2024 Awards

It's probably just about almost time to start this thread.

Judge/Ohtani/Skubal/Sale/??/??/??/??

100% on those four. (I'm wondering if the AL MVP will have the highest percentage of the same 1-2-3 ballots--Judge/Witt/Soto--ever.) Skenes should be a lock, although I know there are a few guys who would normally win ROY in the NL. AL ROY, I don't know; I don't see an obvious winner there, or a really great rookie season.

Oh--Chris Sale just might win NL Comeback Player of the Year. (A.J. Hinch for AL Manager; NL, don't know.)

Skenes should be a lock

As of today, Skenes (4.2) trails Jackson Merrill (5.1) in fWAR by almost a full fWinshare. But bRef is far kinder to Skenes, shows him at 6.0 vs Merrill's 4.3

Didn't check--good point. I think Skenes does better with bWAR. Maybe it'll be much closer than I thought...but I still think he'll win.

Which you point out...Skenes has the combined lead, so I think that'll be more than enough.

i would give the edge to Skenes tbh. it's way rarer to see a starter come up and dominate. for whatever reason there just seems to be a tougher learning curve for pitchers than hitters imho

bWAR has Merrill at 4.2, Skenes at 6.0.

Something I just noticed. We always say the 3 Cys or 3 MVPs makes you a (non-PED) HOF lock; that's true. If you look at Award Shares on Baseball Reference, 3.00 is also the dividing line for the Cy Young:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

The 13 pitchers above 3.00 are all in the Hall. Below 3.00, you've got:

14. Gerrit Cole - 2.90
15. Johan Santana - 2.72
16. Corey Kluber - 2.60
17. Felix Hernandez - 2.46
18. Jacob deGrom - 2.44
19. Bret Saberhagen - 2.20
20. David Price - 2.11

Cole will likely make the HOF, and will also likely end up over 3.00. deGrom likely would too if won another one; if not, no. Felix goes on the ballot this year--we'll see.

(The threshhold for MVP shares is lower; non-HOF players start to show up more frequently somewhere in the mid-low 2.00s.)

I'm one of those weirdoes who thinks Johan Santana should in fact be a HOFer, he's certainly more worthy than a lot of guys who stuck around longer and were able to accrue more impressive career stats. Kluber and Saberhagen and deGrom and Felix are like that too, but their careers were (or are) a bit sloppier.

I think Posnanski has really advocated for Santana, whose prime years aren't out of line with Koufax's after adjustments.

The case for Felix (or against I guess) is sort of a bummer. Dude just hit a wall at like 30. he never had the peak of a degrom or Koufax, but also didn’t have those injuries. Dude was a workhorse that just lost it when he hit his 30s. If he had just two more years tacked into the end of his 20s, he’d be a shoe in for the hall

I kinda think the Hall of Fame should lower the bar a bit to allow a few more pitchers from the last 40 years in there. And actually, I don’t think they’d be lowering the bar, as much as taking a closer look to reassess. Stieb, Brown, Santana, Hershiser, Cone…these guys were representative of the era in terms of the most dominant pitchers. They really have to consider including those peak level guys, even if their careers were not long enough to build up those massive counting stats. They’ve got to do it like the NBA. There’s room there for both Tracy McGrady, and Wilt Chamberlain.

I wonder how high Tarik Skubal will finish in MVP voting? I know nobody cares about wins, but the second most on the Tigers is 7 to his 18. He leads the team in bWAR at 6.3; Riley Greene is 5.5, then it drops to Tyler Holton at 3.0. It's kind of a rag-tag team after him. I'm going to say 5th: Judge, Witt, Soto, Ramirez, Skubal.

Just saw this pointed out:

Skubal: 18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts
Sale: 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts

Pretty amazing--certainly the closest ever for two Cy Young winners.

I know this doesn't matter but:

Skubal will continue to be a champion throughout the postseason
Sale... might be available in Spring Training?

Gold Gloves: https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-gold-glove-award-winners

Many guys there I just don't know.

I’m familiar with most of them, but not enough to know if the majority of them deserve the GG

"Many" was too strong--three or four I don't know. Nice to see Varsho win.

Wilyer led in all RF metrics for both leagues I think? Absolute stud in a huge RF. Learned that in Spanish they call outfielders “jardineros”, which was cool.

