2016 MLB awards thread

speculation, predictions, pipe dreams

AL MVP - trout or gtfo
AL cy young - no one really deserves this. an argument could even be made for britton but i'm not sure i'd go that far
AL ROY - gary sanchez, with apologies to fulmer

NL MVP - bryant
NL cy young - syndergaard barely over scherzer. (seems like everyone's forgotten about thor, tho admittedly he cooled off a bit down the stretch.) there are about 10 pitchers who are more deserving of the CYA than any AL pitcher
NL ROY - corey seager

afaik seems AL Cy is Kluber followed by Verlander, Tanaka, Sale

i can't make total sense of the assorted NL pitching profiles, but Scherzer, Thor, Cueto, Jose, Kershaw seem to be at top

i think porcello is in the mix in the AL cy too

i don't think i could ever vote for a closer for cy young, BUT...britton laps the field in the AL for WPA, fyi

trout, verlander, fulmer, tito

bryant, scherzer, seager, snitker

i really have no idea who could win either league's Cy Young, no one has narrative momentum other than maybe Verlander. i feel like Porcello and Scherzer might win though.

I don't think there are any shoo-ins for any of the awards this year.

AL - Trout, Porcello, Fulmer, Banister.

Ortiz is definitely going to pick up a handful of first place mvp votes, that'll siphon off some of Betts' support and allow Trout to squeak out the win (which he obviously deserves).

NL - Bryant, Scherzer, Seager, Maddon.

seager will almost certainly win NL ROY unanimously

Yeah, he's a shoo-in I guess. Bryant should win easily too, but I wouldn't be shocked if he splits votes with Rizzo and misses out.

BTW I was trying to predict who will win, not who I want to win.

Tyler Kepner of NYT had Dull of Oakland third in his AL ROY choices. I'd never heard of him.

I feel like, if a closer should ever win, Britton should win. And it does kind of seem like a consensus that closers are allowed to win.

he did pitch in the american league this year, so he's allowed to win

AL MVP - Trout--but if Betts wins, that's fine, they're close.

AL Cy - ERA, IP, K, WHIP, and K/BB to Verlander, ERA+ and FIP to Kluber--so Kluber wins the sabermetric vote...High-quality starts (7+/2-): Verlander, 17/34; Kluber, 13/32...Avg. Game Score: Verlander, 61.6; Kluber, 60.4. Coin flip--I'm a bigger Verlander fan.

NL MVP - Bryant

NL Cy - Scherzer...another close one.

AL MVP - Trout
AL CY - Corey Klubs
AL Rookie - Fulmer

NL MVP - Bryant (just looked at his numbers for the first time in 2 months, jesus)
NL CY - Scherzer
NL Rookie - Corey Seager

announced finalists, so far

CY YOUNG AWARD
American League
Corey Kluber, Indians
Rick Porcello, Red Sox
Justin Verlander, Tigers

National League
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Jon Lester, Cubs
Max Scherzer, Nationals

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
American League
Tyler Naquin, Indians
Gary Sanchez, Yankees
Michael Fulmer, Tigers

National League
Kenta Maeda, Dodgers
Trea Turner, Nationals
Corey Seager, Dodgers

MANAGER OF THE YEAR
American League
Jeff Banister, Rangers
Terry Francona, Indians
Buck Showalter, Orioles

National League
Dusty Baker, Nationals
Joe Maddon, Cubs
Dave Roberts, Dodgers

GOLD GLOVE (career Gold Gloves in parentheses)
American League

Catcher
James McCann, Tigers (0)
Carlos Perez, Angels (0)
Salvador Perez, Royals (3)

First Base
Chris Davis, Orioles (0)
Eric Hosmer, Royals (3)
Mitch Moreland, Rangers (0)

Second Base
Robinson Cano, Mariners (2)
Ian Kinsler, Tigers (0)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (4)

Shortstop
Jose Iglesias, Tigers (0)
Francisco Lindor, Indians (0)
Andrelton Simmons, Angels (2)

Third Base
Adrian Beltre, Rangers (4)
Manny Machado, Orioles (2)
Kyle Seager, Mariners (1)

Left Field
Brett Gardner, Yankees (0)
Alex Gordon, Royals (4)
Colby Rasmus, Astros (0)

Center Field
Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox (0)
Kevin Kiermaier, Rays (1)
Kevin Pillar, Blue Jays (0)

