2017 NL MVP

I'd vote for Scherzer ahead of at least 3 of those guys. Maybe not Stanton and Rendon.

Goldschmidt, with some reservations about his first bad month; Arizona was up by 4-1/2 in the wild card on Sept. 1, so his slump hasn't been critical (and Martinez came along to pick up the slack). Like a mentronome before that.

I'm thinking that Stanton and Goldschmidt are probably the top two. I'd figure Stanton will win it but not by much. Votto I figure won't get any #1 votes but probably get a bunch of #2 or #3 on ballots.

I'd figure Blackmon and Arenado will probably lead to getting their votes split. Would not be surprised if one or both get a couple of #1 votes from a Denver homer.

Bryant will get votes, but he hasn't been as loudly good as last year. Rendon has had a break out season but I think voters that follow the Nats could just as much give votes to Scherzer.

i think bryant's a respectable choice. he's having basically an equally as productive season as last year

no idea who i'd give it to tho. maybe stanton

literally didn't notice that bryant suddenly started hitting real good again

that old timey RBI counting stat is being misleading for him this year (he didn't even get his 60th rbi til Sept 12!)

yeah bryant's numbers are maybe slightly better than last year's (fewer homers, tho). the league has kind of gone nuts around him

i don't think the world is ready for rendon, and the gap between his bWAR and fWAR isn't helping

goldy gets the 'valuable' vote; bryant and rendon are playing on stacked teams, blackmon and arenado cancel each other out, and the reds/marlins could lose without votto/stanton

figure stanton will definitely win if he gets to 60, and maybe also if not

This looks like the most competitive MVP race in a while, all these guys are awesome, two are former MVP winners and the rest are superstars in their own right. It feels like Stanton's year though.

and another former MVP (harper) who would have a case if not for injury

John Dewan's Total Runs leaders for each league:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_total_runs_leaderboard_and_the_mvp_race/

I don't know who's going to win the NL, or who deserves to. Goldschmidt's slumping, Stanton hasn't done a whole lot since the end of his HR barrage, and I'm personally not big on anyone out of Colorado (I know, adjustments--you either accept them or remain skeptical). Any of them would be okay, Rendon or Bryant too, but no one's blown past anyone else. The thing that nags at me about Scherzer is that in five out of 30 starts, he's given up 4-7 runs--dominant when on, a few poor ones mixed in. (I can't remember what Verlander's game log looked like; I know Kershaw only had one or two poor starts in his MVP year.) I think Votto might be the best choice at this point. J.D. Martinez has been phenomenal for two-plus months, but obviously he's not going to win, and shouldn't.

that's always been an interesting question to me re JDM, just at a basic technical level. how do you vote for someone who spent the year split between 2 leagues? i remember during manny's big year where he got traded to the dodgers, before WAR was the be-all stat, i thought he was having a great year possibly worthy of an MVP, but how do you vote him (he ended up 4th)

let's say a hitter earns 7 WAR as a tiger before the deadline, gets traded to the diamondbacks and earns 3 more, and no one else in either league gets over 7. does he win the NL MVP?

Some inconsistency with pitchers on that front--Doyle Alexander finished 4th in the '87 AL Cy Young for 11 starts, and Rick Sutcliffe won in '84 after arriving in June (should have been Gooden), yet Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia didn't get any votes in 1998 or 2008 for even better late-season finishes after a trade.

Johnson finished 7th and Sabathia 5th in CY voting in those years (and both picked up MVP votes too).

Votto

CC's a good one... there's an argument to be made that he was the best pitcher in the league (led in fWAR though it was really tight that year) but he was so much more dominant after the trade it's like his first half was completely thrown out the window. is that supposed to happen anyway? it's the NL MVP so whatever he did in the AL that year is moot?

that's just a bummer imo. what if it was the other way around, and he had his 1.65 ERA in cleveland and his 3.83 in milwaukee? would the guy who led the league in WAR and IP receive a single vote?

er cy, not mvp

(I know, adjustments--you either accept them or remain skeptical)

*Columbus crashed the Flat Earth Society around 1989*

Once again, I'll spell this out for you, even though I've said so numerous times; I remain skeptical of Coors Field adjustments, not all adjustments. So do many other people. But if you're convinced Charlie Blackmon is a significant step forward over the Vinny Castillas and Dante Bichettes of yesterday, great, have at it. But seriously, give your rote idiotic compulsion to respond to me a rest.

Beyond having Fangraphs bookmarked and linking to trade-rumour tweets, do you contribute anything to these threads?

(xposts) Oops--was looking at the league line for Sabathia and Johnson, rather than their totals for those years.

I'm somewhat familiar with baseball analysis of the last 25 years, you turkey

remember everyone, reduce all Rockies players' value to zero. It's E-Z!

