The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43902038/vladimir-guerrero-jr-blue-jays-fail-reach-contract-extension

Guerrero, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, said he had set a deadline of 9 p.m. Monday, but the last call from the Blue Jays came at 10:30 p.m. When asked if the team was close to what he was asking, Guerrero simply said, "No."

They could have signed him to a Tatis Jr.-like extension years ago. After striking out on the big-time free agents like Soto and Ohtani, they come crawling back to Vladdy with a lowball offer in his walk year. Well played, Jays front office!!

I don’t really know if that’s true, he doesn’t need the money and he wouldn’t have signed coming off a down season. If he turned down the guts of half a billion, what are you going to do? He’s very very good but he’s a first baseman and we just saw the market laugh at Pete Alonso for asking for a much smaller sum of money - and Pete is older but he’s also a power hitter in a defensively unimportant role.

You can dissect things and engage in both sides-isms, but the big picture is this: they signed him at age 16 and spent years grooming him to be the cornerstone of the franchise, and they're not even *remotely close* to signing him.

I might amend that verb choice there lmao

Haha point taken

Where are you seeing this was a low ball offer?

@KeeganMatheson
Mark Shapiro on the #BlueJays’ negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr:
“We were emotional. We did value the player deeply, and even went past our value because we cared so deeply about him and wanted to have him here.”

what an off-putting statement

Lol i’d tell the first journo i could find that i want a trade if i heard that

“We have tenses in spanish dawg…”

I'm assuming it was a low ball offer due to the reactions of the two sides. It's clear they're nowhere close to an agreement.

i'm not a fan of this front office, but i'm not ready to put the blame 100% on them just yet. ortiz was saying Vlad should be getting 3 years, $585m; which seems crazy to me (which obviously doesn't mean thats what vladdy was asking for, but if those are the numbers some people are putting in his ear, that's not good).

i do agree they had a long time to lock him and should have done so a long time ago. i would love it if he were to be a Jay for life – but he's also been frustrating to watch at times too (the base running errors especially). and sorry to both sides this, but i wouldn't be surprised at all if that was the case. i just can't see the FO, knowing their jobs are on the line, putting all that work into guys like Soto and Ohtani etc and then phoning in the Vlad negotiations.

If they couldn't (or wouldn't) sign him then they could have traded him like the Nationals did with Soto. Letting him walk for essentially nothing (we're not there yet, but it could happen) is indefensible and will lead to firings (although Atkins and Shapiro's contracts are nearly up too). I'm not saying it's an easy situation, but these are franchise-altering decisions and it's up to the FO to make them. What's their plan? I haven't a clue.

I also think it's disingenuous of the FO to not sign him when he was underachieving (because it was too risky) and to not sign him once he breaks out again (because he's asking for too much money). There's always risk involved, you can't play "wait and see" forever. And if you don't want to take the risk, you trade him and move the club in a different direction.

Feels like given the money they spent they should see how the season plays out.

especially with our anemic minor league system... if Vlad and Bo are gone, we have an expensive pitching staff / outfield and not much to fill the shoes in 2026. they got some decent fliers at least years trade deadline, but them and guys like Barger, Orelvis and Roden aren't going to be enough.

xpost

i mean - who's to say Vlad was open to discussing an extension after his off years tho

3 years, $585m; which seems crazy to me

i assume you/they meant 13 years? that's obviously a ton of money, especially considering his body type and defensive limitations, but $45m/yr doesn't seem beyond the pale in this day and age

“ There's always risk involved, you can't play "wait and see" forever. And if you don't want to take the risk, you trade him and move the club in a different direction.”

Skywrite this over camden yards

Rogers can definitely afford that money without blinking but I don’t really get why they spent all those…loonies…? on the stadium and not the marquee star to poster it with.

ya 13 years. but paying a guy that much until he's 38 – an inconsistently decent-to-great hitter who routinely makes me cringe at horrible base-running blunders. even with rogers stupid money, i'm not making that commitment.

anyways, fun fact: i am very good friends with the guy who prints those posters! and yes, he has given me 6 foot vinyl banners, one of which hands from my deck (yes i am a giant dork)

the miguel cabrera deal got pretty ugly at the end, but i'd be surprised if many tigers fans regretted it. vlad's top similar batter through age 25 is eddie murray, and there just aren't too many guys like that around. picking up a few wins cheaply on the margins won't help if there's no foundation

(tbf, his no. 3 similar batter through age 25 is prince fielder, so yeah it's a risk!)

I'm still halfway. 1) Secretly happy that someone else is going to overpay him wildly for a couple of good-to-great seasons followed by a prolonged decline and all the frustration TT talks about; 2) embarrassed by how badly Shapiro and Atkins have handled everything--"it's disingenuous of the FO to not sign him when he was underachieving (because it was too risky) and to not sign him once he breaks out again (because he's asking for too much money)" is exactly right. I can throw up my hands and say I don't know what to do, but I'm not management.

