2004 Playoffs Thread

People seem to talk about this trade as if it's a given the Cubs will win the wild card.

That has irked me a little too. There are more than a few Cubs fans projecting the starting pitching matchups with the Cards in the NLCS (you can guess their conclusions).

But I have to say, if the Cubs don't get the WC, it won't be for lack of effort on the part of Jim Hendry. This team underperformed early in the year and squandered a lot of chances (2-4 against the Snakes, not beating up on SFO when they were down, giving away game after game to the Cards, et al.). They also can't win a one run game to save their lives.

That said, the schedule and injury situation are really lining up in the Cubs favor. Hollandsworth is the only major missing cog, and he should be back next week. They have a set of games against the NL West starting tomorrow in which they can dramatically improve their wild card chances. Their September schedule as of right now features exactly zero games against teams above .500. Dusty doesn't have to pencil in an offensive black hole at SS the rest of the season.

So even though I know that something like 18% of teams make the playoffs if they're not leading the division or wild card on July 31, I don't think it's crazy to think the Cubs have a pretty decent shot at adding to that 18%.

AL WILD CARD
              w     L     GB
Texas        57    46
Anaheim      57    48     1.0
Boston       56    47     1.0
White Sox    53    49     3.5
Cleveland    53    52     5.0

NL WILD CARD
              w     L     GB
San Diego    58    47
Cubs         57    49     1.0
San Fran.    57    50     2.0
Philadelphia 53    52     5.0
Houston      53    52     5.0
Florida      52    52     5.5

ANYWAY.

AL East: Yankees (boo)
AL Central: Indians (yay!) (OK, this is more a "hope"...)
AL West: A's
AL Wildcard: Angels

NL East: Braves (sheesh...)
NL Central: Cardinals (see above)
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Padres

AL East: Yanquis
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wildcard: Angels

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Giants

AL East: unspeakable evil
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels
AL Wildcard: A's

NL East: Bravezzzzzz
NL Central: Cardinals!
NL West: Padres
NL Wildcard: the Fish sneak in again

Cards and Angels meet in a WS with a truckload of O-fence. (Redbirds win, obviously.)

thoughts? feelings?

ALDS: Yankees / Angels; Angels in 6
ALDS: A's / Indians; A's in 5
ALCS: Angels / A's; A's in 7

NLDS: Cardinals / Padres; Padres in 7
NLDS: Dodgers / Braves; Dodgers in 6
NLCS: Dodgers / Padres; Dodgers in 6

World Series: A's / Dodgers; A's in 6

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Padres

Of course, I generally think predictions are foolish stuff for no-talent writers to indulge in...

Outside of St.Louis, Chicago and to a lesser extent Houston, the rest of the central is done. I think Chicago doesn't have to play the Cardinals again until perhaps the playoffs.

SD has gotten better pitching than I expected, but unless this Peavey guy is the real deal and Wells can stay healthy, I still don't think they can make it the whole way.

SF is still a mystery to me, after Bonds and Schmidt they don't seem to have anything but wins. Alou must be a sorcerer or something.

LA looks solid and adding Finley and Penny should help them down the stretch. It is hard to go against them winning the West.

For Chicago, it all depends on how Wood and Prior do down the stretch. If they stay healthy and start pitching well, they are in good shape. If not, I think it could be SF in the Wildcard.

Unless the injury bug catches up with Atlanta, I think they will win the East. If they lose Smoltz or their starting pitching starts getting thin, they could blow it in a week. I think Fla and Philly will be close enough to make a run for them if this swoon happens. Philly doesn't have enough pitching to click off 8 to 10 wins in a row to get them neck and neck. Florida might have enough pitching to get a hot streak going, but they burned up a bunch of luck last year and I don't see it happening again.

I think the wildcard is going to be a three horse race between Boston, Anaheim and the A's. The two of those teams that play best in August/September will make the playoffs.

The A's to me seem to have the best combination of hitting and pitching, so I think they will win the west. Zito seems to be pitching better and Chavez has hit quite well since coming off the DL.

The Angels have a good bullpen, middling starters and even with the injuries a solid offense. I really like Scioscia as a manager, he makes things happen and seems to know to work his bullpen. How many teams would use a bunt single by Jose Molina and turn it into a winning run like they did last Saturday against the Mariners, where they came back from a 5-0 deficit.