Right Field
Mookie Betts, Red Sox (0)
Adam Eaton, White Sox (0)
George Springer, Astros (0)

Pitcher
R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays (1)
Dallas Keuchel, Astros (2)
Justin Verlander, Tigers (0)

National League

Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers/Rangers (0)
Yadier Molina, Cardinals (8)
Buster Posey, Giants (0)

First Base
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (2)
Wil Myers, Padres (0)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (0)

Second Base
DJ LeMahieu, Rockies (1)
Joe Panik, Giants (0)
Jean Segura, Diamondbacks (0)

Shortstop
Brandon Crawford, Giants (1)
Freddy Galvis, Phillies (0)
Addison Russell, Cubs (0)

Third Base
Nolan Arenado, Rockies (3)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals (0)
Justin Turner, Dodgers (0)

Left Field
Adam Duvall, Reds (0)
Starling Marte, Pirates (1)
Christian Yelich, Marlins (1)

Center Field
Billy Hamilton, Reds (0)
Odubel Herrera, Phillies (0)
Ender Inciarte, Braves (0)

Right Field
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (3)
Jason Heyward, Cubs (3)
Nick Markakis, Braves (2)

Pitcher
Jake Arrieta, Cubs (0)
Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (2)
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (2)

from the hot stove thread

Noah Syndergaard not nominated for NL Cy Young is bullshit.

― Van Horn Street, Monday, November 7, 2016 6:41 PM

indeed.

FIP, xFIP
Syndergaard: 2.29, 2.67
Hendricks: 3.20, 3.59
Scherzer: 3.24, 3.37
Lester: 3.41, 3.47

the only NL starters with a FIP under 3 were Syndergaard, Jose Fernandez, and Cueto.

and Kershaw (1.80 o_O) if you lower the minimum innings

he was nominated, he didn't get enough votes

all theyre doing is listing the top 3 finishers, the balloting is done

Congrats Scherzer, what a group to be in.

Thing I just read said he's the sixth to win for both leagues, but didn't name the other five. I can think of three, then get stuck: Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Halladay.

Not Fergie. (Thought he won the year he won 25 for the Rangers.) The other three, duh.

Porcello?!

Kate Upton is displeased with the result.

Verlander 2nd (more 1st-place votes), Kluber third. Sounds like an obvious case of old-stat guy edging out sabermetric vote-splitting.

looks like they avoided V completely in favour of Brittan?!

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2006/07/22/dombrowski.jpg

Verlander 2nd (more 1st-place votes), Kluber third. Sounds like an obvious case of old-stat guy edging out sabermetric vote-splitting.

depends on which metrics you're using. by fangraph WAR, which leans more heavily on FIP to reward what "should" have happened given things completely within the pitcher's control (Ks, walks, HRs), porcello was actually tied with verlander and sale for the AL lead in WAR (5.2). by baseball-reference WAR, which leans more heavily on the actual results on the field, porcello was 5th with 5.0 bWAR, far behind verlander (6.4) and kluber (6.2).

You're right, not the clear split I thought.

Rick Porcello, Red Sox (1st-8, 2nd-18, 3rd-2, 4th-1, 5th-1; 137 points)
Jason Verlander, Tigers (1st-14, 2nd-2, 3rd-5, 4th-4, 5th-3; 132 points)
Corey Kluber, Indians (1st-3, 2nd-6, 3rd-12, 4th-8, 5th-1; 98 points)
Zach Britton, Orioles (1st-5, 2nd-3, 3rd-2, 4th-5, 5th-9; 72 points)

(Has a winner ever had six fewer 1st-place votes than the runner-up?)

Eighteen of the 22 people who didn't put Porcello first had him second. That means that of the 17 first-place votes for Verlander and Kluber, at least 13 of them put Porcello second over whichever of Verlander or Kluber they didn't vote for, and theoretically all 17 could have done that.

That's weird. I would have guessed all 17 Verlander/Kluber 1st-place ballots would have had Kluber/Verlander 2nd.

rWAR otm

You weren't kidding about Kate Upton...

@ScottLauber
Porcello on reax of Verlander bro, fiancee Kate Upton: "I honestly don't care." Eager to resume drinking "some really good bottles of wine"

same

no one deserved it this year tbh

I thought any one of the top 3 would be a fine Cy Young winner in a normal year. Those season's like Verlander's MVP, or Kershaw's, or last year's NL top 3, those are still the exception, no?

