2022-23 Hot Stove thread

Pedro Grifol hired as the new White Sox manager - https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10053188-pedro-grifol-hired-as-white-sox-manager-to-replace-tony-la-russa-after-royals-stint

Mets reportedly have signed Edwin Diaz to a 5 year/$102M deal. He’s still only 28.

Most of the Mets' pitching staff are free agents. I didn't think resigning Diaz was the top priority, but there you go. How much did deGrom's asking price just go up?

Resigning Diaz was a no brainer and felt like a top priority to me. He had an incredible year and is popular with fans/clubhouse/NY market.

signing players who are popular is the new market inefficiency

Hope he never leaves.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-back-with-los-angeles/

hard to imagine how the mets giving out the richest relief pitcher contract in history could backfire on them

I'm a little surprised there aren't more wakefield style end of career deals made. Kersh seems like a good choice for such a thing

Verlander too, for that matter; like 3 years guaranteed high AAV + mutual options

Diaz signing seems like a recipe for future regret tbh

the mets seem well positioned to spend way too much money, but if things go south it's going to be really hard to find another team to take on $20M/yr for a reliever

Does anyone else to off-season predictatrons?
I do the MLBTR one every year with a friend as a contest between the two of us, and it looks like the baseball subReddit has one based on fangraphs top 50 FA aswell.

Should I post my guesses so you can all mock me?

Yes

1. Aaron Judge *
Yankees
2. Carlos Correa *
Cubs
3. Trea Turner *
Dodgers
4. Xander Bogaerts *
Phillies
5. Dansby Swanson *
Twins
6. Carlos Rodon *
Red Sox
7. Jacob deGrom *
Mets
8. Justin Verlander *
Astros
9. Brandon Nimmo *
Mets
10. Willson Contreras *
Cardinals
11. Kodai Senga *
Rangers
12. Josh Bell *
Astros
13. Chris Bassitt *
Padres
14. Jameson Taillon *
Angels
15. Andrew Benintendi *
Tigers
16. Taijuan Walker *
Giants
17. Sean Manaea *
Orioles

18. Andrew Heaney *
Twins
19. Jose Abreu *
Mariners
20. Mitch Haniger *
Mariners
21. Noah Syndergaard *
Dodgers
22. Anthony Rizzo *
Yankees
23. Nathan Eovaldi *
Red Sox
24. Taylor Rogers *
Red Sox
25. J.D. Martinez *
Angels
26. Christian Vazquez *
Cubs
27. Kenley Jansen *
Rangers
28. Clayton Kershaw *
Dodgers
29. Rafael Montero *
Astros
30. Jose Quintana *
Tigers
31. Zach Eflin *
Royals
32. Carlos Estevez *
Braves
33. Jurickson Profar *
Braves
34. Joc Pederson *
Giants
35. Martin Perez *
Rangers
36. Tyler Anderson *
Dodgers
37. Brandon Drury *
White Sox
38. Ross Stripling *
Blue Jays
39. Andrew Chafin *
Red Sox
40. Jean Segura *
Braves
41. Michael Wacha *
Diamondbacks
42. David Robertson *
Phillies
43. Michael Brantley *
Astros
44. Michael Conforto *
Reds
45. Adam Ottavino *
Cardinals
46. Chris Martin *
Blue Jays
47. Justin Turner *
Brewers
48. Corey Kluber *
Diamondbacks
49. Mike Clevinger *
Blue Jays
50. Drew Rucinski *
Cubs

MOCK AWAY

is this WAR total?

(unsure if joke, but) the numbers in front of each name? they're just listed in the order of projected contract size on mlbtr (i think).

Oooooh

Such a sadly realistic vision of what the Orioles "going all in to win now" could look like

i forgot about michael conforto!

The Mets will too.

tyler anderson to the angels; thermo is 0-for-1

joc pederson & martin perez accepted qualifying offers; thermo 2-for-3

fortunately i can edit responses until tmrw. so i am about to be 3/3, but so is anyone else half paying attention. tho Anderson to Angels will effect some other pics. also i didn't mean to have two SP going to the Dbacks, so i'll edit that too.

so – I now have Taillon heading to the Giants, Walker to the Cardinals, Anderson to the Angels and Wacha to the Phillies

hmm teoscar hernandez traded from the blue jays to the mariners?

