Logjam on the Left Side: Bogaerts, Bregman, Chapman, Correa, Seager, and Turner

Bogaerts - 193 HR, .288/.351/.447, 114 OPS+
Bregman - 205 HR, .274/.366/.486, 133 OPS+
Chapman - 198 HR, .241/.330/.461, 119 OPS+
Correa - 194 HR, .275/.352/.465, 124 OPS+
Seager - 215 HR, .289/.362/.509, 136 OPS+
Turner - 182 HR, .295/.348/.477, 120 OPS+

"Left off...Lindor/Chapman"--that should read Lindor/Ramirez.

Lots of impressive bWAR per 162 there but none of these guys strike me as being more likely to make the Hall than not, objectively speaking. Bogaerts seems like the only clear “no” though.

Better chance at zero than two, probably...Because of his post-season resume, I'd lean towards Seager, although Bregman/Correa have the better age/WAR combinations. Bregman staying healthy and an MVP candidate might have pegged him as the clear leader.

Interesting group of players ... if I was going to bet on one of them it would be Seager. I can see a clear path for Bregman to get there too, but the others feel like longshots.

Arenado should be in this poll I think

I did check him, but he's 34 and I wanted to stick to that 30-32 age bracket. (He's probably basically in already anyway.)

I think a Machado/Ramirez/Arenado greater-career? poll would be good. They're all 32-34 and sit 8/10/11 on the active WAR list (broken up by Judge at #9), with a range of 61.3-56.6.

And I'm waiting for Verlander/Kershaw/Scherzer to all call it a day--that'll make an excellent poll.

Fun fact is that Arenado and Chapman both went to the same high school (as did Skenes, who might very well be an incredible 3B if he’d become a two way player?)

Geez, only two-year age difference--two greatest third-base gloves of their generation might have been there at the same time.

I hope the infield coach works for a big league team now

I looked it up…they both played on the 2009 team. Chapman was one of the youngest players.

That is genuinely amazing, I'd say--not quite Griffey/Musial level, but pretty close.

This is the team: the 2008-09 El Toro Chargers.

https://www.maxpreps.com/ca/lake-forest/el-toro-chargers/baseball/08-09/roster/

Overall record 22-6, ranked 32nd nationally.

jaws rankings:

3B
18. machado (61.3 bWAR), 33yo
19. arenado (57.6), 34
20. longoria (58.9), ret.
21. j. ramirez (56.6), 32
34. bregman (42.9), 31
37. chapman (41.0), 32

only guys *not* in the hall higher than machado through ramirez are graig nettles, ken boyer, buddy bell and sal bando

SS
19. lindor (52.6), 31
31. correa (44.3), 30
38. bogaerts (41.8), 32
42. seager (40.7), 31
52. turner (39.3), 32

machado, ramirez and lindor seem very solid, arenado maybe slightly less so. not too sanguine about any of the others

I'm fairly confident that Machado, Arenado, Ramirez, and Lindor are all headed to the Hall. They're almost the exact opposite of the six guys being polled here; one of these six may make it, and, for reasons not clear right now, one of the other four may not make it.

the imaginary player named “fully healthy corey seager” would probably make the hall of fame

i guess there’s a chance of one of these guys maintaining a pretty high level of play for 7-8 more years a la beltre or beltran (not brendan belt). i guess bregman would be the most likely of these guys to do that? idk

brandon belt deserves better than this!

he put up 2.0 bWAR with a 135 OPS+ in 103 games in 2023 and it's honestly fucked up that no one found a place for him last year

Do teams ever keep players at 3B anymore after they're hitting declines enough? The least likely of the six to me is Chapman, conceding my bias (he drove me up the wall while in Toronto). I'm reading the Earl Weaver biography, and the Orioles kept Robinson at third five seasons after he was below league average as a hitter--extreme example. Four of these guys hit enough that they could hang on as DHs, or maybe at first. Can't see that for Chapman. (Not much chance for Boagerts either.)

i don't think chapman/bogaerts/turner have enough power

bregman/seager *might* if things go perfectly

Do teams ever keep players at 3B anymore after they're hitting declines enough?

ke'bryan hayes joke goes here

Didn't Belt want to retire after 2023? I think he announced toward the end of that season that he wasn't looking to play in 2024.

No exact opposite of that. He very much wanted to play.

I'm fairly confident that Machado, Arenado, Ramirez, and Lindor are all headed to the Hall.

Seems about right. Arenado does seem like the least likely to get in quickly, just because he’s the player with cratering production (not so good in 2020, vv good in ‘21-‘22, pure decline phase since.) meanwhile Ramirez is having yet another season that’s in the running for his best one yet, while Machado and Lindor are just carrying on consistently.

Arenado might also have a minor bit of resistance because of Coors...but not much; he had at least one great year with the bat in St. Louis.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

gonna say none, but i give it an outside chance that Turner or Seager have a Beltre-esq back half of their careers and are serviceable until they hit 40 and get in.

Voted one--either Seagar or Bregman, but not both. If Bregman were to place high on the MVP ballot this year and Boston were to pull of a WS win, that'd bolster his chances immeasurably...although I guess he still maybe has bang-a-gong to deal with.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Would be interested in who the "three" voter had in mind...If everything broke perfectly, could happen.

Bogaerts 19-20 in stolen base attempts so far in his age 32 season

Nice article about Correa learning to play 3B in the Athletic today

Carlos Correa is a baseball connoisseur. Conversations with him often include offhand mentions of advanced metrics or other minutiae he’s gleaned from watching players across the league. Baseball’s best third basemen stay low before a pitch is released, Correa has learned, allowing them ample time to gauge a ground ball’s trajectory.

“At shortstop,” Correa explained last week, “you have to stand taller because you have to move more.”

For two years, Correa sought a switch to third base. On the day he secured it, Correa opened YouTube and started studying. He searched for highlights of the three players who pass a Platinum Glover’s eye test, those who will assist a lifelong shortstop in this long-awaited transition.

Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman and Manny Machado “look like they are the best at the position,” according to Correa. The 17 Gold Gloves and eight Platinum Gloves among them support the claim. Each stays low, snares everything in sight and has set a standard for third base defense during the modern era.

He's been killing it since his return...had forgotten all about his free-agency circus.