The Scrappy Scrap-Irons (ASTROTHREAD 2005)

Brad Lidge's ERA will not reach 1.00 all season.

And FYI: Brandon Backe is hitting .600 after tonight's start.

I don't think I ever doubted Lidge, I was just in favor of giving Dotel more time as closer before passing judgement on his ability to do that job.

I will admit that Lidge far exceeded any expectations I had of him going into last year. I thought he would be good, but not the filthy, durable reliever he was down the stretch and in the playoffs last year.

Latest I've heard is 10 days to 2 weeks.

After giving up a home run in a third of an inning tonight (which I was on hand to witness), Brad Lidge's ERA stands at 1.04.

Mulder has pitched 10 innings so far on 101 pitches.

WORLD ENDS

The general perception on local talk radio and fan message boards is the Astros are off to a poor start and just don't have the offensive firepower to compete with the Cardinals for the division. But after this weekend, it is apparent to me that this is only true on the road. Allow me to go Rob Neyer on your ass and insert some stats in the middle of a paragraph

G W L RS RA
Home 12 9 3 56 38
Road 11 1 10 37 45

Now, consider that 5 of the 10 road losses were of the one-run variety. It seems to me that the Astros have suffered a disproportionate amount of bad luck so far, especially in their three, count 'em THREE, 1-0 extra-inning losses.

The upshoot of all this is the overwhelming assumption that if the Astros don't turn things around quickly that Roger Clemens is going to demand a trade. Fueling this is the mind-bending coincidence that all three of the aforementioned 1-0 extra-inning losses occured in games that Clemens started. I think at this point it's ridiculous that Clemens would want to finish the season any place other than Houston. After play today, the Astros are 5 games back of the Cardinals. Fans seem to forget that the team was even further out of the Wild Card in late August last year. Why do they think Roger would throw in the towel on the season already after what happened last year?

I'm not saying that I think the Astros are definitely going to win the NL Central this year, but I think their going to be in, at least for the WC, till the end. If that's true, then the Rocket is going nowhere. I guess my point is: it's a long damn season and we're just barely started, so calm the fuck down, Astro fans.

Anyway, just wanted to do a little bragging about the weekend series:

Rookie centerfielder Willie Taveras threw out a runner at the plate in each of the three games.

Astros laid seven runs on Mark Prior in the fifth inning today, all coming after two out, the first four coming on a Mike Lamb grand slam on an 0-2 pitch.

Astros beat Prior and Wood on back-to-back days (granted, Wood did leave the game with an injury). I wonder how many teams will do that this year.

Home: 9 wins, 3 losses, 56 RS, 38 RA
Road: 1 win, 10 losses, 37 RS, 45 RA

bb - who's going to get the short end of the stick when Berkman returns?

Well, the easy answer is that Luke Scott will get sent down, which is fine because he's been completely overmatched by major league pitching after having a phenomenal spring. He's got nothing to be ashamed of though, considering he jumped from Double-A to the Majors, so he's better off getting ABs every day in Triple-A.

The tougher question is who is going to sit when Berkman returns. Scott got benched about two weeks ago and in recent days Mike Lamb has been filling the left field slot. Lamb really sparked the offense over the weekend (8 of his 11 hits this year are for extra-bases!). So when Berkman returns, one likely scenario is that Lamb will move back to third and platoon with Morgan Ensberg. That leaves an outfield alignment of Berkman-Taveras-Lane, which should be strong offensive unit.

Why do the Stros even play Ensberg? He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't hit for power and I have never heard about him being a phenom in the field. SS, 3b and C have been black holes in the Astros lineup for a few years.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/coaches.jsp?c_id=chc

I still haven't seen the Cubs play this year, which is pretty sad considering it is nearly mid May.

This is getting comical. They are 1-14 on the road so far.

And they did score two runs in the top of the first in Thursdays game, only to see a three-run Adam LaRoche homer in the bottom of the 1st immediately erase that lead.

Coincidentally, this has happened right when Berkman came off the DL, which means he can take over the first base job (he played there in college), which should be easier on his surgically repaired knee than the outfield would be.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20050510&content_id=1044979&vkey=pr_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

“When I'm running, it looks like first base is running from me.”

-- Houston Astros pitcher Roger Clemens, on the joys of hitting.

Well it's nearly 4x that right now... Tonight's performance included 2BBs, 2 Wild Pitches, and a bases loaded single. No strikeouts to be found (believe me, I looked).

Any reports on what's troubling him?

Only pooch-screwing I remember is a fastball hung over the plate that D-Lee should have crushed, but he got underneath it and ended up fouling it off.

But what does it fucking matter. That Astros are an out away from getting shut out for the eighth fucking time this season.

Oh wait, it's over now. Shit.

Seeya in late July, Oswalt!

I got in my car this morning and the local sports-talk station was doing a flash that went something like this:

Mets beat the Astros 3-1 last night with Pedro Martinez holding the Astros to only 2 hits. Here's Pedro talking about what it's like to throw a complete game in front of the home crowd: "All your wildest dreams will come true."

Yes, the quote from Pedro was the actual soundbite from Napolean Dynamite.

I know that sounds crazy to everybody, but with the pitching they've been getting, one more bat just might be enough to make this team a contender, especially since Berkman looks to be rounding back into form after his knee surgery.

I keep reading in the national media that the Astros should trade pitching for some young prospects. So far I seen the names of Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Backe, Andy Pettitte, and Brad Lidge all come up in trade rumors. Now my question is, since when was trading away pitching for hitting a good strategy for rebuilding a team? To me, the best thing for the organization to do now is keep the pitching staff together, let the young hitters they have play this season, then add a big bat via free agency in the off season. As bad as the offense has been this season, I don't think they are too far off from being a competitive club. The pitching staff is already in place and that's usually the hardest part of a club to assemble.

