2004 Cy Young Awards - Predictions and Commentary

On the merits: Schmidt followed by Clemens and Sheets (Rocket actually got a tough loss yesterday), Mulder followed thisclose by Santana and Schilling.

Bill James formulated a Cy predictor for the latest book, based on past voting factors... Schmidt has nearly caught Gagne, and Rivera leads Mulder:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

Seaver was my fave player as a kid, but fer Chrissake if he said "the National League is hitting under .200 against Leiter / Schmidt" once more... They play interleague games, Tom. And with his "In my day we threw 135+ pitches," TT has a great chance to be Bob Feller in 25 years.

Has a mere 9 wins, so the James Cy Predictor has him 14th.

Jason Schmidt - 49.3
Mark Mulder - 47.1
Roger Clemens - 46.6
Johan Santana - 46.6
Ben Sheets - 44.2
Livan Hernandez - 43.5
Curt Schilling - 43.1
Randy Johnson - 42.3
Tom Glavine - 42.0
Carlos Zambrano - 41.3
Al Leiter - 40.7
Ryan Drese - 40.1
Carl Pavano - 39.3
Brad Radke - 39.2
Russ Ortiz - 39.0

Schmidt is the NL Cy Young canidate with no one else really close. Without him, SF would be nothing.

Well, that rationale isn't working on the Rolen fans re Bonds for MVP, is it? Of course, Schmidt hasn't won 6 Cys, so there's no Schmidt fatigue.

That would be true if the Giants had only won one of every five games. Fortunately, they are just north of one of every two games, so obv. there is something else going on in SF.

No pitcher is having a dominating, MVP consideration year, ie Pedro 1999-2000 or Maddux '94-95.

But that's not dominance.

DATE     OPPONENT        IP     H     ER     BB     SO     HR     W/L
6/9      Mets           7.0     6      1      0     10      1      W
6/15     Expos          8.0     3      2      0      7      1      W
6/20     Brewers        8.0     4      2      2     12      1      W
6/25     Brewers        7.0     4      1      0     10      1      W
7/1      White Sox      8.0     3      2      2     12      1      L
7/6      Royals         9.0     3      0      2     13      0      W
7/11     Tigers         8.0     2      2      2     11      1      L
7/17     Royals         8.0     1      0      4      9      0      W
7/22     Devil Rays     7.0     3      1      3     10      1
7/27     White Sox      6.0     2      1      2      6      1      W
8/1      Red Sox        8.0     2      2      1     12      2      W
8/7      A's            6.1     7      3      1     10      0      W
8/12     Mariners       7.0     7      1      2      7      1      W
8/18     Yankees        7.0     5      2      1      6      0      W
8/23     Rangers        8.0     4      1      1     11      1      W
---------------------------------------------------------------------
         TOTAL        112.1    56     21     23    146     12    12-2

"Over his last 15 starts, Santana is 12-2 with a 1.68 ERA (the Twins were shutout and scored one run in the two games he lost). He has averaged 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings while giving up an astounding 4.5 hits per nine innings, and has a 6.3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Santana has also averaged 7.5 innings per start while going at least seven innings 13 times, and has pitched against five of the top six offenses in the American League."

GIANTS NOTEBOOK

Schmidt can't shake injury, will miss at least next start

By David Kiefer

Mercury News

Jason Schmidt was scratched from Tuesday's start because his strained right groin hasn't healed enough.

The Giants ace tested it Sunday by throwing for eight minutes in the outfield, followed by about 15 half-speed pitches off an indoor mound. There was no pain, but Schmidt was tentative about the possibility of throwing with a full windup or at full speed.

The plan is for Schmidt to pitch Saturday, with Wayne Franklin starting in Schmidt's place Tuesday, but there is no certainty that Schmidt will be ready even by then.

``You've got to go with his gut instincts,'' pitching coach Dave Righetti said. ``And his gut instincts needed a few more days, and we're going to give it to him.''

There may be a temptation to use Schmidt in a playoff race even if he's not 100 percent, but trainer Stan Conte said that's not an option.

``Groin injuries on pitchers are potentially dangerous on elbows, shoulders and everything else,'' Conte said. ``You want to be as sure as we can be that he's going to be able to go out there and pitch his normal game and not hurt anything else.''

Schmidt went on the disabled list for more than a month because of a groin injury to start the 2002 season, but there is no talk of the D.L. just yet. If Schmidt does not show improvement on his next throwing days, Tuesday and Wednesday, that could change.