Clemenza's Utilitarian Null Taxonomy

remember everyone, reduce all Rockies players' value to zero. It's E-Z!

Yes, that's what skepticism entails, as opposed to starry-eyed faith in whatever Fangraphs tells you--I'm saying reduce all Rockies players' value to zero. That's exactly what I'm saying.

I'm somewhat familiar with baseball analysis of the last 25 years, you turkey

Supposedly you used to do stand-up comedy, too, and I can't get my head around that, either. From all evidence here, funny internet spellings with lots of extra z's seem to be the beginning and end of your comic imagination.

possibly

also, as ever, idgaf

This, on the other hand, from the AL MVP thread the other day, is comical--the way you're forever trying to convince us you don't care about stuff you care very deeply about. It's like the movie-poll threads, where you trot out your Hamlet routine every time about how you won't be voting and then wait around for people to beg you to vote. Endlessly entertaining.

imagine how much time he's gonna have in retirement

but he was so much more dominant after the trade it's like his first half was completely thrown out the window. is that supposed to happen anyway? it's the NL MVP so whatever he did in the AL that year is moot?

He had a strange year. He had a few horrible starts in April and finished the month with a 7.88 ERA. From then on he was great -- his second *highest* monthly ERA was 2.44 in May. Even so, he did seem to find a new gear toward the end of the year (especially starting a few times on three days rest).

Obviously that first month still counts but it's not as if the move to the NL jumpstarted his season and turned him into a different pitcher. He was MVP/CY-level great in the AL that year too, minus the one bad month.

That said, the voters probably weren't thinking that way when listing him on their MVP/CY ballots (he was only getting "credit" for what he did in the NL). These cases happen rarely enough that I'm not losing sleep over them, but nobody can even decide what the regular MVP criteria are (best player? best player on a winning team?) so I don't expect clear guidelines for multi-league players either.

Lou Brock's another famous case, although he did play 2/3 of the season with the Cardinals in '64--also the same league before and after the trade. (Going to another league, like JDM, those are trickier.) Brock only finished 10th in '64 for a .348/.387/.527/146+ line with St. Louis, which suggests the writers were, consciously or otherwise, giving some weight to his mediocre start with the Cubs.

i'm going to vote for Paul Goldschmidt without looking up the numbers.

he has the Good Face, actually as do Bryant and Stanton

anthony recker for mvp

feel like we might now need a 'best hitter' award though. call it the ted. and hurry so we can give it to votto several times before he returns to his people in the great white north

"Mr. Votto, how does it feel to finally win a Ted"
"Looks like we're having a real Ted Talk here huh"
"Haha yes, but please answer the question"
"Not one of those Tedx talks, this is the real thing, a Ted Talk"

I'd almost vote Stanton just for how breathtaking his home runs have been. #59 tonight was wow.

there's the Hank Aaron Award, but isn't it purely statistical?

it's not, and Votto has won it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_Aaron_Award

Cameron:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-no-obvious-nl-mvp/

goldschmidt might slump his way out of the MVP race. .192/.268/.342 in september

Definitely. I thought he was the perfect choice a few weeks ago--solid numbers old and new (headed for an 8-WAR season, maybe), team leader, underrated, surprise contender--then he checked out.

i think the top five will be something like:

Stanton
Goldschmidt
Blackmon
Votto
Bryant

maybe not in that exact order, but I suspect Stanton comes out on top.

Arenado's defensive dazzle and RBI total might put him over Blackmon, deservedly or not

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/charlie-blackmon-would-be-a-deserving-mvp/

i have no idea who should win but i think stanton will win

due to stat-nerd vote splitting

you mean like the guys who run baseball

are you saying i'm wrong?

i'm saying that's a bad adjective

"stat nerds" like HRs, hence Stanton

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

My personal choice would be Rendon because he does everything beautifully. It seems they are all pretty similar statistically; so for me, it comes down to which I've had the most pleasure watching and in order it would be: Rendon, Votto and Stanton.

Stanton couldn't get 60, still very awesome.

"Oct. 1, 2017, right behind home plate--I was there. It was the hardest-hit single of the Statcast era...at the time, anyway, it's not anymore...point is, is was very exciting--the ball just rocketed off Stanton's bat."

I just went to cast a (just slightly ambivalent) vote for him, but I guess I voted for Goldschmidt when the thread first went up. So when the final results are posted, deduct one from him and add one to Stanton's column. Votto won't win, but if he does, great.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

None of you deserve Rendon.

Stanton stopped at 59, so it's Arenado's for the taking!

When you include pitchers, Goldschmidt is no longer in the NL top 10 by either version of WAR.