Because They Might Win 110 Games: the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays Thread

They should have a thread. I hate them, of course,* but I am awestruck. Six of their nine regulars are slugging over .500, with two more just below. As I posted earlier, they have a jump on being the first team since the Robinson-led Dodgers to lead all of MLB in HR and SB. They're 39-17, and their Pythagorean also projects to 39-17--and that's including a 20-1 loss to the mighty Toronto Blue Jays.

*Toronto at the Trop, all-time: 88-136.

kevin cash: classic or dud?

(i honestly have no idea)

I was too hard on them about attendance on another thread. They should draw more than they do, but 2021 was their only terrible year, and that's easily explained by the pandemic; otherwise, they hit 2.5 million their first year, have never fallen below a million, have been between 1.5-2 million 7/25 seasons, and are headed for 1.4 million this year (but that will probably pick up). So not bad.

I thought they drew fewer than they should cos their stadium is hard to get to in traffic and there’s no public transport links? Also, fewer fans live near there.

This is from 2015 but I can’t imagine a structural issue like that has changed significantly.

There are many reasons why the Rays struggle with attendance. Many fans and residents point to the condition of the stadium, the demographics, and lack of mass transit as reason for not going. But one of the biggest and least-discussed reasons is that few people actually live near Tropicana Field. According to Maury Brown’s 2011 research on population, the Rays are dead last in population with a 30-mile radius of their ballpark.

A definite correlation exists between the population living within 30 minutes of a ballpark and the difference between weekend and weekday attendance. With only a few exceptions, teams with a 30-minute radius larger than 2 million have smaller weekend/weekday attendance differences. Teams that play in a population radius of less than 2 million, on the other hand, tend to have higher weekend/weekday differences.

Can we move them to Montreal or Portland?

that would be even further from downtown Tampa!

(xposts) As a partial explanation, sure. But I think lots of teams post-expansion have drawn lots of people under less than ideal circumstances. The Jays, pre-Skydome, played in a joke of a park, not ideally located--Toronto does have good public transport--and drew 2.5/2.5/2.8/2.6 million their last four years before moving; if they hadn't moved, I think they would have eclipsed 3 million anyway in Exhibition Stadium (pretty much full capacity every game). The Rays do better than I initially thought, but still short of what I'd expect.

I'm probably the only poster here (RIP Dr. M) who went to Candlestick and even that just awful stadium with zero public transit options they built on top of a toxic waste dump and surrounded by the most shitty urban planning you could ever think up with just miles of cars spewing exhaust into the air trying to get in and out of poorly designed parking lots.... even they would constantly sell out games (and football games as well!) which always blows my mind in retrospect.

Turner Field was also a real hassle to get to, and the neighborhood around it was not great, but I think the Braves generally drew quite well there.

46-19; still riding their weak schedule.

I have two non-baseball friends coming around (in australia) right now to watch rays-rangers, the two best teams in baseball….. weird year

Tried to convince them to support rangers, but they’re on that Rays-train apparently. This will be fun

Is this normal
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FymKw1JWAAUq8nF?format=jpg&name=medium

For most teams, probably on the extreme side of that split, but, I'm guessing, not all that unusual for a team almost playing .700.

Shouldn’t a team playing .700 be playing better than barely over .500 on the road?

I wouldn't think so, but I'm just guessing...Leaving work, curiosity will have me check a few teams when I get home.

not sure what "shouldn't" means in this context since they're doing it

i mean i guess you're asking if this is normal but are you suggesting that there is something untoward going on at home?

I’m no more suggesting that than I’m expressing my complete lack of surprise at how Justin Verlander’s looking more like he did towards the end of his Detroit days than he did in Houston!

