“Throw to first, Bregman” - Hot Stove 2025/26

With a lockout pending you’d have to think this is the last best chance for some of these free agents to make serious $ on long term contracts.

Notable dates

November 6: contract option decisions
November 6: Deadline to make the qualifying offer
Same day: free agency begins
November 18: qualifying offer decisions
November 21: non tender deadline
December 7-10: winter meetings

is there a thread for the awards? some people in Toronto are a little salty about the gold glove outcomes.

Search “2025 awards”

i suppose that would have done it, yes

Opt outs so far:

Alex Bregman
Robert Suarez
Lucas Giolito (apparently the Sox declined their side of the mutual option first?)
Ha-Seong Kim
Brandon Woodruff
Cody Bellinger
Michael King
Edwin Diaz
Pete Alonso
Danny Jansen

Options declined by team

Shota Imanaga
Jorge Mateo

Opt ins

Tyler O’Neill
Lourdes Gurriel Jr
AJ Minter
Wandy Peralta

Club options picked up

Luis Robert Jr
Freddy Peralta

Walt Weiss is the new ATL manager.

that's a name i haven't seen in a while!

didn't realize he'd ended his career there

enjoying the riff on the ILH thread title

I had to differentiate it a little cos it would annoy me if I was clicking into the Bregman one when I was after Bigman. Shout out to ILH guys

i guess $20m is no longer a great deal of money but that still seems like a lot to keep a 28yo luis robert and his career .313 OBP around

I'm in Toronto today, so caught some of the FAN. I was shaking my head as they went through all the reasons they believe Bo will stay. Didn't disagree with any of them--of course it makes sense for him to stay, and of course it makes sense for the Jays to keep him here. But it's like they'd never gone through this before: logic, loyalty, friendships, park factors, position, it all goes out the window (or at least it does with the great majority of players). If the Blue Jays offer him more money than anyone else is willing to, he'll stay. If they don't, he won't.

― clemenza, Tuesday, November 4, 2025 5:06 PM (three hours ago)

Maybe we should take this discussion to the Hot Stove thread ... IMO, Bo is as good as gone. He's a valuable player but I think he wants Devers/Bogaerts money and starting pitching is a more pressing need. If Santander and Giminez bounce back, and we get a full season from Barger (including some expected improvement), Bo's offense can be replaced rather easily within the current roster. There aren't any premium starting pitchers on the market, which means someone is going to overpay for a Dylan Cease or Ranger Suarez, and that someone probably should be us.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, November 4, 2025 5:34 PM (two hours ago)

What about Imanaga--is he worth pursuing? Some of his peripherals are good, but he took a step back this year, is 32, and gives up a lot of HR.

i'd have no issue with them resigning Biebs

bieber opting in!

Holy shit

Did not expect

Salvador Perez back to the Royals on a two year deal. No big surprise.

Glad to hear that Bieber opted in!

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-2025-26-kyle-tucker-dylan-cease-bo-bichette-alex-bregman-headline-top-100-list

craig stammen is the new padres manager
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6784440/2025/11/06/padres-name-craig-stammen-manager/

Woah! Feels like he just a reliever for them a few weeks ago!!

i’m wondering if adam ottavino will get some sort of coaching or f/o job. he’s been doing a ton of content for his youtube and been vocal about wanting to be a coach

Paul DePodesta returns as head of baseball ops for the Rockies!

He interviewed with the Rockies for the POBO job recently

Peter Brand in the house

Referring to Bichette: "He's been important," Atkins said. "We will be in his market."

That's about as half-assed as it gets, isn't it?

Pretty on brand for these guys.

"I, for one, would welcome the return of our SS/2B overlord."

Wow can’t wait for an entire offseason of posts like the last three

Sarcasm hurts my feelings.

anyways... Kyle Hendricks is retiring. figured he'd still have a market as #5 inning eater kind of guy so was kind of surprised.

Oh, I guess he announced this at the start of the season

At the risk of raising Michael Gill's ire: Jon Morosi tweets that "Early in free agency, the majority of interest in Bo Bichette is at shortstop. Other teams with incumbent shortstops have expressed interest in him at second base or third base." The idea that Bo could play third for anyone seems far-fetched, to say the least--the idea of moving him to second is based on his arm, no?

I watched a lot of Hendricks' starts this past year and he really had to be just about perfect to pull off a good game.

"teams are interested in bo playing third" sounds like something an agent tells a reporter to expand the perception of the market for bo's services

dads for sale?

we gonna try and pool our resources for this opportunity?!

also, 6 hours left to get your picks in for the MLB Trade Rumors free agent contest, for those whom celebrate

I’m only investing in a Padres purchase if they bring back those City Connects

https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2022/0701/r1031129_1296x729_16-9.jpg

i second the motion. i have about 10k in an education fund for my soon-to-be-uneducated children to put towards this venture

Your children can be educated in the NL West

I would also like to put some money into this: there's a few interdivisional trades I'd like to pursue but we can get to that when we get to that

I think we could get a lot of value trading Tatis and I like the look of the Dodger's farm system

Josh Naylor - Mariners 5 years.

canadian excellence

Makes me 1-for-1 in the MLBTR contest. Mariners made it sound like they were really going to make resigning him a priority. Tho 5 years feels on the long side for a guy that’s best season before 2025 resulted in a 2.3 WAR.

War doesn't account for vibes though

Big Naylor fan. Intangibles are strong

Isn’t that what VORP is? Vibes over replacement… um…person?

Big Naylor fan. Intangibles are strong

u troll

The Orioles trade Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward.

really?

Quite honestly Santander was not a good signing, not because he got injured but because he’s basically a two true outcomes guy whose obp has been falling off a cliff for a while. His floor is a lot lower than Okamoto’s.

totes agree. but you know how teams are when they spend money on a guy.
i think after missing out on Ohtani and Soto and doing so bad in '24, they were desperate to get whatever bat they could manage.