For Erik Swanson and Adam Macko, two pitchers--didn't see that coming.

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/mariners-reportedly-trade-for-all-star-outfielder-teoscar-hernandez-161420530.html

do you think one of the three jays catchers might be traded this off-season?

Seems to be almost a certainty. My initial guess was Jansen, but they seem pretty happy with their platoon and supposedly it's Moreno who they're looking to trade.

what do think they're they looking for in return? starting pitching? that seems like a constant need for every team. i know the cardinals system pretty well and am willing to broker a deal with mozeliak

actually i just looked moreno up in some more detail and i am thinking it would take an amazing prospect dump in order to land Moreno, esp with his service time still less then a year. i don't think this is going to work. i will have to tell mo

Always starting pitching, yeah. We've got two solid starters, maybe three (not totally convinced that Stripling will repeat), maybe four (who knows with Berrios). We need a reliable 4.00 ERA, R.A. Dickey-type at the back end.

Do what you can, KM.

We need a reliable 4.00 ERA, R.A. Dickey-type at the back end.

quintana might be a good choice for that, as a free agent. it seems like he really re-found his stuff last year, and even at more median kind of projection he's still an innings-eater

Stripling is a free agent! i'm hoping they can resign, but right now we have two reliable starters plus Berrios.
also, i really don't like the Hernandez deal.

I don't either, after looking at the two guys. Swanson was great last year, but it was his first good season. Macko, unless I'm missing something, doesn't look like an especially promising prospect.

Forgot about Stripling's free agency.

I can see the case for trading Teoscar--they got him for a washed-up Francisco Liriano, he's about to turn 30, and he's declined the last two seasons--I just wish they would have gotten more.

Actually, he turned 30 last month.

So the Mets/yankees are being investigated for some possible free agent shenanigans over judge!
(I doubt much comes of it tbh)

The Hernandez deal makes total sense to me, cool player to have in that one peak season, but probably not so much in any season going forward imo. I don’t know what his defense is like but seems like a fairly one-dimensional hitter.

I’d definitely say he’s more than a one season fluke. He seemed to figure something out in 2020 - his OPS+ the last three years has been 135. He’s not such a great defender tho.

gio urshela to the angles

So weird to see passan breaking the news on Instagram

Dodgers To Non-Tender Cody Bellinger.

Shocked, as I thought they would have kept him around and they can afford it.

Grant Brisbee thought the giants would take him if the Dodgers didn’t want him

I read the Blue Jays were interested too, under the premise he'd hit well at Rogers Centre. I'll take the blame if he lands in Toronto.

aaron judge needs his own thread

https://dodgerblue.com/cody-bellinger-rumors-toronto-blue-jays-interested-teams-if-dodgers-non-tender/2022/11/18/

Remember when Bellinger and Yelich were 1-2 in the mvp voting?

Someone on Reddit pointed out that Bellinger will probably want more playing time than the jays can guarantee. Makes sense for a less competitive team to take a flier and let him sink or swim in cf more than a team like the jays would.

was wondering why the brewers would trade Renfroe for three guys that look kinda like spare parts... then saw their outfield depth chart... three top 100 outfield prospects and another couple backup options after that!!

ONLY ONE MONTH REMAINS!

haha but yeah i am relatively excited for it. i had never watched a WBC before the last go round and found it really gripping and way more intense than i thought it would be. it also led to unforgettable (for me) moments that wouldn't be possible in MLB, like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuiEAdveNE0

something like that might happen in an all-star game, i suppose, but even then there's something about it coming in the midst of a competitive game where they really, really want to win (and have fun) that made it special

I always pay *some* attention to the wbc (I think we have a thread for it). I always enjoy seeing guys explode onto the scene through it

padres extend Yu Darvish through 2028, $108M, $18M AAV. when the contract is up at the end of 2028, darvish will be 42 years old.

a lot to pay for his Phil Niekro years

that is…pretty generous of the padres

spring training, pitchers and catchers reporting, all of that. is time for a new season thread yet? i want to get past this horrible, awful winter and part of it, psychologically, is the idea that baseball is happening again.

i took a screenshot of facebook content that i didn't ask to see but thought was intersting

https://i.imgur.com/jWPnC1b.png

There’s still a month of spring training to go though. Feels like the general thread needs to be closer to opening day.

