My Favorite Wife: The Justin Verlander Thread

Every player headed for the HOF deserves his own thread. Go make a Robinson Cano thread, someone.

Verlander's turnaround seems real. Or if you simply look at 2014 as a blip, he never really went away. He's now 7-0 with Houston, 32 hits in 60.2 innings, 77 K against 10 BB (not counting the postseason). For his career, he's in the neighborhood of Halladay.

Verlander: 190-114, 3.44, 1.179 WHIP, 3.16 K/BB, 124 ERA+
Halladay: 203-105, 3.38, 1.178 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB, 131 ERA+

Clear advantage Halladay, and it's doubtful Verlander's career rate states are going to end up better than where they are now. But if he stays relatively strong for another two or three seasons, Verlander's HOF resume will be solid.

Icky old-school appreciation:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23174792/justin-verlander-last-dying-breed-mound

"The ace starter, the workhorse, the guy who can lift a team on his back and carry it across the finish line -- one-name guys like Gibson, Unit, Rocket, Koufax, Verlander -- these are the legends of the game."

Three surnames and two nicknames. I don't think he really understands the "one-name" concept.

incredible game last night yet overshadowed (ahem) by Big Bart

They had exactly the same Game Score: 86.

xxp Oh yes, the famous one-word nickname, Unit

He understands half the concept. If you say Elvis, Marilyn, Jackie, Beyonce, or LeBron, I know who you're talking about. And, it's true, if you say Koufax, I know you mean Sandy Koufax the baseball player, and not certified accountant Fred Koufax from Lansing, Michigan.

I don't understand the thread title!

I think it's worth remembering that the Tigers had Scherzer, Verlander and Price (and Porcello) in their rotation at one point.

Almost up to 150 IP with the Astros--better right now than in 2011.

Justin Verlander Breaking Ohtani's Ankles with an 88 mph Slider. 🤢

Pitcher-on-Half-Pitcher Crime. 👮‍♂️🚨🚔 pic.twitter.com/6Otnryc715

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 17, 2018

gonna need that gif'ed pronto

i think ohtani got away with the check swing?

Every player headed for the HOF deserves his own thread. Go make a Robinson Cano thread, someone.

sigh, it was a simpler time...

Another strong start. Puzzling pitch count, though: 111 over 6.2 innings, but low hits (5), walks (0), and strikeouts (5). A lot of foul balls, I guess.

Four homers surrendered to the Tigers, the least-homering team in MLB.

RIP.

Justin Verlander just compared himself to Dory of 'Finding Nemo': "Keep swimming. Just keep pitching."

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 12, 2018

Posnanski has Verlander #92 on his 100-greatest countdown (and managed to sneak in a photo of he and Kate Upton engaging in a little no-you're-schmoopy).

I noticed Verlander is 27-10 with the Astros, which is the same record as Carlton in '72 (famously, with the last-place Phillies). A comparison:

Carlton             Verlander
IP: 346.1           305.1
H: 257              216
K: 310              401
BB: 87               56
HR: 17               42
ERA: 1.97           2.36

Huge advantage for Carlton in HR; huge advantage for Verlander in strikeouts. After you make all the adjustments for era, park, etc., Carlton's WAR was 12.1, Verlander's 10.0--he's basically (with a World Series winner, yes, rather than a last-place team) put together Steve Carlton's 1972 over two seasons.

A little Monday-morning quarterbacking here, but what exactly was it that gave Verlander such pause about going to the Astros? Was it all the young talent and playing for a potential dynasty that he was worried about?

2800 strikeouts

He went off on Manfred and the baseball a few weeks ago. Something from Posnanski this morning:

Back to Verlander: He has now allowed 31 home runs this year — an astounding 1.64 homers per nine innings. He also has a 2.81 ERA. These two things happening concurrently does not compute. Here are the best ERAs for pitchers who have allowed 1.6 or more homers per nine innings:

1. Justin Verlander, 2019, 2.81
2. Mike Fiers, 2018, 3.56
3. Ramon Ortiz, 2002, 3.77
4. A.J. Griffin, 2013, 3.83
5. Bert Blyleven, 1986, 4.01

From 2005-15, Verlander's HR/9 rate was 0.8 (ERA, 3.52); 2016-18, 1.2 (ERA, 2.97); this year, 1.6 (ERA, 2.81). That's bizarre.

