Bonds vs. Ichiro

Month	Bonds Ks	Ichiro Walks	Bonds HRs
APR	    6		      8		    10
MAY	    4		      7		     4
JUN	    6		     10		     6
JUL	    6		      6		     7
AUG	    7		      6		    11 
SEP	    4		      2		     3
2004	   33		     39		    41
Cumulative Totals
Month	Bonds Ks	Ichiro Walks	Bonds HRs
APR	    6		      8		    10
MAY	   10		     15		    14
JUN	   16		     25		    20
JUL	   22		     31		    27
AUG	   29		     37		    38
SEP	   33		     39		    41

It looks like Ichiro's months with walk totals are inversely correlated with his months with high hit totals (although the sample sizes are small). I guess that's no surprise.

Jim (Boston)

Every statistically inclined sort seems to agree that (a) Ichiro is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and (b) Ichiro is over-rated. Do you agree, and if so, how do you reconcile them?

Rob Neyer (12:26 PM)

I do agree, and I don't see the contradiction as particularly troubling. Sandy Koufax, Derek Jeter, Roberto Clemente, Nolan Ryan ... all of them are almost universally overrated, and all of them are perfectly deserving Hall of Famers.

Agree with Neyer and everyone else completely: his obvious limitations notwithstanding, Ichiro is automatic first-ballot at this point (on his MLB career alone; doubly so if you factor in his Japanese years).

I know that Jeter and Ryan have never been sabermetric favorites, but is it the current line that Clemente and Koufax were overrated too? I don't think I've ever heard either referred to that way, although I realize Koufax got some help from Chavez Ravine.

Ichiro's similarity scores are super weird, but I wonder if a huge part of that is that his MLB career started so late.

Either way Ichiro's past ten years >>> Tony Gwynn's best ten years (who was also kind of overrated obv) who is probably the guy I think of as being most similar to him,

yes, park factor is a big part of Koufax' overratedness. Clemente, while a good hitter wuth grade A endurance and great defense, didn't have the slugging component of Mays, Aaron, Frank Robinson, yet he's certainly spoken of ahead of F.R. these days. (His heroic death and pioneering status as a Latino star is obviously an understandable part of that.)

Yeah Clemente's one of those players where people remember the tools more than the stats.

With the bat, my instinct is that I'd take Gwynn over Ichiro--I always thought of Gwynn as less of a just-a-singles-hitter. When you factor in defense and speed, I guess Ichiro's better.

Has Ichiro ever expressed a desire to be traded to a contender?

Seattle had a lot of success his first few years there, so I'm guessing he's content to play out his career there. The one-team careerist is like the 300-game winner; every time it happens you hear that'll be the last time ever, then someone does it again. (I was just checking Ichiro's postseason stats--against Cleveland in the 2001 ALDS, he was 12 for 20!)

Has Ichiro ever expressed a desire to be traded to a contender?

― In "Bob" There Is No East or West (WmC), Sunday, October 10, 2010 9:56 AM (4 hours ago)

he's Japanese... lol?

Meaning what exactly?

it's a cultural thing, google "lifetime employment in japan" or "employer loyalty in japan"... i'm sure there's quite a bit written about it.

pretty brief lifetime he spent employed by the orix blue wave

^_^

oh dman son you sure zung me dawg

but seriously, go read Ichiro on Ichiro... there's this chapter on how he had to receive Ohgi's (OBW owner) blessing to even consider the negotiation process. it's a bit more formal than you think.

(although the JP-EN translator is Philip Gabriel who I'm not huge on so...)

Culture schmulture, I want to see him in the postseason. But I don't see it happening.

I saw him in person at the all star game a couple years back and he led off the game with an inside of the park HR which was pretty much legendary. I had high hopes for Seattle this year and picked them to win the West but that team's flaws are so deep, I don't see how they can right that ship.

or the lighthouse it smashed into.

so if ichiro went to talk to ohgi why cant he go talk to mario or link or whoever

its not like that. he never asked ohgi if he could leave the team and play in the majors, ohgi had to give his blessing for him to even begin the negotation process (aka "posting").

read the book, it's not bad (although the translator is not my fave).

how do you feel about the translator tho

there is a thread on him actually on ILB where I get more specific if you really wanna know...

With the bat, my instinct is that I'd take Gwynn over Ichiro--I always thought of Gwynn as less of a just-a-singles-hitter. When you factor in defense and speed, I guess Ichiro's better.

I love Tony Gwynn but Ichiro is a better player in my opinion.

I think they are pretty close based on their MLB careers (almost impossible to judge Ichiro in some ways missing 5-7 years of time in the prime of his career). Gwynn was (a couple of years aside) primarily a singles hitter as well, but he did have a couple of years where he slugged in the mid-.500s something it is hard to imagine Ichiro ever doing ages 20-27 aside. Ichiro is definitely the better defender and way way more dangerous on the basepaths. WAR has them both with four top ten WAR finishes which seems about right to me (although if Ichiro continues at his current clip though he'll probably end up passing Gwynn in career WAR.)

Gwynn's reputation as a glorified singles hitter is a bit unfair -- his career SLG is .459. He was always a good doubles and triples hitter, and his career OPS+ is 132 (Ichiro's is 117, and Gwynn's career SLG is nearly better than Ichiro's single season high). When he was younger he could also steal bases and was solid defensively.

The biggest advantage that Ichiro has over Gwynn is that his conditioning is second to none and will probably be a productive player until at least age 40. Toward the end of his career, Gwynn was a liability in every aspect of the game except for hitting (somehow he managed to put up great triple slash numbers until the day he retired despite weighing 450 pounds). So like Alex said, I can easily see Ichiro passing Gwynn in career WAR in another five years.

Is anyone else a bit surprised that Ichiro has only won two batting titles?

not really, he's probably the most likely player to win it any given year, but against the field that might translate to a 5% chance instead of a 2% chance, or whatever

Tony Gwynn's one of those guys where I can't be objective; I thought he was just so much fun. Part of it was that he outlasted Boggs as the guy who continued to hit .350 during the home-run bonanza, there was the could've-hit-.400 year (truthfully, I doubt he would have done it), and most of all there was the way he talks. I've never heard a professional athlete who sounds so much like a 7-year-old on Christmas morning. One line that I quote every chance I get was Bill James on the thought of a footrace between Gwynn and Puckett: two bowling balls rolling down the lane side-by-side.

actually now that i think about it, someone with good contact skills who draws more walks than ichiro and doesn't hit leadoff might be more likely to win it (e.g. mauer, pedroia) since it's easier to sustain a flukey-high BA over fewer at-bats

wade boggs's 1988 season is so insane, how do you get that many hits and still draw 125 walks

Q: With all the preparation you put in to taking the field do you ever look around the clubhouse and see a teammate and think, if only he did this…

(laughs)

A: When I see Junior I always think he should sleep at home rather than at the clubhouse. I always think if he was able to that he could have easily hit seven hundred homeruns by now.

― A™ machine (sic) (omar little), Thursday, January 7, 2010 7:59 PM (9 months ago) Bookmark

ichiro's a pretty smart guy..

Has anyone ever led the league in hits (or BA) and walks? Hornsby or Cobb, maybe?

Yeah, leading in BA and walks isn't too uncommon (I guess Bonds did it most recently) but anyway ... hits and walks?

Yep, Hornsby did it in 1924 (13.0 WAR!!)

Williams came pretty close a couple of times.

Carl Yastrzemski who did it 1963 apparently.