Cue the ✨Gold Glove✨ highlights. pic.twitter.com/RdwSCb9Mv1

— Red Sox (@RedSox) November 4, 2024

Henceforth known as the Golden Dumper

lmao? https://t.co/h4j8I5UTZH pic.twitter.com/Ank9aA80QX

— jack (@Jolly_Olive) November 4, 2024

Full SS list:

https://www.mlb.com/news/silver-slugger-award-finalists-2024

Vlad, easily. Alvarez-Rooker's very close; edge to Rooker, probably. Arráez will win for the batting title and 200 hits, but I'd vote for Reynolds.

Baseball Digest, still at it.

https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-luis-gil-win-2024-baseball-digest-rookie-of-the-year

it’s crazy how many fans sleep on mark vientos xp

i guess it’s pretty common for players to have a slump season after a breakout season… so let’s see

Your 2024 @officialBBWAA AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award finalists:

Colton Cowser
Luis Gil
Austin Wells pic.twitter.com/GMJfkYRzRm

— MLB (@MLB) November 11, 2024

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GcJGofsW4AAFcMy?format=jpg&name=large

Skubal obvious winner, also think you could make a case Logan Gilbert for a finalist, but! Both Lugo and Clase had incredible seasons so they both make a lot of sense.

Not that one besides me (or clemenza who hasn’t logged on yet?) cares but rest of the awards:

AL MVP:
- Judge
- Soto
- Bobby Witt Jr

NL MVP:
- Lindor
- Marte (Arizona)
- Ohtani

NL Cy Young:
- Sale
- Skenes
- Wheeler

NL ROTY:
- Churio
- Merrill
- Skenes

years like this make you wonder about the divide between the MVP stat wise (clearly Ohtani and Judge were superior than the rest of the league) and clutch people like Lindor or even Bobby Witt, who can carry/lead a team/are the heart and soul of the team. It feels like Lindor single handedly saved the Mets season multiple times, whereas if Ohtani was not on the Dodgers I don’t think they would have suffered as much? I don’t know how you don’t give the MVP to Ohtani or Judge but it’s a shame there isn’t an award for best team player or something.

Always interested in this stuff, of course. Seems like a year where every big award except AL ROY in already a cinch. I've always hated the "finalist" concept--probably one of the few things where Morbius and I agreed. I liked going into results-day not knowing who the runners-up would be.

(xpost) I think considerations like that were much more factored in 20 and 30 years ago. (Cf. Mo Vaughn vs. Albert Belle, 1995.) Analytics changed that. Something lost, something gained.

shifting from heart to mind

When it's really, really close, heart might still be a factor:

1. Greene • CIN - 6.3
2. Sale • ATL - 6.2
3. Wheeler • PHI - 6.1
4. Skenes • PIT - 5.9

So who's got the best story? Sale's, it looks like.

I'd vote Skubal for MVP no hesitation, without him the Tiggers don't make that unreal 1-200 run.

Don't @ me m8!

Sale leads all of baseball in 2024 in:
- ERA+
- FIP
- HR/9
- k/9
- ERA

He leads the National League in strikeouts.

Zack Wheeler leads the National League in:

- WHIP
- Hits/9

Paul Skenes …Did not lead the league in any of those stats, but he’s going to win a Cy probably before he’s 25. And he will be the NL’s ROTY in a really strong year.

I think Fernando is still the only guy ever to pull off ROY/Cy.

gooden did the ROY/Cy back to back

Yeah--and really, he should have beat Sutcliffe for the Cy in '84.

maybe people were invested in the novelty of the cubs actually winning something that year

Sutcliffe had a slightly better case in '87, doing as well as he did in the juiced ball year, but everyone loved that 16-1 record in '84.

Yeah no one is swiping right on an 18-10 record with a 3.68 ERA

I think the Cubs winning had something to do with it, but it was that W-L record (and ignoring his Cleveland numbers)--except for that, I'd wager Gooden had him beat in every meaningful metric, be it old or new school.

https://www.mlb.com/news/silver-slugger-award-winners-2024

Surprised Rooker beat Alvarez for AL DH. Very close, but he deserved it--thought Yordan would win on reputation.

6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 HR, 8 K

feel like it's only a matter of time until the pirates shut him down (and screw him out of a chance for the ROY)

― mookieproof, Sunday, 11 August 2024 03:11 (three months ago) link

Thankfully this didn’t happen. NL just overall higher standard this year (including the rookie class); opposite last year.

