2005 Rolling Dumb-Ass Baseball Analysis Thread

"Oh to be 27 again.

It is the ripe ol' age in Fantasy Baseball circles -- when boys become men and, consequently, when they become very rich men in the free-agent market.

Case in point: Carlos Beltran, 2005's 27-year-old deluxe in Fantasy leagues and the prized signee of the Mets to the tune of seven years and $119 million.

It has long been the belief age 27 is the beginning of a player's prime. The best proof is in the dollars.

The dollars Beltran received this offseason came before his 27th birthday. As did the 10-year, $250 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed back in December of 2000, which is still by far the richest contract in major-league history in both total and average dollars. Those two rank Nos. 1a and 1b in CBS SportsLine.com's Preseason Top 300."

Looks like someone has an ESPN job waiting when he quits (via BP):

"You have to hit for average. That's what people get caught up in. There's only one Oakland A's team out there that really cares about on-base percentage. It looks better if you're hitting .300 and getting on base .320, than if you're hitting .260 and getting on base .360."
--Detroit outfielder Bobby Higginson, on how, in bizarro-world, .320 is better than .360 (Detroit News)

"I put myself in a better position to hit by being aggressive. Instead of assuming the pitch is going to be a ball, I'm assuming it's going to be a strike. I've been bad for a little while, so I needed to do something different."
--Higginson

"I'm not waiting around anymore. I'm hacking."
--Higginson

I'd make a comment re: the dood's name, but that'd be low & unnecessary, given the cockcraft apparent in his analyses.

& wow I hope Detroit's hoping that Bobby finds his way onto the DL before he turns into their answer to Mike Greenwell (cf. Greenwell's penchant, whenever I watched the bastard hit for the Sox w/ guys OB, to swing at whatever the first pitch was & pop / ground out).

If Higginson continues to find the occasional apple while rooting through the muck he's the starting LF over Rondell White, who is batting .700.

Illitch is still holding onto the idea Higgy's a fan fave, but he's a holdover poster boy of the second-losingest team in the history of baseball. He's the slowly failing endocrine system of an otherwise healthy middle-aged civil servant that knows his job and is ready to slash up the paperwork.

If the Tigers keep him on, they may as well flush the last 8.8 mil of his contract down the toilet. David, you're right, he'll make hundreds of outs this year, and be little more than a pretty face.

I'm extending your frustration to ownership, but I agree with you about most fantasy columnists being clueless. I know ours can be. Thank goodness the college kids are swinging, and short-season single A isn't too far off...

He's right - until recently (and really, it's still happening) you were going to get paid more with a .300/.320 line than .260/.360. That's even how he phrases it - what team management cares about, what you've got to do to impress them.

Even the middle one, if it's in the same interview, isn't so bad.

I had a pretty interesting convo with him last week about gangsta rap and the practitioners of that sublime art. He's close friends with Joey Crack, and was detailing some of their family excursions.

So, as far as a battle goes, unless any of yall can put me on The Game I'm not going to tempt Grendel and his Terror Squad homeboys.

So if CT is SOL re: MSG, and Time Warner NY is, too, then who's actually getting it? Cablevision folk? Fishermen in Nova Scotia? THE COMMIES?

BEST: The few times I've heard Piazza (on ESPN Home Run Derbys), he's sounded affable & competent. Leiter, too, though he's prone to some traditional baseballisms (& it's a credit to him he was actually able to get some of those out, though, w/ McCarver hogging the mic w/ his sub-Ratherian shtick). But every player's gonna fall back on those, I imagine.

Honestly, give me a ex-player that can form a complete sentence, talk about the game w/out lording his experience over me like he gave me my Y chromosome, and display a sense of humor, and I am happy as all that. Affable southern drawl is optional. Acknowledgement (& not outright dismissal) of non-trad baseball thought is a super-bonus (& shooting for the moon).

If Doug Glanville can work the mic, he should be fine. (and he is reputedly sabermetric-versed)

http://www.nypost.com/sports/22455.htm

Al Leiter did a pretty good job in the playoffs two years ago, as he provided some actual insight into pitching. He might make a pretty good one.

