's causes are a little more complex in baseball. Some combination of talent dilution and the wild card system maybe? Bill Beane's ol' "fucking luck?"

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the trend continued.

I have a 3:1 $20 bet that the Mets finish with a better record than the Yanquis.

The last three world champs were all very hot going into the playoffs and it carried over. Maybe the front runners having such a big lead and taking the last month off takes them a bit off their game, I don't know. This kind of thing sometimes happens in the NBA, as a top division team will get knocked out early in the playoffs.

The spring has been a bit shaky for the Cubs. Prior isn't going to pitch until May!

I still don't see why people are betting on the Padres, their starting pitching looks pretty shabby. David Wells is the ace of the starters. I like pretty much everyone else in the division over the Padres. I just can't see them finishing much more than .500 at best. I could see the Rockies having a decent season more than SD.

I could definitely see the Mets rebounding and having a good year more than the Padres, especially if Glavine and Leiter can both defy their age and Piazza is healthy. A tight race between the Phillies and Mets could be interesting. It is hard to tell if the Marlins or Braves will compete, it could happen, but it is just as likely they end up 70-92.

The real question is who the hell is going to win the AL Central? The Twins have been weakened somewhat, but the rest of the division is lame. The Indians may be the suprise team as they have been going young and who knows, it might all click together. I doubt the White Sox will get as good a season out of their starting pitching. Can the Royals improve on last season? I don't know, they got slowed by some injuries down the stretch. I tend to doubt it, but the players love playing for Tony Pena.

harold reynolds picked the devil rays to finish third in the al east. i'm a fan, but even i think that's more than a little preposterous -- they still need to shore up their pitching a lot (as this morning's yankee romp indicated; too bad victor zambrano can't start every other game, eh?).

I don't suppose the preview is online anywhere, is it?

You don't mean the Scouting Reports, do you?

SI also has the Astros winning a playoff series, which has not ever happened. People need to start calling Houston out also as they are like zero for 40+ years as a franchise, especially since the Angels won it a couple of years ago.

Thx, Leee.

as for the braves finishing 3rd in the nl east, i'm not sure that god almighty has given permission for that quite yet.

Redbird Nation pointed out this SI cover. Think 61-101.

The AL Central winner will likely be the Twins. The Royals' pitching staff is dinged up, and the White Sox only have 3 decent starters in Buehrle, Loaiza and Garland. I'm expecting the division to be a lot tighter than last year, with real improvement by the Tigers (who will still finish with about 65-70 wins) and Indians. I say the Twins take the division with 90 wins or so.

One month later: this looks like the most tightly contested division.