Paul Skenes season in numbers:

- number of games the Pirates played after I left Pittsburgh that he was called up: 13
- number of games I saw the Pirates lose in person: 3
- number of games that Skenes copped an L decision since his callup: 3
- number of home runs I saw Red Sox hitters (including future/former Red Sox superstar Triston Casas RIP) hit off Pirates pitching in 27 innings: 5
- number of home runs Paul Skenes gave up in 133 IP: 10

He is simply unreal to watch, his potential is immense, it’s scary to think he’s barely reached his ceiling. He’s going to be a free agent at 27!

Congratulations to Mookieproof, he’s a stud of studs.

PS: good on Gil but Wilyer would certainly have been a finalist.

Jason Bay no longer one of Immaculate Grid's 100% answers.

Holy shit - one of the oldest teams in baseball and this is just their second ROY?!

classic bucs

The award has only been around since the 1940's, but still, they *are* one of the "classic" sixteen MLB teams.

I figured there had to be some kind of travesty in the year that Bonds didn't win (he was only sixth??!?). Todd Worrell won by leading the league in saves at the height of closer-mania, but he did have 103 IP and a 2.6 WAR. Bonds also finished behind Robby Thompson, Kevin Mitchell, and Will Clark, and just ahead of John Kruk and Barry Larkin. That's one hell of a stacked rookie class.

1971 AL ROTY has got to be one of the worst winners I’ve seen

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1971.shtml#all_AL_ROY_voting

According to BR, the worst ever was Ken Hubbs (1962 NL, 0.0 WAR), followed by Eric Karros (1992 NL) and Steve Howe (1980 NL), both with 0.4 WAR. Hubbs is surprising, because he was considered a future superstar at the time, but bWAR doesn't agree. He died in a plane crash after his second full season, so we'll never know how his career would have turned out. Howe's case is more unusual, he set a rookie record for saves, had a decent ERA and played for the Dodgers. That's about it. He was a good pitcher until he torpedoed his career with cocaine, I read his autobiography when I was a kid, it was very entertaining. He claimed that he had kicked drugs when he wrote it, but I think he was busted and suspended another two times after that? And then he died in a car accident while high. Sad stuff.

That’s probably tragic rather than a bad or strange choice.

There was some other 70s rookie class (edited cos I had it open in a tab - 1976) when a finalist had a minus WAR. Obviously WAR isn’t the be all and end all, it’s not like they use it as a definitive measure anyway but …the guy was a third baseman. How do you manage negative WAR as a third baseman? The positional adjustment should juice you enough to get past that if you have an ok glove, no?

1976 roty class in the NL: truly dire, especially when you see Fidrych in the AL.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1976.shtml#all_NL_ROY_voting

Be a left handed third basemen and you’d probably get negative war by default

Chambliss went on to have a pretty good career--surprised to see he was still playing in 1988--and hit one of the most memorable postseason HRs ever, but yeah, terrible pick. No mystery, in the context of 1971, why he won instead of Bill Parsons. I'm surprised and impressed that five writers looked past Parsons' losing record and voted for him.

Pitching over 244 innings as a rookie is insane work

250 IP in the 70's wasn't a big deal, that probably wouldn't crack the top 20 in IP. But that's the reason so many promising 70's and 80's pitchers had such short careers.

You guys are peeking: Chambliss and Hubbs third- and second-last.

https://www.mlb.com/news/all-time-mlb-rookie-of-the-year-rankings-c300201298

Greater fame lay ahead in the Bronx for Chambliss, who played through a leg injury to rack up 114 hits in 111 games in his rookie campaign for Cleveland.

Sale & Skubal as expected, Skubal unanimously

I always look in on Awards Shares...Sale was already at 1.88 without having won one; with 0.87 shares today (130/150 points), he moves into the Top 15 at 2.75, just behind Cole.

