2015 gold glove/silver slugger/BBWAA/etc. awards thread

let's get started w/ the least of all, le gold gloves

AL -

P - buehrle/sonny gray/keuchel
C - perez/martin/jason castro
1B: hosmer/napoli/teixeira
2B: altuve/dozier/kinsler
3B: beltre/machado/longoria
SS: xander/alcides/gregorious
LF: cespedes (k lol)/gardner/gordon
CF: kiermaier/trout/pillar
RF: JD martinez/calhoun/reddick

NL -

P: arrieta/cole/greinke
C: yadi/posey/wilson ramos
1B: belt/goldschmidt/a-gon
2B: dee gordon/lemahieu/phillips
3B: arenado/duffy/frazier
SS: crawford/hechavarria/simmons
LF: marte/jupton/yelich
CF: hamilton/cutch/pollock
RF: granderson/harper/heyward

on the day he leaves the Jays:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb-news/4659623-alex-anthopoulos-executive-of-year-blue-jays-sporting-news

Nice to see Pillar win. I wasn't sure if the outfielders went strictly by left/center/right, in which case he would have lost to Kiermaier.

nobody's won anything; these are "finalists"

ya. Pillar is toast.

Looked at it too quickly earlier, saw Pillar's name. Definitely not winning.

Fielding Bible

P – Dallas Keuchel
C – Buster Posey
1B – Paul Goldschmidt
2B – Ian Kinsler
SS – Andrelton Simmons
3B – Nolan Arenado
LF – Starling Marte
CF – Kevin Kiermaier
RF – Jason Heyward
Multi-position – Ender Inciarte

http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

Neyer:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/mlb-fielding-awards-fielding-bible-gold-glove-buster-posey-bill-james-110315

comeback players

Prince Fielder
Matt Harvey

huh. was expecting ARod, but i guess i shouldn't be surprised.

Kinsler? Huh.

^^^my very thought

Long suffering Giants fans, the wait is over: Crawford got the GG. The first since 2006 (I think). It's been really tough.

the "finalist" bullshit is in full swing (there are not two votes; they just release the 3 top finishers a week early, and you can usually guess the order).

‏@officialBBWAA
AL MVP, top 3 (alphabetically): Lorenzo Cain, Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout. Winner announced Nov. 19.

here's the full sneak list

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2015/11/10/9707608/mlb-awards-2015-finalists-bryce-harper-mike-trout-josh-donaldson

Wilson Defensive Players of the Year:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/2015-wilson-defensive-player-of-the-year-awards-announced-on-mlb-network-300177114.html

"...A formula that combines traditional defensive stats with advanced metrics, as well as the data logged by the baseball experts working for the scouting service Inside Edge." Based on the widespread accolades for Kiermaier, I suspect Pillar won for his highlight reel more than anything else, but it's still nice to see him get some recognition--he really was something to watch this year.

I hate that "finalist" bullshit so much.

so no Yoni in NLMVP means rational heads prevailed or he was actually, like, 4th...?

i haven't seen Kiermaier play very much, but according to fangraphs he made nine 100 mph throws from the outfield to home this year, which is just O_O

i guess runners don't stop testing centerfielders like they do LF & RF?

@JohnDreker
Andrew McCutchen becomes the first #Pirates player to win four Silver Slugger awards. Bonds, Bonilla and Rick Rhoden won thrice

a rick rhoden sighting

a well-deserved silver slugger for X :]

very happy for Brandon Crawford, didn't think he would win. glad he did. Giants infield is set for a very long time, now for some pitching.

now i look around and see Crawford, Posey, Bumgarner earn Silver Slugger awards. very nice though Bumgarner was a lock.

I used to link to High Heat Stats regularly, but I kind of drifted away from it as they posted more and more obsessively about their "Circle of Greats." Anyway, an MVP vote for Trout:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2015/11/2015-high-heat-stats-award-results/#more-28129

Bryant unanimously; Correa (17/124) over Lindor (13/109) in a close vote.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157430944/bbwaa-rookies-of-the-year-unveiled

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUCupAxUYAAYudQ.jpg

The god Joe Maddon

Keuchel (22/186) by a pretty good margin over Price (8/143)--seems about right.

1. Arrieta-17/169
2. Greinke-10/147
3. Kershaw-3/101

So vote-splitting didn't matter--17 firsts and 13 seconds (presumably) would still beat 13 firsts and 17 seconds (presumably). Two voters didn't have Kershaw in the Top 3.

This has to be the most facial hair Cy Young winners tandem at least since La Marr Hoyt won the award in '83.

arrieta i can understand, but greinke getting that much more support than kershaw makes no sense to me

kershaw outpeformed greinke in every way, but got babip'd.

Was Greinke's ERA the lowest ever by a pitcher who didn't win the Cy Young?

