ILB Counting Stats - "It adds up over time.." watchlist etc.

Got looking at the all time HR list checking out the actives in the list.

Pujols is definitely going to keep playing with that much cash on the table, he is 27 shy of Willie Mays for 5th all time. I don't know if he will catch him, he has been toast for good while now.

With Adrian Beltre retiring, Miggy Cabrera is next to potentially get to 500 HRs. Cabrera will be 36 next year and 35 shy of 500. Got to wonder how healthy he will stay going forward, he's at that age where he could just continue to fall apart too.

The next active player on the list's totals I thought were really interesting. Nelson Cruz will be 38 next year and he is at 360 HRs with all but 22 from age 28. Good chemicals or hard work or not, the guy has hit some homers in Seattle and that place is a cavern.

After Cabrera, Encarnacion might get to 500 (380 at 35--looking doubtful, but he's got two years on Cruz and 20 more HR), and then you have to go down the list to Stanton (305 at 28--2023?) and Trout (240 at 26--2025?).

Coinciding with the complete lack of interest in pitcher wins anymore, I think I'm ready to agree with the old saw--for a long time simply not true--that you may not see another unless the game fundamentally changes. I thought Kershaw was a good bet three or four years ago, but with 153 at 30 and very dicey health, looks unlikely. The other best pitchers in the game have either zero chance--Kluber (32, 96)--or close to zero: Verlander has 204 at 35, Scherzer 159 at 33, Sale 103 at 29. They'd each have to average around 20 a year until 40.

("another 300-game winner," as I'm sure you figured out)

A record that has amazingly stood up is Reggie's 2,597 strikeouts. With guys routinely striking out 200+ times a year, that's only about 12-13 years of league-leading performance. Thome almost broke it (ended up 50 short); the third-place guy, Dunn, was out of the league at 34, otherwise he would have (200 short). So you have to be good enough that the strikeouts don't lose you your job; Thome was, Dunn wasn't. Stanton looks like a good bet to finally break it. He's got 1,351 at age 28, and he averages about 180-190 for a full season. If he remains healthy, that's about seven more seasons.

Actually, Justin Upton may get there first.

As noted above, Cabrera may get to 500 HR this year (35 shy), but he'll probably need two seasons; he may get to 3,000 hits next year (324 shy), but he'll probably need three for that.

I was thinking that if you were to give Stanton 90 HR for 2019/20 (instead of the 7 he actually hit), he'd end his age-31 season with ~440 HR, and would have at least an outside shot at catching Bonds.

Actually, that's way too many, unless you make COVID disappear too--forgot they only played 60 games last year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-career-milestones-to-watch-for-in-2022

Truthfully, not the most exciting list...Cabrera's 3,000th will make him the seventh 500/3,000 guy. Last five seasons: .264/.335/.401, 99 OPS+, -1.1 WAR.

Posnanski posted about Dusty Baker today:

There has been shockingly little talk about this, but sometime in the next couple of weeks — in this 75th anniversary season of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier — Dusty Baker is going to win his 2,000th game as a big-league manager.

He'll be the 12th manager to do so. However much you think that's worth, much rarer than 3,000 hits (Cabrera will be #33) or 500 HR (Cabrera was #28). Almost as rare as 3,000 hits/500 HR--Cabrera will be the seventh.

If he's sitting on 1,999 wins, I hope Dusty doesn't remove himself from the game.

ayoooo :)

it would pretty amazing to get ejected in that scenario, though. and then immediately fired

Which reminds me: James thinks that Maddon's IBB the other day will probably cost him his job before the year's out.

It's beyond the pail--and unless the Angels rally to have a good season, it WILL cost him his job. There are things you just can't do, lines you just can't cross. That's just f'ing stupid. You just can't do stuff THAT stupid and keep your job

("The pail," yes--he never corrects typos in questions or answers.)

typos and corrections, those are things you just can't do, lines you just can't cross.

Man, I'd love to send that in to him, but he'd probably kick me off the site for good.

What I found interesting about James's comment, by the way, wasn't the IBB itself--don't really have any opinion on that--but the tactical idea that ownership would have something they keep in reserve in case they want to use it later.

that IBB was indeed terrible, and i don't really like maddon, but jeez ownership doesn't need ~reasons~

just ask rick renteria, whom the cubs fired after one season because maddon was available

tigers postponed tonight, doubleheader tomorrow. if miggy doesn't do it tomorrow it is boone's farm's fault

(xpost) I know what you're saying, but it's probably harder (from a public-relations standpoint), at least-short term, to fire a sainted manager like Maddon than Renteria.

