NL Wild Card Race -- The Home Stretch

Top 2 get playoff spots
       W    L    GB
LA    86   63    --
SFO   84   66   2.5
CHC   82   65   3.0
HOU   83*  67   3.5

* Houston leads Milwaukee 1-0 in the 8th and Milwaukee is a terrible team, so I gave the Astros the win.

Remaining games:
LA: 3 at SD, 3 at SFO, 4 vs. COL, 3 vs. SFO
SFO: 3 vs. HOU, 3 vs. LA, 3 at SD, 3 at LA
CHC: 2 at FLA, 3 at PIT, 3 at NYM, 4 vs. CIN, 3 vs. ATL
HOU: 3 at SFO, 3 at MIL, 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. COL

Wonder if the pundits will realize that the NL West race is more exciting than the AL East since neither LA or SFO is guaranteed a playoff spot in the way that BOS and NYY most likely are.

Based on strength of schedule factors alone, the Cubs are leading the majors and the Giants are 2nd to last.

GO 'STROS!!!!

Unbalanced schedule is teh sux.

I guess I thought you were somehow saying that given strength of schedule, the small bears had the best relative record in the majors. Whereas I think that chart simply says the cubbies had the hardest schedule and nothing about their record relating to such.

I think I put myself into a coma.

       W    L    GB    PO*
LA    86   64    --   82.5%
SFO   85   66   1.5   39.5%
CHC   84   66   2.0   64.2%
HOU   83   68   3.5   10.9%

*PO = Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds

Developments:
Shawn Green is scheduled to announce whether he will play this Fri/Sat at SBC Park against SF due to Yom Kippur. He is one of 3 opposing players who has hit a ball into McCovey Cove.

       W    L    GB    PO*
LA    86   65    --   82.5%
SFO   86   66   0.5   39.5%
CHC   85   66   1.0   64.2%
HOU   83   69   3.5   10.9%

*PO = Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds

       W    L    GB    PO*
LA    86   65    --   69.6%
SFO   86   66   0.5   50.0%
CHC   85   66   1.0   69.7%
HOU   83   69   3.5    5.7%

2004 Cubs vs. Dodgers/Giants

1-2 vs. LA @ Wrigley
1-2 vs. SF @ SBC
1-2 vs. LA @ Dodger Stadium
1-2 vs. SF @ Wrigley
2-4 against both teams

The Cubs have no distinct advantage over either team. I think you'd be better off rooting for the Padres.* But when it comes down to it, they'd better be off facing the Cards in the second round.

Cubs vs. STL

2-2 vs. STL @ Busch
2-1 vs. STL @ Wrigley
2-2 vs. STL @ Wrigley
1-2 vs. STL @ Busch
0-2 vs. STL @ Wrigley
7-9

*Cubs vs. SD

3-0 vs. SD @ Petco
1-2 vs. SD @ Wrigley
4-2

It's interesting to note that although the Cubs have not faced the Braves this year, they have losing records against all of the likely playoff contenders this season.

I guess at this point I'm mostly interested in the Cubs actually getting into the playoffs, rather than worrying about who they'll face once they're there.

? They played them at Atlanta in April, and won two out of three; they'll also be hosting them in Chicago for the final series of the season.

Still playing, 5-3 Strohs.

Come on, mattbot. Didn't you see Hermanson's goatee and sideburns combo?

Berkman!

I was listening over the internet so I didn't get to see it. I'll consider myself lucky.

bonds gets thrown at 2x in one inning and "charges" the mound. kent's plunk was the retaliation.

berkman looked a little lost out there in the outfield, could have had a play on bonds' triple but possibly lost the ball on the warning track. then a few innings later when he catches a Bonds' liner, it knocks him straight back on his tookus (sp?). i mean this is 350' away from the plate and he caught like a pitcher snags a vicious liner.

gagne is getting beat around as a type this with a very cushy lead.

shawn green rumored now to be playing friday, only skipping saturday's game.

Dodgers' slugger Shawn Green will sit out Saturday afternoon's game at San Francisco in observance of Yom Kippur. He'll play Friday night, even though the holiest day on the Jewish calendar starts at sunset Friday.

Hawkins is a goat. The the Giants literally throw away tonight's game against the Padres.

Why did Mohr even catch that ball? It was fairly deep and would have taken a perfect throw to catch the runner, even if he doesn't stumble over the mound.

I figure SF and Chicago will win tomorrow, while Houston is off till Friday and we go into the weekend in a three way dead heat.

The Cubs will catch a bit of a break against the Braves, as I think Jaret Wright is going to miss a start after getting hit by a line drive in his last game.

Angels have a team that could be scary in the playoffs with their hitting and relief pitching. Getting Troy Glaus back has been a bit of a boost.

