2026 Championship Series: LAD-MIL; CLE-TB

Brewers & Rays though it will probably be the opposite.

Two seven game series leading to Dodgers Guards

For the first time under the 2022 expanded 12-team format, no Wild Card teams had ever made to the League Championship Series nor the World Series, as all four teams made it are top two seed division winners.

Whoever wrote this on Wikipedia doesn’t know shit lol, the NLCS last year was Brewers-Dodgers (both division winners) and ALCS was Blue Jays-Mariners (both division winners). I guess they’re leaning REALLY hard on the technicality of “top two seed division winners” even though Cleveland won their division this year with a wild card contender type record and the only reason they’re the 2 seed in this year is the ALW champs scraped in with a .500 record lol.

MORE IMPORTANTLY all these teams are bye teams, the “rust not rest” excuse needs to be dead and never heard again. (It was always shit!)

I'll root for the Brewers and Guardians, so that's who I voted for. Really hope Mis/Skubal lives up to the hype: in a long-gone fantasy world, the Brewers win 1-0 with a Chourio walk-off in the bottom of the ninth (both starters still in the game, of course).

This morning user Sharivari reminded me that he turned to me during game 3 of the CHW-CLE series, around the time Jo Adell hit that triple, and said “That’s it, they’ll come back to win this series.”

I laughed at him.

“The game’s not over yet, how can you be so sure.”
“It’s going to happen.”

And so it did. And while his lifetime supporting Spurs undoubtedly conditioned him to see disaster approaching from miles away that might be impossible for fans of normal teams, there is a pattern that repeats here too.

I remember when I was first getting into baseball and my two gurus on the subject were Tracer Hand and Mookieproof. Tracer Hand told me a formative memory for him was “the Bill Buckner groundball” of 1986:

https://i.postimg.cc/fRFWn5Jp/IMG-2150.jpg
And I focused on the impact on him as a fan, but later on I realised talking to our other Red Sox fan friend that there was a game 7. What the fuck! I thought. There were pitchers who didn’t make outs, batters who couldn’t score runs, and a whole nine innings to get it back, and Buckner was the scapegoat?

I think I have referenced the Athletic’s incredible oral history of the 2003 Chicago Cubs before on here. I had heard so much about this brilliant doomed team and their two aces. If you haven’t read it:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4890443/2023/10/05/chicago-cubs-2003-season-oral-history/

They do a bit about the Bartman catch of course, but the Kerry Wood quote here always stuck with me:

https://i.postimg.cc/J4ZS4qYL/IMG-2148.jpg

We know what happened next, of course.

Finally, I thought about a point Mookieproof made to me about the difference of fan mentality and player mentality, about how fans live and die with every pitch, but players are quicker to shake off losses than fans because they have to. There’s always a game tomorrow, always a plane to get on, always a new pitcher coming in. You have to be able to shake off failure, or the game will eat you alive. So for regular season losses, he said, fans probably wouldn’t like that players move on faster.

But the postseason is different. We all know this, but this one so far has really underlined the truism that you get exposed hard in the postseason.

That Red Sox-Yankees season, for instance. I never believed in their hot streak. I remembered reading Cole Hamels dismissing Cody Ross in the not-yet-lost 2010 NLCS series to the Giants.

“He’s been battling and hitting pitches that most normal people can’t hit at this time,” Hamels said. “If he can hit that through the regular season, we’ll be very impressed, but that’s what happens when guys are hot: they can hit anything.”

Show some respect to 2010 NLCS MVP Cody Ross, Cole Hamels! Thing is, he was right, just not in that situation. It was true of the Red Sox summer streak which replicated a similar hot streak that propelled them to the playoffs last year. They got huge production from a selection of fringe and quadruple A guys. The pitchers were basically unhittable. And then they got to the playoffs and the fact that they couldn’t hit anything in September came up and sent them back home, just as it did last year.

