player / team forecasts for 2005

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Nate Silver of BP said in this chat (it's non-premium, right?) that their likely PECOTA-based team forecast for the NL East will be something like this:

Braves 90-72
Phillies 89-73
Marlins 88-74
Mets 84-78
Nats 70-92

He also expects the Cubs' over-the-hill bats to suffer a notable decline, possibly offset by healthier pitching than '04.

The Doc Baseball site looks at NL East rotations' VORP projections (check that Leiter dip):

http://doc-baseball.blogspot.com/2005/02/vorpal-swords-part-ii.html

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 19:15 (twenty years ago)

I could see the Marlins coming up bigger and winning in the mid-90s, but if they don't I definitely think it'll be that close (although I think the Mets have that taint of a perenial underachieving team--hello Orioles!--to me.)

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 19:52 (twenty years ago)

So given the Mets' nearly complete turnover since even 2002, what accounts for the underachieving? The water supply at Shea?

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 20:23 (twenty years ago)

That stupid HOME RUN apple. Also, Fran Healy.

I'm surprised they have the Mets winning only 84, though I guess that speaks to the relative parity within the division, as well as their somewhat suspect pitching staff (cf. Old Man Glavine, Zambrano, Benson, & possibly the bullpen aside from Looper?). The fact that PECOTA has the top 4 teams within 6 games of each other - and the top 3 teams within 2 games! - means Anything Could Happen (TM).

― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 20:27 (twenty years ago)

"So given the Mets' nearly complete turnover since even 2002, what accounts for the underachieving?"

New York presha, bad front office decision making, beats me. Hey I like the Mets. If they can turn it around after 4 years of throwing good money after bad by throwing MORE good money at some good (maybe) I'll be happy. I'd like to see someone besides the Braves win that division now and then. It just kind of struck me as another desperate expensive off-season with high expectations for the Mets.

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 21:22 (twenty years ago)

if the nl east is actually that close, and the braves still pull it out, expect half of philadelphia to keel over from heart failure.

including me.

― the leglo (the leglo), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 22:00 (twenty years ago)

i'm actually kind of curious about the phils projection. does adding kenny lofton and jon lieber while subtracting milton, millwood & glanville make them that more competitive w/in the division?

or is it the lack of a bowa factor?

― jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 22:02 (twenty years ago)

silver mentioned that PECOTA liked lieber

― Jams Murphy (ystrickler), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 22:10 (twenty years ago)

Using teh patented Canseco Eyeball Technique (or CET), I gather that:

swapping Glanville for Lofton: PUSH
swapping Lidle for Milton (or Millwood): PUSH
swapping Lieber for Millwood (or Milton): UPGRADE
having Billy Wagner healthy for most of the season: URGENT AND KEY
getting the same production from David Bell: DOUBTFUL
the chances Bobby Abreu finally gets some love from non-pundits: SLIM AND NONE
flushing Larry Bowa down the chute: TOOK YOU LONG ENOUGH ASSHATS

― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 22:15 (twenty years ago)

i guess what i'm asking is what were the PECOTA team forecasts for 2004?

― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 16 February 2005 22:15 (twenty years ago)

The Reds will swing and miss a whole bunch, but their pitchers won't get many people to swing and miss.

― Earl Nash (earlnash), Thursday, 17 February 2005 01:51 (twenty years ago)

two months pass...

HOPES FOR 2005:

1) Indians in first place (w/ Grady Sizemore taking PT away from Juan Gone)
2) A's Three Amigos doin' the damn thing
3) Yankees do one of two things:
- wise up & do what they did in the 90s
- retrench, take on more age & salary, fatten themselves into obsolescence
4) HEE! SOP! CHOI!
5) Dusty Baker gets shitcanned &/or recalled by His Savior
6) Junior Griffy gets 450-500 ABs (& then traded so Willy Mo gets a shot next year) (OMG YANKEES!)
7) Nationals nationalize Youppi!
8) M-E-T-S!
9) Calvin Pickering: inside-the-park HR
10) Wade Miller becomes the steal of the offseason (& Red Sox World Series blah blah blah)

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 13:30 (twenty years ago)

sort of on the cal pickering tip, da meathook on the basepths made the o's look damn silly last night.

― jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 15:23 (twenty years ago)

MY HOPES FOR 2005:

1.) The Reds get a new owner who gives a crap.
2.) Sean Casey gets on a hot streak and the Reds deal him off to a team for some pitching. This would open to either move the Griff or Dunn to first. Griffey is probably un-tradable, so I would think this would be the best thing to happen.
3.) Kerry Wood get a handle on his pitching. He may be a bit like Schilling in that he might not figure it out until he gets around age 30. Let's not even discuss the Bobby Witt scenario. I sadly feel that Wood will probably be traded sometime in the next year or so as the fans are turning on him.
4.) Mark Prior stays healthy.
5.) The Cubs somehow find a good closer.
6.) The ex-Rockies that are now current Cubs hit like they are Rocky Mountain High.

― Earl Nash (earlnash), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 15:30 (twenty years ago)

6.) The ex-Rockies that are now current Cubs hit like they are Rocky Mountain High.

THE NEIFINATOR

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 18:00 (twenty years ago)

god i love wily mo.

― hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 18:45 (twenty years ago)

"god i love wily mo."

That 498 foot blast Wily Mo hit a couple of days ago was majestic.

― Earl Nash (earlnash), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 19:06 (twenty years ago)

yeah it was awesome. our resident reds fan in the bullpen was going nuts.

― hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 April 2005 19:12 (twenty years ago)

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