In 1985 John Tudor had a sub-2.00 ERA and lost to Doc Gooden, who had a better ERA. That's the closest comparison, I think (and Gooden was clearly better that year).

I'm also wondering whether Corey Kluber had the worst ever winning percentage of anyone receiving Cy Young votes (he was 9-16 and finished 9th in the voting).

Went immediately to Nolan Ryan 1987, when he led the NL in ERA while going 8-16. He tied for 5th in Cy voting, so he beats Kluber.

Figured '68 would turn up the answer: Tiant had an ERA of 1.61 and lost (unanimously) to McLain. Adjusted, Greinke beats him by quite a bit (225-186).

Facial hair: John Denny and his moustache pairs with Hoyt, so I think you're right. Flanagan and Sutter in '79, too.

Scrolled through all the Cy winners, and Tiant is basically the correct answer for starters. The literal correct answers are a couple of in-season trade partial seasons: Doyle Alexander in '87 and Randy Johnson in '98.

Not surprisingly, a bunch of sub-1.50 non-winning reliever years, including four under 1.00: Gossage, Eckersley, Rodney, and Wade Davis.

I think Kershaw got semi-robbed, otoh Arrieta cuts such a fine figure

you will be able to tell again by next July who is the best of these 3

I mentally excluded relievers. Can't believe I forgot about Ryan in '87 though. Pitchers who switched teams in mid-season are in a category of their own. You can add CC Sabathia in 2008 to the list too (5th in CY, 6th in MVP, 1.65 ERA in 17 NL starts).

Assuming Rizzo finishes fourth in MVP voting--safe assumption?--has any team had a better harmonic mean in awards voting than the Cubs' 1/1/1/4?

Cubs' Harmonic mean = 4 / 1/1 + 1/1 + 1/1 + 1/4
= 4 / 3.25
= 1.23

Yes, I had to look up how to calculate harmonic mean.

i immediately thought of the '88 L.A. Dodgers, and it looks like i was right:

Kirk Gibson won MVP, Orel Hershiser won the CY, Lasorda won Manager, and Tim Belcher finished third in the ROY race behind Chris Sabo and Mark Grace.

Assuming Rizzo finishes fourth in MVP voting--safe assumption?--has any team had a better harmonic mean in awards voting than the Cubs' 1/1/1/4?

Cubs' Harmonic mean = 4 / 1/1 + 1/1 + 1/1 + 1/4
= 4 / 3.25
= 1.23

Yes, I had to look up how to calculate harmonic mean.

― clemenza, Thursday, November 19, 2015 4:03 PM (21 minutes ago)

think a regular mean would have sufficed lol

i wasn't expecting to be reminded of chris sabo today

not that maddon didn't necessarily deserve it, but most managers would probably do well given all that (plus the guy with a new $155m contract who was supposed to be the ace, infusions of schwarbness, etc)

otoh, one might otherwise have to give it to matheny so

Or Tim Belcher...pitched eight shutouts in '89. No one's had more than six since.

Christopher Kamka @ckamka
If Trout & Harper both win MVP, it will be first time both MVPs were under 25 years old since 1927 - Paul Waner & Lou Gehrig.

that was pre-BWAA

Kinda surprised at the voting difference between Trout and Donaldson, voters really care about the playoffs, as in, it's the biggest criteria.

Then how did Harper win?

AL result is at least 60% Trout fatigue, bored with the same guy being the best player year after year.

Harper, and the other two nominees were well above their class, and none of them made the playoffs.

harper won because there was absolutely no way around it. he had no competition from anyone on the playoff teams. no one's sick of trout you goon

truth bomb on BP podcast: if Arrieta had had his first half second and second half first, he doesn't win.

probably but he's a deserving winner imo

the three NL cys were so close that i don't mind narrative playing a role

Cespedes finished 13th in nl mvp

outpointed Granderson 24-4, smdh

im a jays fan but come on donaldson over trout is a joke

aj pollock got jobbed

and who the fuck gave trevor rosenthal a vote for NL MVP

Ken Rosenthal seems to buy my Troutfatigue theory

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/mike-trout-al-mvp-vote-josh-donaldson-ken-rosenthal-111915

it's a combination of that and the fact that the jays made the playoffs, certainly. not that donaldson was a slouch or anything, it's nothing like those trout-cabrera years

wouldn't be surprised if some of the older voters were swayed by Donaldson's production numbers too.

trout's now 32nd all time in MVP shares btw, and kershaw is 7th in cy young shares!

right i figured that was obvious xp

like the rest of that angels team was a dumpster fire. the fact that they were one game from the playoffs says a lot about trout's value

donaldson over trout is a joke

There are lots of metrics that point to Trout, and a few that point to Donaldson. But I can't see any measure whereby this was a joke pick on the order of Justin Morneau or Don Baylor. It was legitimately close. I'd have to check, but my guess is that, measured by WAR, Donaldson had one of the dozen or so greatest post-war seasons by a third baseman.

