2004-2005 Free Agent Market Tracker

I don't think that's right re: Carpenter. I think the Cards have an option for 2.5 million + 2 in incentives.

from what i've heard, o's are going to make a big push for maggllio ordonez. i've heard recent talk that they might make a move for troy glaus and put him at first.

their big pitching targets are carl pavano, radke and eric milton.

[MOD NOTE: Since this thread died, I'm going to use this thread to try to dispel any suspicions that the 2004 free agent market is overpriced, which seems to be a common misperception thus far this offseason]

Here is the variance between the average salary for a player's previous contract and his current:

Armando Benitez: $22M/4yrs ($5.5M) : $21M/3yrs ($7M) = +27%
Kris Benson: $13.8M/4yrs ($3.45M): $22.5M/3yrs = ($7.5M) = +117%
Doug Brocail: $.75M/1yr : $1M/1yr = +33%
Vinny Castilla: $8M/2yrs ($4M) : $6.2M/2yrs ($3.1M) = -19%
Juan Castro: $.8M/1yr : $2.05/2yrs ($1.03M) = +28%
Damion Easley: $26.5/4yrs ($6.63M) : $.75M/1yr = -89%*
Christian Guzman: $9M/4yrs ($2.25M) : $16.8M/4yrs ($4.2M) = +87%
Cory Lidle: $7.6M/2yrs ($3.8M) : $6.3M/2yrs ($3.15M) = -17%
Damian Miller: $5.7M/2yrs ($2.85M) : $8.5/3yrs ($2.83M) = -1%
Doug Mirabelli: $.81M/1yr : $3M/2yrs ($1.5M) = +30%
Bengie Molina: $4.25/4yrs ($1.06M) : $3M/1yr. = +182%
Greg Myers: $.8M/1yr : $.7/1yr = -14%
Troy Percival: $16M/2yrs : $12M/2 yrs = -25%
Mike Redmond: $1.05M/1yr : $1.8M/2 yrs ($.9M) = -14%
Dennys Reyes: $.6M/1yr : $.55M/1yr = -8%
Glendon Rusch: $7.25M/2yrs ($3.63M) : $4M/2yrs ($2M) = -45%
Rudy Seanez: $.4M/1yr : .55M/1yr = +38%
Omar Vizquel: $15M/2yrs : $12.25/3 yrs = -45%

Total: $140.31M/39yrs ($3.6M avg) : $122.95M/36yrs ($3.42 avg) = -5% average salary decline over life of contract.

*Easley made $.3M with the Marlins in 04, contract refers to Tigers deal.

Useful links:
http://www.bluemanc.demon.co.uk/baseball/mlbcontracts.htm
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents

That asterisk is quite disingenuous, g! - Damion Easley's out-of-whack contract w/ Detroit is severely skewing the numbers to the benefit of old contracts. You actually substitute that Tigers contract w/ his Marlins salary from last year (a $$$ more indicative of what he contributed, and I'm being generous in that valuation), and you get:

OLD: $100.31M / 36 yrs = $2.78M avg per year
NEW: $122.95M / 36 yrs = $3.42M avg per year

That's what I'm talking about - a $640,000 average difference per year benefitting new deals, which amounts to a 23% hike. That's a bit bonkers.

And this is for a mixed group (spackled w/ a few quality guys) comprised mostly of average players and bottom-feeding mouth-breathers whose experience spitting seeds on major league turf is the only thing separating their dead asses from some inexpensive young turks (182) chomping at the bit for some of that MLB lucre.

I will get you yet David R~!!!!!

*flounces off to accumulate more stat data*

And, actually, I think I forgot to subtract an extra $.5M from the OLD total, so the spread's actually worse than that!

PS - Bwah ha ha.

But may I just want to point out that Easley was signed through 04 on that Tigers deal (he was released by the Tigers which voided the contract).

But listen to the bellyaching about Vizquel, Percival, Castilla... those guys all took a big step down at slightly above average salaries for guys who are above average (Castilla.... uh...), taking those guys out of the equation I don't see anything that really stands out as outrageous.

I think the thing is that Guzman and Vizquel and Percivals salaries may not be unreasonable compared to their previous salaries, they are more just weirdly high for where they currently are (or will be when the contract is up.) So the numbers may not be weird, but the idea that Vizquel is going to be worth $4m in 2 years or Percival $6m next year (or maybe even this year) is the weird part. I think it's hard to argue that a lot of these guys have gotten far more lucrative and long term deals than they necessarily deserved and were expected to get.

did raposa just make a "turk 182" joke?

I don't make jokes; I just find them and pass them off as my own.

And Alex nails the crux of my bitching - it's not that salaries are going up per se (salaries are bound to escalate due to some economic tenets I'm not too smart about), it's that salaries are going up for folks whose performances don't necessarily warrant the upgrade (C. Guzman), or that salaries for underachieving / over-the-peak folks w/ previous bouts of success (V. Castilla, T. Percival) are getting paid just a smidge less than they earned at their highest levels of performance.

This windfall will undoubtedly trickle up to the folks who would already be getting big bucks & allow THEM to join the overpaid throng & earn the ire of the press corps when their team starts to stink - "gee, if the Cowboys weren't paying Bob Anklebiter $25M to be MVP, then maybe they would be able to spend that surplus cash on better players" - while the throng of overpaid middle-classers (CURRENT CHAPTER TREASURER: JUAN CASTRO) escape scott free.

Cory Lidle: $7.6M/2yrs ($3.8M) : $6.3M/2yrs ($3.15M) = -17%

Wow that is a lot of money for not a whole lot! Hard to believe that guy was making that kind of scratch in the first place.

Prior to signing w/ Blue Jays:

2001: 188.0 IP, 170 H, 47 BB, 118 K, 3.59 ERA
2002: 192.0 IP, 191 H, 39 BB, 111 K, 3.89 ERA

Signs 1st 2-year deal:

2003 (w/ Blue Jays): 192.7 IP, 216 H, 60 BB, 112 K, 5.75 ERA
2004 (w/ Reds): 149.0 IP, 170 H, 44 BB, 93 K, 5.32 ERA

Lesson to be learned: giving up more than a hit per innings when you're not a K pitcher is going to make you look like teh suck.

Hint: check out what Lidle did for Philly (aka the team that re-signed him)... also one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB.

Funny thing is, Lidle's HR numbers are pretty consistent (hovering between 17 and 24 each year) throughout all 4 of those years, and that includes time in the pitcher's love shack that is Oakland Alameda County Stadium.

it is actually called the "NetAss", short for Network Associates Coliseum.

"We're Not Selling Jeans Here".

I remember that Lidle pitched ok for Philly down the stretch, but still to make that much cash and be that cruddy a pitcher...wow. It is not like Kris Benson is really worth 7 million bucks a year.

Dick Ruthven could have made some real cash in today's game.