Here are the home/road splits for all the postwar teams that won 108 games or more (because I become more and more distrustful of anything prewar), home pct. listed first. I've put them in three groups:

2023 Rays - .816/.531 (+.285)
1961 Yankees - .802/.543 (+.259)
1975 Reds - .790/.543 (+.247)

1969 Orioles - .741/.605 (+.136)
1970 Orioles - .728/.605 (+.123)
1998 Yankees - .765/.642 (+.123)
1954 Cleveland - .766/.675 (+.091)
2018 Red Sox - .704/.630 (+.074)

2022 Dodgers - .704/.667 (+.037)
1986 Mets - .679/.654 (+.025)
2001 Mariners - .704/.728 (-.024)

So: great catch, I think you're definitely on to something there. Most of the teams are in a +.100 range; the Rays have the biggest split ever, and are only one of three teams in the +.250 range. At the opposite end of the spectrum, a couple of teams with an almost even-up split, and then there's the 2001 Mariners, who somehow managed to play .728 on the road. That's astounding--and how you win 116 games.

Again, guessing, but 1) I think the Rays are playing at a real level right now (i.e., I have no reason to believe they're not as good as they look), and if that's right 2) I'm guessing their home and road records converge a bit. The '61 Yankees and '75 Reds managed to keep up their drastic splits all year, but seems unlikely. Or maybe the Rays end up winning 95-100 games, and their road record exposes a real weakness.

Related list I was able to google:

Team	                 Home record	Road record	Difference	Final record
1945 Philadelphia A's	39-35 (.527)	13-63 (.171)	   .356	        52-98 (.340)
1902 Philadelphia A's	56-17 (.767)	27-36 (.429)	   .338	        83-53 (.606)
1949 Boston Red Sox	61-16 (.792)	35-42 (.455)	   .337	        96-58 (.619)
1996 Colorado Rockies	55-26 (.679)	28-53 (.346)	   .333	        83-79 (.512)
1987 Minnesota Twins	56-25 (.691)	29-52 (.358)	   .333	        85-77 (.525)
1978 Houston Astros	50-31 (.617)	24-57 (.296)	   .321	        74-88 (.457)
1908 Philadelphia A's	46-30 (.605)	22-55 (.286)	   .319	        68-85 (.433)
1903 Chicago White Sox	41-28 (.594)	19-49 (.279)	   .315	        60-77 (.435)
1902 Chicago White Sox	48-20 (.706)	26-40 (.394)	   .312	        74-60 (.536)
1952 Boston Red Sox	50-27 (.649)	26-51 (.338)	   .311	        76-78 (.494)
1933 Chicago Cubs	56-23 (.709)	30-45 (.400)	   .309	        86-68 (.558)
2019 Chicago Cubs	41-19 (.683)	24-39 (.381)	   .302	        65-58 (.528)

(Biggest splits ever.)

I notice a lot of those teams played in parks considered (at least historically) extreme in one direction: the Red Sox, Cubs, and Rockies (and maybe the Twins) in hitter's parks, the Astros in the Dome (pitcher's park). Not sure about the old A's or White Sox.

Is there anything extreme about the Trop? Again, except that the Jays can't win there, not sure.

According to http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php ...

Tampa has faced the 6th hardest schedule in MLB thus far this season.

They are currently on pace to win 113 games.

Well fuck I totally got that wrong, they have the 6th hardest schedule remaining...

They've faced the 21st hardest schedule thus far.

Sorry, long week and I've been traveling and (insert more excuses here).

Turner Field was also a real hassle to get to, and the neighborhood around it was not great, but I think the Braves generally drew quite well there.

― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Thursday, 1 June 2023 04:40 (two weeks ago) link

Parking lots were plentiful and you could MARTA to Five Points and a bus transfer to the stadium, weirdo.

The train-to-bus route was a pain in the ass, and the parking lots were oddly located. They were most easily accessed from I-20, and unless you paid for premium parking involved a hike to the stadium.

In all, it was a great park in a shitty area.

DH'ing today:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camine000jun

.324/.384/.591 in A/AA this year, 20 years old. That's Tampa Bay for you.

They’ve been rotating the DH spot for a while, this kid has likely just been called up because Arozarena & Lowe are injured

Saw his first AB (well, I missed the first pitch), so I hope he goes on to hit 800 HR. He walked. (Second youngest Ray ever, behind B.J. Upton.)

Tropicana Field current status:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_2ZNsvn9rI

After posting about Junior Caminero's arrival just above, I promptly forgot all about him. Just turned 21, but hasn't done a whole lot yet.

(Didn't mean to make light of the seriousness of what you're posting about.)