The playoffs expose because the timescale is compressed. 162 season, you can shake off a losing streak, because you know you always have time, within reason. That Red Sox team was dead and buried 14 games under .500. The Boston Globe was publishing articles saying they should make a decision to sell in June.

But most players simply can’t overcome a brutal shock like that in such a short timeline. The 86 Red Sox and 03 Cubs teams were full of veterans with cumulative decades of experience. The 2026 White Sox, as we know, are the complete opposite. Now, they never had the pitching to make a deep run, but the bats simply couldn’t overcome enough to grind something out.

The Yankees fan interference catch, similar thing. They hadn’t led once the entire series. They think they’ve tied it. The umpire overturns the call, run comes off the board. They are punctured, they lose.

And that’s why the playoffs are everything that’s great about the regular season in a brutal do or die timeline.

https://i.postimg.cc/MH929znm/branca.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/pXdtp57b/vlad.jpg

Who is the first one?

Rooting for Brewers-Rays.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/sports/baseball/ralph-branca-brooklyn-dodgers-beyond-the-pitch.html

Teams do come back from crushing post-season losses. The two that come to mind immediately are how the Reds came back to win G7 in '75 (after the Fisk HR in G6...that may not fit because it's not like anyone on the Reds made a monumental error or anything), and the Diamondbacks coming back from the two devastating Byung-Hyun Kim HR in 2001. Being able to wheel out Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling helps. Much to my surprise, Kim came back in 2002 and had a very good season--if they'd lost that series, maybe not.

i sit here with a thousand yard stare after reading that Kerry Wood quote, that series collapse is the source of so much Cub fan PTSD, mostly erased by the 2016 title, but not completely.

xp they do, but like the Red Sox ALCS comeback, they tend to be remembered cos they’re anomalous, I’d argue.

Omar, have you read the article? It’s a heartbreaker. I think of that specific quote because of the way it instantly captures the way it turned in an instant. But there’s plenty of other awful stuff in there like

The next morning, the talk was about the Cubs collapse and the so-called Billy Goat curse more than Wood starting Game 7 at home. Steve Bartman’s name started getting out in the media.

CLEMENT: I’m a sympathetic person. So, in my mind, I’m like, man, we gotta win so this guy doesn’t eat this.

Yeah, that whole story is just rough. I think ultimately Bartman was obviously not the reason for the whole thing falling apart, the Cubs were not psychologically able to close it out and that was the big part. The way the media went at that poor dude was not just irresponsible, but kind of evil.

And of course, rather than the beginning of a new successful era, it just heralded the end. Like the 2015 cubs got booted from the playoffs, but that just led to 2016. 2004 was just a disaster in comparison, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were done and Sosa declined and they just remained disappointing for another decade.

Great post gyac. I read somewhere that in order to find a "true" series winner you need 20+ games to reach statistical significance. What is, in the regular season, just the ups and downs of the job take on a mythical status in the postseason, particularly once you're past the WC. The narrative machine goes into overdrive.

With all due respect to WSGM7 winner Will Smith.... I have no idea what Roberts is thinking batting him 3rd with this slump he's got going

Cmon Brewers

Fox has a new score bug

Great AB by Teo

Brewers have to win this game, otherwise its over

miz is gonna get chased out this inning

This dude is so cooked... Wish they would have kept him fresh for the playoffs!

"Cy Young winner" quickly turns into an opener status.

Dang it miz

Lights too bright for Miz? In a vacuum, game played in an empty stadium with no stakes you pick him over Skubal, but I think Tarik's traditional I-am-literally-a-psychopath starting pitcher temperament is what you want here.

47 pitches 1ER after 2IP against Miz. Not much more you can realistically ask for

Gets out of it

But yeah what HP said

Skubs grinning after blowing him off the plate case-in-point lol

man if only the Brewers could've made an offer for that guy

but yea I don't think Miz's issue is not enough rest here I think he's just jittery and not yet mentally ready to be the ace pitcher you bring in for playoff games vs. superteams. a couple years ago he wasn't really considered much of a prospect and had long stretches where he was totally wild, might take another year or two before he feels fully comfortable I think

With a little luck, he's doing fine. The Dodgers should be up 2- or 3-0.

