Baseball 2004 -- Second Half Thread

They have the best staff ERA in baseball and can't do shit to support them. The Brewers averaged about 2.5 runs in their last 7 games with the Cubs and won 5 of the 7. In order of importance, here's what I think the Cubs need to get to the playoffs this year:

- Batting order shakeup. Alou is just killing this team batting 4th. Sammy's not doing much in the 3 slot, either. There's no reason this team shouldn't be scoring more runs with Lee and Ramirez as good as they've been.
- Bullpen help
- Finding a relatively high OBP guy to play SS (Omar Vizquel?)

but it probably won't happen if johnson doesn't want to play in boston.

thome and abreu are having monster years, burrell and bell are putting up good power numbers, too, but the phils don't seem to have good table setters. i'm not sold on jimmy rollins and placido polanco.

re: cards

how much of their pitching is smoke and mirrors? can carpenter hold really stay on a roll? is marquis legit? that being said, pujols, edmonds and rolen are all having incredible years.

While the Giants are middle of the MLB pack in terms of Batting Average, they are 3rd in the majors in OBP (thanks to you know who).

As great as his last 3 seasons have been, Bonds is putting up career-best numbers in terms of:
Batting Average (.371 vs. his career best .370 in '02)
On-Base Percentage (.628 on pace to obliterate his MLB record of .582 in '02)
On-Base Plus Slugging (1.420 should obliterate his MLB record of 1.381 in '02)

Bonds owns the season/career MLB records in BBs/IBBs, but look at this season in particular:
2001: 177/35
2002: 198*/68 *MLB record
2003: 148/61
2004: 137/77* MLB record

Homeruns vs. Strikeouts:
2001: 73/93 = 0.78
2002: 46/47 = 0.98
2003: 45/58 = 0.78
2004: 24/21 = 1.14 (which is unbelievable if you think about it)

So yeah, I think that statistician who published the report that teams are better off pitching to Bonds was on to something. Bonds being on base 3 times a game creates an intangible value that defies conventional baseball wisdom.

Re: Cards pitching
From what I've seen, they're a really solid pitching staff. HOWEVER, I think the Cards staff faces the same question as the Yankees', namely, is this the type of rotation that a team could rely on in a short playoff series?

Re: Giants (whoops, xpost)
I would like to hear the perspective of a SFO fan, because I can't figure out what's driving this team either. Especially after they got off to such a horrendous start. I see the clubhouse cancer has picked up his play a bit, and Schmidt is Schmidt, but what else is there?

The years the Cubs have won the division, they always had a good leadoff man to get on base. They have no team speed at all, so they can't hit and run or do things to manufacture runs. They hit way too many solo HRs. I don't think they are ready to collapse, but it is going to be tight to win 90-94 games to win the wild card because of the competitive nature of the division. I think Nomar would be a good pickup and I think Boston would be wise to try and get Mitre and a couple of other young pitchers for him. Boston doesn't need Nomar's bat as much as they need good young pitching.

Jimmy Rollins has played real well since the beginning of June. He was only hitting around .200 until late May and has had a bunch of good games of late. Like many guys these days, he doesn't draw enough walks and strikes out a bunch for a lead off hitter. Polanco was hurt for a month and a half, but I think the guy they had playing for him did OK.

Oakland A's splits pre-allstar/post-allstar/result:

2000: 48-38/43-32 = 91-70 AL West Champs
2001: 44-43/58-17 = 102-60 AL Wildcard
2002: 50-38/53-21 = 103-59 AL West Champs
2003: 54-39/42-27 = 96-66 AL West Champs
2004: 47-39/ ???

considering that oakland is carrying a .669 win-loss percentage over the back of the past 4 seasons, i would be very skeptical of any predictions of them not being able to sustain a run (esp. now that Barry Zito is looking much better than he was over the past 2 months).

http://sportsmed.starwave.com/media/mlb/2002/0626/photo/i_bondskent_hi.gif

There's a movement among the natives to ship Kent out and let Chris Burke from AAA finish out the year at 2B.

And speaking of ridiculous moustaches, a co-worker returned from a week of vacation today with Ironic Moustache, minus the irony. I asked him if was auditioning for the remake of Smokey and the Bandit.

"Stay back, let Barry kill him."

if "scarier" = able to hit the ball better:
his BA = .371 TY vs. .341 LY

if "scarier" = able to hit the ball further:
his SLG = .792 TY vs. .749 LY

so yes, jose cruz, rich aurilia, benito santiago and andres galarraga are no longer giants but do you really think any of these guys "protected" Bonds?

Giants RBI Leaders:
Pedro Feliz - 52
Bonds - 51
Marquis Grissom - 51
Edgardo Alfonzo - 49
AJ Pierzenski - 48

I think like the 'Hack a Shaq', walking Bonds might work somewhat in the short run, but fails in the long run.

link

I'm not sure I buy it, I think that having the slowest team in the majors having Snow, Bonds and Pierzynski (who I'm not sure if JT can remember how many double plays AJ's grounded into batting behind Bonds) in the meat of the order can't be a good solution.

Jaret Wright looked like a budding star when he first came up with Cleveland and before he hurt his arm. He was a clutch pitcher that year in the playoffs for the Indians and would have perhaps been the MVP if they would have held on to the lead. I'm glad to see he has been able to get things back together.

phils haven't even had the offensive injuries the braves have and still haven't been able to close shit out.

St. Louis is a freaking juggernaut. Considering NY questionable pitching and injury situation, there is no doubt that the Cards are the current team to beat in baseball.

Oakland is knocking on the door, as the Texas' lead is down to a .5 game. Boston has to keep pace with these two clubs, as along with the Angels and perhaps the White Sox, the wild card is going to be tight.

How about Cleveland's low rent sluggers! They are the top scoring team in baseball, over the NY/Boston financial axis and the Rockies freak of physics offense.

I think Bowa has about a week. Don't know when they have their next day off or start their next road trip, but that might be the day unless they start winning. Philly is a harsh sports town, that town seems to raise the pressure to all it's sports teams. Just wait until this fall when the Eagles D is giving up 500 yards a game, I'm sure T.O. will get just as much love as Bowa, once he starts mouthing off.

Team     Run Diff.    Over/under .500
STL      +108         +29
LA        +52         +17
SD        +38         +11
ATL       +61          +9
SFO        +9          +9
CHC       +79          +8
PHI        +2          +2
FLO        +4          +2
HOU       +36           0

Is there anything to be made of this? To my eyes, the NL West is racking up a disproportionately good W-L record. Is that just an anomaly or is there a strength of schedule component that's helping the NLW teams rack up higher W-L records than we should expect based on their RS-RA?

I'll be watching this!