Guess the ORIOLES' final record 2018

49W

My interest was piqued a couple of weeks ago when I calculated them to be on pace for 41 wins, meaning a shot at falling short of 40, the '62 Mets number that's easy to remember. (The dominance of the powerhouse Toronto Blue Jays over them contributed a lot to this.) Then they won a couple against the Red Sox. So somewhere in the 40s; over or under both unlikely. 47-115 I'll say.

Just the one win against Boston--it's Tampa Bay that screwed up their march toward history.

loss tonight puts them at 32-75, i.e. on pace for slightly better than 48-114 . . . before they jettisoned all their decent players

I voted 53. This team's much better than their lousy record and they won't continue to have such bad luck.

which team?

Eeephus makes a good point insofar as they're running seven games behind their Pythagorean record. But if they've dismantled the team that was the recipient of all that bad luck, there's probably no reason for the expected balancing-out to happen. (And not much time--and I'm just now noticing the part about their remaining schedule in the original post.)

it's hard to play worse than they have, no matter who they've traded

46-116 why because i did the math

(remember that when i'm right)

(do not assume i threw a dart at the screen please)

(please)

Voted 48W

they won't win another game

mark my words - this team is going to catch fire

60-102

Hung on to beat the mighty Bombers! You can't predict (a) baseball (game).

ok NOW they won't win another game

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Still maintaining a 49-win clip (.301), but the Royals have lost 6 straight and tied them at 34-79. I boldly predict that KC will finish worse.

The Orioles and Red Sox won't break any records, but what's the record for games-behind? They might have a serious chance at that one. The 2001 Mariners and the '98 Yankees had divisional leads of 43.0 and 51.0; the Red Sox are 45.5 up on Baltimore right now.

haven't done all the research, but the '62 Mets finished 60.5 behind the Giants (in a single 10-team league standings)

I think they can beat that. Boston winning 110 and Baltimore 50 would be +60, so they just need to step it up/down a bit. They've got seven games left with each other.

Fangraphs projection this morning has them finishing 55-107. They really have been playing like a more normal terrible team since the break, 7-10

sorry, there were several 20th century teams that finished further back than the Mets; 65.5 seems to be the "modern" record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_records

I think many of you forgot to factor in the two remaining games against the Mets.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-the-orioles-be-better-with-rafael-palmeiro/

On a related topic, I'd be perfectly okay with the Jays releasing Russ Martin and signing Manny Sanguillén for the rest of the season.

Orioles continuing to be, not a good team, but not as world-historically terrible as the first half of the season looked. CG win by Alex Cobb today, who, lest we forget, has a pretty long record of being an average-to-good pitcher when not a member of the 2018 Baltimore Orioles. Now at 37-86, 9-17 since the break. I still think they break 50.

Yeah at this point Royals as much a threat to not break 50 as the Orioles.

40!

showdown with the royals this weekend

no terrible japes please

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24586211/baltimore-orioles-wear-braille-jerseys-honor-blind

with machado and schoop gone, the top orioles position player (by 2018 bWAR) is craig gentry at 1.0

he was just released

Their final 10 games (out of 21 left) are against Boston, New York, and Houston. They look like a good bet for under 50 wins and more than 60 games behind Boston.

1-9 in september with a 6.80 team ERA

if they go 5-12 the rest of the way you all owe me 1 beer (cost of 1 beer split amongst you all)

is Chris Davis gonna hit the -3 WAR mark

i will buy eephus a beer no matter what happens

43-106. 59.5 games behind boston. 13 games left

3 vs TOR
3 at BOS
3 at NYY
4 vs HOU

i think they can win 3 or 4 of those

mark my words - this team is going to catch fire

60-102

― Karl Malone

wow, oops

Opposing hitters have an incredible .939 OPS vs. Orioles starting pitchers this month!

To put that in perspective:

A hitter with a .939 OPS for this season would rank 7th in MLB - just behind Alex Bregman (.952) & ahead of Christian Yelich (.937).