I get that but the size of the Cease contract and how much they’ve spent makes me think that subsidising or DFAing Santander might not be out of the question? They are a desirable destination and they’re definitely going all out.

Kazuma Okamoto’s Jays deal: $60M, 4 years - that is a good deal if he’s half the player he’s cracked up to be

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0KJ2TGQ/IMG-7160.jpg

I'm still bullish on Santander. He's never been an OBP guy. Their lack of a true power bat other than Vlad became a weak spot in the playoffs. Everybody crushed the ball in the ALDS vs the Yankees, but they were outhomered by Seattle and LA. They had about five chances to win or tie G6 or G7 if somebody could have hit a deep fly ball. I heard that Okamoto probably won't be a 30-HR guy in MLB, but Bichette may not be back and Springer will certainly decline, this signing definitely helps offset that.

after how little Murakami (2yr/$34M) and Imai (3yr/$54M) went for, I am pretty surprised the Jays committed this much.

Welcome new Blue Jay I'd never heard of till today.

edward cabrera to the cubs for three prospects (including owen caissie)

caissie swings and misses a lot so it's possible he's a bust, but to get a top 50 hitting prospect for a pitcher w/ an extremely minimal track record of real success and a very long history of injuries feels like a pretty great swap

cabrera is nasty tho and it was really fun to watch him last season

Cabrera also adds some youth to the Cubs rotation but higher risk as Jordan says

a bullpen catcher did an AMA and this is amazing

https://i.postimg.cc/4xRmyMqb/Screenshot-2026-01-08-at-3-40-40-PM.png

Anyone want guess who the strategic pooper is?!
I would put money on Bauer if he was still pitching

Could be literally any SP, most of them have “quirks”.

Maybe it wasn't a starter????

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-use-reason-to-deduce-when-archie-bradley-pooped-himself/

Bradley always gets me thinking of what the DH took from us :(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wlhu2U5EXk

I know people who do that before meetings

Passan: Two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal filed for a $32 million salary this year while the Detroit Tigers countered at $19 million, sources tell ESPN. The $13 million spread is by far the largest in salary-arbitration history and sets up for a fascinating hearing in February.

this is his last year of arb? $19 feels crazy low.

it’s apparently the largest number ever offered to a pitcher in arbitration so i’m sure that will be the tigers’ defense but why you would risk fracturing your relationship with a player of skubal’s character over what like $5 or $6 million i don’t really understand

i meant caliber* tho character works too

Two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal filed for a $32 million salary this year while the Detroit Tigers countered at $19 million

if the arbitrator actually chooses $19m over $32m for a guy who's won the last two cy youngs . . . that will have CBA repercussions

not that skubal getting fully paid should be the focus of those negotiations, of course

mark feinsand makes the point that the real number to focus on is the midpoint $25.5m - if either side can prove he's worth $1 either above or below that, then they win

yeah seems like an extreme example of one side deliberately underbidding and the other overbidding

if this is his last year of arb, Ohtani and Soto both got $30+M and i would think that is the comp; as opposed to just sticking to SPs. i'd think Detroit is going to lose this one.

Juan Soto settled on a $31 million deal with the Yankees in his final arb year before free agency. Shohei Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a $30 million when he was in Skubal's place. After them comes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays who landed at $28.5 million.

$32m may or may not be slightly too high, but $19m is absurd (as would $25.49m be). he is, at *worst*, the second-best pitcher in the game!

hey what about my friernd hank you works at the general store? he’s never missed a day of work in 34 years and he makes minimum wage and never complains!

The Dodgers will pay you Skubal!!!

Posnanski:

I mean, you have already gotten TWO CY YOUNG SEASONS from the guy for a grand total of $12.8 million. He has been the bargain of the century. Fangraphs has estimated his open-market value over the last two years at a touch over $100 million.

Apparently, an 87% off sale is not enough for these Tigers.

So, yes, lowballing Tarik Skubal because you can is a statement — a statement that you do not particularly value the player, a statement that you do not intend to compete for him when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year, a statement that you do not care if he feels resentful toward the team.

chill out pos

I don’t think anything he’s saying is wrong. I know players have held grudges over WAY smaller amounts.

yeah but he’s being unnecessarily dramatic for content purposes

I can't imagine that this actually goes to arbitration, I don't see any way the Tigers can win this considering what Vlad, Soto, and Ohtani got paid in their arb. years. They'll probably come to a settlement, and soon.

he’s being unnecessarily dramatic for content purposes

Not to be confused with being unnecessarily pernickety for message-board purposes...If that Fangraphs calculation is at all close, I'd say a 100-million-dollar return on a 13-million-dollar investement is pretty dramatic.

You can add an 's' in there.

Just anywhere we want?

Yes; differentiated learning--I'm a teacher.

i mean we'll see how skubal reacts, maybe he's a "hey it's business" guy. but it's also entirely possible that what posnanski wrote is accurate

Skubal is one of the 8 main player reps on the MLBPA btw

bregman to cubs

Lmao

ruined a relationship with Devers for one year of Bregman where he was injured two months lmao

$35M avg for 5 years. Good chunk of change.
And also lol Red Sox and lol Shaw.
Tho I worry this might spur the Sox to panic and throw an uncalled for amount of dough at Bichette.

do you actually think bichette will return to the jays?

It's been a consistent comedy of errors for these sox post-Mook

one could say the same of my exes

https://i.postimg.cc/6qsDkdSY/IMG-7683.jpg

Lols

Upgrading to a third baseman who has voiced very non-Shaw like opinions in the past is a good thing, I hope Matt goes the Gary Scott route career wise in terms of Cub third basemen.