Apparently offered Vlad half a billion dollars!

Are you sure? First thing my bowling friend told me tonight was he asked for that much.

Heyman is saying that was the offer. So grain of salt

You’re both right but the difference is deferrals vs present value - he wants present value and Jays offered deferrals

The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays.

Fucking hyped the Roden might crack the team!

He has cracked the team!

Had to look him up. That's some kind of spring, if you put any stock in that (did get him on the roster): .423/.556/.731.

He was taken 3rd overall but went very much under the radar for a while. but slashing .298/.407/.453/.860 over his minor league career, people started taking note some time in 2023

I watched some of his spring training highlights, he looked really good from what I saw. Quick, compact swing. Jays outfielders were awful on offense last year, Roden can only improve things.

Third HR for Giménez tonight.

Best cleanup hitter of our lifetime

I too was in first place three days ago (in the ILX fantasy league) and have fallen to sixth before blinking. So keeping the bandwagon at arm's length for a little longer.

Only the 10th game, but Toronto seems to be settling into something close to what they've been the past couple of years: weak offense (under four runs per game), relying on winning close games through pitching and defense. They're got a winning record and a negative run differential. This doesn't bode well. Their starters are good, but the '71 Orioles they're not; they look to have a better closer this year, but it's not enough.

Guess the thread needs a new name.
When I watched him weakly ground out to end the game today, somehow I knew. I knew this guy was about to get half a billion dollars.

Congrats to all.

bless

There you go. Good work from Shatkins.

The ability to strike a deal is the latest blow to those who want to complain about the Jays

lol Thermo. I'm definitely in that kinda headspace on this

lol thermo XD

The ability to strike a deal is the latest blow to those who want to complain about the Jays

Have you never heard Joe Walsh's "Life's Been Good"?

Was in Toronto today, so got two hours of Blair & Barker on the way home. Fans calling in, very excited. The best thing about it, I think, is what one of their guests said: you don't spend this much money unless you're ready to spend more money. So it's a big first step, but only--hopefully--a first step.

I wonder how long it is till there will be enough contenders to create a “worst contract out of these $500 million contracts” poll

Link may or may not work (Facebook): Jeff Blair from this afternoon's show.

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1313033066439396

(Kevin Barker unusually subdued--his schtick is usually unbearable.)

4-4 for Springer, now .455 with 8 RBI.

and tied for 2nd on the team in Home Runs! ;)

First place at 7-5!

Vintage Schneider: Varland starting, Santander back in right field, Barger at third. Definitely what you'd designate as a player's manager.

I hate Santander in the field so much. There’s no way we’re not better off with springer out there.

Had the Fan on for four hours today driving to and from Toronto--couldn't get enough of Vlad and Ortiz (or references to it: Leafs Talk began with the guy saying "And daaaaaaaa Canadiens lose"). Blair pointed out that Vlad will be living that down for the duration of his contract, but today, worth it.

I'm amazed that the Jays got through that series without needing a closer. Hoffman pitched 2.1 innings, wasn't particularly effective--two hits, a walk, and a run--and had to deal with exactly two crucial AB, when he ended the 8th last night. That can't possibly happen again, and that's still the elephant in the room.

https://athlonsports.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/blue-jays-facing-anthony-santander-decision-after-bo-bichette-update

Right now, I would take Straw over Santander without a second's hesitation.

we don't need Bruihl

absolute shit show trying to get tickets to the alcs

Assume Max swaps out for Bruihl, and maybe Bassitt for Nance. Good luck--content to watch at home.

absolute shit show trying to get tickets to the alcs

Yeah, I tried getting tickets to the second game yesterday morning, I got into the "waiting room" on ticketmaster before the sale started, ended up being 35000th in line, by the time I got to buy tickets, all tickets were obviously already sold and there were already a bunch of resale tickets available. I feel like if there weren't so many people buying tickets just to resell I would have had a shot. Fucking Ticketmaster.

Buck thinks Santander had a good series. His bar sure must have been low--the deep counts were useful, and good swings are nice as far at they go, but good is pretty generous.

Things you were shockingly old when you re-learned (you used to know these things, then a lot of time passed and you forgot): caring about the fate of a baseball team is incredibly time-consuming. I'm almost at my saturation point before the ALCS has even started.

Will Bassitt pitch again or is he donezo?

Slated to pitch the bottom of the 17th for the Tigers.

(Real answer: probably yes, I think.)

A lot of posts in this thread haven't aged well (especially Feb-Apr).