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 17, 2018

"I’ve never seen sports teams survive seasons like this without people losing jobs, period”: catcher Caleb Joseph did not hold back when talking to @danconnolly2016 about the current state of the Orioles https://t.co/tiKLMOJa1y

— The Athletic (@TheAthleticBAL) September 18, 2018

caleb joseph has played in 75 games, batted 259 times, has a wRC+ of 59 and fWAR 0.0 at catcher (his defense is above average)

wRC+ of 59 52

At least one, and likely two, of BOS/NYY/HOU will be fielding their own AAA teams during their series with the Orioles. I'm sure they'll win a few games and end up with around 47 wins. Hey, that was my guess in the poll!

60.0 behind--first time this year?

isn't he the guy from a couple years ago who went remarkably long without a single RBI?

yeah, that's him. and to be fair, he's about as good as any 32-year-old backup catcher who only reached the majors a month before turning 28. not his fault the orioles' 23yo catcher of the future (chance sisco) has been even worse

the o's will probably non-tender him this winter; i'm not sure if it's a good career move to be the outspoken accountability guy in this situation

Being metrically defines as exactly “replacement level” is never a good position to be in when it’s time to talk about replacing people

defined

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-orioles-and-royals-could-at-least-still-beat-a-triple-a-team-right

By WAR, the most valuable player currently on Baltimore’s roster is Richard Bleier, a 31-year-old reliever who has been on the DL since June.

https://deadspin.com/the-baltimore-orioles-have-been-even-worse-than-they-lo-1829362955

ILB ftw

wow. we did it?!

My optimism was misplaced but I still like this team a lot, there's something very Oriole about Jonathan Villar

is it is 8 WAR over 6 seasons?

buck stops here

Great manager for this team, my favorite since Weaver. I see the reasoning but he can leave with head high.

What's Buck gonna do now?!

he's 62, maybe he'll just chillax

solid manager; unfortunate that the lasting memory of his stint in baltimore will be not using zach britton

What are ya gonna do now, Buck?

If you made an average of all the faces, tics and physiques of all MLB managers in major leagues history, you end up with Buck. I mean it as a compliment.

this is a team that needs to get back to basics. that needs gritty old-time baseball and someone who understands The [Bird] Way. that needs mike matheny

538 speculates they could be even worse this year.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2019-orioles-are-one-of-the-most-anonymous-teams-in-mlb-history/

opening day starter: alex cobb

of the 78 pitchers to throw 150 innings last year, he ranked 65th in fWAR (dylan bundy was 71st, andrew cashner 75th)

They're not gonna be worse this year.

feel like davis can't possibly be as bad as last year and maybe bundy won't give up 41 homers, but i don't otherwise see any reason for optimism

sounds like it's time for Guess the ORIOLES' final record 2019

davis is batting .143 in spring training so far

pythag had them at 55-107 last year (eight games better than their actual record) so there's that

Who will be worse: o’s or marlins?

It was the anonymity angle that drew me to the article. I looked over their roster and recognized maybe four names...which doesn't mean much in view of how poorly I keep up with new players. I did notice they've got Palmeiro's son and Yastrzemski's grandson.

Don't think either of those guys will be in Baltimore opening day though. Neither will Ryan Ripken, who also got a spring training PA.

pythag had them at 55-107 last year (eight games better than their actual record) so there's that

Right. And Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, and Andrew Cashner are 3/5 of a starting rotation who very much ought to be better this year than last year. I don't think this team is going to be good, but everything, EVERYTHING has to go wrong for you to lose 115 games and at that level of extremity the undertow of regression is really strong.

cobb might benefit from having a full spring training, but both he and cashner are now in their 30s and have actively bad K and BB numbers. bundy is league-average if he doesn't allow last year's insane number of homers. and they're without the half-season of machado.

but yeah, getting to 115 losses is never easy

With Alex Cobb starting the season on the injured list, Brandon Hyde said the Orioles will open the season with the following rotation against the Yankees:
-Andrew Cashner
-Nate Karns as an opener
-Dylan Bundy

— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) March 26, 2019

^^^ "Hey guess what @NathanSRuiz, they went 2 for 3 in the Bronx.

ON PACE FOR 108 WINS AMIGO"

should I tweet that or has someone already beat me to it?