2014 ALCS : Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals

I like Baltimore, and they're clearly a lot better than I thought they were through the season (I kept waiting for them to fold), but the Royals would have to be the most improbable Series participant since...'03 Marlins? I don't know. Anyway, they're a great story, and I'm even learning some of their names. Cain making those two catches last night made me like them even more. When the Royals won in '85, James wrote an epic 20-page history of Kansas City baseball in that year's Abstract. I figure Posnanski will be good for twice that if they win this year.

not voting

rooting O's

and they're clearly a lot better than I thought they were through the season

not unless you thought they were a 70-win team. SSS.

how do Baltimore's Not Wieters catchers throw?

My sense is that Wieters himself is not the CS machine he was earlier in his career.

Orioles arguably put out the best defense in the league, should be effective against a team that shoots singles through the infield instead of hitting balls out. O's in 5.

wonder how the tv execs feel about this one

Do Royals fans love Aoki yet?

xpost let's just say I won't be shocked to see a Jeter tribute or two, or "Great Moments in ALCS History" segments leading into commercial breaks featuring Jeter, Ortiz, Brett, Ripken, and Jeter.

I finally saw the Jeter "My Way" spot and want to kill

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzSBBYDCIAAnCAx.png

Cruz is now tied with Aaron for ninth on the career postseason SLG list:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/Playoffs_batting.shtml

He's only one of three with over 100 AB, though. Pretty good list--three inner-inner-circle HOF'ers, with A.J. Ellis the only egregious name on there.

zach britton's wife will have her labor induced tonight so he can be available for game 1 on friday

this is one of those posts that i can't tell if it's for real or not.

popping one for the team

https://twitter.com/Britt_Ghiroli/status/519227799853600768

amazing.

how do Baltimore's Not Wieters catchers throw?

― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, October 6, 2014 10:58 AM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

joseph is good and hundley is terrible. but hundley is basically chris tillman's personal catcher, and tillman has allowed 15 SBs in his entire career incl 2 in his last 400 innings.

no matter who wins this is going to be super exciting can't wait

Do Royals fans love Aoki yet?

Still for real curious about this btw. I'd heard earlier in the season fans were unimpressed or lukewarm with Aoki; has that changed?

how could you not love aoki

I heard a Uecker broadcast maybe just a month or two ago where he was talking about Aoki (one of his favorite all time players), and he was saying "they must love him out there in KC, right? What's he hitting out there?" Then he paused when he heard the answer. "That's it?"

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Royals in five.

has Showalter really not announced his pitchers for the initial games, per the mlb.com schedule? d'bag

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

These teams haven't played each other since May.

this is a hard series 2 predict i think i voted o's in 6 but since then ive been thinking kc tbh

going to game 1, which may become game 2, and game 7, if it happens

if tomorrow is rained out these two teams will play 5 in a row (unless sweep)

yeah, looks like they better get this one done by 11pm (or it'll be suspended)

this is pretty cool: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-chris-tillman-keeps-runners-from-running

Brian Matusz replaces Ubaldo on O's roster; KC the same as LDS

good to go, no rain expected til 12:30

Fairly excited.

what happens when u get *really* excited

TBS fucks up start of game

Hey do you guys know that the Orioles should control the Royals' running game?

now i do

man, that was a fat pitch that Escobar clobbered

shades of Al Weis

Aïe aïe aïe

good ab by gordon

would you like some pixie dust on your crabcakes?

Gordon should be batting higher than 6th, dontcha think

Another great catch by the Royals outfield.

but no SHUTDOWN INNING

Jones looked just slightly off-balance before he made that throw, prob the difference

One run allowed in four innings, but no -- no SHUTDOWN INNINGS yet.

Who lead the league in SHUTDOWN INNINGS?

Crucial statistic

lol Gordon picked off

Wow, Showalter removed his starter in the fifth inning to try and prevent a 4-1 game from becoming a 5-1 game. /playoffmanaging

this looks like a great game, sad i missed the first half of it.

The cool thing with this series is both teams have great bullpens. There was always a team with an iffy bullpen in the division series.

not miami

winning yr division is for suckers

I will lol if St. Louis makes the series and possibly loses bc wainwright grooved a pitch in the AS Game to cap'n jetes.

not miami

otm tho

not boston

Had to go somewhere, so only caught an inning mid-game. Empathy to the Orioles fans on here--KC did it to the Jays in '85, and I still vividly remember what a punch in the gut that felt like.

not montreal

man why would i post that garbage of course a reconstituted montreal.

oh fuck i forgot to do it

happy happy

joy joy

dag

Now watch these jokers get swept.

Shades of the 2007 Rockies?

if that happens... who was Colorado's bullpen?

list 1985 funfacts Fox will put on infographics

Rockies bullpen was Brian Fuentes, Manny Corpas and Jeremy Affeldt

should someone start the 2014 World Series: Kansas City Royals vs who cares thread?

more like who cares vs who cares amirite?

Now watch these jokers get swept.