I can laugh about those posts now but I'm glad we captured our feelings as they were. What a ride this has been.

Start with the thread title! I probably win honours as Mr. Negativity--towards Vlad, Hoffman, Schneider, front office, on and on. So utterly improbable where we are.

Joey Bats is milling about the field, talking up everyone. And love listening to Pillar in the booth.

Possibly a controversial opinion - Springers home run was the second biggest home run in Jays history.

Ahead of bat flip but behind Joe Carter

ya. thinking is:

Joe Carter – home run wins the world series.
Springer Dinger – puts the Jays ahead in the decisive ALCS game, sending them to the world series.
The Bat flip – put the Jays ahead in the decisive ALDS game, sending them to the ALCS.
Alomar - tied game in the 9th, allowing them to go on to win ALCS game 4, allowing them to go onto the world series.
Sprague - put the Jays ahead in game 2 of the world series, allowing them go on to win it all
Edwin - walked off the single-game wild card game, allowing them to go onto the ALDS

can't argue, based on stakes/results

but man, the bat flip (and the ridiculousness of that entire inning)

I always make the same point. Carter's was indisputably the most important in terms of what the team gained from it: a WS win, the second the ball left the ballpark, whereas all the others were events along a path to a potential WS win. They're prelude, Carter's is the thing itself.

But if the Jays had lost the Carter game, it wasn't the end of the world--they would have come back the next day with another chance to win the WS. And it would have been their second one in a row; to have not won the WS that year would have been disappointing, of course, but we'd just won one.

For pure catharsis, Bautista and now Springer stand alone at the top for me. If they lose those games, that's it--end of season, no WS. And 2015 and 2025 happen after many years of frustration. I totally get putting Carter at the top, but I know I my own reaction to Bautista and Springer was something more visceral, something deeper than just jubilation.

(And yes, there indeed was no WS in 2015--but that doesn't change anything for me.)

Alomar's and Sprague's (and you could almost throw in Gimenez's HR in G3 and G4) were ones that happened at a point where it felt like, "That's it, another year down the drain"--they turned series around. I don't know what Edwin's was: thrilling, for sure, but different from all the others. (Winning a WC playoff is still a long way from a WS, plus 2016 was still in the shadow of Bautista's.)

Those are good points clemenza - in terms of catharsis Bautista maybe tops

I pretty much agree with all this. FWIW, according to B-R's championship win probability added, Springer's HR was the most important hit in championship series history. That HR alone added 19.73% to the Jays' probability of winning the WS. Bautista's HR was worth "only" 8.64% (earlier round in the playoffs, and in a tie game). Sprague's HR, perhaps surprisingly, was 21.28%. Carter -- 30.28%.

But if we're talking about "catharsis", then Bautista is ahead of Springer, at least for now, for me. The 22-year wait, the comeback from 2-0 down in the series, and that G5 was so intense and so crazy. There's a reason non-Jays fans still remember it.

I think the M's-Jays series was basically a coin flip. If the Jays had lost, it would have been disappointing for sure, but the M's are great, they were peaking at the right time, had their own demons to slay, etc. However, I did NOT want to lose to the Rangers.

for catharsis, the Bat flip was def huge. i'd put Alomar's home run off Eckersley high up there too on the catharsometer.
that was a jays team that seem doomed to fall short, no matter how good they were in the regular season. 85, 87, 91 - all great teams that just could not advance at all in the playoffs. and then going up against Oakland, that had *dominated* the league 3 of the last 4 years; and here's Eckersley, having his cy young season, about to secure game two for them... the odds felt insurmountable. and then Alomar hits that ball out. it's hard to explain how it felt at the time. like announcing they were not going to just lie down this time; that they could get to the best of the best and if they could get to Eckersley in 1992, they could do anything.

One other thing that has absolute zero bearing on anything but I think means something in how you experience the moment: the home run itself. Carter's HR was like a preview of McGwire's 62nd: weirdly flat and just cleared the LF fence. Springer's and (especially) Bautista's were mammoth. I don't know how long Bautista's was--I've certainly seen longer HR, from Reggie in the '71 ASG to Shohei last week. But it felt like the most violent HR I'd ever seen. Something about the swing Bautista put on the ball, and the way he froze for a split-second before flipping the bat.

Probably the most bad-ass AB I’ve ever seen

Carter -- 30.28%.

I guess that's a before-and-after calculation? Jays were 100% after Carter's HR, and the 30.28% is the difference between what they were before. That seems a little off to me, if that's the case; they were 70% to win before the HR? Down 6-5 in the 9th, runners on first and second, one out, up 3-2 in the series...yeah, maybe that's reasonable. Pretty decent chance to at least tie, and G7 would have been at home.

Yes, that's correct (check the series win probability chart).