That chart made me laugh. If you overpay enough people, you look come out looking pretty good.

midseason form

Jacob deGrom felt some tightness in his left side, and — given the cold weather and how early it is in camp, we’re told — they’re going to hold him back a day or two. We’re told the seriousness level is such that he would play through it if it were the regular season.

— Levi Weaver (@ThreeTwoEephus) February 15, 2023

good luck, texas

for anyone who cares about the bally sports mess, today is the day of their first missed interest payment, which kicks off the bankruptcy process. the next 30 days is a grace period for the missed payment. at that point, mid-march, it'll become more clear what kind of bankruptcy this is going to be, whether it's one negotiated and handled with MLB participation or more of a free-form chaotic thing

Diamond Sports' future was a topic on this week's podcast.

Listen here: https://t.co/jDj7q2c1tj pic.twitter.com/5JsP3v7CUI

— John Ourand (@Ourand_SBJ) February 15, 2023

a couple arbitration things. i guess the big one is corbin burnes. he asked for $10.75M, brewers countered with $10.01M, he lost his case. burnes wasn't happy about it:

Every fear that going to an arbitration hearing against Corbin Burnes could harm his relationship with the Brewers was founded.

“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired],” Burnes said. pic.twitter.com/Xv8DFyiKde

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 16, 2023

sounds like during the hearing, the brewers (or their reps in the case at least) tried to blame not making the 2022 playoffs on burnes (who pitched very well last year), and he's pissed.

in less notable news, ryan helsley also lost his arbitration case. he asked for $3M, will receive $2.15M instead. he was one of the very best relievers in the game last year and can throw 104 mph, but ok cardinals

Seems like a bad way for the brewers to save 749k

Textbook illustration of why arbitration hearings are a minefield to be avoided.

(If possible, obviously, and $750,000 is very avoidable.)

machado opting out after this season:

Machado confirms he plans to opt out at the end of this season, said Padres know where he stands when it comes to a new deal. Noted the market has changed dramatically since he signed.

“There’s a lot of money out there.”

“As a player about to opt out, it’s pretty good to see.”

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) February 17, 2023

Just don’t have a subpar season after you plan to opt out

yeah, kinda gutsy! to be fair, though, i think the market has shifted such that even if he had a relatively disastrous season, he would still probably be able to get a raise by opting out and signing with a team willing to snag him based on his record so far

He would have to completely implode to not make off like a bandit next offseason

looks like the White Sox have snagged Elvis Andrus for $3M, 1 year

One of those middle infielders I'm forever falling into the trap of thinking is a viable 3,000-hit candidate as they approach 30 (Andrus had 1,457 hits and was coming of a career high 191 going into his age-29 season). His career defensive stats are good, so it's too bad he'll be primarily remembered for his disastrous 7th inning against the Jays in the bat-flip game.

https://defector.com/the-search-for-the-real-jason-heyward-continues

i wish the dodgers good luck, i hope heyward gets it together but even if not he's possibly a good piece for a championship contender. would be nice, if he does get it together, that bellinger does as well. so it feels like the best possible even swap outcome.

he seems like someone who might benefit from a year overseas to try out all of his possible swing mechanics with a bit less of a spotlight on his struggles

hell, pretty much everyone would benefit from a year overseas, we should all try that next year

Apparently Machado is getting an 11 year extension at $350M. Yow.

only some of that is new years and money, but yeah.