I don’t know what that means

I don’t understand how wheeler pulls 4 first place cy votes from sale. By what metric? He had about 25 more IP and a better WHIP. Is that really what cost sale from being unanimous?!

suspect that some of those votes came from phillies beat writers who like wheeler

anyway no need to worry, unanimosity doesn't matter. nor will whomever doesn't vote for ichiro -- it's just posturing

Thermo -- it's just a cumulative total for the percentage of all votes you get each year. So a unanimous MVP or Cy = 1 full award share (Skubal today). Sale got 26/30 votes, 198/210 points (my calculation above is off), so that's 0.94 of a Cy share. Here are the Cy leaders before today:

1. Roger Clemens (7 wins) - 7.66
2. Randy Johnson* (5 wins) - 6.50
3. Justin Verlander (3 wins) - 5.21
4. Greg Maddux* (4 wins) - 4.92
5. Max Scherzer (3 wins) - 4.61
6. Clayton Kershaw (3 wins) - 4.58
7. Steve Carlton* (4 wins) - 4.29
8. Pedro Martinez* (3 wins) - 4.26
9. Tom Seaver* (3 wins) - 3.85
10. Jim Palmer* (3 wins) - 3.57
11. Roy Halladay* (2 wins) - 3.50
12. Tom Glavine* (2 wins) - 3.15
13. Sandy Koufax* (3 wins) - 3.05
14. Gerrit Cole (1 win) - 2.90
15. Johan Santana (2 wins) - 2.72

So Sale's now 15th at 2.82--even though's he's actually only won once, he was in the running so often, it's almost like he's won 3.

That probably locks down a Hall of Fame spot for him, I’d say. But what do I know, I think Johan Santana should be in there.

One of the oldest first-time winners:

This was an incredible year for Sale, who was named the NL’s Comeback Player of the Year last week. He was 35 years and 184 days old when the regular season concluded. The only older first-time winners are:

• Early Wynn, 1959: 39 years, 266 days
• Dennis Eckersley, 1992: 38 years, 1 day
• R.A. Dickey, 2012: 37 years, 340 days
• Warren Spahn, 1957: 36 years, 159 days
• Rollie Fingers, 1981: 35 years, 41 days

Would have expected Clemens (and maybe Randy Johnson) to be on that list.

(Older than Fingers, so should be 5th.)

Clemens, Johnson, and Verlander all did win it when they were 39+ but it wasn’t their first time

Right, that's it.

Judge and Ohtani are unanimous winners

looking at AJ and SO's similarity scores on BBREF is good for a lol

also today i learned this judge factoid:

June 9, 2010: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 31st round of the 2010 amateur draft, but did not sign.

Not much to say is there?

It turns out things going exactly as expected is rather boring.

Back in the '70s we based awards on real things like scrappiness, clutch mystique, and quiet leadership--you never knew who was gonna win!

Let's put our hands, shoulders, labrums and elbows together for Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who operated on both 2024 MVPs and Both Cy Young winners.

wow

Damn, I know what specialty I'm going into

Bloke has a perfect baseball doctor name. Some things are just meant to be

From Posnanski's post today:

"And yet, now, apparently, we’re all supposed to agree.

I so wish there would have been at least one voter who picked Bobby Witt Jr. based on the very real and viable argument that he was more important to the Royals than Aaron Judge was to the Yankees. I so wish there would have been at least one voter who picked Francisco Lindor because Shohei, as wonderful as he was, is a designated hitter, and Lindor played great shortstop defense and absolutely sparked a Mets team that was given up for dead.

I so wish that somebody—not to be contrarian or to gain attention but because they just see the game differently—would have voted for someone shocking and interesting, an Emmanuel Clase, or someone like that. But nobody did. And nobody does anymore.

Instead, these awards have become something more tired than predictable. They’ve become homogeneous. And my big issue with that is: We’re not really that smart. We haven’t suddenly figured out baseball."

Has posnanaki been reading this thread? :)

Ohtani had an amazing and historic season but I agree with the Lindor argument. Impossible to watch Lindor rise from a dreadful April and drag the team from the doldrums to the playoffs. And let’s not ignore the fact that he was helping Mark Vientos with his glovework in the offseason and his role as a leader on a team where it could easily fall apart like the 2023 Padres.

yeah as mentioned earlier in the thread, Lindor is more the heart and soul MVP, and Ohtani is the stats MVP

Willing to die on the hill that Skubal deserved Cy and MVP, farrrrrrr more valuable to the Tiggers insane Cinderella comeback year than any of their other players (position or pitching), and far more valuable proportionally to team WAR than Judge was to Yanks team WAR.

nothing stopping us from doing an ILB awards where we can all die on that hill together

🤔