Who will win the NL Central in 2024?

No prediction, but I want the Cardinals to be in the mix. Baseball doesn't feel right to me unless the Cardinals are contending.

Cubs or Reds, I think.

Cubs lineup better with Bellinger back. Reds have an exciting young team that could shock us. Cardinals made a few moves for pitching, most notably Sonny Gray, but the lineup doesn’t really feel that convincing to me, especially if Goldy regresses a bit more with age and Gorman is as up and down as last year. And like I said in Hot Stove, signing Brandon Crawford seems like a terrible decision. Are they the oldest team in the division?

right now my general thinking is that all of the teams except the pirates have a decent chance of winning the division.
it's entirely possible that the cardinals could have a resurgence or the brewers could win the division again, but my question about both teams is their pitching. i haven't analyzed deeply what they've added or subtracted (aside from the brewers losing burnes), but i question if either team has a strong enough rotation right now.
i'm feeling fairly optimistic about the cubs, though their rotation seems weak too - a lot depends on how good imanaga turns out to be against mlb bats.
the reds are so young, they could go either way - an orioles-esque explosion or a disappointing flop.
it's going to be interesting around the trade deadline if none of these teams have jumped ahead yet.

from fangraphs chat:

NL Central
You can make a case for any team here to win the division. Who do you see battling for the division title when the smoke clears?

Ben Clemens
I think it's a Cards/Brewers race right down to the wire with the Cubs falling just short
I think the Brewers are meaningfully underrated

Put me down for $5 on the cubbies

i'm gonna go reds

Brewers could have a lot of good young talent on the hitting side. if their pitching holds up I think they'll be good. then again I say that every year.

Reds are looking at Matt McLain having to have surgery and TJ Friedl is going to be out for a while to start the season.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Pirates in first place. Cubs in last. All is good.

👀

Paul Skenes' absolutely dominated in his 2024 debut.

3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Averaged 100.1 mph on his 4-seam. pic.twitter.com/GBKuFtSxSv

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 30, 2024

Surprised the reds got fewer votes than the pirates or cards

tbf my vote for the pirates wasn’t too serious

Nor was mine for the cards

I'm serious about Milwaukee though

the cardinals will win the nl central in 2024. i am sorry to the other teams involved, in advance - if your team wins, it will be well deserved.

this is not nl central related but thought i'd share it here. you probably already saw it:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-exciting-play-in-baseball/

what a fun thing to read through. i bet whoever thought of "pivot to video" had this kind of thing in mind

What the hell is a yellow tango?

pirates are now facing their fifth straight lefty starter to open the season

i might have been wrong to discount the pirates, they could have just as good a chance as any other team in the division

team of destiny i guess

as long as they can play the dregs of the nl east

5-0

4-0 :)

NL Central with the most wins in baseball. Bloodbath division

There Will Be Bath

It's a Long Season™ and i guess the pirates are trying to re-establish mars, pa's own daniel bednar as their closer, but . . . this was his third blown save in five appearances, he threw 14 balls and nine strikes today, and his ERA is now 12.46

he shouldn't get to face seven batters!

anyway congrats to tigers reliever shelby miller on his MLB-leading third win

Feel-good save from Bednar there

feel-bad set-up from aroldis : /

Performance wise? Second walk was a bit rough, that was as perfect edge strike for ball 4. But you'd rather walk in a run then give anything they could smoke in the middle of the plate anyways.

Man still sweats like a pig!

still plenty of time to jump on the Thrillwaukee bandwagon folks

eh…..

Thrillwaukee

i feel stained

snap back to reality

pirates have lost six straight (while being outscored 36-9), are back to .500, and now in fourth place. order restored

cardinals looking to prove last year was not a fluke

it's been pretty ugly! somehow it's been better than last year though

brewers and cubs the only teams in the division with a winning record, so much for it being a toss-up lol

Usual Reds team, when they can pitch they cannot hit. When they can hit, they rarely can pitch. Fielding is either the best or the worst…kinda bad right now.