Stunned at JV's difference between rWAR and fWAR ( I'm more inclined to follow fWAR if only because the website is easier to use, ahem)

even this year in the NL there are at least 4 or 5 guys who would easily be the top pitcher in the AL if they switched leagues xp

xxpost Kluber's 2014 season was one of the best this decade, if not the best in the AL. Felix was considered to be not too far behind. Even last year you had four better fWAR performances better than the 2016's leader this year (Porcello) so yeah, in the AL, it has been 'less deserving' (I blame Price and Sale).

Verlander and Kluber led both leagues in bWAR (although, yes, 7 of the next 8 were from the NL).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016-pitching-leaders.shtml

ah, yeah i tend to use fWAR for pitching, it's much more intuitive for me

I like the idea of combining them--I can see the arguments for both--which gives you these guys over 10.0:

1. Fernandez - 12.5

2. Verlander - 11.8 / Scherzer - 11.8 / Syndergaard - 11.8

5. Kluber - 11.6

6. Cueto - 11.1

7. Porcello - 10.2

8. Sale - 10.1

9. Tanaka - 10.0

You can add Kershaw at #2 (12.1) - he wasn't on one of the leaders lists because of IP, so I missed him.

Rick Porcello, Red Sox (1st-8, 2nd-18, 3rd-2, 4th-1, 5th-1; 137 points)
Jason Verlander, Tigers (1st-14, 2nd-2, 3rd-5, 4th-4, 5th-3; 132 points)

Yeah, I can't recall such a strange result. I think one-third of the voters had written off Verlander as a top pitcher after two sub par years (and not a great first half in 2016) and didn't even notice that he was having a great year.

maybe they thought he was going to get enough votes with others and wanted to throw some love to their pet-favs?

either way, Kate Upton losing her shit on twitter has been a sight to behold.

Kluber seemed to be the favorite down the stretch.

disappointed that kate upton didn't start ranting about xFIP and curveball RPM etc

great that ppl have never given less of a shit about these than now

No vote-splitting--Trout cleaned up.

woo-hoo!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iUahRdeHJTdPyI3qPU_k4_53i0zgYlVENVV_He7_a14/pubhtml#

one guy put cabrera in front of trout, for old time's sake

good job john hickey

i'm startled

Was a little surprised there weren't any Red Sox after Betts and Ortiz to show up down-ballot--Pedroia, at least.

Top four AL MVP matched the top four bWAR finishers, and the vote spread also looks similar to the bWAR spread.

Ortiz with a 1st place vote :|

@DetroitTigersPR
Per @EliasSports, Cabrera is the 4th player to receive a MVP vote in 14 straight seasons, joining Hank Aaron, Yogi Berra and Barry Bonds.

that's odd, because he's only played 14 seasons. so he received a MVP vote for his 2003 rookie season (87 games played, .268/.325/.468, 106 wRC+)?

he's amazing, though. if his defense wasn't awful he would have had a better chance of catching up with Pujols, at least by fWAR. even now, he might have a chance. he trails him by 23 right now (68 to 91), but it's not hard to imagine a scenario where pujols five more years (!!!!?!?!?) of -1.0 to 1.0 level seasons while cabrera cranks out another handful of 3-4 WAR seasons.

taking sides: Ryan Howard in 2015-16 or your idea of how Pujols will be doing in 2020-21

he got one 8th place vote for some reason

If Trout were to win the MVP unanimously next year, he'd be tied with Schmidt for 11th on the all-time MVP-share list; a unanimous Cy Young for Kershaw would move him to third on the Cy list.

BP podcast pointed out that this pool of 30 writers on this award was relatively analytics- and Trout-friendly

Conceding James has a heavy bias here, I think this is an excellent breakdown of why Verlander's big bWAR advantage over Porcello is illusory.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/porlander_and_vercello/

sean forman's response (to pos, not james): https://twitter.com/sean_forman/status/800775742724325376

So James is saying Verlander would have given up just as many hits on balls in play even with a great defense behind him? If that's true, what does it mean to say that the Tigers were 50 runs worse than average on defense? It means they should have given up more hits than the average defense, which translates into more runs, unless they so happened to be not as bad when Verlander pitched. I think this is Forman's point ...?

more on various WARs: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18114272/miller-going-war-mystery-robbie-ray

that's a fantastic article

yes

Rick Porcello, Anthony Rendon Win 2016 MLB Comeback Player of the Year Awards