Rosenthal says as much: "Twice I typed in Donaldson’s name in the top spot, only to delete it and enter Trout’s name instead. Yes, I was that torn, viewing both choices as legitimate." I think Trout did overtake Donaldson during the last couple of weeks, and I think it does matter that Donaldson didn't do a whole lot during the second half of September (one dramatic walk-off and not much else). But there was a point just prior to that where it was just as clear that Donaldson was the best choice. I think that idea was cemented in some voters' minds, and they didn't revisit their choice later on.

ya, not sure i'm down with "joke" either. not sure i would have even picked Trout myself.

maybe joke is a little strong, I just feel like trout was better than donaldson and that this is strongly backed by the stats

eg ops, ops+, war

Donaldson from Sept. 15 forward: .231/.367/.415
Trout from Sept. 15 forward: .338/.447/.721

When your time is fighting for a playoff spot and/or first place, I think that definitely needs to be part of the overall picture. Just like I thought it did during the first Trout/Cabrera 1-2, when Trout advocates didn't seem to think such things mattered.

"team"

xp. the gist of that seems to be "he didn't perform as well but there are extenuating circumstances" which I find a line of thinking/evaluating which is quite wooly.

No, no extenuating circumstances at all; Donaldson simply didn't hit that well down the stretch, and Trout hit very well. And if I had had a vote, as much as I wanted Donaldson to win, I probably would have had to swallow hard and vote for Trout--that last half of September would have cost him the award with me. I'm just making two points:

1) It was close enough that that, in my eyes, would have tipped the scales in Trout's direction;
2) I'm trying to be consistent; I thought it mattered in 2012 when Cabrera had a much better finish than Trout, and I think it mattered in 2015.

Donaldson from Sept. 15 forward: .231/.367/.415
Trout from Sept. 15 forward: .338/.447/.721

When your time is fighting for a playoff spot and/or first place, I think that definitely needs to be part of the overall picture. Just like I thought it did during the first Trout/Cabrera 1-2, when Trout advocates didn't seem to think such things mattered.

― clemenza, Friday, November 20, 2015 3:50 PM (18 minutes ago)

the problem with this kind of thinking is that you can just keep moving the goalposts. trout had a better last couple of weeks, but donaldson had a better august. hairs are being split pretty thinly at this point. the award recognizes performance over the whole season

Agreed, but I still believe that the concept of leverage should apply at the seasonal level much like it's applied at the game level; performance in September should be given a little more weight than performance in April (even though, yes, I realize a win is a win is a win in the standings). We've argued this before; I think there's room for disagreement.

(The only reason I chose mid-September rather than the entire month of September was because I watched Donaldson every day and had a pretty good idea of when he started to tail off.)

eg ops, ops+, war

For what it's worth, I'd be wary of OPS/OPS+. I use them all the time, just out of convenience, but they're not as good as James' RC/27 or Allen Barra's SLOB. Slugging and on-base should be multiplied, not added; a player with a .400 OBP/.400 slugging is more valuable than a guy with a .350 OBP/.450 slugging (and definitely more valuable than .300 OBP/.500 slugging). James said he just gave up that fight--everyone uses OPS, so he does too.

In terms of Donaldson/Trout, that's another advantage to Trout.

Is there a rationale for multiplying the numbers other than it lowering the total number for the player with the lower OBP? Does it do this accurately?

the most useful figure (for measuring value provided purely from batting) is actually fangraphs' wRC+, which weights each input (walk, single, double, etc) according to its empirically-determined value for producing runs. theoretically this is preferable to a method like OPS, where a double is worth twice as much as a single, and so on. OPS+ is just a reflection of a player's OPS that has been adjusted for park and league factors, standardized such that an average hitter is 100

that said, the practical difference between OPS+ and wRC+ is negligible -- i don't think i've ever seen a hitter have a difference of more than 5 points between his OPS+ and wRC+

I know I've read an explanation from James, but I don't know where. I think the basic idea is grounded in the value of not making outs; OBP reflects that, slugging doesn't. There's more than that--i.e., getting runners on and advancing them are connected, and therefore shouldn't be added like isolated events--but I think not-making-outs is the main idea.

as i said, each event has, through a bunch of research, been tied to a specific run value. it turns out that a double is not worth twice as much than a single, a home run is not worth twice as much as a double, etc. and yes, simply not getting out is marginally more important than hitting for power

Cabrera over Trout WAS a joke

Alderson, Baseball America Exec of the Year

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/major-league-executive-year-sandy-alderson/