I can't see Dunn or Oswalt leaving anytime soon, but who knows.

The Astros should try and get Austin Kearns away from the Reds for a prospect. He is down at AAA to get his swing back and the fact that with the Griff healthy and the rise of Wily Mo there isn't a place for him to play.

Until the past three or four games, Jason Lane had been coming around at the plate.

red sox have stuff to deal the yanks are fools if they deal anything they have worth dealing at, this point.

And for some reason, I'm not allowed to stand while Brad Lidge warms up for the 9th. Some jerk-ass usher told me to sit down.

They were $10 tix, about midway up the upper deck in left field.

Are you in DFW now? Come on down, we'll go to a game.

Speaking of which, how do you like the one in Arlington?

One name that has been popping up has been Matt Lawton. He could probably be had for something less than a top-line prospect and would provide some pop in left field. Chris Burke has been really good in that slot lately, but just hasn't shown any power yet.

The crowd was the fourth largest in MMP history, and it was completely into the game. This might have been the most intense game I've ever been to outside of playoff games. And for good reason: with a win tonight the Astros moved into a tie for the Wild-Card lead. That's right non-believers, the team that was 15-30 in May is now 55-47. And they're getting big contributions throughout the roster. Tonight it was Brad Ausmus with a squeeze bunt in the 7th to tie it and a drive in the right-center gap to drive in the game-winner in the 9th. Also, Ezequiel Astacio and his 8+ ERA get called back from AAA to face Pedro and he goes six innings, giving up four hits and one run.

Go 'Stros!!!

They'll go all the way if they get more calls like that Cameron "drop" gift, what bullshit.

Speaking of Willy T, the following if from a Baseball Prospectus article about the Astros that used quite a bit of cyber-ink to tell us something we all knew already: The Astros aren't as good offensively this year as they were last. What I didn't understand was that pointed at Willy as one of the prime suspects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4326

SportsTicker recently fronted the ESPN.com Houston Astros page with a note pointing out that CF Willy Taveras was leading all ML rookies in hits, batting average, games, singles, infield hits, bunt singles, and steals. It sounds nice, but a closer look shows that Taveras' style leaves a lot to be desired. He's a below average hitter (-0.049 MLVr), a below average hitter for his position (-0.023 PMLVr) and barely rates out as better than replacement level. The batting average is nice, and much attention should be paid to his superior defense, but the lack of power, the mediocre on-base percentage for a top of the lineup hitter, and the 74/17 SO to BB ratio all raise serious questions about his future potential. Put a simpler way: for all of the accomplishments that SportsTicker heralds, Taveras has about half the VORP of Clint Barmes in nearly twice the plate appearances.

While Astros fans all wish Willy would walk a little (ok, maybe even a lot) more, this assessment seems fairly harsh considering the guy his hitting around .300 and is top 5 in the league in stolen bases, as a rookie. Especially when you consider his value at the minimum salary compared with the numbers the guy he replaced in center is putting up with his new contract.

Also, Willy does not play "superior defense". He gets to a lot of balls on pure speed, but does not read balls well at all. On several occasions this year, ball have gotten over his head or past him because of bad jumps or turning the wrong way. His defensive stats may look good, but he does get replaced late in games sometimes by Eric Bruntlett. Makes me wonder if this writer has even watched the Astros play this year.

And I imagine his defensive stats are sexed up because of the pure speed you mention. And given his age, he could probably be taught how to better read balls off the bat and become that much more valuable in the field.

Hey, it's the new Juan Pierre!

And honestly, for what the Astros want him to do (get on base, occupy pitchers' attention, steal bases) the slg% is not so much of a detriment. It does come into play when bottom-of-the-order guys get on base and Willy has to drive them in. Early in the season he was atrocious in these situations, but has come through a few times lately.

Concerning, the Prospectus paragragh I posted above, this may be a case where the writer sees the current favorite for NL ROY is not very highly rated according to VoRP, so he tries to make a case against him because he know that most voters consider VoRP to be a SABR-clique Voo-doo number.

As for the defense issue: I think BP (and most statheads) are upfront about the unreliability of fielding statistics, and the discrepancy between the empirical evidence and statistical evidence boldbury points out re: Willy T is probably more evidence of this.

Willy is 31-for-42. 74%

Nolan Ryan also had a hard luck season with Houston that reminds me to what Clemens is going through this year. Check out Ryan's stats for 1987, where he led the NL in ERA, SO to Walks, Hits Allowed per 9 IP and K's and yet finished 8-16.

And congratulations to Earl for being the 100th poster in this thread!

Jeff Bagwell starts his rehab at Double-A Corpus Christi on Tuesday. He'll be activated over the weekend and will serve as an extra bat. Brandon Backe, who will make two starts, will join him there. Good times at Whataburger Field.

Whataburger is a fast food chain that started in Corpus Christi back in the '50s. Their breakfast taquitos are the shiznit.

http://www.whataburger.com/

Nope - never seen a Whateverburger in Ontario. We also don't have Whitecastle, Jack In the Box or Big Boy.

Round Rock Express (Houston AAA): Dell Diamand
Frisco Rough Riders (Texas AA): Dr. Pepper/7-Up Ballpark

And the Dallas MLS team just built a new stadium in Frisco: Pizza Hut Stadium.

"...the offense came through, which was fucki..frickin' huge."

http://users4.ev1.net/~mamolina/astros/LOLidge.avi

-- Thermo Thinwall (tupac.chopr...), September 1st, 2005 1:14 AM. (Thermo Thinwall)

I think I need boldbury's help on this one... uh... Frisco Stadium?

Sorry.

you're right! they didn't make any big moves!

When the series gets to Houston, I hope Poppy and Bar's driver takes them to the Astrodome.