2017 AL MVP

I honestly have no idea.

(might come to a conclusion by Sunday)

i want to say Judge *would* win but i actually think those 200+ K's will hurt him a bit. they'll give him ROY unanimously but i think Altuve will edge him out for MVP. probably deserved.

i thought maybe Ramirez or Lindor would have a shot but between the two of them, neither one has emerged as better in the eyes of voters so the narrative isn't there.

Kluber has been amazing but i doubt he'll get much traction.

between the pitchers, for this and the Cy, I think Sale having 300 K could be decisive -- he's only the 5th guy this century to do it (also he hasn't won the Cy before). I think the bias vs pitchers will keep MVP btwn Altuve and Judge.

yeah, it's a tossup. i'm guessing altuve will win, but for silly reasons: reluctance to give MVPs to pitchers (and splitting the vote among those that do) + people who decide that judge can be happy with his ROY for now and will have plenty of chances for MVP in the future

also a blow for the Little Guy against the toxic plague of home runs

also Judge got back into "the conversation" with a string of garbage-time HRs

i'm not sure Sale takes it despite the 300 Ks, but i think a lot depends on their final starts. if Kluber klubers again, he'll have that shiny 19-4 record and a lot of Ks as well. If Sale is mediocre he will not win, if he has another great start i still think he's just shy of Kluber (unless the latter completely falls apart.)

anyway for MVP i don't think either guy has a chance, it would have taken a season where there weren't any position players with eye-popping numbers.

I think Felix's Cy proved a lot fewer voters look at W-L, and it goes down every year.

i agree but i think there might be enough of those dudes to tip the balance if it's close (plus coupled w/Kluber's edge in a lot of categories + that Cleveland win streak, etc.)

it's maybe similar to the Arrieta/Greinke/Kershaw Cy battle in 2015.

Kluber obv is no Arrieta.

Altuve.

W-L is no impediment to Cy Youngs anymore--that started back with Greinke/Lincecum/Felix, and by now that's a closed book. But I think--observing, not endorsing--an MVP still, for now at least, requires the gaudy W-L record. Kershaw was 21-3, Verlander 24-5, all the way back to Clemens at 24-4. That'll change eventually too, but the last few votes don't suggest it has yet.

gotta be future hall of famer jose altuve

I wouldn't be surprised that Judge or Sale gets a bunch of east coast votes, but to me Altuve has had a monster season and should win it in a walk away.

judge has been every bit as good as altuve!

possibly

also, as ever, idgaf

Judge was so bad in July and August that it's kind of hard to pick him. Altuve is far and away the best player at his position and it would be super fun for him to get the award.

I kinda think it should still be trout, tbh

i really don't see how trout has a case tbh, it was one thing when his numbers were still so much better than everyone else's, but he's cooled off. and i'm definitely a trout partisan

don't really get penalizing judge for being hot and cold, what does that really matter? his overall production is what it is

yeah i don't get how the patterns of your value distribution across the season matters much.

The #Angels are getting 13 wins from Trout and Simmons on their way to a .500 season. Yeesh.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) September 27, 2017

Albert's gonna cancel out 2 of those wins all by his lonesome. but hey 100 RBIs #soclutch

How high will Buxton finish--7th or 8th?

i can't really see it. he's a rookie who struggled at the plate for half the season, and his numbers aren't remotely top-10 worthy. doubt the twins backing into the playoffs is going to matter much

he was the 4th best CF in the american league by fWAR

that gets you 7th or 8th place in MVP voting?

i mean he had a nice season, i don't think he's getting many MVP votes tho

buxton has a 92 wrc+

i don't care how great his defense is, there aren't too many mvp votes for guys who hit below league average

xposts
oh, no way. i was saying to make the point that that he wasn't even top tier center fielder this year, let alone a serious MVP candidate.

if he can keep his second-hitting ways up for a full season, though, he'll be a contender for sure

second half-hitting ways (137 wRC+), i meant.

words and sentence fragments are beginning to disintegrate for me before i can get them down

200 hits for altuve

You're right about Buxton, hadn't looked at him that closely. Just figured they'd land a Twin in the Top 10, but I guess not.

Dozier has a better analytics case for a top-10 vote

That's what happens when you just glance at a WAR leaderboard--didn't realize how relatively tepid Buxton's offensive numbers are. He's not even that much better than Pillar; walks and homers a little more frequently, but Pillar's out-doubled him 37-14. (Buxton has more triples 6-1.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-has-been-the-least-clutch-player-on-record/

i still struggle with this argument -- if awards are about "rewarding history", then why not just go by W/L and ERA for cy young? awards should reward the individual who performed the best imo

because those aren't very good measures of one's contributions to history?

i guess i disagree that clutch performance -- which, most likely, is literally pure noise and randomness -- is a "good measure" of contribution

It's interesting that so many 21st century players are on the all-time un-clutch list -- possibly, as suggested, because hitters are facing better relievers than ever at the end of games. It seems to make sense on the surface ... but if so, why are there so many star players on that list? Wouldn't the non-star players struggle even more against the best relievers?

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions and factor it into my MVP vote, but it is intriguing.

why are there so many star players on that list?

a certain level of performance has to be reached before variations become noticeable. dropping from a 10 wrc+ to a 9 in clutch situations isn't as big a deal as dropping from 100 to 90.

i don't think anyone is suggesting that the mvp award be given solely for wpa, but if other things are more or less equal, why shouldn't it be a factor? it may have been random and unrepeatable and not predictive of future performance, but it *happened*

In Harper's MVP season he was the clear leader in WAR but I remember people making a possible case for Rizzo based on WPA and other "clutch" metrics. But I think in most years the differences between MVP candidates aren't very significant.