I thought Steve Stone was a pretty good color commentator. He isn't a great commentator, but who is? At least Stone some times stays a bit quiet and lets the game tell the story, unlike some of these guys that roll from line to line constantly back pedalling on what they said two innings beforehand. Tony Gwynn provides dome insight into hitting, but his voice is squeaky and not the best for broadcasting.

also, kruk of all people implied that pitchers aren't athletes.

Comparing the Young & Old
A few times in 2005 I've remarked in some forum, whether it was on the radio or TV or in print, that Miguel Cabrera of the Marlins is going to end up like Manny Ramirez. Words are just words, though, and I admit sometimes we can get a little crazy on comparisons. But I really DO think Cabrera is that good. Here are a few pairs of players who look a lot alike to me and plenty of others who make their living projecting statistics. Regular readers/listeners are aware of these old/young comparisons. Now let's back 'em up.

Let's start with Manny and Miguel. Pair of home run hitting corner outfielders who put up monster numbers, seem to do it with relative ease, and don't say much on or off the field. They just do their jobs and mash the ball. Say what you will about Ramirez, but he has 18 postseason homers, 390 regular season ones, and he's on his way to the Hall of Fame. He's putting up numbers like Willie McCovey and Rocky Colavito at a similar age. And he's not slowing down.

Cabrera will be 22 in a month; Manny is 11 years older.

-In 2004, Manny went 43-130-.308. Miguel went 33-112-.294. Since it was Cabrera's first full season, we can't compare prior seasons.

-After the All-Star break in 2004, Manny went 17-53-.264. Miguel went 13-53-.292.

Fantasy owners don't want to hear the excuse of tough ballparks, but Cabrera is not far away from Ramirez now. Considering the age difference and what Manny was doing when he was this age, I'd say Cabrera is well on his way. Ramirez didn't have his first monster season until age 26. Cabrera will have that season now, probably get close to 40 homers. Draft Manny late in round 1, but Cabrera can deliver round 2 numbers.

What about at third base, where Scott Rolen is the NL's best, and David Wright looks like the future? I've been calling Wright the future Rolen, but do we have any basis to make that remark? Well, sometimes you have to look past pure stats. Wright has played all of 69 games of major league ball, but in his case I also see intangibles. He's mature. He runs. He's fields well. He just looks like a veteran out there. His minor league numbers didn't blossom until late in 2003, when he was a prospect, but not a top one. Now? He's going to play every day.

Wright is 22. Rolen is just about 30.

-In 2004, after the break, Rolen went 16-44-.276. Wright went 14-40-.293. I just feel something here, and Wright's going to be a star ... now.

Final comparison here is starting pitchers Greg Maddux and Zack Greinke. Now I haven't been real high on Greinke, mainly because I do my best to avoid young starting pitching, and Greinke doesn't only have that working against him, but he's on a 100-loss team. But we often hear these names intertwined, so let's investigate.

-In 2004, Maddux, now a 300-game winner and 38 years old, went 16-11 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. After the break he was better, 9-4 with a 3.48.

-In 2004, Greinke, in his first MLB action and 21 years old, went 8-11 with a 3.97 and 1.17. After the break he did much of his work, going 7-5 with a 4.04.

The reason for this comparison is that Greinke is an oddity. Like Maddux, he doesn't get the job done by overpowering hitters. They call it guile in the business. Can Greinke be the next Maddux? Well, for these purposes, let's discuss Greinke's immediate future, and leave out the fact Kansas City is not likely to give him run support. If Greinke continues to keep that ERA under 4, won't he be a big winner? He's had no sign of arm troubles - like Maddux, who incidentally struggled until his third year in the league. Greinke has great command and doesn't waste time walking hitters. But it's not often you see a guy allow 26 home runs in 145 innings. That rate will have to improve. But based on his walk rate, he has a nice future.

I'd say Greinke can be a 15-game winner this season. Every season there are players who manage to win games even when their teams don't. A pair of Padres won 15 games last season. Rodrigo Lopez won 14. And back in 2002, Paul Byrd won 18 games for the Royals, while the team went 62-100. Greinke is being drafted 65th among all pitchers, right where Jeff Weaver, Kevin Brown, Dontrelle Willis and Chris Carpenter are going. Nothing wrong with that. Seems like fantasy owners are thinking Greinke's made it already.

