aaron judge needs his own thread

wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

Would much rather have Bellinger.

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

21

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

or he might be Puig.

puig was never this good!

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

#WIGS

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

30

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

roll me over romeo

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

absurd

sheesh

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

Curious if learning to beat the shift helped Moncada in 2019.

The only thing I remember at Jose Hernandez is that he was a whiff-machine. I also doubt he deserves to be in that company, or perhaps how deeply flawed BABIP is.

Jose Hernandez led the majors in strikeouts in 2001-2002 amassing an insane 373 Ks across the 2 seasons.

Remarkably his 27.3% career K/AB mark is only 148th of all-time among qualified leaders.

Tony Gwynn's gap between his career BABIP (.341) and career BA (.338) is three points!

BABIP tends to overrate contact players with speed and underrate power hitters, por ejemplo:

2001 Barry Bonds (11.9 bWAR, 12.5 fWAR)

BA: .328
BABIP: .266

i thought that was because home runs are not calculated as "balls in play" by babip, and therefore hitters who hit a higher percentage of home runs might have a lower babip

yes, HRs are not included in BABIP. Which is why BABIP is flawed as it penalizes players who hit the ball hard and far and rewards those who run out infield grounders.

4-5 today, back up to .409. And Goldschmidt hitting .349.

yes, HRs are not included in BABIP. Which is why BABIP is flawed as it penalizes players who hit the ball hard and far and rewards those who run out infield grounders.

tbf, i don't think anyone takes BABIP as a measure of skill/penalty/reward? it's merely something that is very likely to revert to each player's mean

after an extremely concerning 4 game stretch last week where he had only 2 XBH, he was 2-3 with a double and 2 walks tonight, hitting .414 with a cool .500 OBP

you could have guessed based on his batting average, but he’s striking out significantly less than he ever has. 20.4% though a little more than a quarter of the season, previous low was last year at 24.3%

Keep waiting for one of his patented slumps, but a genuine Triple Crown possibility. Right now, 60 points ahead in BA, leading by 2 in HR and 7 in RBI. In the slash Triple Crown, he's ~ +60/+70/+150.

I view this thread as having an invisible subtitle with Cody Bellinger's name...

Nothing to do with anything, but I love how Bellinger's 9-year career breaks into three distinct 3-year blocks (WAR is per/162 games):

2017-19: .278/.368/.559, 144 OPS+, 6.2 WAR
2020-22: .203/.272/.376, 76 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
2023-25: .282/.339/.473, 125 OPS+, 4.3 WAR

Future HOF'er/sub-replacement level/all-star.

Aaron Judge Needs His Own Thread (but Cody Bellinger Doesn't)

LOL

who will end with the highest career WAR (fWAR or bWAR, whatever): judge or trout?

they're both 33 years old.
judge has 55.5 fWAR but is still more than capable of cranking out 10 WAR seasons
trout has 85.7 fWAR but has only played 100+ games once since 2019

as with everything in a baseball career it just depends on injuries, but amazing that it's even possible for judge to catch up

thinking about trout’s falloff makes me too sad. the most exciting player in a long time and his 30s are going to be worse than pujols’

While he's still a good player when healthy, Trout's injury (T5 Costovertebral Dysfunction) has prevented him from being the same player he was in the 2010s.

so how many homers is this dude gonna hit at coors?

BAD NEWS: his batting average has dropped to a 30=day low
GOOD NEWS: it's .396

raffy just passed him on the RBI list RIP

As great as Judge continues to be, Devers should and likely will win player of the month, especially after his game yesterday.

To be fair, half those ribbies were off a position player. He’s been great in May agreed.

https://i.imgur.com/y2vHlq5.jpeg

another one

18th of the year. It’s still May.

nbd

(xpost) Didn't realize that about Devers' game yesterday.

He won't hit .400, but a record he may actually break:

https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-numbers-behind-historic-start-2025

Two solo HR in an 18-2 shellacking--weird.

he has 11 homers in 12 regular-season games against the dodgers (but only 14 RBI)

Totally meaningless, but I was hoping he'd have a good game today and make it to June still hitting .400 (just so he could get his name on internet lists). 0-4, .391, probably won't make it back.

absolute mammoth 470 footer to left field in the first inning today

https://i.imgur.com/kto129r.jpeg

insane he actually has a chance at getting back to .400

he’s been hovering in the .390s for like 2 weeks

if he hits .400 I will buy you all a round

if you come to NYC

tbh I'll do that even if he doesn't

(not you, calstars)

I still think it's impossible over a full season but the guy very much is built different, him and Ohtani both feel like freaks of nature

mookie where are you in NYC? was just in town last week?

fat fingers on that second question mark

carroll gardens BK! although i don't get out much

Posnanski today:

We probably should be talking a lot more about the fact that Aaron Judge is still hitting .396. I mean, yes, we all know that he’s not going to hit .400, nobody can hit .400 in today’s game, not when mortal baseball players are hitting .240 or so as a group, not when teams march out their droid armies of 100-mph fastball relievers, it’s not possible.

But what if he did? I mean ... WHAT IF HE DID?

I mean, we’re 65 games into the season now. That’s not nothing. The weather is warming up. Judge likes warm weather. Last year, he hit .409 in June and .390 in August.

WHAT ... IF ... HE ... DID?

If Aaron Judge hits .400, it will be ...

... the single greatest batting achievement in the history of baseball.

That’s right. It will be a greater achievement than Babe Ruth out-homering every other team. It will be a greater achievement than Ted Williams going 6-for-8 on the last day to secure his .400 average. It will be a greater achievement than Barry Bonds being intentionally walked 120 times in a season.

We know he won’t do it. Nobody can hit .400 ... and that’s especially true of a guy who will probably strike out 160 or more times.

BUT MY GOSH, WHAT IF HE DID?

Honestly, if he finishes .350 or higher, that'll be phenomenal. (I estimate he'd have to hit .320 the rest of the way.)

slow news day eh posnanski

Golden Sombrero with a side of GIDP. He's down to .372

it’s sombrero season

he’s in a slump, 3 for his last 24 with a ton of Ks

Ruth is miles ahead of everyone on that JAWS list but everything pre-integration deserves an asterisk. By the end of the season Judge will be 4th in WAR7 and nearly in the Musial/Aaron inner-inner circle tier. Unreal.

He does this for a few weeks every year. NYY usually goes on like a 2-12 jag lol

Maybe James' Power/Speed formula--2 x (HR x SB)/(SB +HR)--could somehow be applied to HR/Avg. to get the greatest combination ever. I don't know--those are both counting stats, here you'd be combining a counting stat with a rate stat. First two that come to mind: Ruth in '21 (59/.378) and Bonds in '02 (46/.370). Judge right now projects to 59/.372.

Williams '41: 37/.406
Mantle '56: 52/.353