With pitchers I think there's a stronger case to be made for using strength of competition as a substitute for "clutch". A great start against a weak team (or a season worth in a weak division) shouldn't be worth as much as a great start against a strong team.

it's not so easy to glob team members together into 'good' and 'bad' teams though. should a pitcher get less credit for striking out trout because the rest of his team sucks?

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/9/28/16380196/al-nl-impossible-mvp-races-war-aaron-judge-jose-altuve-kris-bryant-giancarlo-stanton

I'm genuinely puzzled as to why more people don't look at Judge and see--or at least account for the possibility of--Ryan Howard. When you compare Howard's MVP year to Judge this year, there's not a lot of daylight.

Howard (26) - .313/.425/.659, 25 2B, 1, 3B, 58 HR, 167 OPS+, 6.1 oWAR, 199/107 K/BB, .356 BAbip
 Judge (25) - .284/.421/.622, 24 2B, 3 3B, 50 HR, 168 OPS+, 6.8 oWAR, 204/124 K/BB, .358 BAbip

That basically looks like the same season to me, at basically the same age--both got a late start. Is it that Judge is a right fielder, and therefore obviously more athletic, or is there more to it than that? If you look at Howard month-to-month in 2006, he didn't go through anything like Judge's slump in July and August (his worst OPS was .882 in April; everything else was between .987-1.312). If anything, I would think that would have been a point in Howard's favor at the time, if you'd been trying to predict his future.

Extra comma there--one triple for Howard (which I'm sure was quite a dash...).

i've been wishfully thinking about that comparison all season

of course he could turn into ryan howard. or he could turn into nelson cruz. neither has any bearing on his 2017 al mvp status

would Howard get his undeserved MVP nowadays? not so sure Utley would be denied

Howard was (even that season) an an outstandingly poor defensive player whereas Judge this year has been pretty good (which may account partially for the gap in bWAR between the two, 7.8 (thus far) to 5.2

i dunnnnnno, some believe in defensive metrics, some don't

I intentionally left defense out of it, and wasn't even thinking about the MVP--just talking about them as hitters. Having much more defensive value will certainly keep Judge in the lineup longer whenever his numbers do start to slip.

I realize the writer in the link above is making a general point with his Pierre/Dunn = Altuve/Judge analogy, but Juan Pierre hit 18 career HR in 8000+ AB; Altuve's hit 24 two seasons in a row. I like that he brought up the '88 NL MVP vote; I remember that one being really hard to call, and James writing something like Strawberry was going to be the first casualty of more detailed stats (I think he hit poorly with runners or base). Imagine Hershiser would win today.

i don't get what the ryan howard comparison is supposed to illustrate

The future, Mr. Gittes...the future. Just trying to guess what kind of a career he's going to have. I should've put that on the Judge thread--it wasn't meant to be linked to the MVP vote in any way.

ugh these movie guys

it's linked to my mvp vote fuck if i'm gonna be on the wrong side of history

that's why i vote for future hall of famer jose altuve every year

Altuve reminds me of Ryne Sandberg, except probably better hitter. Sandberg's range seemed to me to be huge playing second watching him as a kid.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

i think judge has a chance

i find in favor of Judge

Altuve's MLB stats look like Ichiro's stats from Japan. He's like an upgraded version of Ichiro (at the plate at least)!

I don't have an issue with consistency counting for something in a close MVP race. I don't care when you have your best month -- April is no different from September -- but six great months counts for a bit more than four great months and two OK ones.

or the non-Yankee tiebreaker

During the time that Correa was out--July 18 to Sept. 2--Altuve was at his best:

40 games, .384/.418/.597, 18 XBH, 7 HR

Houston was so far ahead at that point (15.5 up when Correa went down), you could say it's a moot point. In a close contest, I'd give that a little weight.

It's not his fault he played in a weak division/year with only four good teams in the entire league. I don't believe in added MVP value if your team wins by one game rather than 20.

My last sentence was ambiguous there; I meant that in a close MVP race, which this one is, I'd give Altuve a little extra credit for his excellence during Correa's absence.

Kluber 1.62 ERA from when he came back (June 1) until the end of the season - 23 starts.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

xpost to clem, OK I see your point but still don't agree!

I hereby nickname you "The Death of Narrative."

I like individual narratives as the tiebreaker in a close vote, like Stanton having a ridiculous 2nd half and chasing 60 HR. But team-based narratives are just that -- they're about the team, and shouldn't affect the voting for an individual award.

My A.L. ballot would go 1) Altuve, 2) Judge, 3) Kluber, 4) Trout, 5) Ramirez.

Altuve ephemera from the internet:

At 5'6", Altuve is the shortest player in the majors since the 5'5" Freddie Patek, who retired after the 1981 season.

And at year's end, he may well become the shortest player to win the American League Most Valuable Player Award since the New York Yankees' 5'6" Phil Rizzuto in 1950.

This year he became the first player in history to lead either league outright in hits in four consecutive seasons, according to Elias Sports Bureau. And during his seven-year career, Altuve has more multihit games (358) than oh-fers (239).

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735785-once-ignored-by-mlb-56-superstar-jose-altuve-may-now-be-its-mvp

Alexi Amarista is also 5'6"!