He's given up three in a game four times this year.

Obviously...he's leading the league in WHIP!

When he pitched for Detroit, it used to be way more doubles than home runs but the numbers have gotten closer since he was traded and this year it's 31 HR, 23 2B.

tbf, houston's a more homeriffic park than detroit

(and also the ball is juiced)

Taking this weirdness to the next level: complete game two-hitter, 11 strikeouts, no walks, 99 pitches...both hits HR, loses 2-1.

didnt throw a single pitch w a runner on base

That is an insane all time loss.

According to sports betting sites, it was the biggest single game upset in 15 years.

I noticed this weird headline last night on The Detroit Free Press (slightly altered this morning): "Vintage Verlander pitches Tigers to 2-1 victory in Houston." Maybe that's behind this unfortunate story:

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/08/22/houston-astros-detroit-free-press-justin-verlander/2081318001/

Just what baseball needs, a shot of Donald Trump.

The Tigers beat Justin Verlander again. They continue to win the trade.

— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) August 22, 2019

lol this guy should really stop talking

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/justin-verlander-donation-coronavirus-relief-1.5522293

Whatever you think of him, that's great.

Tommy John

Worth it financially: set to make $33M next year. Is it worth it beyond that? His HOF induction is a lock, he plays for a despised team, and I'll stop there.

Re the HOF: while he benefitted in terms of run support and probably a few extra wins, I assume the sign-stealing doesn't stick to Verlander the way it will with Altuve or any other hitter.

He probably won’t be back until the last month of next season. And he’ll be going on 40 in the 2022 season. If he’d been mediocre I could see him hanging it up, but I feel like he’s got to feel like he has a few years left in him.

has anyone else had TJ at age 37?

Moyer had it at like 47!

I've no doubt he'd still be effective at 40, I'm just not sure why he'd push himself to get there (beyond the obvious incentive of the big payday...I'm so clueless about contracts; I assume he forfeits the money if he were to retire?).

Yup. But if he w aged to retire I’m sure the team could work with him to renegotiate since they’d want to avoid paying that full salary (opting to defer likely) while he’s hurt.

But I totally get why someone would want to keep playing baseball as long as possible. A) you’re playing baseball. B) it’s all you know, life after any career can be scary. C) you’re playing baseball!!! Who wouldn’t want to play ball as long as possible?!

most successful big leaguers are insanely competitive; i'm sure he's no different

pretty remarkable season, at 39, coming off TJ

12-3, 1.89, 0.88 WHIP, just passed schilling and gibson for 14th on the all-time K list

didn't know he was still pitching tbh. that's amazing.

Posnaski had a shareable piece two weeks ago about his chances for 300 wins:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/verlander-and-300?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

62 more wins would seem almost impossible to me, unless he is indeed Randy Johnson (or a chemically-assisted Roger Clemens).

He is honestly incredible

Love that Kershaw is still doing it too

Pos' stats are a bit misleading -- Randy Johnson had 75 wins from his age 39 season onward.

Verlander's FIP is over 3.00, but most pitchers need a year to return to form after TJ, so he might be getting better.

Another great start today: now 13-3 (yes, yes, I know), 1.86 ERA, the usual excellent rate stats. Gotta be one the half-dozen greatest years ever for a 39-year-old starter (post-war, anyway). But he'd lose the Cy Young to McClanahan.

(Manoah pitched well today too, and he's hanging on. But unless both those guys get shelled a couple of times, he's got no chance.)

Or maybe the best-ever for a 39-year-old starter. Checked Randy Johnson (hurt) and Clemens (so-so), and beyond them, who else would there be? Even Cy Young (so-so), Walter Johnson (last season, hanging on), and Christy Mathewson (three years into retirement) don't rate.

Yeah, Clemens was so-so in his age 39 season, but won the Cy at age 41 and posted a sub-2.00 ERA the year after. Narrowing the search down to a specific age is a bit misleading.