I can guarantee if you asked every dodgers fan in the world, they would all in a heartbeat take a 1-0 score 70pitches in 3ip from Miz

70 pitches through 3 though, mission accomplished by LA really

xp

Not to say this game isn't still very winnable by the crew, but you know, you got your ace pitching you don't want to be down. This is smelling like NLDSgm3 Yama vs. Sale

but yea I don't think Miz's issue is not enough rest here

Mis IP
2022: 1.2 (A)
2023: 71.1 (A/AA)
2024: 97.1 (AA/AAA)
2025: 129.1 (AAA/MLB)
2026: 234.0

this is some Dusty Baker territory he's in right now... velo down + getting hit HARD, "he's a gamer", etc.

admittedly he looked good against Smith & Ohtani but those dudes are as cold as it gets.🥶

SOMEONE GET A CRASH CART OUT HERE STAT

omgggggggggggggg

terrible call

You can't also give all the calls to the Dodgers

yeah Teo got bailed out. Why is it always Teo!!!!!!!!!

Some good news

Yessir

bad challenge, battery is tilted

three double plays already (apparently, i just got in)

Only one

brewers have turned 3

/ dodgers have hit into 3

Tense!

Steven Kwan is so good.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/849817/video/shawn-armstrong-in-play-out-s-to-jonathan-aranda-1xglcr

Yandy waking up and remembering he hates Cleveland is so good. Also he had another ball blatantly called a strike in his last AB which he didn’t challenge.

Messick early hook really hurt the Guards pen, but full credit to them they are fighting every single inning.

I've got a mild rooting interest for the Guardians (more a rooting interest against the Rays), but if the two teams with the best record in their league end up in the WS, I think that's a good thing.

Also he had another ball blatantly called a strike in his last AB which he didn’t challenge.

― bruich, a stór (gyac), Sunday, October 18, 2026 5:03 PM (two hours ago)

thought of you lol!

Rays are obvs a better team on paper (98W) but Cleveland (85W) is doing the WC/Cinderella special and staying hot by playing long series and hopefully have not run out of gas. Cleveland is playing esp. well on the road which will make this St. Pete finale unpredictable. I think Rays take it.

a bold prediction

In series with the 2-3-2 format that have been tied 2-2, teams winning Game 5 on the road (before going home for Games 6-7) have gone on to take the series 21 of 28 times (75%)

FPeralta has been announced as Game 6 starter tomorrow, making his 9 pitches appearance yesterday a fairly notable bullpen session.

I agree with Shasta, the Rays are clearly the better team but there's a weird X factor about this Cleveland team. Guardians vs Brewers feels like a more dramatic series than Rays vs Brewers but history will be made either way.

If it is Brewers/Rays, I hope it totally ends up being the Chourio/Caminero Show (with at least one memorable start from Mis).

Cleveland's 3rd straight bullpen game really exposing how thin their pitching staff really is.

Does the NL have an analog to Chandler Simpson?

#fredward

looking at his stats trying to get an idea of what an analog might look like (outside of "fast!") and surprised at how few doubles he gets (15 this year, 16 last). and it's not like he's tuning them into triples (9 career total). i guess when you can take second base anytime you want (3/4 of the time), you don't have to push your luck.

Ian Seymour is Tampa's hill they will die on.

gg Guardians, well played!

I looked at JRam's 2026 stats today and had no idea his power evaporated. I know he's approaching 35 but I thought he was still a 20-30HR guy.

That Guardian strikeout to end the 8th was terrible...Anyway, 201 wins and the league's two best teams will square off, and somebody will win their first; can't ask for anything more.