Going to be an ugly month as many a Cincy season often goes to die with the big west coast swing to SF and LA.

masyn winn just made an incredible slide to evade getting thrown out stealing second. and the throw beat him by a mile, too. jfc. he was called out, we'll see if they overturn it. but holy moly

the nl central shortstops are fun to watch this year (elly, oneil cruz, winn)

lol remember when i said the reds would win the division, oops

i like elly, especially when he's on the basepaths, but just based on the games i've watched he seems pretty shaky defensively at ss

winn just tried to avoid another tag with the exact same move stealing second again and got called out again

i didn't see the second one! he looked safe on the first one but you could see how it wasn't conclusive i guess

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7hsfHuOHkk/?igsh=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

it has always felt like the cardinals have a cloning device to make an endless run of beefy anonymous white guys who are competent hitters. look at alec burleson, brandon crawford, and brendan donovan and tell me they aren't all the same person:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2023/07/alec-burleson-1.jpg
https://media.nbcsportsbayarea.com/2024/04/brandon-crawford-cardinals-GettyImages-2123626174.jpg?quality=85&strip=all&resize=1200%2C675
https://patabook.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Brendan-Donovan-tweets.jpg

it's like the opposite of the yankees hair policy where they're all required to have shoulder-length curly hair and shaggy beards. at least one of those guys has to be wearing a wig

brewers the only team in the division above .500, feels like the issue is less of a “competitive division” than a scrum of mediocrity

cubs in last place

Yeah, but most of the NL central is in the wild card chase, even with mediocre records. The cards are at .500 and have the second wild card spot right now.

NL is weaker than AL

was at Brewers/Reds today. the Crew had 3 errors and 5 or 6 amazing defensive plays, including a throw home to win it. Elly De La Cruz is a menace - he hit a home run and a triple, walked twice and stole two bases, also made what would've been a highlight reel leaping grab but the ball popped out of his glove

entire division is at worst 1.5 games out of a playoff spot

as are the mets lol

I still believe in my heart that the cardinals will take it, but I always think that. I suppose the trade deadline will be the Hyundai difference maker this season

kind of an important series here for the pirates (hosting st. louis) — doesn’t happen too often

willing to take losses if every cardinal who does a trump celebration gets plunked tho

god, i hope they stop that immediately. maybe someone in the clubhouse will plunk them first

I’m not surprised players have those views, I’m more so surprised that they make them so public

damn, gonna hide the news in here but the rays also suck

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/tampa-bay-rays-go-viral-for-donald-trump-themed-celebration-in-win-vs-yankees-taylor-walls

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5649601/2024/07/21/cardinals-celebration-alec-burleson-lars-nootbaar/

Carpenter denied any political motivation and explained the celebration was meant to be a team joke with Burleson.

“Burleson is a former college rapper,” Carpenter said. “He’s been carrying us at the plate. (The celebration) is the furthest thing from a political statement.”

“It’s an inside joke with (Burleson),” Carpenter said. “This isn’t a political statement by any means. I don’t know where that came from.”

Carpenter said the gestures are intended to mimic a DJ as a reference to Burleson, who shares the team lead in home runs. Burleson was a rapper in college, and his teammates consistently refer to him by his rap name, “Biscuit” in the clubhouse.

Though the celebration came into question publicly on Sunday afternoon, Carpenter said the team had been doing it dating to the end of the first half of the season.

was about to post that!

let's go cardinals

It didn’t seem to be done by anyone else so yeah, good. Not sure what Taylor Walls excuse is though

yeah, oof, i hope he's getting massive shit for that today. and to be clear, i think that "biscuit" excuse for burleson is weird and flimsy - i'm a pretty attentive cards fan and have not noticed any of the players doing anything like up until yesterday's game.

yeah with all the video available i haven't seen anybody dig up and find an example of them doing this celebration pre-trump ear

I looked at like ten of this guy’s home runs and didn’t see it, but they didn’t show much of him rounding the bases. At least they realise they’re fucking stupid I guess?

On the plus side I was listening to Adam Wainwright’s commentary on the Sox-Dodgers game on Saturday and he was raving about Bello’s changeup, talking about how electric it was in his adorable Georgia accent. “Ahhh just looooove that pitch.” ME TOO, WAINO.

didn't work, but i appreciate the pirates bringing skenes back out in the ninth

1.5 games out of the wildcard..... are the pirates buyers??????

the pirates are literally never buyers

:(

they'll pick up kevin kiermaier and consider it a job well done

this season has been unfair for the reds

https://i.imgur.com/vsYrYZ6.png

get clutcher

to me, the two "arenado plays" are 1) when he snags a grounder hooking into foul territory and throws across his body in one fluid motion and beats the runner by half a step, and 2) when he barehands an infield dribbler and sidewhips it to first. he used to pull these moves off in seemingly every game. his defensive decline is interesting to watch, because he still attempts these high-difficulty plays, but they don't seem to work as well. something goes wrong, like he'll bobble the ball instead of barehanding it cleanly, or his throw will be too wide, or it'll be too late by half a step instead of beating the runner by half a step. and each time, it's a difficult play to make so you can't really blame him. it's just that he used to make those things seem almost routine. and, even after a noticeable decline, he still grades out as an average 3B, which is kinda badass

my favorite Cub right now is Pete Crow-Armstrong. he looks like Beavis and can’t really hit but if he does get ahold of one or get on base, his speed makes him an agent of chaos. he scored an inside the park HR tonight on a misplayed line drive and rounded the bases in 14 seconds.