Miller points out last night that the Chisox were among the league leaders in scoring their runs on homers (40%+) along with Texas, Boston and NYY. Flat Earth Joe flinches and says "That's a misleading statistic. Those other teams don't have the option of manufacturing runs; the White Sox do."

Miller: "You're right. They're not a one-dimensional offense."

They ARE, Blanche. Has anyone since Cosell refrained from kissing ex-jock ass once in awhile?

This is really bad writing even for this guy.

(also tracer needs to hear Miller's Vin Scully impersonation.)

And claiming that Randy Johnson in the '01 series was just following Schilling's lead, or whatever the fuck he's saying.

Skip Bayless, on the other hand, has no redeeming qualities. Everyone I know hates him - and not in an iconoclastic 'hate him so much I have to read' way. He's not a strong writer, he's fairly stupid (based on his ability to craft an argument), he usually manages to find the most ignorant stance possible and defend it to the death, his voice makes your skin crawl. God almighty, how the fuck does the man keep getting jobs - hell, he keeps moving up in the world. Dallas to the Mercury-News to ESPN.

No, the most opportune time would be while facing, say, Jeff Suppan.

Two years late, but this cracked-out analysis of the 2003 World Series is worth your time.

Let’s remember that the Florida Marlins, whom just beat out the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series, are a collection of players that were acquired indirectly from hoards of money that Florida management threw at high-priced free agents, as compared to the New York Yankees, a team built through its farm system.

You'll read many stories in the news by supposed baseball 'experts' who tout the difference in organizational salaries between the two teams, incorrectly depicting the Marlins as the heros of the 'little guy'. These arguments are stilted and just plain wrong.

He's so blinded by the Yankee way of life that he thinks the Marlins have a DH.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-sphey214478302oct21,0,6355867.column?

All the hits: "antithesis of the cookie-cutter Moneyball manager who goes by the stats," "squeeze," "aren't run by a computer"...

Oh my, what comedic timing.

Don't let the trophy hit you on the way out, Theo
By Ian O'Connor USA TODAY
11/2/2005 7:23:00 PM

Ian O'Connor
USA TODAY

Theo Epstein, 31-year-old executive, is acting half his age. He is walking away from his dream job and dream salary and dream season because his mentor stopped kissing his ring for five minutes, leaving poor Theo to pick up his ball and storm all the way home.

Boy wonder, big blunder. After Brian Cashman zigged and zagged his way through the Yankee power structure and wisely kept a gig he knows will be the best he'll ever have, Epstein reached for a pacifier and wailed his way out the Fenway Park door.

Good riddance, Red Sox fans should shout. Thanks for the historic parade. Don't let the trophy hit you on the way out.

At his bizarre and dishonest news conference Wednesday, Epstein revealed himself for what he is: a baby. A kid who needs to grow up. Cashman can weather year after year of George Steinbrenner's storms, fight off all the owner's back-room operatives, and end up with a lavish contract extension and home-field advantage for business once conducted in a hostile Tampa environment.

Epstein? Larry Lucchino, his baseball elder, suddenly decides to bounce a ball off Theo's forehead, Great Santini style, and the kid goes down faster than the Red Sox did in the first round.

If this is how Epstein was planning to respond when times got tough, really tough, Boston fans should realize they'll be better off without him.

Epstein wore a gorilla suit the other day to put the slip on reporters, but he ended up making a monkey out of himself. He said his rejection of a three-year, $4.5 million extension offer had nothing to do with a suspected Lucchino role in a Boston Globe column that painted Epstein in unflattering shades.

He said there was no power struggle. No chain-of-command issues. No feelings of burnout. Epstein, the local boy made great, the one who shaped a team that ended an 86-year drought, simply said he could no longer "put my whole heart and soul into it."

Epstein refused to identify why, refused to get specific, and this was an immature and irresponsible way to leave his hometown. Boston adored him. Made him the prince of the city. Offered him a free pass from here to eternity for slaying an October legion of demons and doubts.

The city deserved better. Boston deserved plenty more than Epstein showing up Wednesday against a backdrop littered with Red Sox and Dunkin' Donuts logos, showing up in an open-collared, powder blue shirt that wouldn't have made David Stern's grade, and telling a depressed village of broken-hearted admirers that he was bailing for, well, no good reason.

Epstein allowed that there were "complexities" and "ups and downs" in his relationship with Lucchino, the executive who discovered him and made him an intern. But Epstein maintained, "Larry and I like each other."