2004 Playoffs Thread

Key Astro's Career Playoff Batting Avgs:
Bagwell .174
Biggio .130
Berkman .167 (only three games)
Beltran (first playoff appearance)
Kent .277 (5 HR's)

Playoffs are a smaller sample size. (Even for one who's amassed as many Oct. games as Jeetah.) "The pitching is of a higher caliber" cuz the teams are better. Isn't the batting better too? (The drumbeat from the media that pitching is more important in the postseason -- aside from the off days that mean playoff teams can get by with 3 starters and padding their bullpen, I say horseshit.)

>there *is* such a thing as clutch. i mean, if you're hitting .700 with risp, you're clutch.<

For that week / month / summer, you are, sorta. Over a long enough period, you'll return to your career numbers in those situations (which correlate to your "non-clutch" output). Which means you are crediting the player with an *ability* rather than the natural ups and downs of SMALL SAMPLE SIZES.

This isn't the case with clutch statistics.

I didn't say that... Over a career, the best "clutch" batters will be the best batters OVERALL. (I always laugh when announcers gee-whiz over a .280 guy hitting .350 with the bases loaded, which is around the expected bags-full average for a .280 hitter.)

>So the psychology of clutch is disregarded? I would say it's over-emphasized and difficult to measure<

It is *impossible* to measure; how would you isolate it from other factors? Hence it's disregarded as far as objective analysis goes. "HR" and Krukker can yak about it endlessly, though.

Also, Good Mark Prior where have you been?!

$5 sez Dunn goes yard in the 12th. DISCLAIMER: This is not a bet.

ha ha, Cubbie Fans are so cute.

Jose Lima"time", before Friday's 4-2 loss to SF:
"They have to beat us three times in a row in our house? No chance. We'll do it tonight."

Jose Lima"time", after Friday's 4-2 loss to SF:
"No pressure on us. We lost tonight, but we still have two games. We came a long way for this and we're not going to lose it now. The Giants have to beat us every game in this series, and it's not going to happen."

Lima has a 6.00 ERA in 3 starts against SF this year, averaging just 5 innings a start and allowing a .339 batting average to SF.

Shawn Green, after Friday's 4-2 loss:
"We've been thinking about clinching for a while, especially because this team hasn't done it in a while and we've got guys who've never been there before. It was our first goal of the year, and we want to do it tomorrow."

Green is batting .191 with a .296 OBP against SF this year.

When Eric Gagne was told the Giants had won Thursday in San Diego to stave off elimination in the West, he said that was fine because "I want them to see us clinch. The good thing is that they're going to see us clinch against them. It's going to be amazing and a lot of fun, especially for the fans. They'll be able to see us do it against the hated Giants."

Gagne has a 3.24 ERA against SF this year, walking 9 batters (he's walked no more than 2 against any other team this year), and giving up 2 HRs (Bonds and Pedro Feliz).

Today's probables: Brett Tomko vs. Elmer Dessens (his first start as a Dodger because yet another Dodger--Edwin Jackson--has soreness below his shoulder.)

Brett Tomko vs. LA this year: 2-1 w/ 4.56 ERA allowing .231 BA/.285 OBP/.393 SLG. But he's almost a different pitcher for the 2nd half: 7-1 with a 3.27 ERA since the All-Star break.

Beltre has killed Tomko this year (4 HRs in 12 ABs), however Beltre is slumping in the past 4 games (2-15) as the pennant race gets tighter.

Elmer Dessens (2-6, 4.46 ERA) spot-starts today for the Dodgers. As a starter Dessens has a 1-5 record with a 7.68 ERA. Dessens vs. SF this year: 6.75 ERA w/ .360 BA allowed. Dessens made one start against SF this season (when he was with Arizona): 4.0 IP, 6 Hits, 2 ERs (Bonds singled to center and then Alfonzo homered).

Elmer does not match up well against the Giants:
AJ Pierzynski is 8 for 8 (1.000) against him this year, 7 singles and a double.
Barry Bonds is 4 for 12 (.333) with 2 HRs and 7 walks.
Edgardo Alfonzo is 8 for 23 (.343) with 2 HRs and 4 walks.
All in all, 6 of the 8 SF position players are batting over .333 against him.

Jim Tracy put a pitch limit of 75 on Dessens, but with his bullpen overused or crippled this looks to be a high scoring game.

The line is -145 SF over LA.

Tomorrow's preview:

Jason Schmidt vs. either Odalis Perez, Kaz Ishii or TBA.

p.s. Cubs bullpen comes through again today, in helping the other team.

:)

(actually though the prediction is for the whole enchilada, so we'll just have to wait and see)

hermanson did the noble thing by getting the ice-cold adrian beltre for an infield groundout (hitless since wednesday i believe) to end the 8th. But while 2 outs away from putting the Dodgers away: two straight bloops singles and then walking hee seop choi (.227 BA) in 4 straight pitches with the bases loaded, then the "defensive replacement" SS cody ransom booting a routine grounder hit right to him which allows the Dodgers to tie the game is pretty much the Giants' fate. If only they could have got Felix Rodriguez back to somehow to serve up a 85 mph BP fastball right down the middle instead of Wayne Franklin, that would have been delicious.

Keeping with recent trends expect a whole new cast of characters for the 2005 SF Giants.