Even so, Phil Niekro had a 10.0 WAR season at age 39 (he was very good and pitched over 300 innings), Wainwright was great just last year. I'm sure there are others.

Clemens was so-so in his age 39 season, but won the Cy at age 41 and posted a sub-2.00 ERA the year after.

For that same reason, I kind of put Niekro (and Hough, who led the league in IP at 39 with 285, and was pretty effective in a hitter's year) in a separate category.

Carlton lasted to 43, but his was terrible his last two seasons.

"he"

He seems quite ready to play till nobody wants him, so I guess it'll be health and money, in that order--if he's healthy, I'm sure someone will be willing to pay him.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2023/justin-verlander-mets-300-wins-chase-1234730600/

I feel like 300 wins is one of those achievements that'll definitely be accomplished but it'll truly require a Maddux-like level of being consistently injury free and declining slowly vs precipitously.

There's no one under the age of 30 with 100 career wins. Top 3: Berrios (29 yrs old, 81 wins), Marquez (28 yrs old, 65 wins), Giolito (28 yrs old, 60 wins).

I wonder if Verlander's injury troubles the last few seasons have been a trade-off: costing him wins, obviously, but saving him innings and extending his career. If he is serious about 300, I'd do my best to stay in Houston.

Had the game on in the background last night, listening more than watching. Two outs away from a shutout; got a great inning-ending DP early in the game after loading the bases.

Man, that Justin Verlander's a great pitcher.

https://phildellio.tripod.com/lincecum.jpg

(Kidding around here.)

lol

Returns tonight. He was good last year, but how long can he keep this up? Clemens won a Cy Young at 41; probably had some help. Spahn, Johnson, and Ryan were good. Maddux was so-so. I don't know if there are any other relevant comparisons.

he got shelled in his two minor league rehab outings

Didn't know that...I should have included Seaver and Glavine; both so-so at 41. I left out guys like Jamie Moyer and Bartolo Colon--impressive careers, but not the same caliber as the others. Left out Niekro, too, for obvious reasons.

One guy who famously tried to stretch it out and fell apart at 41 was Carlton.

6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 0 BB, 78 pitches is nice work, even if it is against the nats

8/21 first-pitch strikes is subpar, but maybe even more impressive that he overcame it

260th win, top 10 in strikeouts:

https://www.mlb.com/news/justin-verlander-passes-greg-maddux-for-10th-all-time-in-strikeouts

I agree with the URL here: unlikely but not impossible.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/will-justin-verlander-get-to-300-wins-why-milestone-is-unlikely-but-not-impossible-for-astros-veteran/

6% according to the Favorite Toy. The first necessity is someone who actually cares about getting there, and Verlander does seem to check that box. With the indifference to pitcher wins in the analytic era, it might be more of a curiosity than anything else if he managed to pull it off.

His 0.4 fWAR/-0.1 bWAR so far this season isn't doing him a lot of favors in the projections department.

Which team would be willing to roster him for the sake of vanity counting stats when he's marginally above replacement and in questionable health?

The Angels

Which team would be willing to roster him

most of them?

Has he ever looked worse?

0-3, 6.93 ERA, 39 avg GameScore over last 5 starts against mostly <.500 teams.

Feel like he looks worse every start, maybe he’s not recovering as well as he used to after games

I get this mental image of him, Scherzer, and Kershaw limping to the finish line, waiting to see which one falls down first and withdraws from the race.

The Dodgers want Kershaw to be back and ready for the playoffs. If they need him...good luck, L.A.

I've never seen a more cursed starting rotation predictable outcome.

Has Scherzer been sighted at all? I know DeGrom was throwing quite recently

Verlander struggling since return from IL, only 71 ip for season, so Mets off the hook for $17 mil in '25. Scherzer on IL again, only 39 ip. Cohen's decision to eat money/move on from both last year paved the way for '24 success, with Stearns' smart signings of Severino/Manaea.

— John Harper (@NYNJHarper) September 3, 2024

I was going to include deGrom in that group, but I read he's pitching well in the minors--the finish line still seems a ways down the road for him (unless he just suddenly decides it isn't worth it anymore). Scherzer, not sure what's going on.