Boston hits like mad and has ok to thin pitching. That club/town is schizophrenic, they could either get hot and walk into the playoffs or spiral into the mountain.

The Cubs have Dusty Baker at the helm. Both Prior and Wood have seen the DL this year, and it may not be the last time.

So bear with me here... I put together the number of games remaining in the year against division-leading or wild card-conteding teams (for the current top 5 NL wild card teams):

San Deigo
San Francisco
Chicago
Houston
Philadelphia

SD: 56 games left, 27 against division leaders or wild card contenders:
- 2 vs. PHI
- 3 vs. CHI
- 3 vs. ATL
- 6 vs. STL
- 7 vs. LA
- 6 vs. SFO

SFO: 55 games left, 25 against division leaders or wild card contenders:
- 3 vs. CHI
- 3 vs. PHI
- 4 vs. ATL
- 6 vs. SD
- 3 vs. HOU
- 6 vs. LA

CHI: 56 games left, 19 against division leaders or wild card contenders:
- 3 vs. SFO
- 3 vs. SD
- 3 vs. LA
- 7 vs. HOU
- 3 vs. ATL

HOU: 56 games left, 22 against division leaders or wild card contenders:
- 6 vs. PHI
- 7 vs. CHI
- 6 vs. STL
- 3 vs. SFO

PHI: 56 games left, 21 against division leaders or wild card contenders:
- 2 vs. SD
- 3 vs. LA
- 3 vs. SFO
- 6 vs. HOU
- 1 vs. CHW
- 6 vs. ATL

To my eyes, the NL West has the toughest road to hoe (heh heh) to the wild card, unless either SD or SFO goes on an absolute tear and wipes the other out of the picture, in which case their relatively loaded schedules would be somewhat advantageous. My feeling is that attrition will doom the NL West's wild card chances.

My feeling is that attrition will doom the NL West's wild card chances.
-- mattbot (mattbo...), August 4th, 2004 9:24 AM

vs.

THREAD TITLE: SI predicts the Cubs to win it all this year.

that's ridiculous, the NL Central is way too tight...

if the cubs were in the NL West or even the NL East, then yes, they definitely are playoff bound. but the cards and astros bats could turn those cubby aces into jelly by august. both teams have very scary middle of the orders.

The NL Central pennant race will be a pyrrhic victory.

-- gygax! (gygax0...), March 30th, 2004.

St. Louis 67-39
Chicago 64-43
Atlanta 61-45
Los Angeles 60-46
Houston 59-48
San Diego 57-50
Mets 54-52
Phillies 54-53
Giants 55-54
Pirates 53-52
Florida 51-55

But I just have a hunch ... Wood/Prior fragility is part of it. The Cubs and Astros are the furthest off their expected W-L at -5, and in all of MLB -- you guessed it -- the Pinstriped Profiteers are +9.

Pythag Standings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/neyer/index

virtual tie between SD, SF and Cubs.

The warming-up Giants play 4 at home versus the league-worst Expos starting tonight.

ha ha, I guess .500 is something to brag about when the 'birds are 9-1 vs the rest of the tuff NL West. My Fish pick for the WC looks better lately.

LDS:

MIN > NYY
BOS > ANA

STL > LA
HOU > ATL

LCS:

BOS > MIN (in seven)
STL > HOU (in six)

WS:

what the hell, why not,
BOS > STL (in six)

I'm not predicting the # of games for the LDS because I hate the idea of deciding a season with five-game series, particularly in a wild-card round.

Yanks over Twins in 5
Sox over Angels in 4
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Astros over Braves in 5

Sox over Yanks in 7 (and it will be stunning)
Cardinals over Astros in 6

Cardinals over Sox in 5

Yankees > Twins
Angels > Red Sox

Cardinals > Dodgers
Braves > Astros

__

Yankees > Angels
Cardinals > Braves

__

Yankees > Cardinals

[b]Dream world:[/b]

Yanks > Twins
Angels > Red Sox

Cards > Dodgers
Braves > Astros

__

Angels > Yanks
Braves > Cards

___

Braves > Angels

Angels over Yankees

NL:
Braves over Astros
Cardinals over Dodgers

World Series:
Angels over Cardinals

What am I saying, they want Yanks-Dodgers for the TV ratings.