Lucchino likes Epstein so much he forgot to attend his news conference, an announcement attended by John Henry, the principal owner, and an overflow chorus of computer geeks who served as blind apostles of Epstein's faith.

"You have to believe in the people you work with," the departing GM would say. "You have to believe in the whole organization."

It was his way of saying he didn't believe in Lucchino. It was Epstein's one candid-camera moment of the day.

"Theo is a remarkable young man," Henry said.

He's a quitter, too.

Speaking in whispers and shedding a few tears over what he called "a great, great loss," Henry came across as a hopelessly detached, charisma-free leader, an owner incapable of stopping Epstein from making an obvious career mistake. Henry's body language suggested weakness and indecision, everything Steinbrenner doesn't stand for.

"I hold myself wholly responsible," Henry said. "Maybe I'm not fit to be the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox. ... Never in my wildest dreams did I think this would ever happen. ... Did I blow it? Yeah, I feel that way."

Epstein didn't just leave Henry; he left Henry after his chief aide, Josh Byrnes, took the GM job in Arizona. Maybe the Diamondbacks will get suckered as well. The scorecard on these ridiculously young preppies who are taking over baseball, one baby step at a time, is starting to look spotty: Paul DePodesta couldn't hack it in L.A., and his buddy couldn't hack it in Boston.

"It's the right decision to leave the organization," Epstein said.

Not if that decision was based on Lucchino's ego. Every franchise has a Lucchino, a boardroom player, a suit who knows how to work the field. And proteges worldwide end up getting squeezed by insecure mentors who ultimately decide they've taught their students too well.

Human nature is what it is.

Epstein said last year's World Series title freed him to make this decision, which makes no sense. That championship gave him a free pass to rule in Boston forever.

Wednesday, the kid threw that ticket in the trash. When Epstein grows up, he'll regret the day he acted half his age.

****

Ian O'Connor also writes for The (Westchester County, N.Y.) Journal News

Also:

The scorecard on these ridiculously young preppies who are taking over baseball, one baby step at a time, is starting to look spotty: Paul DePodesta couldn't hack it in L.A., and his buddy couldn't hack it in Boston.

DePo didn't really have a choice, did he? But, yeah, why bother getting your story straight? Human nature is what it is.

Despite his comment about Cashman, if he walked from the Yankees, saying he was fed up with being the owners' whipping boy, I'd have a hard time believing that O'Connor would write anything ressembling this garbage.

Jay Jaffe: Welcome, everybody, to my very first BP Chat. I'm sitting here with a huge smile on my face from having seen a team even better than the World Champion White Sox last night, Brighton, England's rocktronic supestars, the Go! Team. Imagine an inner city pep squad fronting Sonic Youth playing cartoon superhero theme music and you're about there. I don't think Ozzie's squad matches up very well against that.

(I like Go! Team, but I haven't seen them in concert yet)

How inspiring -- and shocking -- it was to see Podsednik drive Astros' closer Brad Lidge's 96-mph fastball over the right-center field fence and into White Sox lore. His 408-foot blast gave Chicago a 2-0 lead over Houston, and helped the Sox sweep the Astros for their first championship in 88 years. As Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver said after the homer, "These things aren't supposed to happen."

It wouldn't have happened if the White Sox hadn't traded Carlos Lee's power for Podsednik's speed last December, a move Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti opined was like "trading mashers for midgets." In this case, the midget (though Podsednik is 6-feet) won out.

Podsednik proved that smaller, tenacious, fundamentally sound ballplayers are just as exciting and valuable as sluggers, and for that he should be recognized as Sportsman of the Year. For too long, our fascination with the long ball has encouraged guys to become bigger and stronger, and to ignore other aspects of the game. With a crackdown on steroids this season, I renewed my appreciation for little rascals such as Podsednik, the Cardinals' David Eckstein and the Angels' Chone Figgins. All three led their respective teams to the playoffs while combining for 16 homers during the regular season.

Podsednik flourished under manager Ozzie Guillen's small ball approach. From the leadoff spot, Podsednik batted .290 and stole 59 bases in 129 games. Chicago went 81-48 when he played, and 18-15 when he didn't.

Which one will play Alfalfa?

Wait, Jayson Stark didn't write this column?