2003 National League Cy Young Award
                          1st           Max        |       Season Results 
 Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share|  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV
+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+
  1 Eric Gagne        LAD   28    146    160  0.91 |  2-3   82  1.20 0.693 137 55
  2 Jason Schmidt     SFG    2     73    160  0.46 | 17-5  208  2.34 0.953 208   
  3 Mark Prior        CHC    2     60    160  0.38 | 18-6  211  2.43 1.103 245   
  4 Russ Ortiz        ATL    0      9    160  0.06 | 21-7  212  3.82 1.314 149   

anyway, i'm sure we've had this arg before, but he automatically always (theoretically) pitches when it counts, and they don't. the fact that none of them have any control over it doesn't change how it effects their value to their teams. i'm not saying gagne was as valuable as schmidt or prior last year, and the voting was ridiculous (28 first place votes to 2 apiece for prior and schmidt???), but i didn't think him being in the running, or even winning, was all that ridiculous. and i definitely don't think he's overrated, though it'll be interesting to see how he comes out of this recent speed bump (and i'm pretty sure that's all it is).

In your effort to discount "wins" when selecting a Cy Young award winner you overlook the fact that the mark of a great pitcher is to win the tough games. Sandy Koufax got little run support from the Dodgers but he won the 1-0 and 2-1 games. Yes, giving up three runs may be a quality start, but the idea is to outpitch the other guy. Johnson has a history of losing tough games. There is a missing intangible somewhere. -- Stephen Perry, Raleigh, N.C.

Stephen, I wasn't trying to discount wins as a measuring stick for the Cy. The number of wins is a factor. It should be. The question is how many? I said before that I don't think a guy with a losing record should get it. I think it takes a .500 record, minimum. And it'd help if Johnson got in the top 10 in wins. Otherwise, I agree with you about the Unit. I'm not sure what the intangible is that's missing -- I guess that's part of what makes it an intangible -- but something's amiss. Johnson always seems to give up the late solo homer, or maybe two of them, and the way the Diamondbacks are playing, that's usually enough to bury him.

Gagne actually had a losing record last year (2-3), but W-L doesn't really matter with relievers.

Gagne is still in the lead, but I think that's a weakness of the CYP. That is, when it comes to closers, the W-L record isn't so important. (Gagne is 6-3, so he gets 30 points for his W-L record alone).

http://www.aarongleeman.com/rivas1.jpg

Some espn.com dingaling declared that the NL Cy is between Clemens and Oswalt! Roy O has had about the tenth-best season in the league.

Oswalt hasn't had the second-best season in the league, but he's maybe at fifth or sixth -- plus, he's tied with Clemens and Pavano for the all-important Wins stat right now.

Unit, Sheets, Pavano, Schmidt, Clemens, Zambrano and Livan Hernandez have all pitched better than Oswalt this year, and you can make a case for putting Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy ahead of him. By BBWAA standards, he'll certainly finish ahead of some of the support-starved.

Shawn Estes, 14-7
Randy Johnson, 14-13

I can't find the BP stats, but I'm pretty sure Estes leads the NL in Pitcher Luck this year.

Shocker!

Here is a link to Gammons article about Rivera and the MVP award.

"Because winning the AL East is so important this season -- the Red Sox or Yankees will have a distinct homefield advantage..."

What a foundation to build a dopey argument on. How will this homefield be any more or less meaningful, before the fact? And the votes will be in before anyone can even try to refute this on the results.

This silly talk won't go away til there's a BBWAA Fireman of the Year award.

Similarly, last year you had a very vocal minority complaining that closers should win the Cy Young because that award "should" be given to a starter. Fortunately, sanity prevailed and Gagne still won. But a closers award could solve that problem.

Once again a post on ILB gets a response on the field.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcDBuM2RlBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0aA--?gid=240922127&prov=ap

Will the win-centric BBWAA give the Cy to Schilling over Santana? I wouldn't be remotely surprised.

Ironically, Schilling's last few starts have been some of his best of the season.

Randy Johnson 70.9
Carlos Zambrano 63.2
Ben Sheets 62.6
Roger Clemens 62.0
Carl Pavano 59.5

Zambrano doesn't have a shot either, we agree? btw, Gammons wrote the Yankees are expected to go after Pavano.

Jake Peavy has eye-popping numbers for a guy with only 160 IP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1892977

Wait, didn't Stark argue vociferously against voting ARod for MVP last year, claiming that the award wasn't for the best player? Didn't he pick Shannon Stewart for MVP last year?

Pavano has been great this year and was good for the Marlins down the second half the year before. Does this mean he will be good next year or is he the next coming of Andy Hawkins? They can drop the cash, but this is the kind of investment that got the Yanks into the basement back in the 80s. I'd say the money is even on this one.

The Unit is probably the best starter in the NL, but I think he will get edged out by Clemens. Both of those guys are freaks of nature being as good as they are at their age.

Johan Santana 1
Curt Schilling 2
Brad Radke 3
Jake Westbrook 4
Mark Buehrle 5

Randy Johnson 1
Ben Sheets 2
Carl Pavano 3
Roger Clemens 4
Carlos Zambrano 5