Congrats Rays, thanks for not making me look at those hbo commercials anymore. Brewers in 4.

excited to see the 'is getting a bye actually harmful?' stories recommence whenever baseball does

I looked at JRam's 2026 stats today and had no idea his power evaporated. I know he's approaching 35 but I thought he was still a 20-30HR guy.

hamate bone

THE RAYS WIN THE PENNANT OH MY GOD

GAME 1 BOLD PREDIX: Mis gets knocked out after 3.1IP, 110 pitches with 10Ks. Rasmussen dominates for the W.

This is genuinely so heartwarming, Glasnow and Arozarena were there!

https://www.mlb.com/news/tyler-glasnow-randy-arozarena-attend-2026-alcs-game-6-at-trop

And Alejandro Kirk!
https://i.postimg.cc/QdJ7K8Hm/IMG-3039.jpg

I’M GOING TO MAKE A NEW THREAD SHASTA BRB BRB BRB

should have been rooting for clevo but then found myself in practice rooting for the rays

all in for the brewers tho

THERE WAS FINALLY A CAMINERO HOME RUN

who is the ALCS mvp? Is it Drew Rasmussen? Sorry I literally just woke up it’s 5.27 in Belgium

bloody belgians

i'll take a sympathy kriekenlambik if you indulge.

2026 World Series: Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Omg it was Freddy Peralta and he’s going to face the Brewers

xp I had a lambic beer yesterday but it surely wasn’t kriek

THAT’S
MY
ALCS
MVP

https://i.postimg.cc/FsWRMYkJ/IMG-2859.png

some interesting trivia:
last time the WS had two teams that had never won before...
was 1980. Royals v Phillies. honestly had no idea it took the Phils 97 years of baseball to win a WS!!

Only thing I remember from that: Rose playing in at third and daring Willie Wilson to bunt. When he finally did, Rose threw him out and engaged in some theatrics...Looking at BRef, it was actually a really close series.

(Which, checking, I have typically misremembered--got the first part right.)

dude. i hid the answer for a reason!

Ah, sorry--you were quizzing.

I really don’t get what Vogt was doing wasting Cade Smith yesterday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Zenrr4qAxw

This is cute (also Pedro sounds fine here, so maybe he was just under the weather?)

Richie Palacios after the Rays were down 1-2 comparing them to the Knicks (he was proved correct by events)

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DenN9F7tlOs/

gyac i got your ilxmail by the way but no contact info was left

lol I didn’t know if you had an ilxmail that works so I didn’t include…will message you now

Re Thermo's trivia I messed up above...I'd actually be more inclined to view it through the prism of cities, not franchises. When Toronto faced Atlanta in 1992, neither city had ever won a WS--and I doubt Milwaukee's WS win in 1957 meant a whole lot to people living in Atlanta at the time. Conversely, even though neither franchise this year has ever won one, I bet there are hundreds (maybe thousands) of people in their 70s and 80s living in Milwaukee who were kids when the Braves won in '57.

it feels right for the Brewers to win, they've got that 2016 Cubs vibe imo, hope it's a fun series and Milwaukee fans aren't quite put through the same wringer Cubs fans were in G7 against Cleveland.

Cubs winning it all threw the entire Earth off its axis, when we win it will all be corrected

Cubs transferred the curse from themselves to the world, some real apocalyptic shit

Nice--I'll have to quote that.

Meg rowley’s thing is 2016 opened a portal to hell

Does the NL have an analog to Chandler Simpson?

― be dang if it aint (WmC), Tuesday, 20 October 2026 02:29 (sixteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I was going to say “David Hamilton” but Simpson is an everyday player with a far better hit tool. Hammy is more like Palacios on the Rays.

justin crawford on the phillies imo is an analog to simpson

wow i was bang on (first time ever using baseball savant for this!)

https://i.postimg.cc/wjvqrdBm/Screenshot-2026-10-20-at-2-58-48-PM.png