Verlander and Scherzer tied as the active leaders in strikeouts with 3,405 (in 3,397 and 2,874 IP, respectively)

(xpost) "Worth it" in terms of what he puts his body through, I should say--obviously, it's really worth it in other ways.

In deGrom's last 254.2 IP (2020-2023), which at one point might've been a not atypical number for a starting pitcher --

397 Ks, 0.734 whip, 192 ERA+, 2.12 ERA

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

Otm

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

Casas stood at his locker inside the visitors' clubhouse, preparing for an interview following the Sox's crucial series-clinching win against the Astros. A clubhouse attendant approached Casas's area, gathering his game-worn gray New Balance cleats, packing the first baseman's bag as the team prepared to head back to Boston.

"Excuse me, don't take those please," Casas said to the clubbie.
Casas turned the cleats around, showing that they had been authenticated.
Why?
"(Those are the cleats worn)on my Justin
Verlander hit,' Casas said.

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

― Michael F Gill, Tuesday, September 3, 2024 5:22 PM (yesterday)

I feel like I just got carded at the bodega.

It may hurt more as a Mets fan.

yikes, just when you thought he couldn't look worse...

That's got to be one of his half-dozen worst starts ever.

Thread title delivers: Verlander uses his wife’s zoom account to attend a presser, a journalist (not on mute!) points this out. Absolutely embarrassing

Being accidentally unmuted in 2025 is crazy https://t.co/VuOC8WmHjb pic.twitter.com/YvWkdYNKGi

— dylan (@sfgsalsa) January 13, 2025

i'm willing to believe Verlander might overperform expectations in 2025, he was "okay" in the first half of 2024 and maybe he'll be reasonably effective coming off a healthy offseason. he missed two months and was terrible after that, so maybe there's some reason for slight optimism that he'll have his shit together for SF. I'm not drafting him for my fantasy team again though...

It helps that he’ll be playing half his games in SF.

if i went to SF as a pitcher I think I could break out with an ERA in the low 4s and my fastball reaches maybe 50.

yeah no, he looked good in a couple ST games

Thinking it might really be time to hang it up. The Giants in the WC mix probably makes him want to hang on, but I don't know, would he be automatic for a post-season roster--does his salary guarantee that? An SI piece about his "historic bad luck" has this:

According to OptaSTATS, there have been 4,200 starting pitchers who have entered the All-Star break with at least 65 strikeouts since the All-Star Game was established in 1933. Verlander is the only one who went into the break without a win.

That aside, he's hardly pitching well.

https://i.imgur.com/aRpOYw0.png
-0.5 bWAR
+0.7 fWAR

as an aside: fWAR seems broken as it has Jordan Hicks @ +0.6 fWAR and he is/was the worst starter in MLB... also there are ZERO qualified pitchers with a negative fWAR this season. perhaps 1.0 fWAR is true replacement level?

That aside, he's hardly pitching well.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 10, 2025 9:00 AM (twenty-nine minutes ago)

you can just say he sucks... it's okay.

Or if something suggests that might be a simplification, I could just say it's broken.

also there are ZERO qualified pitchers with a negative fWAR this season. perhaps 1.0 fWAR is true replacement level?

― imperial frfr (Steve Shasta), Thursday, July 10, 2025 9:29 AM (three days ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is an interesting observation I hadn’t noticed before, but there actually hasn’t been a negative fWAR qualified starting pitcher since Marco Gonzales put up/down -0.1 in 2022. I think the explanation is pretty straightforward: only somewhere between 40-60 pitchers qualify for the ERA title every year, or fewer than 2 per team, so if you’re really an AAAA type arm you’re going to end up shuffling between levels and getting platooned a lot, and aren’t going to be able to pitch enough innings to accumulate negative value

The good: 10th pitcher to hit 3,500 strikeouts.
The bad: 5 runs in 5 innings, another loss.

(If you don't like him, feel free to reverse that.)

Actually, Scherzer's only 44 away from 3,500. Seven or eight more starts (if he stays healthy)...going to be close. I could see him falling short and not make it back next year.