Wouldn't be shocked--they're kind of living on borrowed time. If they win, though, I think it'll be good for the analysis industry. The last few years, new kinds of conventional wisdom have been replacing old kinds of conventional wisdom. The Royals seemingly make no sense according to some of the new kinds. People will try to figure out if them winning means anything. It almost certainly doesn't--they got hot at just the right time, instead of, say, the Jays getting hot in May; you just need to stay hot for a 15-20 game window--but people will try anyway. And they'll find out that they don't just great defense in the outfield, it may be historically great. Or the thing that Fleming wrote about, the possible value of being a contact team in the post-season. All of that is good to know.

this was a fun game, the royals and the orioles are both fun teams

or maybe it's just the fact that joe buck wasn't weighing everything down with his leaden foghorn bray

I've pretty much explained it to a buddy that same way, every decent team will go on a 15-5 run (or whatever) at some point, the Royals are just doing it in September.

24 hours later, i grudgingly have to concede that the royals are a fun team to watch and right-thinking people should root for them. i think i just feel a little morose that the world forgot that there were TWO long-suffering fanbases in this alcs, and the fans in kansas city were the ones who had a pennant MORE recently.

but the O's hadn't been as pitiful in the interim.

Andrew (Raleigh )
Did you see the Time article on the Royals (or their perceived style of play) being the future of baseball? Not every postseason result has to mean something. Sometimes teams just win. People should enjoy the ride and stop trying to create false narratives.

Klaw (1:09 PM)
I didn't, and that's pretty silly. I do think you'll see two changes in player valuation, though. Players who make more contact will see an increase in value after years of teams just not caring at all about hitter strikeout rates, and I think the recent shift toward assembling bullpens of power arms to try to shorten games to 6 innings will accelerate.

Klaw (1:09 PM)
I also think or hope that teams notice that the Giants have a huge advantage from having two long men in their pen.

On this point, I had forgotten that when I went to the Baseball Prospectus event at Kauffmann two summers ago, our major in-stadium event was a session with... the Royals analytics department! Ivy Leaguers and other smart young guys.

Andrew (Raleigh )
The Royals are an organization that heavily utilizes analytics, right? I don't understand the narrative that they are "anti-saber".

Klaw (1:11 PM)
Yes, they are. And the idea of assembling a high-contact lineup with speed isn't anti-saber, nor is the idea of preventing runs by playing great defense (especially range) and striking the last nine hitters out every night.

Eh, every time there's a surprise team in the playoffs people predict that we'll see a whole slate of copycat teams, and it never happens. Every team is different. The idea of winning in the postseason with defense and power pitching is hardly new either -- wasn't that 2/3rds of BP's (now discredited) secret sauce?

yes, starter strikeout rates, closer win value, and fielding

@McCulloughStar
Ned Yost was up this morning by 6 a.m. He was on the phone with his good friend Jeff Foxworthy.

Jeff Sullivan tells us how good Lorenzo Cain has been:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/welcome-to-stardom-lorenzo-cain/

tell me more of this discredited secret sauce!

for best results, google "secret sauce nate silver"

http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t427/sayhey1/alex_zps43531d82.jpg

One, two princes kneel before you
That's what I said now
Princes, princes who adore you
Just go ahead now

every decent team will go on a 15-5 run (or whatever) at some point, the Royals are just doing it in September.

They've won 24 games more than they've lost so far this season, a .570 winning percentage equating to 92-93 wins in a 162 game season (5% of which is postseason against good teams). Not inclined to view that as just decent.

is he trying to convey the length of his dick

I'm hoping Guthrie and Vargas can give Jeff's Suppan and Weaver a run for the money as the shittiest duo of pitchers to headline a world series team.

...

I just looked at the stats and my god Weaver and Suppan were awful. 5ish K/9 and 2.5-3 BB/9 between the two of them. At least Vargas and Guthrie are about 6:2 K:BB/9

But those are the 3 and 4 guys and Duffy isn't pitching. I don't think you have to go that far back for something comparable. 2009 Yankees went with three man rotation or it would have been Pettite and Joba Chamberlain. 2009 Phillies had Pedro and Hamels.

2008 Rays - Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine

One more: Phillies (who won) same year - Moyer and Blanton.

They've won 24 games more than they've lost so far this

ah, combining reg & PS records, haven't seen that trick since the '98 Yankees

in the PS, the top 3 relievers can and do pitch way more (proportionally) than they did in the 162. They call it "postseason" cuz it's different in many ways.

The most immediately apparent way would be that it's actually harder to win.

Five of those 8 wins were some of the most God-kissed lucky weirdness I've ever seen.

those count

morbs as a fan of the mets i'm sure you're familiar with such types of timely wins!

I am and won't deny it. But really, KC is no better than the #5 of the 10 PS teams, i believe.

(however, the Mets were clearly the best team in baseball in '86 and likely the best in the NL in 2000)

Have we had two wild cards in the series before?

2002 was the first time.

Ishikawa first national league player to finish the NLCS with a home run.

woops wrong thead.

William (Spokane): What is your assessment of Norichika Aoki's defense?

Andy McCullough (KC Star beat writer): Humorous but effective. I once asked Lorenzo Cain to sum up Aoki's routes in one word. "Wow," he said. Then he started laughing.