I'd be happy to put together some sort of table to keep track of results if people are interested. And scoring suggestions are welcome -- all I can think of is 1 point for picking the series winner and 1 BONUS POINT for picking the correct series length. I'm sure someone could think of something more creative (a special series MVP tiebreaker?).

Two of the Molina's are backups, but still...

We'll proabably want to have Rolling Playoff threads for each series ... or wait until the LCS?

gosh...i thought joe buck and tim "i am derek jeter's father" mccarver moonlighted as yes announcers.

I wonder if Francona is smart enough to pull Schilling after six so that he can pitch in game four just in case?

Earl writes:
Penny isn't scheduled to start a game either.

True, but you can't forecast injury. Decline is much easier to predict.

Gagne was definitely not as effective after Mota left and now he is hurt, was this because of overwork? I don't know.

None have the Dodger pitchers have been effective since LoDuca left. David Ross and Brent Mayne might not be calling the game that he did.

Series tied 0-0

Game 1: at NYY - Preview
Tue, Oct 5 - 8:05 pm EDT
TV: FOX
J. Santana vs. M. Mussina

Game 2: at NYY
Wed, Oct 6 - 7:05 pm EDT
TV: ESPN
B. Radke vs. J. Lieber

Game 3: at MIN
Fri, Oct 8 - 8:05 pm EDT
TV: ESPN
O. Hernández vs. C. Silva

*Game 4: at MIN
Sat, Oct 9 - TBA
TV: FOX
J. Vázquez vs. J. Santana

*Game 5: at NYY
Sun, Oct 10 - TBA
TV: FOX
B. Radke vs. M. Mussina

i LOVE joe girardi as a strategy inside-the-game guy. he's so tender. his commentary is like willie nelson singing.

How many balls have been hit to the MIN infield? With guys on base? 3 Double plays through 6 tonight. 1 Fielder's choice.

Not to mention Minnesota's defense has been spectacular: outfield assists (at home no less), caught stealings, 3 double plays, etc.

santana hasn't impressed me, really. he hasn't allowed a home run and there's a lot to be said for that, but his control took a little while to come round and he's been really, really lucky. definitely not at his best, and the yankees should be leading.

(I was going to say.)

Somebody help a brutha out: how have the Yankees won so many games with so many guys below .300?

walks and home runs, and a good back of the bullpen (their rotation being the real weakness)

i'll give the twins D their due, but they still got really fucking lucky.

The Yanks were so un-clutch tonite.

the assertion that he was tipping his pitches is preposterous, unless it was sporadic. the yanks looked off-balance all night, and though i've only seen santana once (and not for long at that as i think i turned the game off in disgust) his only major problem looked like difficulty spotting his pitches in the early going. i'd think he might've thrown the change a little more, i dunno, but it didn't look compromised or anything when he did. the yankees weren't getting cheap hits, either, and i didn't really feel like keeping track of how many balls they whacked right to the shortstop or second baseman.

BBT, you gave up 90 minutes of a primo playoff pitching duel to watch two guys pander to Israel and homophobes?

ESPN Radio mentioned something about his grip and glove position. The batter can't see the grip, but Torii has a pretty good idea where the pitch is going after seeing the grip from behind.

Last night I dozed off around the 7th inning... I assume McCarver was talking about getting the tying run on, so I appreciate the general point, which is preferable to dum-dum fans cheering a sacrifice fly with one out in the 9th several runs down.

Mystique and Aura vulnerable to a pitch-tipping Santana?

On the contrary, you couldn't ask much more of playoff game from a spectator's standpoint. Yanks had runners on in every inning until Nathan went 1-2-3 in the ninth, Torii threw out a runner at the plate & made a fine leaping catch at the wall, Sierra launched two near-homers, & Jones' homer was high drama. Mussina & Santana both pitched great, gritty games. Torre got burned on gutsy baserunning gambits, Gardenhire scored on a single-sacrifice-single. I was completely hooked until the final out.

Also, McCarver wasn't talking about the tying run, since the Yankees were down 2-0.

And one last "controversial" point: it'd be better if there were threads for each playoff series, instead of one big playoff thread. Just my preference.

But wasn't McCarver-Jeter saying a walk *ahead* of the tying run was as good as a HR? (granted, not quite)

[MOD: LOCKED - see playoff specific threads]