That Dusty Baker column quotes extensively from the Al Campanis Nightline interview. God...beyond the pail, to coin a phrase. To get fired as quickly as he did in 1987 (within 48 hours) took some doing, and he was up to it. That he was who he was--Jackie Robinson's DP partner in Montreal, the scout who signed Roberto Clemente--makes it all that much sadder.

I’ve lost track who we’re talking about here.

Kershaw can overtake Don Sutton today as the Dodgers' leader in career strikeouts.

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-mlb-team-s-all-time-strikeout-leader

Teams you probably can't guess: Rockies, Brewers, Marlins. (And the Rangers have a weird one.)

2,000 for Dusty Baker.

https://www.mlb.com/news/managers-with-2000-career-wins

San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado tallied his 1,500th hit with a first-inning RBI single at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. At 29 years old, Machado becomes the 17th player in MLB history with 1,500 hits and 250 or more home runs before turning 30 years old.

now i have to know the worst player out of the other 16 who reached 1500/250 before 30

Are team wins a counting stat? Yes, they are!

With the win, the Yankees are just the sixth team since 1947 to win 46 of their first 62 games. They join the 2001 Mariners (49-13), the 1998 Yankees (47-15), '84 Tigers (46-16), '55 Dodgers (46-16) and the '53 Yankees (46-16) -- each of those teams except Seattle won the World Series.

(mlb.com)

Freddie Freeman and 3,000 hits:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-freddie-freeman-re-open-the-3000-hit-club/

First LH-hitting shortstop (non-switch-hitter) to hit 200 HR. Was surprised at first, but then thought about it--if you hit left-handed, you probably throw left-handed too.

https://www.mlb.com/news/corey-seager-hits-200th-career-home-run

More Freddie (from FB; sounds reasonable, but I haven't checked):

Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers will enter next season as MLB's active leader in the following categories:

Runs Scored -- 1,298 (2nd, Andrew McCutchen -- 1,239)

Hits -- 2,267 (2nd, Jose Altuve -- 2,232)

Total Bases -- 3,866 (2nd, Andrew McCutchen -- 3,638)

Doubles -- 508 (2nd, Paul Goldschmidt -- 446)

RBI -- 1,232 (2nd, Paul Goldschmidt -- 1,187)

Extra-Base Hits -- 882 (2nd, Paul Goldschmidt -- 831)

In addition, the 35-year-old Freeman is second among active players in career batting average (.300) to Jose Altuve (.306).

Kind of wild we only have two career 300+ avg hitters

Probably using 3,000 AB as a cutoff for that; Arraez is .323 after 2,624 AB.

Honestly way more impressed by McCutchen being 2nd in active RS/TB due to playing for the Pirates for most of his career...

Mike Trout was in the .300 club but this last season dropped him to .299

https://i.postimg.cc/G2YC3bmP/milestones.jpg

That cluster at 350 HR; haven't checked their ages, but gut tells me yes on Harper and Machado for 500, no to the other two.

According to the Favorite Toy:

Harper - 68%
Machado - 54%
Freeman - 12%
Arenado - 11%

Larger disparity than I would have guessed. For comparison's sake, Judge is 90% for 500, 41% for 600, 17% for 700, and 8% to pass Bonds' 762. The Favorite Toy heavily weights your last three seasons inversely.

Machado is so so good

Favorite Toy has him at 28% for 3,000 hits.

As George Costanza would say, milestones in the offing.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-milestones-to-watch-for-in-2025

wow it didn’t take much to top the Padres all time home run list. Machado only needed 163+

Pitchers park

Lindor got his 1,500th hit last night, and there's a piece on mlb.com about him being a contender for 3,000. He's an interesting case because, the way I see it, there are two arrows pointing in opposite directions. On the plus side, he's a great player and a great guy, so finding a place to play till he's 40 won't be difficult, especially as an athletic middle infielder. He got a fast start, playing regularly at 21, and that's usually crucial to 3,000 hits. He's durable--over 150 games six times.

But after hitting .313 and .301 his first two years, .284 is his best year, the only time he's exceeded .280; he's .267 overall past those first two seasons, and his career high for hits is 183.

The Favorite Toy had him at 15% going into this season, which sounds about right...I might up that to 20 or 25%, though, based on all those intangibles that point up.

manny machado may be able to pull it off

Better bet (see above).

i think Lindor is athletic enough he could pull a Julio Franco and play baseball until people are literally begging him to stop.

His smile alone is worth 5% that the Favorite Toy misses.

oh, aye.

Bochy moved into 6th place on the win list the other day:

https://i.postimg.cc/xTQrYMr9/bochy.jpg

Mack's record is as untouchable as Cy Young's win record; you could manage for 35 years, win 100 every year, and you'd still fall short.