How will the Juan Soto Mets deal play out?

Don't pick the boring option

I picked the first option. He's the richest owner in baseball and wants to spend his money, why not?

looking at how Trout's career has played out and Soto wasn't prime Trout soooooooooo

Same thoughts. I don't really see a place for the middle option. It's either A) he stays healthy and stays "Juan Soto" for 15 years in which case nice job, you bought a hall of fame, or B) Mike Trout but the bad part

The only thing that really matters to Steve Cohen is that Juan Soto will go into the HOF wearing a Mets cap.

You know it's not a Mets fan who started the poll, because they didn't name the poll options after Mets free agent signings (the Mike Piazza, the Carlos Beltran, the Jason Bay, etc.).

There is no way Soto is going to be able to "live up" to that contract. He's not going to be a force in his late thirties, so the contract comes down to the next 10 years. If Soto is Soto for a solid 10 years and the Mets win a WS, no one, including Steve Cohen, is going to care about the rest of the contract.

he’s gonna go down as the best hitter in mets history, idk how much that costs

ask tigers fans if they’d sign miguel cabrera again and they’d all say yes

There is no way Soto is going to be able to "live up" to that contract. He's not going to be a force in his late thirties, so the contract comes down to the next 10 years. If Soto is Soto for a solid 10 years and the Mets win a WS, no one, including Steve Cohen, is going to care about the rest of the contract.

― il lavoro mi rovina la giornata (PBKR), Monday, 9 December 2024 11:59 (three hours ago) link

i think it comes down to the opt-out year, because if they haven't hoisted the WS by then and he hasn't lived up to the contract at that point, it's going to be a rough 10 or so years after that for the mets fanbase.

he just had his best season at 26, and the qualities that make him a great hitter (all-fields approach, elite batting eye) are not likely to fade until he is much older. the issue is that by his early 30s he will def have to transition to full-time dh and then you'll be paying 50 mil a year for a dh (yankees are basically going thru this with stanton right now) but he will likely be a good, if not great hitter 8-10 years into this deal

given how long this contract is i think you also have to think about how the mets will 'grow' into this contract. yes it feels like an extreme overpay now but average payrolls have only been increasing. the contract sort of assumes that baseball revenue as a whole is gonna continue trending up (which is not at all a safe assumption btw, given the consternation over declining viewership numbers - but maybe manfred's plan to nationalize broadcasts and get rid of RSNs will work).

according to this website (i haven't done any fact checking) the total payroll in 2024 was $4.9 billion. in 2014, it was $3.45 billion - so an increase of 42% over 10 years. in 2024, the QO was $21 million; in 2014 it was $15.3 million (37% increase).

the CBT has increased too - in 2014 it was $189 million, in 2024 it was $237 million (25% increase)

so yeah, assuming MLB keeps growing as a whole, the AAV of this is gonna normalize eventually. think question for me is how soon will we see $70M AAV for a non-pitcher (i.e. the shohei AAV)

i'm not familiar enough with how AAV is calculated for CBT purposes but i'm seeing some reports that due to the $75M signing bonus the AAV for the first 5 years is $61M while the last 10 is $46M, which makes intuitive sense to me but again not sure how it's calculated for CBT...

also interesting to me is what the league will look like in 5 years when he has his opt-out. will the $4M escalator be enough to keep him? or will he have surpassed the AAV stat-wise and be able to command even more on the open market?

zips projects that he will hit 370 homers and accrue 65 war during his contract. 765 mil is probably only a slight overpay for 65 wins

65 WAR on top of the 36 he has already!

sort of related to ZIPS if/when expansion happens there's going to be the pitching dilution for a few years where offense goes up*

*i'm pretty sure that's what happens and I will not be looking up proof of this.

the last expansion era was also the steroid era so who knows

plus ball fuckery

doing a bit more reading (1, 2):

-the current macroeconomic environment of high interest rates favors long contracts over short ones because the net present value of the contracts doesn't increase by that much by adding years compared to when interest rates were lower
-adding years to the contract lowers the AAV which is beneficial for teams that expect to spend at or above the luxury tax threshold ever year (given how punitive the tax is)

so yeah everybody's right to point out that the AAV of these contracts doesn't make sense when the player is in their twilight years. but it does make sense from a luxury tax threshold and roster flexibility. see also the reports that cashman was trying to keep the AAV of the contract at $47.5M (hence giving 760 over 16 years instead of trying to match cohen at 15 years)

related is the point i'm trying to make above - the growing size of the overall pie also means that the AAV hit in a player's twilight years isn't as extreme assuming the size of the overall pie has grown

on top of that, add in steve cohen's ability to wield 'fuck you money' into the mix...

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

the important thing to remember is that he won't have a serious, career altering injury during the next 15 years, and definitely not during the next six or seven years. since he won't, i think this is a great deal for the mets

that’s quite a bit of salt you got there in your teeth

although not signing Carlos Correa does seems like a good move in hindsight

Nor will he lose motivation and become merely average.