Thermo -- I always associate Alomar's HR with a comeback too. In fact, they were up 2-1 in the series, and his HR capped a five run comeback in the late innings. But it only tied the game, they went on to win in extras.

For the longest time, I thought they were trailing 2-1 in the series and Alomar saved them from going down 3-1. In fact, they went up 3-1 after that game. Instead of the series being tied, with momentum swinging back to A's (who were a juggernaut in those days), the Jays took a commanding 3-1 lead and rode that momentum into the WS.

OTOH, Sprague's HR took them from 4-3 down to a 5-4 lead. Rather than going down 2-0 in the series to the Braves,after Henke shut the door in the bottom of the inning, the series was tied. So Sprague's HR was a huge swing, I think it's not appreciated as much as the others because he was sort of a duck and didn't really like playing in Toronto.
thw series was tied,

Sorry for the garbled text, I shouldn't write long posts on my phone.

I'll check when I figure out how, but I've got to believe the two Gimenez HRs score well by this metric--they were very much in danger of going down 3-0 when he hit the first one.

Not so much, they were down two games, so one HR isn't enough to flip the series. Plus it was only the third inning and it tied the game -- winning G3 was far from guaranteed.

Don't have a good 2026 thread title, so I'll post here...Cease's 2025 does indeed look better the more you investigate. 1) There's a piece on mlb.com that says "only seven pitchers received less fielding support than he did," and 2) the same piece highlights an early-season start where he gave up nine runs in four innings. Take away that, and two other starts where he gave up six, and his ERA was 3.76 in his other 29 starts. Still not great, but he gave up two or fewer runs in 17/32 starts.

"making a *Caese* for the 2026 Blue Jays"?!

"Dylan's Best Since Blood on the the Tracks!" The 2026 Toronto Blue Jays"...Too rock-criticky, I know.

The Freewheelin' Cease, Dylan

Pessimist Ceasefire: Your 2026 bloody amazing Blue Jays who can do no wrong, ever

Tempted to say that the Dodgers are teaching teams one way to approach the post-season--above all else, make sure your top four starters are healthy and ready to go just in time for the playoffs--but, uh, that only works if you have the payroll to assemble these four starters.
― clemenza, Tuesday, October 28, 2025

yeah I'm not convinced there's a lesson there, kind of reminds me of when Miami assembled the Heatles and the whole league was like "we'll just put together our own Big 3 and fill in the blanks" - turns out one major major piece of the puzzle was having LeBron James
― frogbs, Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Jays don't have Dodger money, but they do have a lot--they may indeed be trying a slightly downscale version of this.

Thought this was great:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9mEqISxTzY

Yeah, I loved that. I'll probably donate too!

GO BACK TO YOUR SUNSHINE AND TRAFFIC!

(Toronto being a city where traffic is completely a non-issue, of course.)

Kent is the now the 13th Jay in the HOF--eight via the writers, five via the VC:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/hof.shtml

He started his career here for all of five months in '92, but in a roundabout way, one of the most important players in franchise history: he was more or less traded straight up to the Mets for David Cone (plus Ryan Thompson, the player-to-be-named-later), easily the most important move in the season the Jays finally won a WS.

May buy 50 of these and set them on fire like they did with Beatles records.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqKNPfPq/keychain.jpg

I'd say unbelievable, but he's actually only 33.

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/article/report-ex-jay-sanchez-drawing-interest-from-mlb-teams/

I'll say it anyway--unbelievable. (I saw him pitch in Buffalo two summers ago, and I don't think he threw a pitch over 90.)

https://i.postimg.cc/0ypXspnY/rodney.jpg https://i.postimg.cc/W345gxv7/odds.jpg

90% kidding.

Too small...Fangraphs has Jays at 4.8% to win the Series, sixth behind the Dodgers, Braves, Mariners, Mets, and Yankees.

When I saw a FB post from Dan Schulman referring to Buck in the past tense, thought for sure he'd died. Happily, just retired.

Was going to post about that!

But since I can’t, here’s Blake Snell having some weird meltdown on twitch about the WS?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/s/mWy9UJOu9I

In case you doubt this is real, he is known for saying dumb shit on his Twitch account:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io-MtoXIJAE

A sixty year career, more than forty years with the Blue Jays, I hope Buck enjoys retirement (and continued good health).

They've got to put him on the wall this year (ahead of Edwin, even)*...(xpost) Snell's WS interviews that I saw were so smarmy/condescending. Between him, throwing at the Jays, Ohtani's extra rest between innings in G7, and sore-loser bitterness, I learned to hate the Dodgers just like everyone else.

*Even though Margaret Atwood also is from Toronto, being put "on the wall" if you're a Jay is a good thing.

Nice farewell tweet from Chris Bassitt.