https://www.mlb.com/video/max-meyer-in-play-run-s-to-pete-crow-armstrong

i have been to three baseball games this year and i support this message

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/9/18/24247590/the-cardinals-should-embrace-a-rebuild

They had a multi-decade run as just about the smartest tweaking organization of my lifetime; when't the last time they did a major rebuild? Mid-late '70s?

turns out the answer to the question is the milwaukee brewers

most likely the only nl central team that will even be in the playoffs

Do you think they regret not paying Counsell

i have good news for fans of the brewers, cubs, pirates, and reds: the cardinals are not going to be very good next year either

it is because we, as a cardinals nation, have sinned

when't the last time they did a major rebuild? Mid-late '70s?

at least, yeah. although i must say i'm not as familiar with what a rebuild looked like in baseball back then. these days, it almost always seems to involve either 1) years of losing badly, saving payroll and getting several high first-rounders in a row through low finishes and trading older talent for more high-round picks, or 2) some team gets a hyper-rich trade-hungry owner who spends tons of money in one crazy offseason

remember when the pirates were 9-2?

and then gyac visited them

Do you mind

it is because we, as a cardinals nation, have sinned

impressive that the cubs are like +115 run differential vs. the cardinals for the same record

Chaim might end up as the de facto general manager soon. Mozeliak has another year left on the contract but is under pressure to leave early due to unforgivably missing the playoffs for two years in a row

Re: run differential I’m not sure what the record is but the cardinals overperformed to a legendary and mediocre degree this year

The St. Louis Cardinals have lost their way. Now they must fix their failure

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5798267/2024/09/27/st-louis-cardinals-jordan-walker-john-mozeliak
(non-paywall: https://archive.ph/UyAmp)

goldschmidt was pretty bad this year, not just overall, but especially (ESPECIALLY) in key parts of the game, when he was kozma-esque

wRC+:

no one one: 115
runners on base: 77
RISP: 55

low leverage: 104
med leverage: 100
high leverage: 62

saw a rumor the other day that the cards were looking at pete alonso...

I doubt they’d go that direction, just since they have at least 2 “outfielders”(Jordan walker and Alec burleson) who have no business anywhere except for first base or DH. plus Nolan Gorman, if he can ever figure out how to strike out less than 37% of the time.

I haven’t thought much about Goldschmidt’s fate but maybe he goes back to the dbacks for a couple years to win some games and accumulate counting stats for the hof?

It’s time for Chaim (that doesn’t rhyme)

Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt announce that Chaim Bloom will replace John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations after the 2025 season, signing a 5-year deal.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 30, 2024

sorry, what's the main pirates thread? couldn't find it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

i love that skenes' 3 comparisons are dizzy fucking dean, roger regrettable clemens, and don fucking drysdale

just imagine if they'd spent any money whatsoever in an attempt to get over .500 in a shitty division

i know this isn't fair, especially for a player who has yet to make his big league debut. but i had a good talk with cardinal nation earlier this morning and decided that all hatred toward the cardinals should be focused into a single laser pointed at

quinn matthews, SP, cardinals #2 prospect, minor league player of the year in 2024, after pitching at Stanford. he did an interview with the media as a kind of season kick-off event, one of the first times he's met the local media. "Matthews was asked about getting close to the show and his dreams of being a major leaguer by John Denton of MLB dot com..."

if you will, take a moment to consider the worst possible answer you could give. there are a lot of ways things could go wrong. here's what he said:

"...and he responded that he never really dreamed of being a big league baseball player but an Investment Banker instead and finds himself fascinated by the world of Crypto currency."

boooooooooooooooooooooo

Gotta respect the absurdity of the bit

another prospect said "matthews" is "his guy" and said that he was weird because he's a LHP. which, fair. also, he's in his early 20s, people make horrible mistakes. please be a bit

Lmao that answer is a LOT

I don’t know many Cardinals young players apart from former team USA guy Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn but the latter made a big impression on me talking about the history of black baseball players and how he felt playing at Rickwood Field last season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/brendan-donovan-masyn-winn-star-in-rickwood-field-game

minor league player of the year in 2024

ah, looks like there's both a MiLB hitter of the year and pitcher of the year! campbell won for his hitting (and also "Breakout Player of the Year")

xp and i'm with you on masyn winn. he's a big fan favorite already, fun to watch and always seems to make at least one notable or outstanding play in the field every game