The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Getting $170M for your age 35 to age 40 seasons still feels like a big win for Machado.

oh for sure! plus they can go on and put that padres hat on his hall of flame plaque

He’s so close to being a slam dunk HOF it’s kind of wild

he's pretty close. i'd rank guys like Freeman, Arenado, Harper and Betts ahead of him in terms of HoF odds; but i wouldn't bet against him at this point

i would bet $30 against him. but i'd bet $80 for him. and $1 on "becomes a home plate umpire", just because that one is worth tons if you win

For the fourth consecutive season, I had the AI create a motto for every MLB team. pic.twitter.com/DE05AkuqnB

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) March 4, 2023

Former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is finalizing a one-year contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan, sources tell ESPN. Bauer was released by the Dodgers and went unsigned by MLB teams after serving a record domestic-violence suspension. Deal will be official tonight.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 13, 2023

bye bitch!

all the bally sports / diamond fallout continues. not sure anyone cares about the "how do i watch the games on tv" part but there's going to be an arrangement where mlb takes over the broadcasts for some of the teams affected and temporarily stream the games for free for locals...but only for 4 of the teams affected. i think. also, some of the teams that were counting on RSN money are going to get less of it. the gist of it was that the RSNs were paying too much money to some of the teams with lower viewerships

Regarding the DSG bankruptcy, these are the 8 MLB teams likely to get their RSN fees cut according to MLB insider because the current deals are uneconomical: Diamondbacks, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, A's, Pirates, Twins, Rangers.

— Mike Ozanian (@MikeOzanian) March 15, 2023

The Rangers can't get viewers because everyone's too excited to go see them in person at the world's largest Tractor Supply.

Torn between wanting players to keep getting paid $$$$ and my desire to see the fallout from the RSN bubble bursting completely. The money would never work out but it would be cool to have local sports broadcast on channels in the UHF range again.

Not player movement, and behind a paywall, but The Athletic's starting pitcher rankings, in tiers:

https://theathletic.com/4328582/2023/03/23/mlb-aces-project-pitcher-rankings/

They've got Manoah 20th--I'm biased and would have him higher.

Pitcherlist has him at 22 (mind you it’s fantasy focused). But it makes sense. None of his pitches are crazy overwhelming - his strikeout rate is pretty middle of the road and he probably has some luck on his side last year. 20-22 range still lands you as a solid number two option on most teams or the staff ace on a weaker rotation.

Alcantara had 6 complete games last year?! Insane

Aaand Manoah is the opening day starter.

only pitchers i'd consider moving him in front of on that list are gallen (impressive year last year, but can he keep it up?) and strider (obviously electric, but short track record)

Should I get a subscription to the Athletic??!

idk if it's the case anymore now that it's owned by nyt, but you used to be able to get it for ludicrously cheap. i paid something like $24 for two years

Athletic is great imo but it might depend on your team, I don’t think all teams have writers?

Many teams dont have beat writers

Aaand Manoah is the opening day starter.

Surprised--assumed it'd be Gausman.

I'm not big on BABIP when it comes to awards voting, but it's something I'd definitely pay attention to if placing a bet on next year's Cy Young winner. Gausman, as well documented, had historically bad luck last year: highest BABIP for a starting pitcher since WWII, I think. If you believe such things tend to even out year-to-year (probably not true, it takes a few seasons), note that the Jays have improved their defense, and also that, for whatever reason, shifting seemed to hurt Gausman the first half of the season, I would think he'd be a good guy to put money on for this year's CYA.

It's free mlb.tv day for T-Mobile customers

While there’s agreement on dollars between star CF Bryan Reynolds and Pirates, a major conceptual issue has prevented a deal. Reynolds has moved a lot to try to get a deal done but there remains a disagreement on this key point. Unknown if the sides may push it past 4:10 deadline

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 30, 2023

unfortunately, just before Reynolds was going to sign, a disagreement surfaced regarding the ontological status of concepts involving abstract objects, and negotiations quickly fell apart

Quality post

apparently brian reynold's 6-year, $107 million extension is the pirates' a) first ever nine-figure deal b) first deal with a no-trade clause since 2006